Day 24 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Finally B) After 7 days of the "Beer"...........I mean Death Ridge we have a great pattern coming up. Have picked up Andy from DFW Airport and amazingly got to Dodge City (Kansas) to be centred between the 2 big areas for tomorrow, will make a decision in the morning for Wyoming or the Panhandles of Texas, but at last it looks like a Severe end to May and With Thursday looking like the Big day this should be the warm up event.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1258 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2008

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH

PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE OMEGA BLOCK WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH

THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING

EVOLVING UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN THE LOW

LEVELS...PRIMARY LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SEWD FROM CNTRL

OR ERN WY INTO ERN CO. AS THIS OCCURS...BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY

QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS CNTRL TX WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM

FRONT...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE ERN TX

PNHDL INTO SRN OK BY EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN

CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH CNTRL LA AND THEN EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO

NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER. FINALLY...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY

WELL DEFINED OVER WRN TX TODAY WITH THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTING THE

WARM FRONT OVER NWRN TX OR THE SERN TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL PLAINS...

STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW E OF SURFACE LOW WILL AID IN THE NWWD

RETURN OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS

INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER KS...AND MID/UPPER 40S INTO CNTRL/ERN

WY. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP

MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDING ON ERN PERIPHERY OF EVOLVING UPPER

LOW...CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG INVOF WARM

FRONT/LEE TROUGH.

SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW AND INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW

TO THE N OF IT WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE

AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL/ERN WY WITH STORMS PROGRESSIVELY BUILDING SWD

INTO NERN CO. DESPITE LARGELY MERIDIONAL MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND

FIELDS...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO THE N OF SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT

IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WITH

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY

DAMAGING WINDS.

A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER

TONIGHT FROM WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY AS

WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ARE ENHANCED TO THE N OF RETREATING WARM

FRONT AND ALONG STRENGTHENING/EXPANDING LLJ AXIS. SOME OF THE MORE

INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...SRN PLAINS...

AIR MASS E OF DRYLINE AND ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO

BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO

1000-2000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY

STRONG /0-6 KM SHEAR AOB 30-35 KT/...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE

FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY LARGE...NAMELY ALONG WARM FRONT. ANY

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER A STORM CAN

DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED. GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...ONLY LOW

SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM.

Paul S

[dogs32]

LOOKS GOOD..I would go for the plains..beautiful part of the world...Anyway Im no expert Im sure you guys will make the right decision..goodluck

[Paul Sherman]

Todays risk as thought has been extended further South to just West of our position here at Dodge City, so most of the hard work with regards to driving has now been done.

Also the next seven days look Unreal, have we a lucky mascot in our ranks with Andy

Paul S

[grab my graupel]

Also the next seven days look Unreal, have we a lucky mascot in our ranks with Andy

Paul S

Wonderful news Paul

You guys must be exhausted with some of the distances you have driven..I will keep my fingers crossed for a

spectular show, and the best of the trip Yet.

Brian

[Tom Lynch]

Todays risk as thought has been extended further South to just West of our position here at Dodge City, so most of the hard work with regards to driving has now been done.

Also the next seven days look Unreal, have we a lucky mascot in our ranks with Andy

Paul S

Hi Paul

Between a rock and a hard place at the moment. Have the models changed significantly over night? Dave was still looking at his original target area. Somewhere around Chyenne. That is about a two hours drive north west of our location. Will keep you posted when I get an update.

Tom

[Stu]

I am going to target Chyenne and then ether move North of West later int the day

[Roger J Smith]

Probably the best risk for severe storms today would be just south of a line from Limon CO east to about Scott City KS.

I would not rule out other activity further north in WY but the set-up includes a fairly moist air mass for the region heading north out of NM, so the environment will become highly unstable with the developing hot air mass not able to make much penetration north of the line I specified due to the anchoring effect of the old front which has reached east TX and slants back to northwest into Colorado towards developing strong low pressure.

Tomorrow the action should involve more of a dry line with more Gulf moisture also streaming north into KS and OK, the action should shift only slightly towards Hill City KS.

[Julie Cameron]

nice to hear from u 2nite ian glad you are all havin great time, great storms arriving so it seems (as they are here) but im sure eveything will b fine u lot stay safe and enjoy, ian is there something you want to tell me about the night you (shared a room with a cowboy) or is it something you dont want to discuss with your mum!!!!!!!

only joking guys have a great time an paul after seeing the singing dont give up your day job will you? your poor children having to see that an the fact their friends might have, oh no!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! how can they ever go to school again

ian talk to me

ian i know this is not weather and i apolagise to every one else but man u are i-0 up at the moment dad is taping it for you sorry guys i know it is only football and not tornados

[John Hanrahan]

Looks like a fantastic setup Paul. I'll be watching closely.

