Atlantic Invest Thread 2008

[Iceberg]

As well as 94L we now also have 95L and 96L. A very promising system is due to leave Africa in 4/5 days time and has a good chance of developing but that's for another thread.

94L is still a possibility(even though circulation is not good on it. SHIPS and GFDL take it to hurricane and take it out to the GOM where anything is possible.

95L has good circulation, but it due to hit land very very soon, might make it into the pacific though and carry on.

[Somerset Squall]

We currently have three invests in the Atlantic: what we have been monitoring 94L:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT

200 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CURACAO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25

MPH. WHILE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR

DEVELOPMENT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS

INCREASED DURING THE DAY AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS

AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY

WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

95L:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING

NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE

MOVING INLAND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE SPREADING OVER

PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

And now 96L:

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR

NORTH-NORTHEAST.

94L and 96L are the only really ones of interest here, 95L is very near landfall and though well organised probably won't have enough time over water to become a tropical depression. 94L is still having trouble getting organised and closing off the circulation, could be due to shear in the area. 96L originated in the GOM and crossed Florida and is now emerging over the warm waters off the east coast of USA, and therefore convection is increasing around a LLC in the favourable conditions. 94L and 96L as I said seem contenders for development.

Edited July 17, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Iceberg]

96L could well be a coast hugger, see maps below.

ECM took a liking to this one and quickly took it to a hurricane.

To try and help keep track all 4 of the pretty little swirls.

USAF Hurricane Hunter is in 94L at the moment not much to report yet though.

[summer blizzard]

Recon reported anything yet, they should be in until 10pm our time??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

I'd say it still has muliple centres..

What does Devorak have to say??

Shear should begin to relax on 94L in about 36 hours..

Recon may go into 96L on saturday.

[Iceberg]

Dvorak is 0 it's too weak currently i.e it's not got a closed centre. I'd agree that there are perhapes 3 possible future centres for 94L, it needs one of these(preferably the one under the convection to get going.

It still has plenty of time particularly if it's headed for the GOM for strengthening.

As yet Recon still haven't found much more the squals.

[summer blizzard]

The explination i would give for its undevelopement is that it is moving too fast, and as a result the low level centre is detached and cannot claim control.

[kold weather]

The main reason is its getting hit by 25kts of shear right now its just constantly stopping any center from closing off, the fast foward speed ino the shear is not helping it all either.

however 94L does need to be watched. Note the good look that 95L has presently. Whilst this wave is running out of time and we get inland shortly it has favorable conditions and the models prog 94L to reach this region with lower shear within the next 48hrs and from there I can well see some possible development. Exact track is tough to say right now, the models do take this WNW but I think that is totally dependant on both this system strengthening to some degree and also the models correctly estimating the strength of the upper high to the north, they have under-cooked it at times. The interesting thing is recon just found 35kts at flight level and the surface estimates shooted up to 49kts!!

Whilst thats surely too high we probably do have winds getting close to TS strength so even if its not got a closed circulation effects are probably the same. Anyway as it reaches 94L shear decreases and with such high heast content it could well develop into a system.

In the short term the most likely to develop is 96L, its clearly got a closed circulation and whilst hasn't got masses of convection these systems do have a habit of developing pretty fast thanks to the gulf waters which are pretty deep. It does seem like there is some dry air intrusion on the western side from the US which is reducing any convection on that side but where it splaced I think it has a real shot at development, low shear at present with good levels of convergence and decent heat content I suspect this has got a fair chance. The only issue for this is how close it is to land, the further to the NE this can get the better for its development chances.

Overall, 95L is going to run into land soon enough, 94L is close to depression just lacking a closed low, I've got a sneaky feeling it will develop in the western Caribbean where shear is progged to be much lower, 96L probably has a fair chance of doing something in the next 24hrs IMO.

VERY busy Atlantic for July, could be in for an active season at this rate!

[Cookie]

you're spot on kold plenty going on

[Rustynailer]

This site may be of interest to "invest" watchers, the ships marked give weather reports for their areas.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml

Here is one:- http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposit...html?call=A8AL3

Edited July 18, 2008 by Rustynailer

[Iceberg]

94L is pretty close to the coast now and moving westwards. It's proximity to the coast looks like it might be reducing the effect of Shear over the Centre. Convection is flaring well and has recently again started to flare around the centre.

Paths still take this up towards the GOM (IF some strength can be gained), If not it should plough straight into central america.

GFDL takes a CAT 2 and an LA ish hit to the states. This is one possibility rather than a probability IMO. Still lots of things to happen yet.

It has been upto to 30Kt based on the recon.

[Iceberg]

94L has continued to improve in all aspects IMO, rotation is alot better, banding and even evidence of inflow and outflow.

Sustained precip (albeit to the north).

Recon is again going in and a closed centre I think it now likely.

Good chance that this will be upgraded possibly straight to TS later today. (I know I've said that several times.! ).

Tropical models still take him into the GOM, where there is a very good chance of hurricane status being reached and US landfall.

95L is also around and has very good ourflow.

