Gavin's Thoughts (May 24th)

[Gavin P]

Hello folks,

This May has been dominated by high pressure sitting to the north or north-east. As such we've seen a much greater than average incidence of easterly winds. Its also been a much drier than average month and for northern regions the coming week promise's more dry weather, with high pressure remaining close to northern Scotland. For England and Wales we can expect a very differant week, with low pressure coming up from France through this weekend, giving lots of heavy rain and strong winds, and the pattern will repeat itself into the middle of the week as week as well, with some very heavy and possibly thundery rain pushing up from France on Wednesday.

The Bank Holiday weekend is starting off on a dry and windy note for much of the UK, with high pressure to the north-east of Scotland, and low pressure developing over France and in between the two we have a squeeze of easterly winds. Quite a cloudy day, but there will be some sunny spells away from the east coast where it will probably be yet another dull day. Temperatures between 16-18c, so quite a warmish day, despite the wind.

Overnight, outbreaks of heavy rain will spread into Southern England, with the rest of the country staying dry and windy.

Sunday is going to see low pressure pushing up from France across England and Wales. Heavy rain from the word go across the far south, and this will quickly spread north across England and Wales giving all places to the south of Manchester a throughly wet and windy day, with strong north-easterly winds driving on the heavy and persistent rain. For the rest of Northern England and Scotland, as well as Northern Ireland, we're looking at a dry day, with increasing amounts of sunshine the further north you go. In the far south, the rain should ease off in the afternoon and with brightning skies temps will pick up quickly and this could set off a few thunderstorms. Temps at their highest in the north, 17-18c, and in southern counties, 20-21c, but obviously under the rain they will be very depressed, with maxima of just 11-13c.

Overnight, the rain should ease down for a time and become light and patchy, but by the end of the night, more heavy rain will be pushing up into the south and south-east. A very mild night with temps holding up at 10-12c.

Bank Holiday Monday looks a throughly horrible day for England with persistent heavy and thundery rain pushing pushing up from France to cover the south-east, East Anglia, The Midlands, Central and Southern England. Possibly the risk of some thunderstorms being embedded within this mass of extremely wet weather and all driven along by strong east or north-easterly winds. There will by this time be a risk of floodiing in some places, with rivers possibly bursting their banks. For Wales and the West Country, we may miss the heaviest of the rain on Monday, and just have a cloudy and damp day. Northern England and Scotland will see a good deal of dry weather, quite cloudy on the eastern side, but brighter in the west, with the best of the sunshine probably for North-West Scotland and Northern Ireland, where it could be a lovely, warm and sunny day. Late on the heavy rain will die away from the south-east, and probably move into North-East England. Temps up to 18-19c in Western Scotland, but under the wet and windy weather to the south, just 12-14c.

A very cold, wet and miserable holiday weekend in the south!

Tuesday should be a slightly better day, with the UK sitting under a minor Col. Mondays heavy rain will be sitting across Eastern Scotland, but elsewhere it probably starts overcast and misty, but dry. Gradually it should brighten up with sunny spells developing and this could set off a few scattered thundery showers during the afternoon. Temps, 16-18c.

Wednesday will see the next low pressure pushing up from France, this low could contain some very humid air, so thunderstorms may be possible.

Most parts start Wednesday and dry and bright note, but cloud and heavy rain will already be developing along the south coast and this will push northwards through the day, giving much of England and Wales another very wet day, with persistent heavy, thundery rain. East Anglia and the South-East may see less in the way of rain, but here we could draw up some very warm and humid air, with the risk of violent thunderstorms breaking out late in the afternoon. Once again there will be a risk of flooding. Again Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England misses all of this action and has a mostly dry and bright day with sunny spells. Temps, 16-18 in the north, a humid 17-18c under the persistent rain, and possibly up to a very humid 25c (77f) in the far south-east before those thunderstorms set off.

Overnight, we should see the heavy rain and thunderstorms becoming confined to the eastern side of the country, with most central and western parts becoming mainly dry and clear, with fresher moving in from off the Atlantic.

Thursday should see the UK in more of an Atlantic flow, so it should be a fresher day with sunny spells and just a scattering of showers. Temps 18-19c.

Friday is with some uncertainty, but I think we could see another batch of rain slowly working in from off the Atlantic, with the east coast probably remaining dry and sunny until late in the afternoon. Temps up to 20c.

Next weekend - Possibly settling down with high pressure ridging up from the south-west, so becoming dry, warm and sunny, maybe?

Summary: Very wet for England and Wales this week. Risk of flooding. Drier for the north.