Julie, doesn't matter that your post isn't weather realted. The forum needs to know what that young fella is up to.

Having spent 13 days with the lad I can assure you that he is a model of a human being. He never swears, resects all animal and plant life, doesn't drink (in the states anyway) and is a mean GPS operator.

He also hates AbbA with a passion.

I would be very surprised if that man has any regrets for anything he's done in his life. Ever!

[ian cameron]

Paul S On Ians Account

We are sat on a dirt track just west of Burlington and have a Developing Supercell literally 15 miles in front of us, explosive Updraughts and this is going to move just North of us, the 1st cell of the day

Paul S

[Roger J Smith]

If you recall that event over Jetmore KS over a week ago, something similar is indicated here from J-field analysis, STRONG peak of energy at 23z to 01z should create a fast-moving bow echo type event moving ESE then SE into Kansas, likely to track across Scott City then just north of Garden City towards Dodge City.

[Julie Cameron]

Looks like a fantastic setup Paul. I'll be watching closely.

Julie, doesn't matter that your post isn't weather realted. The forum needs to know what that young fella is up to.

Having spent 13 days with the lad I can assure you that he is a model of a human being. He never swears, resects all animal and plant life, doesn't drink (in the states anyway) and is a mean GPS operator.

He also hates AbbA with a passion.

I would be very surprised if that man has any regrets for anything he's done in his life. Ever!

[Julie Cameron]

maybe my son has been cloned because i think we are talking about two VERY differnt people at this point in time it is into extra time and i have decided the best option is to go to bed

ian does this this mean i can throw out all you abba cds i didnt think you liked them anyway you only went to see mama mia 7 seven times because you felt sorry for them and christ i dont know!!!!!! youve only spwent 13 days with him you should try 30 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! love you really ian have a great time

ian it has gone into penalties john terry just missed the tension is unbearale

i must apoligise again guys this is football related!!!!!! ian we lost on penalties what can i say

[Rustynailer]

"A FEW LONGER-LIVED STRONG TORNADOES"

Sounds pretty cool having that on a weather forecast

Quite a few chasers live streaming near Wray CO at the minute, no tornado yet I don't think, but it must be promising.

Edited May 21, 2008 by Rustynailer

[Cookie]

lets hope you guys get some decent action!!

[Cookie]

maybe my son has been cloned because i think we are talking about two VERY differnt people at this point in time it is into extra time and i have decided the best option is to go to bed

ian does this this mean i can throw out all you abba cds i didnt think you liked them anyway you only went to see mama mia 7 seven times because you felt sorry for them and christ i dont know!!!!!! youve only spwent 13 days with him you should try 30 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! love you really ian have a great time

ian it has gone into penalties john terry just missed the tension is unbearale

i must apoligise again guys this is football related!!!!!! ian we lost on penalties what can i say

[ian cameron]

we have had fun today chasing a few cells they were never going to produce tornados so was able to core punch without worrying to much currently in north east CO getting ready to punch a few more cores

Ian

[ian cameron]

we are just about to core punch a cell with three areas of rotation on barons the cell is in kit carson county near the I70

Ian

[Roger J Smith]

Glad to hear you're there, that one looks quite strong on the radar here ... and that J-field energy peak I mentioned is at 0130z (about 37 min from now) ... after that, I think these storms may rapidly fan out into w KS even though cell motion has been northeast, the activity zone will shift east overnight.

[ian cameron]

we are sitting just north of the I70 watching a meso form and we can see it starting to rotate as i type thers no markers on barons but theres no mistaking what where watching will keep you all posted

[ian cameron]

we stopped to watch the cell on 24 just by seibert and the storm forms a meso just above our heads we thought we were going to be tornado damage thankfuly it passes over we start to head east to get a good vantige point and just before we got to Vona we spotted a tornado on the ground out of the back of the car me and Paul saw it I frantickly tried to get a shot off with my camara but the light was not good enough for the shot we will check but were not sure we then sat and watched it try and produce another we then dashed east trying to outrun the updraft and Paul has bagged some amazing lightning bolts we hope to post up te pictures soon we will continue to watch the lightning show for a while then head further east or the night what an amazing days chasing i'm sure the guys will post once we get a base camp for the night

Ian

[Paul Sherman]

Phew

Knackered and what a Chase day it turned out to be, started slowly but we got to within 20 miles of Dryline Initiation, followed LP Supercells, all looked crap until 6pm when we went after the Kit Carson Cell, I will leave it up to Andy to describe today in the next post but suffice to say he is absolutely in awe of what we saw today, always Chase a Slight risk because you never know what will happen, today proves that.

Paul S