East Pacific Invest Thread

[Mesosphere]

A Tropical Disturbance has fomred in the Central Pacific Basin :-

The system has been named Invest 90C

(bottom left of image)

000

ACPN50 PHFO 060755

TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

1000 PM HST SAT JUL 5 2008

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A COMPACT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...FROM 950 TO MORE THAN 1100 MILES

WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...NEAR 28N 176W...IS

ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. UPPER WINDS ARE CURRENTLY

UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL

sat images :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/loop-vis.html

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, an interesting little one this, simply because it's so far north (it's actually the little cluster top-left of the picture). It looked a lot better yesterday but convection has rapidly decreased as cold waters lie not far to the north so further development would be unlikely.

Edited July 6, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Mesosphere]

Yes, an interesting little one this, simply because it's so far north (it's actually the little cluster top-left of the picture).

my mistake , sorry about that , was half asleep this morning

[Somerset Squall]

We now have invest 98E in the east Pacific. This little low has developed rather rapidly over the last 24 hours, and there is some moderate convection persisting near the increasingly well defined LLC. Environment is favourable for further development due to low shear, high sea temps, and favourable outflow. JTWC has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system wheras the NHC only rate the chance of developmet within 48 hours as moderate.

[Cookie]

a good image their mate :lol:

[Somerset Squall]

98E still has a pretty well defined circulation but it is struggling convection wise. The invest is expected to move over even warmer waters over the next couple days which may aid further development of the system.

We also now have invest 99E, to the northwest of 98E. There is plenty of convection with this one but unlike 98E, 99E lacks a well defined circulation. The system is moving west-northwestward and will have to organise quickly to become a tropical cyclone as cooler waters lie not far ahead. Given it's organisational state at the moment, I'd say development into a TD is unlikely.

[Somerset Squall]

We now have invest 90E in the East Pacific. This system is quite far east, in fact it's in a similar position to where Alma formed at the end of May. Earlier, there was quite a bit of convection surrounding a consolidating centre. However, 90E doesn't look so good now, with much od the convection having dissipated. The NHC still flag the system has having a medium risk of TC development over the next couple days as conditions are expected to be favourable.

[Cookie]

is it normal for their to be a lot invests?

[Somerset Squall]

is it normal for their to be a lot invests?

Yes, any system that looks like there is potential for development gets labelled. Of course, not all end up developing, but it's normal to have lots of potential.

Anyway, invest 90E has become a better organised today, and we may well have TD7 soon. NHC'S take on things:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW

PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO

AND GUATEMALA HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT

OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

They've given the system a high chance for development in the next 48hrs. Of course, that doesn't mean it's certain.

Edited July 14, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

thanks for answering that mate :lol:

[Somerset Squall]

We currently have invest 91E in the East Pacific, once again originating the area where Alma formed. The system has travelled northwestwards since then, and is currently in favourable conditions for development: the NHC place the risk as high for tropical cyclone development in the next 48hrs and the JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the disturbance.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 90.0W TO 15.1N 101.0W

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-

AGERY AT 192130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 12.5N 90.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 90.6W,

APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR, EL SALVADOR.

RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED

CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A SOMEWHAT BROAD LOW-

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191630Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS

DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTHWEST WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH

QUADRANT. THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, SOUTH

OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND

MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVER THE NEXT 18-36

HOURS, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO

DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO

20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005

MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE BANDING AND DEFINED

LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED

BY 202230Z.//

BT

NNNN

Edited July 20, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 91E is looking in pretty good shape, I think TD8E isn't far off here, there is some formative banding developing along with some persistant convection over a consolidating centre so an upgrade might be made later tonight or tomorrow IMO.

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 92E has now formed in the East Pacific. An LLC has formed in association with a deep area of convection located in the ITCZ. The NHC have flagged the system at moderate chance of development over the coming days as the system moves west-northwestwards, as long as it can become detached from the ITCZ.

Satellite image of the East Pacific, invest 92E is located around 10N, 105W

Edited August 1, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

thanks for the update mate

[Somerset Squall]

In addition to 92E (which is still very disorganised), we have invest 93E, just south of the southern tip of Baja California. This system has become pretty well organised today and I reckon has fair potential to develop. However, it's got to get a move on as cooler waters await to the west-northwest in a couple days.

[Louby]

got a question for you SS if you don't mind.

You say this storm has become pretty organised, what is meant by organised?