[azores92]

Hello folks,

This May has been dominated by high pressure sitting to the north or north-east. As such we've seen a much greater than average incidence of easterly winds. Its also been a much drier than average month and for northern regions the coming week promise's more dry weather, with high pressure remaining close to northern Scotland. For England and Wales we can expect a very differant week, with low pressure coming up from France through this weekend, giving lots of heavy rain and strong winds, and the pattern will repeat itself into the middle of the week as week as well, with some very heavy and possibly thundery rain pushing up from France on Wednesday.

The Bank Holiday weekend is starting off on a dry and windy note for much of the UK, with high pressure to the north-east of Scotland, and low pressure developing over France and in between the two we have a squeeze of easterly winds. Quite a cloudy day, but there will be some sunny spells away from the east coast where it will probably be yet another dull day. Temperatures between 16-18c, so quite a warmish day, despite the wind.

Overnight, outbreaks of heavy rain will spread into Southern England, with the rest of the country staying dry and windy.

Sunday is going to see low pressure pushing up from France across England and Wales. Heavy rain from the word go across the far south, and this will quickly spread north across England and Wales giving all places to the south of Manchester a throughly wet and windy day, with strong north-easterly winds driving on the heavy and persistent rain. For the rest of Northern England and Scotland, as well as Northern Ireland, we're looking at a dry day, with increasing amounts of sunshine the further north you go. In the far south, the rain should ease off in the afternoon and with brightning skies temps will pick up quickly and this could set off a few thunderstorms. Temps at their highest in the north, 17-18c, and in southern counties, 20-21c, but obviously under the rain they will be very depressed, with maxima of just 11-13c.

Overnight, the rain should ease down for a time and become light and patchy, but by the end of the night, more heavy rain will be pushing up into the south and south-east. A very mild night with temps holding up at 10-12c.

Bank Holiday Monday looks a throughly horrible day for England with persistent heavy and thundery rain pushing pushing up from France to cover the south-east, East Anglia, The Midlands, Central and Southern England. Possibly the risk of some thunderstorms being embedded within this mass of extremely wet weather and all driven along by strong east or north-easterly winds. There will by this time be a risk of floodiing in some places, with rivers possibly bursting their banks. For Wales and the West Country, we may miss the heaviest of the rain on Monday, and just have a cloudy and damp day. Northern England and Scotland will see a good deal of dry weather, quite cloudy on the eastern side, but brighter in the west, with the best of the sunshine probably for North-West Scotland and Northern Ireland, where it could be a lovely, warm and sunny day. Late on the heavy rain will die away from the south-east, and probably move into North-East England. Temps up to 18-19c in Western Scotland, but under the wet and windy weather to the south, just 12-14c.

A very cold, wet and miserable holiday weekend in the south!

Tuesday should be a slightly better day, with the UK sitting under a minor Col. Mondays heavy rain will be sitting across Eastern Scotland, but elsewhere it probably starts overcast and misty, but dry. Gradually it should brighten up with sunny spells developing and this could set off a few scattered thundery showers during the afternoon. Temps, 16-18c.

Wednesday will see the next low pressure pushing up from France, this low could contain some very humid air, so thunderstorms may be possible.

Most parts start Wednesday and dry and bright note, but cloud and heavy rain will already be developing along the south coast and this will push northwards through the day, giving much of England and Wales another very wet day, with persistent heavy, thundery rain. East Anglia and the South-East may see less in the way of rain, but here we could draw up some very warm and humid air, with the risk of violent thunderstorms breaking out late in the afternoon. Once again there will be a risk of flooding. Again Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England misses all of this action and has a mostly dry and bright day with sunny spells. Temps, 16-18 in the north, a humid 17-18c under the persistent rain, and possibly up to a very humid 25c (77f) in the far south-east before those thunderstorms set off.

Overnight, we should see the heavy rain and thunderstorms becoming confined to the eastern side of the country, with most central and western parts becoming mainly dry and clear, with fresher moving in from off the Atlantic.

Thursday should see the UK in more of an Atlantic flow, so it should be a fresher day with sunny spells and just a scattering of showers. Temps 18-19c.

Friday is with some uncertainty, but I think we could see another batch of rain slowly working in from off the Atlantic, with the east coast probably remaining dry and sunny until late in the afternoon. Temps up to 20c.

Next weekend - Possibly settling down with high pressure ridging up from the south-west, so becoming dry, warm and sunny, maybe?

Summary: Very wet for England and Wales this week. Risk of flooding. Drier for the north.

very interesting thoughts gavin. i dont understand why the bbc graphics are showing very heavy rain for tuesday aswell? interesting....

[johnholmes]

nicely presented forecast as usual Gavin - thank you

[Gavin P]

Thanks guys. :lol:

Looking at the FAX charts, I think I may have been a bit optimistic with regards to Tuesday, but otherwise I'm happy with this weeks efforts.

[PB22]

Great stuff Gavin, thanks! Good spot about the midweek "plume" too I think!