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June CET


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Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK

16.1C Please :)

Edited by Tornado Alley
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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

The first half of the month looks like coming in around 15 something C, say 15.2C allowing for some increasing warmth week 2. This is the low range delimeter.

Beyond model range looks very warm, and a warmer second half is a very strong candidate for me. June is a warming month so a strong pressumption on very much above average which will 'protect' the early relative warmth. The question is, just how warm will the second half be ?

May's anomaly is likely to be somewhare around the +2 / +2.5C mark and this I think is a fair outer marker for the upper limit. Anologues for the SSTA suggest a +1C anomaly.

So, 15.2 C the low range, 16.9C the top range. Mid point 16.1C and my call.

16.1 C please

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Well looks like a good start to my June averageness and potential washout scenario. I see no change in my initial LRF punt and expect much disappointment this month. Not until maybe 2nd week of July will a protracted dry/very warm spell IMO...So week 1 of summer generally down the pan.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Yes, it's like golf where we say, no shot displeases everyone.

I'm looking at this air mass over the UK from a vast distance and thinking, if it were November, it would fog up and stay foggy for weeks, but as it's June, it should be heavy dew and fog every morning, hazy sunshine or low cloud every afternoon, and little mesoscale thunderstorm events that are hard to predict more than a day in advance.

In other words, typical New Brunswick weather.

Should stay resolutely a degree above average though, this air never came from anywhere so it doesn't know how to be cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Should stay resolutely a degree above average though, this air never came from anywhere so it doesn't know how to be cold.

Roger

Or very warm for that matter

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Eddie, or somebody, have a look at post number one here, the coldest June, surely not 1645 ?? CET didn't start until 1659.

I remember June 1972 which was what, 11.9, as being cold enough to, well you know ... I was over there on holiday the whole month (good timing, RJ) and most of my relatives had the loo out across the back lane from the kitchen in those days (yes it's true, I can remember things that long ago that aren't weather events) ... and yours truly just about died of hypothermia whilst coming in from the pub one evening, I recall that it was raining, perhaps 8 C and there was a strongish north wind howling through the passageway.

That month seems a little freakish to me when I look at the maps, over on this side there was Hurricane Agnes which followed a path unlike any other June tropical storm and was associated with 20 inches of rain in one day in parts of PA and NY, and daytime highs of 10 C at Toronto on like the 22nd I believe it was -- again, freakishly cold, the old record max from the LIA was probably 16 C.

What was causing all that, do you suppose?

I'm saying too much fishing for plankton by killer whales. Just a guess. Actually it was mountains of sea ice off Labrador and Newfoundland, I think. The eastern Canadian arctic decided to go almost Ice Age from late 1970 to early 1973 and was running anomalies of -10 or -15 week after week. It probably had something to do with Woodstock.

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
Eddie, or somebody, have a look at post number one here, the coldest June, surely not 1645 ?? CET didn't start until 1659.

That month seems a little freakish to me when I look at the maps, over on this side there was Hurricane Agnes which followed a path unlike any other June tropical storm and was associated with 20 inches of rain in one day in parts of PA and NY, and daytime highs of 10 C at Toronto on like the 22nd I believe it was -- again, freakishly cold, the old record max from the LIA was probably 16 C.

What was causing all that, do you suppose?

I am surprised that a "tropical" storm of all things would have brought those low temperatures. Usually they bring very warm temperatures. Tropical storms are usually deep tropospheric warm cores of maritime tropical air.

Edited by Craig Evans
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Posted
  • Location: Brighouse, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Brighouse, West Yorkshire
Eddie, or somebody, have a look at post number one here, the coldest June, surely not 1645 ?? CET didn't start until 1659.

Oops well spotted Roger. It should say 1675 not 1645.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Re Agnes and the low temperatures, of course the hurricane had temps of 23-26 C on its coastal side when it looped through PA on 21-22 June 1972, but it was rapidly becoming extra-tropical and it dragged in some very cool air from north of the Great Lakes, so that's how the record low max developed ... while it was that cold, over 50 mms of rain fell, and further south as I was saying, over a foot of rain and massive flooding near the NY-PA border.

This interaction between tropical storms and arctic air masses is infrequent, but in 1804 there was the "snow hurricane" in late October where a perfect storm of tropical to arctic origins developed over the Hudson valley.

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Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

Ok a day late. My punt 14.8C.

Anyone fancy compiling an updated list?

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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
Ok a day late. My punt 14.8C.

Anyone fancy compiling an updated list?

Ok I will then. Assuming there are no more late entries, as follows:

13.0°C - Jim_AFCBC

13.4°C - snowmaiden

13.8°C - Northants Snow

13.9°C - Terminal Moraine

14.0°C - ribster

14.1°C - richarddx7

14.1°C - shuggee

14.1°C - beng

14.2°C - BLAST FROM THE PAST

14.2°C - memories of 63

14.2°C - sundog

14.3°C - SnowBear

14.3°C - The Calm before the Storm

14.4°C - Michael Prys-Roberts

14.5°C - osmposm

14.5°C - Norrace

14.5°C - mountain shadow

14.5°C - Lady Pakal

14.6°C - Stephen Prudence

14.6°C - summer blizzard

14.7°C - BARRY

14.8°C - damianslaw

14.8°C - Kentish Man (1 day late -10)