[Somerset Squall]

When I say organised I mean a circulation is developing, convection is persisting near the centre and convection is fairly concentrated and deep, not scattered and sparse. You can see this in the image, it's circular appearance means it's becoming better organised. An example of something not very well organised is invest 99W in the West Pacific, you can clearly see the difference: Convection isn't so deep and is scattered and there is little evidence of a defined circulation. Hope this helps.

[Louby]

It sure does, thanks :lol:

[Somerset Squall]

92E remains very disorganised and development is no longer anticipated.

93E is becoming less organised due to land interaction with Baja California. Even if the circulation moves away from land, waters are now too cool to allow for development.

[Somerset Squall]

Not strictly the East Pacific, but we have an interesting little invest in the Central Pacific, invest 92C which could well become the first cyclone of the Central Pacific season. The LLC is well defined and convection has increased today. This is what the CPHC have to say on the system:

Persistent thunderstorms associated with a well defined surface trough about 1200 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized this evening. However, this system may become better organized as it moves westward at about 10 mph during the next couple of days. Therefore, this area will be closely monitored for any signs of development.

If current trends continue, we may have Tropical Depression 01C in the coming days.

[Somerset Squall]

92C is becoming much better organised, we may have a depression by morning as convection persists over a well defined centre.

Showers and thunderstorms are associated with a surface trough around 1000 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. The area has become somewhat more organized over the past six hours, and will be closely monitored for further signs of development.

[Somerset Squall]

92C in the central pacific has not become any better organised today, but development is still possible.

Of more interest however, is invest 92E in the east pacific that I have been watching for a while. As said earlier, theis invest really needed to detach itself from the ITCZ to develop further and it has now done that. Indeed, the NHC are saying a tropical depression could be forming as deep convection has persisted near a very well defined LLC. We may have TD9 in the next few hours.

EDIT: We have TD9!

[Somerset Squall]

In addition to Hernan and Kika, we have 4 invests in the East/Central pacific.

Firstly, we have invest 94E. It's currently quite disorganised, however, conditions do appear favourable for development on it's slow westward heading. Convection is fairly deep and widespread but the LLC is currently ill defined.

Secondly, we have 95E to the east of Hurricane Hernan. Convection is currently limited and disorganised, but once again conditions are favourable in the area for slow development, providing it doesn't move too close to Hernan (this is unlikely).

Thirdly, invest 96E. This one is the most interesting as the NHC has given it a high risk of development in the next 48hrs. Deep, concentrated convection has developed over a well defined low which has not long moved into the pacific from South America. As conditions are favourable, I think it's quite likely we'll see TD10 in the next day or so.

Lastly, invest 93C, to the southwest of Kika, 1100 miles southwest of Hawaii. This one lacks a well defined low level centre but convection is on the increase and conditions are marginal for development over the coming days.

Satellite image: (TS Kika on the left (the round blob), invest 94E in between Kika and Hernan (the disorganised deep clouds), Hurricane Hernan in the centre, invest 95E to the right of Hernan (with less deep convection) and invest 96E on the far right (which looks good for development). Invest 93C is out of shot to the left of Kika.)

A lot to watch over the coming days!!

Edited August 8, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

This image will give you a better idea of where everything is:

[tinybill]

In addition to Hernan and Kika, we have 4 invests in the East/Central pacific.

Firstly, we have invest 94E. It's currently quite disorganised, however, conditions do appear favourable for development on it's slow westward heading. Convection is fairly deep and widespread but the LLC is currently ill defined.

Secondly, we have 95E to the east of Hurricane Hernan. Convection is currently limited and disorganised, but once again conditions are favourable in the area for slow development, providing it doesn't move too close to Hernan (this is unlikely).

Thirdly, invest 96E. This one is the most interesting as the NHC has given it a high risk of development in the next 48hrs. Deep, concentrated convection has developed over a well defined low which has not long moved into the pacific from South America. As conditions are favourable, I think it's quite likely we'll see TD10 in the next day or so.

Lastly, invest 93C, to the southwest of Kika, 1100 miles southwest of Hawaii. This one lacks a well defined low level centre but convection is on the increase and conditions are marginal for development over the coming days.

Satellite image: (TS Kika on the left (the round blob), invest 94E in between Kika and Hernan (the disorganised deep clouds), Hurricane Hernan in the centre, invest 95E to the right of Hernan (with less deep convection) and invest 96E on the far right (which looks good for development). Invest 93C is out of shot to the left of Kika.)

A lot to watch over the coming days!!

http://ralphstropicalweather.homestead.com...WeatherOut.html

is that the same one as above