Atlantic Invest Thread 2008

[Iceberg]

A huge swave of 35+Kt flight winds.

NOAA2 05AAA INVEST HDOB 27 20080720

131830 1813N 08152W 9606 00466 0129 +224 +208 145035 037 025 004 00

131900 1814N 08154W 9600 00472 0129 +222 +210 146034 035 027 004 00

131930 1814N 08157W 9604 00468 0129 +221 +211 145037 039 031 002 00

132000 1815N 08159W 9601 00469 0129 +220 +208 145038 039 029 003 00

132030 1815N 08201W 9604 00465 0129 +219 +208 144039 041 028 006 00

132100 1816N 08203W 9603 00466 0127 +223 +203 143042 044 033 005 00

132130 1817N 08205W 9602 00467 0125 +226 +196 141048 049 036 005 00

132200 1817N 08207W 9602 00463 0123 +228 +196 137048 049 038 000 00

132230 1818N 08209W 9601 00464 0124 +222 +204 138047 048 035 002 00

132300 1818N 08211W 9601 00467 0125 +217 +211 136043 044 032 002 03

132330 1817N 08213W 9602 00465 0124 +225 +197 136048 049 034 000 00

132400 1817N 08215W 9603 00465 0124 +226 +196 136048 049 035 000 00

132430 1817N 08218W 9602 00467 0124 +227 +193 135049 049 035 001 00

132500 1816N 08220W 9601 00467 0123 +224 +199 133048 049 033 003 00

132530 1816N 08222W 9602 00462 0121 +229 +194 130047 048 035 003 03

132600 1815N 08224W 9600 00461 0120 +229 +199 130044 045 999 999 03

132630 1814N 08225W 9601 00464 0121 +226 +206 131043 043 037 002 00

132700 1813N 08226W 9601 00463 0120 +222 +211 132041 041 036 001 00

132730 1811N 08227W 9603 00457 0120 +223 +209 133039 040 035 001 00

132800 1810N 08229W 9601 00461 0118 +224 +213 130037 038 035 001 00

T ratings now upto 1.5 which is the same as Cristobel.

Consolidation has seemed to occur around a point further north than the models are suggesting.

Yet to hear from the NOAA aircraft re any kind of centre but that looks for the life of me like a CDO. Winds were certainly strong enough to support TS Dolly if NHC want to play ball. The northward centre would be important as it would indicated a southern states hit.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

I'd say that we have a 45KT Tropical Storm!

[Paranoid]

I'd be tempted to agree... but considering as we've been saying that it's about to classed as a TS for so long...

[Iceberg]

I agree paraniod looking at the high res scats I am still failing to see any circulation accept in the high clouds.

It looks like a TS, smells like a TS but might well still be a dressed up imposter.

[dallas]

I agree paraniod looking at the high res scats I am still failing to see any circulation accept in the high clouds.

It looks like a TS, smells like a TS but might well still be a dressed up imposter.

Is this the one that could drop into the GOF?

[Somerset Squall]

Is this the one that could drop into the GOF?

Might well do Dallas, needs watching.

I think we have TS Dolly:

[Paranoid]

Fingers, toes and other posable appendages crossed...

Are there any animated sat images of the storm?

Also.. i am confused by this http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

EDIT: We have Dolly , confirmed here

000

WTNT24 KNHC 201539

TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008

1545 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

AT 1145 AM EDT...1545 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE

BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE

WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 84.2W AT 20/1545Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

34 KT.......100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

12 FT SEAS..100NE 175SE 100SW 60NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 84.2W AT 20/1545Z

AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.7N 86.3W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.1N 89.5W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.2N 92.2W...OVER GULF OF MEXICO

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 96.0W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 97.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 100.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 84.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

Edited July 20, 2008 by Paranoid

[dallas]

Fingers, toes and other posable appendages crossed...

Are there any animated sat images of the storm?

Also.. i am confused by this http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Here we go ...........meet Dolly

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Paranoid]

About time i guess

[Iceberg]

Well we have invest 97L now just coming of Africa. Ships progs slow intensification to a TS. Longer term it looks like an early curve and a Fish but you never can tell.

[tinybill]

http://ralphstropicalweather.homestead.com...WeatherOut.html

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 15-20 MPH.

[Somerset Squall]

We now have invest 98L very near the cape verde islands. It's looking pretty good at the moment with a well defined centre and healthy convection. NHC say this system could become a tropical depression before moving over cooler waters later tomorrow. Further down the line, if the low can survive, waters get warmer so there may be development this weekend/early next week if it doesn't develop now, providing shear isn't high.

[Iceberg]

I believe 98L has died and has been re-born as 99L.

The below are the latest, it might well make a TD. Circulation and rotation is very good, convection is lacking, slightly warmer water are ahead though and shear is light although will likely dampen activity.