14.9°C - Roger J Smith

14.9°C - Potent Gust

14.9°C - Stargazer

15.0°C - Snowsure

15.0°C - Mr_Data

15.0°C - Somerset Squall

15.0°C - Joneseye

15.1°C - SteveB

15.1°C - The PIT

15.1°C - mark bayley

15.1°C - kold weather

15.1°C - ukmoose

15.1°C - StormMad26

15.1°C - JACKONE

15.2°C - Timmead

15.2°C - Thundery wintry showers

15.2°C - Mr Maunder

15.2°C - Megamoonflake

15.2°C - RAIN RAIN RAIN

15.2°C - acbrixton (1 day late -10)

15.3°C - grab my graupels

15.3°C - Optimus Prime

15.3°C - Duncan McAlister

15.3°C - DR Hosking

15.3°C - Don

15.3°C - davehsug

15.4°C - Polar Gael

15.4°C - Stu_London

15.4°C - DAVID SNOW

15.4°C - Bottesford

15.4°C - IRON BRU

15.5°C - chinomaniac

15.5°C - Gavin P

15.6°C - Jack Wales

15.6°C - Jonnie G

15.6°C - Snowyowl9

15.6°C - Nick H

15.6°C - Mark H

15.7°C - James M

15.7°C - Paul B

15.7°C - reef

15.8°C - Matty M (2 days late -20)

15.8°C - Polar Continental

15.8°C - Anti-Mild

15.8°C - phil n.warks.

15.8°C - AtlanticFlamethrower

15.8°C - Devon-Nelly

15.9°C - Cymru

15.9°C - NaDamantaSam

16.0°C - Summer of 95

16.1°C - mk13

16.1°C - Calrissian

16.1°C - Tornado Alley

16.1°C - Glacier Point

16.2°C - Sunlover

16.2°C - La Nina

16.3°C - Scorcher

16.3°C - Steve Murr

16.8°C - Mike W

19.0°C - Craig Evans

Oh and is it just one penalty for being late or does it increase the later you enter?

Edited by snowmaiden
tidying up list at James request
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Oh and is it just one penalty for being late or does it increase the later you enter?

10 pts per day i think - technically AC Brixton was late too - not that I am a filthy grass or anything.

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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
10 pts per day i think - technically AC Brixton was late too - not that I am a filthy grass or anything.

Right ok, can a mod edit my post as appropriate please? upto you if you want to include acbrixton.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Right ok, can a mod edit my post as appropriate please? upto you if you want to include acbrixton.

Of course he should be given a late penalty, rules are rules, to not do so would make a farce of this competition.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

14.7C to the 4th on Hadley

A small rise over the coming days followed by a slight fall should leave us between 14.5C and 15.0C at the half way mark.

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Posted
  • Location: Brixton, South London
  • Location: Brixton, South London
Of course he should be given a late penalty, rules are rules, to not do so would make a farce of this competition.

Whoever suggested that I should not be penalised?

regards

ACB

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I can never tell looking back at these times on my screen what the real time was, because there is an error of either one or two hours ... however, for ACB, I would propose a new rule ... cutoff is effectively 0300 on the first of the month, because what can anyone know at 0030 that they didn't know an hour before? The GFS 00z run hasn't come out yet. The local weather hasn't changed by any significant amount.

Give ACB the benefit of the doubt, I say, and make the cutoff time 0300, everyone is usually in bed by then (I know, because I'm always on here chatting with Inktomi Spider around then).

And if this rule retroactively helps anyone else, then apply it to them too. I understand the rule, but it should be scaled to the actual "day" that people live, for example, if somebody says to you at work, "I'm watching Craig Ferguson later tonight" they don't say "tomorrow" because that would mean the day after tomorrow.

But also check the times to see whether ACB was really after midnight, I suspect he might have posted before midnight.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

How about we use NASA rules.......'fix' the temperature so that it matches my CET punt :o

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

Today Manley stands at 13.9C while Hadley is on 14.6C (Jun 1 - 5). That is certainly an unusually large discrepancy between the two.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
I can never tell looking back at these times on my screen what the real time was, because there is an error of either one or two hours ... however, for ACB, I would propose a new rule ... cutoff is effectively 0300 on the first of the month, because what can anyone know at 0030 that they didn't know an hour before? The GFS 00z run hasn't come out yet. The local weather hasn't changed by any significant amount.

Give ACB the benefit of the doubt, I say, and make the cutoff time 0300, everyone is usually in bed by then (I know, because I'm always on here chatting with Inktomi Spider around then).

And if this rule retroactively helps anyone else, then apply it to them too. I understand the rule, but it should be scaled to the actual "day" that people live, for example, if somebody says to you at work, "I'm watching Craig Ferguson later tonight" they don't say "tomorrow" because that would mean the day after tomorrow.

But also check the times to see whether ACB was really after midnight, I suspect he might have posted before midnight.

I'll second that idea. For most of us it would make little difference to the accuracy of our 'forecasts' if the cut off time was midnight on the 5th of the month let alone 0300 on the 1st. Undoubtedly someone will argue that there's plenty of time prior to the 1st of the month to get your guess in, so no leeway should be given but, hey ho.

By the way, where is Stratos Ferric these days? He rarely misses a CET punt and I haven't seen him on here for ages.

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