[Iceberg]

Recon is in and measuring winds of 30-40Kt's in the NE sector.

Minimum pressure of 1009 but this was away from the centre, I can't find on recon the closed circulation yet!. But I missed the first bit. Still a good chance of this being upgraded.

[summer blizzard]

000

WONT41 KNHC 181522

DSAAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1125 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

THIS STATEMENT CONCERNS TWO TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN

THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA

CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM

THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL

STORM HAS FORMED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS

SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC

TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER

OFFICE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND

SOUTH CAROLINA IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION COULD FORM TODAY OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM

TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF

GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN

THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES

SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO

YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

I'd say that we have TD3 already, 96L looks like it may be a Tropical Depression as well.

[kold weather]

Well like yesterday no closed low was found with 94L with recon so no upgrade however it does look good, there are hints of banding features as well around a mid level low that is clearly evident. Upper level low continues to pose problems for forecasts in terms of strength over the next 36hrs, if it drops to close to the circulation shear will commence but for now its helping the outflow.

As for 96L, a big burst of convection has formed over the LLC and given its current look I think its a matter of hours before we see this upgraded to TD3 IMO still we will see!

[Iceberg]

Your right KW, 96L is now TD 3. Looks OK, but thats a discussion for another thread.

I actually disagree with NHC(twice already!). They are probably right, but the rotation is very good on 94L currently, looking at the loops precip is clearly firing off from the centre(indicating that the energy is coming from the tropical core). Winds due to the rotation are at 40-45Kt according to quikscat and again were not that far from the centre.

I am 80% certain that this will achieve hurricane status and rather quickly. But first we have to get named.

GFDL this morning is very scary giving the US a direct CAT 5 hit, not very far from New Orleans, this general path is one that GFDL has been mooting for awhile. Some backup from GFS a global model at last as well.

Edited July 19, 2008 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

Yet to form still but HWRF take it to a CAT 4 going on CAT 5 as well with a Texas hit. ECM now support development as a weak hurricane hit into Texas.

[kold weather]

IMO 94L doesn't look all that good, any surface feature is long gone and the MLC is now the main driver. I think this is going to have a far better chance of developing if it can reach the Gulf/BoC. I think there is little chance this will become quite as strong as those high resolution models prog, it really would have to deepen at an amazing rate.

The thing with this system is that it just can't get a surface feature going, its looked really good at times,esp yresterday yet stil ldidn't have a surface feature which is not a great sign. Still I find it hard not to believe that at some point a surface feature will form maybe further NW but we will have to wait and see.

[Iceberg]

GFDL latest still has it as a strong CAT 3 on the Texas/Alabama border.

The nearest bouy data I can find had pressure min of 1007 and sustained winds of 29Kts. This was to the south of the system I believe and away from the core precip.

This fully supports a current 35-40Kt in the NE Quad as shown by Quikscat.

It does seem to struggle creating a centre, with 2 or 3 possibilities again. I think there is a core one.

Once in the GOM though conditions are forecasted to be almost perfect with high temps underneath it will be purly the structure of whatever forms that will control the intensity.

[Iceberg]

Recon has just got in.

Highlights so far are.

36.0 knots (~ 41.4 mph)

Tropical Storm

Bit more.

45.7 knots (~ 52.5 mph) at surface

Tropical Storm

Lots of 40+KT stength winds at the surface and up to 52Kt on SFMR.

Good circulation, but we are still awaiting a report that this has generated to the further towards the surface.

[Iceberg]

Still not news about a closed circulation however the vortex data shows that if it's not yet closed, it's very very nearly there.

I would say that this is TS Dolly (what a silly name ! ). But NHC might hold off naming it depending on the flight report.

It has a big wind field and looks very good currently. GFDL again takes it to CAT 3.

000

URNT12 KNHC 191737

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032008

A. 19/17:01:40Z

B. 32 deg 43 min N

078 deg 20 min W

C. NA mb NA m

D. 25 kt

E. 261 deg 049 nm

F. 006 deg 032 kt

G. 267 deg 004 nm

H. EXTRAP 1007 mb

I. 21 C/ 309 m

J. 22 C/ 302 m

K. 21 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1234 / 1

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF308 0103A INVEST OB 04

MAX FL WIND INBOUND 32 KT W QUAD 17:00:20 Z

MAX FL WIND 0UTBOUND 45 KT NE QUAD 17:17:30Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT

[summer blizzard]

Is recon still in?

[Paranoid]

Recon came out and still didn't find a closed circulation (i wonder if this system will ever make TD/TS status...)

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE

BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE

NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...LOCATED ABOUT 130

MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE

IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND THAT THE SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT

HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE

ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND IS PRODUCING

WINDS OF 40-45 MPH TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR

DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT

JAMAICA...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND

TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS

SYSTEM.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A FEW

THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Iceberg]

Recon are heading back in again !.

[summer blizzard]

Recon are heading back in again !.

They saying anything yet?

[Iceberg]

They are just on the outskirts now. min pressure of 1006.