Day 30 Discussion - Slight Risk Tues 27th May

[Nick F]

Jaunt down to Oklahoma today for us, low end probability of tornadoes ...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0741 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST

STATES...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

UPPER LOW WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE WESTERN STATES FOR THE LAST

SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED...WITH A BROAD FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW

ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS AFFECTED MUCH OF OK AND WESTERN

AR OVERNIGHT...AND HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...A

MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF STORMS

OVER NORTH TX. THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT INTO

SOUTHWEST OK BY AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES INTO

REGION AND HELPS TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. MLCAPE VALUES 3000-3500

J/KG ARE EXPECTED...BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR

VALUES. SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE

EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST OK AND PARTS OF WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. IF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN

ITS IDENTITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND

NORTH OF FEATURE COULD ALSO PROVIDE A LOCALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT

FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

FARTHER EAST...LEADING EDGE OF CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY BY

EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE

AIRMASS. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND

HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN

TN AND NORTHERN MS.

...NORTHEAST...

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO THE NORTHEAST

UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NEW

ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING

RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS NOW RISING INTO THE 60S

OVER NY/PA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE

AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE

VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO

INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT FROM EASTERN NY INTO PARTS OF

VT/NH/ME...AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN

NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRENGTH OF

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL POSE A THREAT

OF WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND

HAIL.

..HART/JEWELL.. 05/27/2008

[NL]

Latest vsible satellite image @1845z

[NL]

New MCD issued concerning severe watch .

MCD - 27/2115Z

ACUS11 KWNS 271852

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 271852

TXZ000-OKZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1062

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0152 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271852Z - 272115Z

THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA

CONTINUES WESTWARD PROPAGATION INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL

EVENTUALLY INTERSECT WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO

WESTERN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH

EVENTUAL EROSION OF WEAK CAP AROUND 700 MB...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH WATCH POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S APPROACHING LOW 90S WITH DEW

POINTS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THIS AREA. AREA WILL BECOME UNCAPPED

AS FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLIDE NEAR THE HARMON/JACKSON COUNTY

AREA. EXPECT STORMS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ONCE THEY DEVELOP GIVEN

MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG AND STRONG FORCING. DEEP LAYER

MEAN SHEAR DECREASES SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR

STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO SEVERE

STORMS.

..BOTHWELL.. 05/27/2008

[ian cameron]

we are currently sitting just south of clinton watching a cell just to our west looking LP we have the most awsome view point so we are going to let it drift twards us and we will see what it does for us

[ian cameron]

we are now heading south to intercept that rotating cell mobile signal has just dropped out

[pottyprof]

Things looking ok guys? Not had chance to read up on the latest as yet..

[ian cameron]

not to far from snyder we will then go east to ride this baby out in the middle of the cell

[NL]

That cell is up and down more times than a brides nightie, was up to 51,000ft dropped a bit now but other cells are going up to 45,000ft, cell is still producing 2and quarter inch hail.

Teams position

[NL]

Tornado warning although far to south for the team to jump on.

TornadoWarning - 28/0000Z

WFUS54 KMAF 272335

TORMAF

TXC115-280000-

O.NEW.KMAF.TO.W.0027.080527T2335Z-080528T0000Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

635 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL DAWSON COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 627 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES

WEST OF LAMESA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

LAMESA...

THE INTERSECTION OF U.S. HIGHWAY 180 AND FARM TO MARKET ROAD 829...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE

HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

[ian cameron]

we are going to spend the night in witchata falls in texas then head north tomorrow

[NL]

Cheers for the update Ian, how were the storms tonight, spectacular lightning?? or just

the 'run ov the mill' stuff.. lol. Long but casual drive to Nebraska/South Dakota for Thursdays

slight risk i suspect, might see a bit storm activity over eastern Nebraska tomorrow chance

one or two may become severe.

[Gorky]

Cheers for the update Ian, how were the storms tonight, spectacular lightning?? or just

the 'run ov the mill' stuff.. lol. Long but casual drive to Nebraska/South Dakota for Thursdays

slight risk i suspect, might see a bit storm activity over eastern Nebraska tomorrow chance

one or two may become severe.

Considering today's risk has just gone High, I'd assumer that one or two might go severe

[kold weather]

Yep small isolated area will be upgraded to high risk very shortly, quite a surprise that one but there we go we shall see, quite an impressive string of severe weather threats recently.

[Gorky]

Models were pointing to this for a little while. I posted about another big Iowa event possible earlier in the week, but the whoel thing has speeded up a bit from the models I was looking at. It was tomorrow which I'd originally though would be the big day! (It may still be). I wonder if the team are even awake right now... no discussion thread from them yet. Hope they just slept in and are too busy hauling ass towards Nebraska right now.

[Tom Lynch]

Models were pointing to this for a little while. I posted about another big Iowa event possible earlier in the week, but the whoel thing has speeded up a bit from the models I was looking at. It was tomorrow which I'd originally though would be the big day! (It may still be). I wonder if the team are even awake right now... no discussion thread from them yet. Hope they just slept in and are too busy hauling ass towards Nebraska right now.

Paul & the team set off from Okarche last night about 6.30pm they were due to arrive in Concordia , Kansas about 12.00 midnight. Their target area is N/E Nebrask. They have Dave Ewoldt, Gavin & Lorraine with them Plus Chris from the ITV. Lucky lot. I am setting off shortly for Dodge City it is a small chance of seeing something today. I fly home in the morning so did not head north with them

Tom