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Day 30 Discussion - Slight Risk Tues 27th May


Nick F

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Jaunt down to Oklahoma today for us, low end probability of tornadoes ...

    post-1052-1211901654_thumb.pngpost-1052-1211901670_thumb.png

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0741 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

    VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN

    PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST

    STATES...

    ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

    UPPER LOW WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE WESTERN STATES FOR THE LAST

    SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED...WITH A BROAD FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW

    ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

    A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS AFFECTED MUCH OF OK AND WESTERN

    AR OVERNIGHT...AND HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...A

    MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF STORMS

    OVER NORTH TX. THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT INTO

    SOUTHWEST OK BY AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES INTO

    REGION AND HELPS TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. MLCAPE VALUES 3000-3500

    J/KG ARE EXPECTED...BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR

    VALUES. SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE

    EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST OK AND PARTS OF WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON AND

    EVENING. IF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN

    ITS IDENTITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND

    NORTH OF FEATURE COULD ALSO PROVIDE A LOCALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT

    FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

    FARTHER EAST...LEADING EDGE OF CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY BY

    EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE

    AIRMASS. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND

    HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN

    TN AND NORTHERN MS.

    ...NORTHEAST...

    A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO THE NORTHEAST

    UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NEW

    ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING

    RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS NOW RISING INTO THE 60S

    OVER NY/PA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE

    AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE

    VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO

    INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT FROM EASTERN NY INTO PARTS OF

    VT/NH/ME...AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN

    NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRENGTH OF

    WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL POSE A THREAT

    OF WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND

    HAIL.

    ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/27/2008

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Latest vsible satellite image @1845z

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    New MCD issued concerning severe watch .

    MCD - 27/2115Z

    ACUS11 KWNS 271852

    SWOMCD

    SPC MCD 271852

    TXZ000-OKZ000-272115-

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1062

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0152 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

    AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK...NW TX

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 271852Z - 272115Z

    THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA

    CONTINUES WESTWARD PROPAGATION INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL

    EVENTUALLY INTERSECT WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO

    WESTERN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH

    EVENTUAL EROSION OF WEAK CAP AROUND 700 MB...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM

    DEVELOPMENT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH WATCH POSSIBLE.

    TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S APPROACHING LOW 90S WITH DEW

    POINTS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THIS AREA. AREA WILL BECOME UNCAPPED

    AS FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLIDE NEAR THE HARMON/JACKSON COUNTY

    AREA. EXPECT STORMS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ONCE THEY DEVELOP GIVEN

    MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG AND STRONG FORCING. DEEP LAYER

    MEAN SHEAR DECREASES SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR

    STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO SEVERE

    STORMS.

    ..BOTHWELL.. 05/27/2008

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    Posted
  • Location: south east London
  • Location: south east London

    we are currently sitting just south of clinton watching a cell just to our west looking LP we have the most awsome view point so we are going to let it drift twards us and we will see what it does for us :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    Things looking ok guys? Not had chance to read up on the latest as yet.. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    That cell is up and down more times than a brides nightie, was up to 51,000ft dropped a bit now but other cells are going up to 45,000ft, cell is still producing 2and quarter inch hail.

    Teams position

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Tornado warning although far to south for the team to jump on.

    TornadoWarning - 28/0000Z

    WFUS54 KMAF 272335

    TORMAF

    TXC115-280000-

    O.NEW.KMAF.TO.W.0027.080527T2335Z-080528T0000Z

    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

    635 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

    CENTRAL DAWSON COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

    * UNTIL 700 PM CDT

    * AT 627 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED

    A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES

    WEST OF LAMESA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

    * THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

    LAMESA...

    THE INTERSECTION OF U.S. HIGHWAY 180 AND FARM TO MARKET ROAD 829...

    A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE

    HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

    A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

    TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Cheers for the update Ian, how were the storms tonight, spectacular lightning?? or just

    the 'run ov the mill' stuff.. lol. Long but casual drive to Nebraska/South Dakota for Thursdays

    slight risk i suspect, might see a bit storm activity over eastern Nebraska tomorrow chance

    one or two may become severe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
    Cheers for the update Ian, how were the storms tonight, spectacular lightning?? or just

    the 'run ov the mill' stuff.. lol. Long but casual drive to Nebraska/South Dakota for Thursdays

    slight risk i suspect, might see a bit storm activity over eastern Nebraska tomorrow chance

    one or two may become severe.

    Considering today's risk has just gone High, I'd assumer that one or two might go severe ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Yep small isolated area will be upgraded to high risk very shortly, quite a surprise that one but there we go we shall see, quite an impressive string of severe weather threats recently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    Models were pointing to this for a little while. I posted about another big Iowa event possible earlier in the week, but the whoel thing has speeded up a bit from the models I was looking at. It was tomorrow which I'd originally though would be the big day! (It may still be). I wonder if the team are even awake right now... no discussion thread from them yet. Hope they just slept in and are too busy hauling ass towards Nebraska right now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
    Models were pointing to this for a little while. I posted about another big Iowa event possible earlier in the week, but the whoel thing has speeded up a bit from the models I was looking at. It was tomorrow which I'd originally though would be the big day! (It may still be). I wonder if the team are even awake right now... no discussion thread from them yet. Hope they just slept in and are too busy hauling ass towards Nebraska right now.

    Paul & the team set off from Okarche last night about 6.30pm they were due to arrive in Concordia , Kansas about 12.00 midnight. Their target area is N/E Nebrask. They have Dave Ewoldt, Gavin & Lorraine with them Plus Chris from the ITV. Lucky lot. I am setting off shortly for Dodge City it is a small chance of seeing something today. I fly home in the morning so did not head north with them

    Tom

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