Day 28 - Moderate Risk

[Paul Sherman]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0124 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN

GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS...

CORRECTED NDFD GRID POINTS

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE DAY 1 FORECAST PERIOD WITH

INDICATIONS OF MAINTAINING A COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE PATTERN /I.E. REX

BLOCK OVER WRN N AMERICA AND A DEEP VORTEX OVER NERN CANADA/. MID/

UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...IS

FORECAST TO OPEN AND GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO

CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ALONG SRN EXTENT OF ERN CANADA TROUGH. THIS

WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

FINALLY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND BROADER...WRN U.S. CLOSED

LOW/TROUGH...WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER CO

VALLEY INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE SURFACE LOW

ATTENDANT TO NRN PLAINS MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH WILL

DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NWRN ND INTO NRN MN

BY 26/00Z...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL

PRECEED THIS LOW...LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY

AND EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY

THIS EVENING. A TRAILING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EWD INTO THE

UPPER MS VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND

SWWD THROUGH WRN IA/ERN NEB TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO.

A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM INTERSECTION WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER

S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS SWD TO ALONG TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER INTO

WRN TX.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS...

SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL

PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS NRN PLAINS

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO

SURGE NEWD AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD REACH PARTS OF NERN MN/WRN

UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 60S-AROUND 70 LIKELY INTO ERN IA/SWRN WI.

SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE LATER THIS MORNING IN THE

WAKE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

THIS COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL

SUPPORT A MODERATE-VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MUCAPE RANGING FROM

2000-3500 J/KG/ FROM SERN MN/SWRN WI TO SERN NEB AND ERN KS.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE UPPER

GREAT LAKES. THIS COMBINED WITH ASCENT ATTENDANT TO HEIGHT FALLS AS

NRN PLAINS LOW SHIFTS EWD AND SEVERAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACK NEWD

WITHIN STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS

THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NRN MN SURFACE LOW SWWD ALONG THE TRAILING

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR

AROUND 50 KT ACROSS THIS ENTIRE REGION SUGGESTS THREAT FOR TORNADIC

SUPERCELLS...SOME STRONG INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE STRONG

INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR

HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL

DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE WILL BE SERN NEB/NERN KS

INTO SRN IA/NRN MO...WITH THE SECOND...FORWARD PROPAGATING... ACROSS

SRN WI/NRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A LLJ AXIS WITH

WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTIONS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES

SUPPORTING BOTH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE

OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS LOWER MI.

...SRN PLAINS...

DRY LINE SHOULD MIX EWD ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH

MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWD

ALONG THE EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP

LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS

EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE

STRONGEST AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN

OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE.

[NL]

Wahyoo... Moderate risk now for parts of Nebraska and most of Kansas.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0729 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN

MN...WESTERN WI...AND EXTREME WESTERN UPPER MI...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND

NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST NEB...NORTHWEST MO...AND SOUTHWEST IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX...ACROSS MUCH OF

THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH

TONIGHT ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHERN WI INTO KS...

...MN/WI/WRN UP...

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT

LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE

DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S

OVER IA/EASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN. THIS AREA SHOULD SEE RATHER STRONG

HEATING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS

DISSIPATE...LEADING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. FORECAST

SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE

VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP INTO

MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS

PARTS OF WI AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL

SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA SUGGEST A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF

VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/.

...KS/NEB/MO/IA...

A LARGE COMPLEX OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED HEAT BURSTS

HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PARTS OF OK/KS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS

DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO KS. NEVERTHELESS...PRESENT

INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME

ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH

DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG.

SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG

SURFACE DRY/TROUGH LINE AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE MOIST AXIS

THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SUCH

AS SEEN ON 12Z AMA SOUNDING/ AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW/DEEP

LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER 21Z WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE

OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MCS DURING THE EVENING

AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHEAST

NEB...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST IA AFTER

MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN

THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FROM THE OK PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TX...FULL SUNSHINE IS

EXPECTED ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A

PERIOD OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY

NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE DRYLINE BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE

STORMS.

..HART/GRAMS.. 05/25/2008

Tornado risk.

[NL]

Latest visible satellite image @1415z

[Rustynailer]

Kansas is generating wind reports already http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/last3hours.html Looking good

[Nick F]

Going to be hauling ass very shortly back down to west central/north central Kansas to play in today's storm potential. Models seem to be pointing to this area for greatest instability and SR helicity later.

Looking at the SPC convective outlooks - we could have chasing opportunities right through upto Friday too!

[NL]

Aye, a good 200+ mile journey ahead of you today, no doubt SPC want to nail this

today especially after their major 'cock-up' yesterday...!! Confidence seems to be

quite high. Good luck to all you chasers out there and lets have another Friday...!

[NL]

Mesoscle discussion concerning severe potential watch.

