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Atlantic Invest Thread 2008


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I agree that development into a Tropical Depression should occur in around 36 hours, in terms of strength and track, i do expect it to reach major hurricane status however i see either a straight hit on Florida, or a 'Dean' like path, curving quite sharply into Cuba.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

I agree SB dean does look like a good trend follower. Still very very early though.

Looks to bet getting better on floater 2, still no CDO but banding features and rotation all evident.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

The disturbance that'll form into TD3 later today is a lot better positioned to become a nasty storm. If it drifts over the windies before fully deciding what to be then we may have our first major landfall of the season.

Some of the forecast models for Bertha seemed to be showing this storm form towards the end of there forecast period and at least 1 sequence had it looking very nasty by the last frame.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Latest from NHC it won't be long.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE

LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.

THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOMETIME

TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Circulation with this wave is clearly evident now and it is slowly organising but the thing that is holding it back as of now is a lack of deep convection over the center. The area with the ITCZ to the south is now decaying which may allow greater convective development closer to the center but we will have to wait and see. I'd have still thought that we will see a tropical depression in the next 24hrs but its no certainty.

Until it develops I don't want to make any call on the future track other then to say the whole of the Caribbean needs to watch this very closely.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

This is from ;

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

and shows how the Atlantic is for storm/'cane formation/develpment.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Convection looks poor at the moment, it could be 24+ hours untill we see development.

Does anybody have the link to the shear charts??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Looks to me as if there are two centers and that is causing the lack of orginisation.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Hmmm the system is certainly lacking a certain something at the moment, my guess if looking at the convergence charts they are actually showing divergence which is surpressing any convection occuring close to the center. There is still pluses of convection around the center but they are currently weakening and there are hints of the circulation opening up. Probably not great chances now but as always needs watching.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Yesterday afternoon this was starting to look pretty dire.

I can see some improvement though this morning. Still not a certainty to evolve but a small area of convection is apparent over the centre. Circulation remain good. Ships is back on it again as well. Generally good agreement for gradual strengthening and a straight East track. Still only 50/50 odds on this making a TS let alone anything else though.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

If the centre is in the left blob, then i'd say we will have Tropical Depression 3 whithin 6 hours!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The center is still elongated, the best estimates is on the eastern suide of the large convective blob but not directly under it which is probably a sign of shear being present on this system from the east. Sat estimates are still holding at 2.0 however NHC will not upgrade unless clear signs of better organisation occur or IF recon can find a clear closed LLC tomorrow afternoon if they decide to go out and visit it.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

Must of been durinal heating because it looks quite ragged again and is encountering dry air, its best chance is if the center can relocate.

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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

Things are looking a bit better this morning.

Edited by James M
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA...(LESSER ANTILLES)

FLIGHT ONE...TEAL 70

A. 16/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST

C. 16/1545Z

D. 13.5N 56.0W

E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO...TEAL 71

A. 17/0600Z, 1200Z

B. AFXXX 02AAA CYCLONE

C. 17/0400Z

D. 14.0N 60.0W

E. 17/0500Z TO 17/1200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Recon planned for 22:00 our time...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

Looking at that, i'd say that we have TD3 already, however thwy will probably wait until recon has been in before making it official.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...inds/wg8shr.GIF

I should also point out that after 48-72 hours, there looks to be almost no shear or dry air present.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Some very interesting developments and a perfect time for a recon.

Latest Microwave passes indicate a very different storm, with 40+Kt winds and some good looking features.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Its getting sheared from the west and thats only going to get worse as it gets further west, indeed the shear is forecast to remain above 20kts now for the next 4-5 days which will mean its going to have a very hard time getting any stronger from this point onwards.

Still winds are likely in the 30-35kts range and so even if recon finds no LLC today the results in the windward islands will likely be the same anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

Very sheared look...

Does anybody know what recon is reporting??

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

600 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST COMPLETED

ITS MISSION IN THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE

WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION...

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM LACKS A SINGLE WELL

DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY

ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS

AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SYSTEM IS NOT BEING CLASSIFIED AS A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.

REGARDLESS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE

WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES

WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD

BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. FOR

INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM

YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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