Tropical Storm Alma

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 90E has gained enough organisation to be classed a tropical depression, the first of the East Pacific season, with an initial intensity of 25kts. The convection surrounding 01E is quite sporadic in nature at the moment, but low shear and warm sea temps should allow 01E to become better organised prior to landfall in around 24 hours time. NHC call for 01E to briefly become a tropical storm before landfall. The system will be a rainmaker more than anything and the NHC has flagged up the danger of life threatening heavy rains and mudslides, particularly in Nicaragua and Costa Rica, where it is estimated up to 20 inches of rain could fall.

Satellite image with 01E in bottom left corner:

[kold weather]

Yep not all that surprising that its was upgraded, got a good circulation with it and once there was proof it was a closed circulation it was always likely to get upgraded. Convection isn't stunning but it iss deep in places esp on the western quadrants of the depression, land interaction maybe somewhat limiting the convection to the east but its not preventing it as the system has a large moisture coverage to work with. There is also real hints of banding starting to occur now as well, which fits with the idea that the TD is getting stronger.

Track is taking TD-1E slowly northwards towards central America. Main risk will no doubt be the huge rains that the system will be creating given both its slow movement plus the ample amounts of moisture present. I still think that given its good structure preesently and the convective bursts that keep occuring near the center, that this will become the first tropical storm of the EPAC season. I don't think it dhas the time to get much more above the minimal level needed for a TS but nonetheless I think we will get Alma from this.

[Cookie]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200801.html

Storm Alert issued at 29 May, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression 01E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Nicaragua

probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours

Costa Rica

probability for TS is 70% currently

Honduras

probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

El Salvador

probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Managua (12.2 N, 86.3 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Rivas (11.4 N, 85.8 W)

probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Liberia (10.6 N, 85.4 W)

probability for TS is 50% currently

Somoto (13.5 N, 86.6 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Matagalpa (12.9 N, 85.9 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Tegucigalpa (14.1 N, 87.2 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

[kold weather]

TD 1E is looking much better now and its worthy of an update because it appears to have developed a CDO over the last 3hrs and some very deep convection has developed, so no surprise if it does get upgraded next forecast.

Also should be noted there is a real risk of RI occuring over the next 6-9hrs before landfall, good unflow channel has developed across most of the system, deepconvection is in place and IR even had a slight warm spot in the center of the CDO recently.

EDIT---Yep its going to be upgraded to tropical storm Alma next forecast, fully expected given the current structure and shpa eit has.

Edited May 29, 2008 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

Alma has certainly intensified pretty quickly and is now at 55kts. An eye like feature has even been noted as Alma moves inland. Alma is likely to cause widespread flooding to parts of Central America over the next couple days.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 29 May, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ALMA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Nicaragua

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Honduras

probability for TS is 80% currently

El Salvador

probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Managua (12.2 N, 86.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently

probability for TS is 95% currently

Rivas (11.4 N, 85.8 W)

probability for TS is 65% currently

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Costa Rica

probability for TS is 45% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Somoto (13.5 N, 86.6 W)

probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours

Matagalpa (12.9 N, 85.9 W)

probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours

Tegucigalpa (14.1 N, 87.2 W)

probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours

San Salvador (13.7 N, 89.2 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

[Iceberg]

Slim possibility of re-entry in the Gom still, GFDL just about takes the LLCC over water as a CAT 1.

Edited May 30, 2008 by Iceberg

[Somerset Squall]

Interesting possibility that, but as you said, a pretty slim one. A northwestward bend in the track is likely to keep Alma over land until degeneration into a remnat low within 24hrs.

Interesting info from NHC:

ALMA IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM...IN THE AVAILABLE RECORDS...TO

MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IT ALSO

MADE LANDFALL FARTHER EAST THAN ANY PREVIOUS EASTERN PACIFIC

TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WAS THE FIRST TO DO SO ON THE PACIFIC COAST

OF NICARAGUA.

[kold weather]

Yep the track Alma took was extremely easterly for a tropical cyclone in the EPAC.

Anyway Alma weakening overland and I suspect whilst it may breifly enter the BOC it will go back overland pretty soon after and probably die-off. However there is still likely to be a heck of a lot of energy with the region and some models have been splitting the energy with one area going off towards the BOC and another possibly heading further north and staying in the Sw Caribbean. If that does happen then there are certainly chances for re-development.

Still its all very complicated right now, the best bet is that it ends up close to the BOC and we could see a new system develop from the energy of Alma...not a huge risk but its there. I also wouldn't rule out another system forming from the broad region of lower pressure over the SW caribbean, may even have some help from split energy from Alma...we will see!

[Somerset Squall]

I find it very interesting that a tropical cyclone has never been recorded so far east in the East Pacific, is there any reason why other storms haven't formed in the immediate area that Alma did? I understand that most storms track west-northwest in this basin and this one instead pushed east and then north but I find it very surprising that there hasn't ever been a recorded storm similar to Alma.

Certainly a lot of moisture in the area at the moment, a case of wait and see in regards to potential development over the next few days.

Edited May 30, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

thanks for the great updates as ever guys :lol: