Super Typhoon Nakri

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 06W formed in the early hours and has since been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nakri with an intensity of 35kts. Nakri is located between Guam and the Phillipines and is moving northwards. This motion is expected to become slower as steering influence becomes competetive between subtropical steering ridges both east and west of the storm. Eventually, the eastern ridge will become more influential so the slow northward track may not last forever. The slow track may give Nakri more time to strengthen as it will eventually head so far north that it will move over cooler waters and higher shear, which is forecasted to induce extratropical transistion is 5 days time. Before this, Nakri is in a good environment of low shear, good outflow and very warm sea temps which may allow it to become a typhoon.

Satellite image of the West Pacific showing Nakri (roughly centre-bottom):

Taken from CIMSS

Edited May 27, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

The favourable conditions have allowed Nakri to strengthen this afternoon, and it now has an intenisty of 45kts. JTWC are expecting a peak of 85kts before extratropical transition begins by 96hrs. Looks like Nakri will become a typhoon tommorrow.

Taken from NAVY/NRL

[Cookie]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp200806.html

[Somerset Squall]

Nakri has become a typhoon today. Really good banding features and an increasingly well defined eye have become evident in latest satellite images as Nakri makes use of good outflow and high sea temps. Initial intensity is 65kts but I expect that to rise with JTWC's update this evening. Nakri may top 100kts before turning extratropical beyond 96hrs.

[Cookie]

thanks for the update mate

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC's update now put Nakri at 80kts. The forecast is suggesting a peak of 100kts around 36-48 hrs before shear increases and sea temps cool off. Judging by the rate it is currently strengthening, I think Nakri may nudge a little higher than 100kts beofre the unfavourable conditions set in. Nakri will continue heading generally northwards slowly, until the steering ridge to the east becomes more dominant. It will then race northeastwards (much like Rammasun, Matmo and Halong did) ahead of an approaching trough to the west and complete extratropical transition by 120hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Latest image showing Nakri getting stronger all the time:

Taken from NAVY/NRL

[Cookie]

my post has vanished!!

is this thing any where near land?

[Somerset Squall]

my post has vanished!!

is this thing any where near land?

Fortunately not, a really good thing as it seems to be strengthening pretty rapidly. My first post with the satellite image gives you an idea of where Nakri is in relation to land. May head towards Japan again as an extratropical storm like a few of the other storms have this year so far but it shouldn't cause problems.

[Somerset Squall]

Nakri has continued intensifying as expected and is now at 95kts. JTWC have upped their intensity forecasts and now call for Nakri to reach 110kts in the near future. A really good looking system, and a good job it isn't approaching land.

[Cookie]

Fortunately not, a really good thing as it seems to be strengthening pretty rapidly. My first post with the satellite image gives you an idea of where Nakri is in relation to land. May head towards Japan again as an extratropical storm like a few of the other storms have this year so far but it shouldn't cause problems.

yeah I just wanted to double check. thanks for the updates mate

[tropical madness]

The JMA have predicted further intensification of Super Typhoon Nakri to a possible 910hPa by early Saturday which would make it a category 5 no doubt. Luckily its slow and away from land. Possibly will veer off eastwards soon.

Edited May 29, 2008 by tropical madness

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, Nakri has become a monster super typhoon. Initial intensity is 125kts, making it a mid-range cat 4 system. Nakri is looking very good right now, with a small eye present.

[Cookie]

this is my kind of storm a super typhoon and away from land!

[tropical madness]

Its a little baby of a super typhoon tho isnt it! haha! Im wishing for something a lot larger like Typhoon Tip!! (highly unlikely tho)

Edited May 30, 2008 by tropical madness

[Somerset Squall]

Nakri is now on a weakening trend, with a lower current intensity of 95kts. The eye has become cloud filled over the last several hours and increasingly irregular. The northern quadrant of the typhoon isn't as healthy as the southern side as poleward outflow is now being limited by ridging to the north. This ridging is also delaying Nakri's northward and northeastward turn and is therefore forcing a continued west-northwestward track for now. This may also delay the predicted extratropical transition as the shear, cooler waters and drier air which will induce it will meet Nakri later as northward progression into these conditions is slowed. Conditions have already started to deteriorate with the reduced outflow as mentioned above and also moderate shear affecting the system which is the cause for the current weakening. Weakening is expected to continue then extratropical transition will begin by 72hrs and be complete by 96hrs, providing a northward track isn't delayed any longer.

Image of the weakening Nakri:

[Cookie]

Its been a good storm as far as intensity goes

[tropical madness]

Nakri now in the dissipating stage with a central pressure ~970mb. Its projected to curve NE-wards and miss Japan as it encounters cooler waters and the mid-latitude westerlies which increases the vertical wind shear and disrupts its structure.

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, Nakri is spinning down but interestingly it has held intensity for the last 6 hours and an eye is still visible. Intensity is at 65kts. The brief slowdown in weakening could be due to a temporary slower track speed, which is keeping Nakri away from the strongest shear and the colder waters. Extratropical transition is still expected to be complete by 72hrs.

Taken from NAVY/NRL

[Cookie]

Thanks again for the updates another system conisdnd to the history books

Edited May 31, 2008 by cookie

[Somerset Squall]

Not quite yet Cookie, Nakri is fighting very well and is point blank refusing to weaken. Enhanced outflow has allowed Nakri to persist in the cooler waters and higher shear. In fact, Nakri intensified last night to 70kts and has since weakened to 65kts this morning. However, Nakri's eye has become better defined since then and I wouldn't be surprised to perhaps see the JTWC nudge the intensity back up to 70kts in the next advisory (about an hours time). Overall though, Nakri isn't that long for this world but it's putting up an impressive fight and looks pretty good in satellite imagery.

Edited June 1, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

ahh right thought this has given up the ghost

[Somerset Squall]

ahh right thought this has given up the ghost

I certainly didn't expect it to remain a typhoon this long either. The outflow is the only thing on it's side at the moment but even this is expected to decrease as Nakri accelerates northeastwards ahead of the approaching trough.

[Somerset Squall]

Nakri has intensified further this evening and is now at 75kts. A solid ring of convection surrounds a fairly well defined eye and good outflow has helped this small typhoon to strengthen over cooler waters. To further aid the intensification, it appears that shear has temporairly eased over Nakri. However, stronger shear, even cooler waters and cold, dry air is expected to induce extratropical transition by 24hrs which is expected to be complete by 48hrs.

[Louby]

Very spectacular from above I have to say.

Thanks for the constant updates SS tis very much appreciated