MCD - 25/1800Z

ACUS11 KWNS 251655

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 251655

KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-251800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251655Z - 251800Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF

NERN NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND SWRN KS. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG

WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE

NEEDED.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AGITATED CU FIELD AND COOLING TOPS AS STORMS

DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH OBSERVED TRENDS ON RADAR HAVE

BEEN FOR THESE STORMS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME

MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES

TO DEVELOP.

LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT

TOWARDS THE DRYLINE. MODIFYING THE 12Z AMA SOUNDING WITH

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S

PROVIDES A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT COMBINED WITH

EFFECTIVE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 TO 50 KTS WILL SUPPORT

SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS AS THE

PRIMARY THREAT. AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AMIDST

STRONG HEATING...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..HURLBUT.. 05/25/2008

[Roger J Smith]

Glad to hear that, the risk in Nebraska and further east looks speculative but south central KS looks good, Dodge City to Pratt would be my guess as to where the eventual tornadic potential will max out.

[NL]

MCD - 25/1815Z

ACUS11 KWNS 251717

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 251717

MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-251815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1217 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NWRN AR...SERN KS...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251717Z - 251815Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT

FEW HOURS ACROSS NERN OK...NWRN AR...SERN KS...AND SWRN MO. SOME OF

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL

AND DMGG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE

POSSIBLE AS WELL.

MCV INVOF CNTRL OK WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NEWD TOWARDS JLN OVER THE

NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING ACROSS THE OUTLINED

AREA AHEAD OF THIS...AND LITTLE CIN IS LEFT TO BE OVERCOME. AS

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE...MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE AS

MUCH 4000 J/KG SBCAPE CAN BE REALIZED. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE BOTH

AHEAD OF THE MCV AND ALONG A PSEUDO WARM FRONT ORIENTED ROUGHLY N-S

ALONG THE KS/MO AND OK/AR BORDERS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING

SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AND MULTICELL

CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. ISOLATED

TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEFLY BACKED FLOW AHEAD OF THE

MCV...OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

..HURLBUT.. 05/25/2008

[NL]

TornadoWatch - 2300Z

WWUS20 KWNS 251740

SEL7

SPC WW 251740

KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 357

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS

OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

MUCH OF TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL

600 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF

GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMARILLO TEXAS. FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR STREAMING NWD THRU TX/OK PANHANDLES

INTO SWRN KS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER

SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG

DRY LN WRN PORTION OF WATCH. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY INCLUDING VERY

LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS

WATCH AREA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

[Nick F]

Well, I imagine quite a few chasers are out of place in Nebraska and are hauling butt down into central Kansas now breaking speed limits! DOW and TIV were near us yesterday evening in NE. We are currently hauling down to Salina where we'll asses things and then probably head SW from there perhaps towards Great Bend - cumulus field developing over that area aswell as SW KS ... SPC should extend MDs over central Kansas with possible tornado watch to follow.

Good thing is ... there's a MODERATE risk over central Kansas tomorrow too

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[Gorky]

Great Bend was an area I would consider also... Should give you plenty of options. Hope you make it down in time

EDIT:

Looks like a few storms quickly going severe East of DDC. Movement should be NE so might be an idea to head east of Salina then drop south staircasing as you go. I do not know where you at the moment but if you can get to the Hays ares in the next 90 minutes or so you'll be good. If you are further away, you may not make the storms firing now but the Great Bend should be good for the next batch which will undoubtably form.

[Roger J Smith]

Based on current radar, would suggest staying on I-70 to WaKeeney and heading south or intercepting near there in 90 minutes or so ... first severe cell has shown up west of Scott City heading NE (from 230 deg being the current motion) ... other potential cells further south, my J-field analysis suggests 21z may be quite active so the peak at least 2 hours away.

Frontal boundary is oriented NE-SW and should remain q.s. today, I think Ness City or Jetmore areas may get the best storms later on.

[NL]

Cells currently firing up around Garden City Kansas, 150 mile sw of your location.

Travelling NE @30mph,and producing 2and a quarter inch hail.

[NL]

MCD issued

MCD - 25/2030Z

ACUS11 KWNS 251924

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 251923

NEZ000-KSZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0223 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL KS...SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251923Z - 252030Z

18Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SFC TROUGH FROM WRN IA SWWD TO MIDWAY

BETWEEN KCNK AND KMHK THEN WWD TO FINNEY COUNTY KS. ANOTHER

BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SEWD FROM SCNTRL NEB AND NWRN KS...MARKING EDGE

OF A COOLER/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL

DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE MID-MO VLY. RECENT TRENDS SHOW THAT THE

LOW-MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOSH NWD AGAIN... PROBABLY

EN ROUTE TO AN EVENING POSITION NEAR/S OF THE NRN SFC TROUGH.