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992008) 20080801 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

080801 1200 080802 0000 080802 1200 080803 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.4N 35.4W 18.5N 38.9W 18.3N 42.4W 18.4N 45.9W

BAMD 18.4N 35.4W 19.0N 37.8W 19.6N 40.3W 20.5N 42.8W

BAMM 18.4N 35.4W 19.0N 38.3W 19.3N 41.3W 20.1N 44.4W

LBAR 18.4N 35.4W 19.0N 38.8W 19.6N 42.3W 20.5N 45.8W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

080803 1200 080804 1200 080805 1200 080806 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.6N 49.4W 20.6N 56.0W 23.8N 61.8W 27.0N 64.7W

BAMD 21.6N 45.4W 24.4N 50.6W 27.7N 54.7W 30.5N 53.9W

BAMM 21.2N 47.5W 24.5N 53.7W 28.7N 57.4W 32.1N 54.3W

LBAR 21.7N 49.0W 25.6N 54.2W 30.9N 55.3W 34.5N 52.3W

SHIP 37KTS 43KTS 48KTS 51KTS

DSHP 37KTS 43KTS 48KTS 51KTS

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE

EASTERN ATLANTIC...ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE

ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT VERY

CONDUCIVE...SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT

ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Paranoid]

The atlantic has gone very quiet since Dolly dissapated, i wonder if the other months will be as active as July was.

[kold weather]

Well 99L is now once again firing up convection nearby though its presentation still looks somewhat sheared. Its hard to know whether we have a closed LLC at the surface despite it clearly having a strong circulation at some levels but even if its open its probably not far off from being closed off. I think this could well become a depression now its once again over some warmer waters again and its track should now stay W/WNW for a few days before possibly slowly recurving towards a weakness, can't rule out a possible threat to Bermuda again however we need to watch this.

We also have the new 90L which is formed from a wave to the south-west of the Cape Verde islands around 11.5N. There does appear to be a mid level circulation but doesn't seem like there is anything like a LLC with this system just yet but you tend to find these can take a long while to gain a circulation, just like pre-Dolly. Still I want to see how convection holds in the next 12-24hrs before getting too interested. Despite that track looks pretty close to due west for the next 72hrs and we could well see this getting rather close to the Caribbean...

biggest threat for this system is a very large SAL outbreak coming out of Africa at the moment.

Edited August 2, 2008 by kold weather

[iceageian85]

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND

SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE

MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY OR SUNDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT

DAY OR TWO. IF NECESSARY...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE

THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[Somerset Squall]

TD5 around the corner?

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT

160 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN

ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAY BECOME

MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES

GENERALLY WESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS

FORMED. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Invest 91L:

[kold weather]

Looks pretty close to me SS, its taking on a pretty classic Gulf pf Mexico look, where the system is lop-sided with the convection on the eastern side of any circulation. This is due to the dry air wrapping nito the circulation from the land and also some light northerly shear which isn't helping.

Despite that recon is presently in 91L trying to find a closed circulation, if one is found then will likely be upgraded to TD5...indeed given recon has found winds that support 35kts we may even have our next tropical storm from this pretty soon.

[Cookie]

anything to keep an eye on in the Atlantic appears to have gone very quite?

Edited August 10, 2008 by cookie

[Somerset Squall]

There are a couple cape verde tropical waves at the moment, they aren't invests yet though but they may develop further down the line if they hold themselves together going into the Carribean.

The NOAA's prediction for the rest of the season here

Still looking like we will have an above average season. The calm before the storms perhaps? Having said that Edouard only dissipated on the 6th so it hasn't been quiet that long . As we head towards the second half of August/first half of September we should see the storms ramp up as this period is the peak of the season.

EDIT: one of the disturbances has actually now been classified as invest 92L. Looks like some decent convection with this one and warmer waters lie to the west so there may be development next week, we will have to wait and see as ever. Some of the models have been hinting at something developing in this area over the last few days.

Edited August 10, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

thanks mate.

its long enough trust me

[kold weather]

Lots of Cape Verde activity, one of which is indeed 92L. GFS model doesn't really do much with it as it tracks it into shear but I suspect the GFS takes it too quickly to the NW and a more westerly track at least for a little while seems a safe bet IMO. GFS does develop the wave behind it very strongly but it has missed systems before, most recently being Felix...

Anyway there is some shear on this system presently which may only mean slow development but it has good convective coverage with it and at the very least a pretty strong MLC but there is hints of easterly shear as I mentioned. This should keep it on a more westerly track IMO and also not quite as strong but still probably could be a depression sooner rather then later if convection keeps up.

[Somerset Squall]

92L didn't look at all good this morning but now the LLC has jumped northwards away from the drier air to the west and thus convection has increased again. Conditions are looking good for a tropical depression to form in the next couple of days.

We also have invest 93L, to the southeast of 92L. Convection is deep but sporadic over a very broad LLC. Slow development is the way ahead for this one, if there is any development at all.

[Jack Wales]

From NOAA...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS

LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF

THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY

REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR

FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE

POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD

LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE

CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER

ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE

NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

NOAA Website

Edited August 11, 2008 by Jack Wales

[Jack Wales]

92L now appears to be more organised, so with stronger convection and relatively low levels of shear we could see TD Fay today.

Sat Image

NOAA have upgraded their forecast as follows...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS

LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF

THE LESSER ANTILLES. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY

HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD

FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM ON

TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY.

93L continues to show strong convection but the system still appears somewhat disorganised probably due to shear levels. There is still potential to develop into TD over the next few days and IMO if shear levels drop the amount of convection within it should aid rapid development into a powerful system.

Edited August 12, 2008 by Jack Wales