18Z TOP SOUNDING EXHIBITED ABOUT 40 J/KG MLCINH. SUSPECT THAT

HEATING/SFC CONVERGENCE INVOF THE SFC TROUGH/RETREATING MOIST

BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INHIBITION THROUGH LATE AFTN.

TSTMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE FROM THE CU BAND ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS

NRN KS AND/OR DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE WRN KS TSTMS.

CURRENT VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH VEERING

NOTED THROUGH 1KM...THEN GENTLY BACKING THROUGH 3-4 KM BEFORE

VEERING AGAIN TO THE TOP OF THE TROP. ALSO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS

ON THE LOW END FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES

NOTED WILL OFFSET NEGATIVES WITH INITIAL STORMS EXHIBITING BRIEF

SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.

BRIEF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS UPDRAFT ACCELERATION WILL

BE RATHER STRONG VCNTY THE BOUNDARIES.

KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC SET-UPS THIS EVENING WILL FEATURE THE RIGHT

ENTRANCE REGION TO A 70+ KT H5 JET AND A DIURNAL INCREASE IN A SLY

LLJ NORMAL TO THE SW-NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY. GIVEN VERY MOIST INFLOW

INTO THE S END OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS...A BACKBUILDING MCS IS

LIKELY OVERNIGHT. ALSO...GIVEN WSWLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AOA 40

KTS ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH THE BOUNDARY...A MODEST DEGREE OF FORWARD

PROPAGATION WILL OCCUR. AS A RESULT...DMGG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL

WILL BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE LATER THIS EVENING NEWD TOWARD SERN

NEB.

ANOTHER WW WILL BE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL KS AND SERN

NEB...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TORNADO WATCH IN SWRN KS.

..RACY.. 05/25/2008

[MAF]

All in all its looking quite promising for some good storm action. hope you get some good views

[NL]

That cell now been tornado warned.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

239 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN LANE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 234 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES WEST OF

SCOTT CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SCOTT CITY...

GRIGSTON...

MANNING...

HEALY...

RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHERN SCOTT AND NORTHWESTERN LANE COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

BASEBALL SIZED HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS

THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY

ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU

ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE

LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO

NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THIS WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUS WARNING ISSUED FOR SCOTT COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR

SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

Latest visible sat image @2032z

[MAF]

:lol:

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

BASEBALL SIZED HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

[NL]

Tornado watch now issued.

TornadoWatch - 0300Z

WWUS20 KWNS 252000

SEL1

SPC WW 252000

KSZ000-NEZ000-260300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 361

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

300 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS

PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

RUSSELL KANSAS TO 60 MILES NORTH OF TOPEKA KANSAS. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 357...WW 358...WW

359...WW 360...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOP E/NE FROM SWRN

KS ALONG AND SO OF THE VERY UNSTABLE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. WITH

50KT OF SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SUPERCELLS INCLUDING VERY

LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

[dogs32]

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from 7 pm cdt this evening Through Monday afternoon,

The flash flood watch continues for

Portions of northeast Kansas and Missouri, Including The following areas, In Northeast Kansas, Atchison Ks, doniphan, Leavenworth And Wyandotte. In Missouri, Adair, andrew, Atchison Mo, Buchanan, Caldwell, Clay, Clinton, daviess, De Kalb, Gentry, Grundy, Harrison, Holt, Linn mo, Livingston, Macon, Mercer, Nodaway, Platte, Putnam, schuyler, Sullivan And Worth.

Anyone got any cam links

[NL]

Team are on I70 heading toward Oakley, they are now goin to intercept

that tornado warned cell.

http://data.ksn.com/video/radarstream.html

KSN are streaming live on these cells. Huge softball sized hail coming from these storms.

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

320 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

SOUTHEASTERN NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 316 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF ALEXANDER...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF BAZINE...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ALEXANDER...

NEKOMA...

RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE...RUSH AND SOUTHEASTERN

NESS COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS

THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY

ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU

ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE

LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO

NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING

FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS

[dogs32]

Thanks NL.....this team are south of OAKLEY

http://www.wx8ben.com/

LIVE

edit looks like A funnel trying to form

edit there off again maybe it wasnt

[MAF]

thanks guys. cant keep up with them here in work, so good to see updates where they are.

[Muffelchen]

Team are on I70 heading toward Oakley, they are now goin to intercept

that tornado warned cell.

http://data.ksn.com/video/radarstream.html

KSN are streaming live on these cells. Huge softball sized hail coming from these storms.

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

320 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

SOUTHEASTERN NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 316 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF ALEXANDER...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF BAZINE...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ALEXANDER...

NEKOMA...

RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE...RUSH AND SOUTHEASTERN

NESS COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS

THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY

ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU

ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE

LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO

NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING

FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS

NL, how did you get the satellite pic and tornado warning overlays for Google Earth?

Your help is appreciated with this: you definately are the MAN!

[NL]

Latest visible satellite image @2115z