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Tropical Storm Arthur


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    We have the first storm of the Atlantic season (cat 5 take note for the comp :lol: ). The remnant moisture from Alma developed into Tropical Storm Arthur and made landfall in Belize earlier today.

    TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008

    100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

    THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN

    BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT WAS CROSSING THE COAST OF BELIZE

    EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP DATA

    AND A NOAA BUOY 42056 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL

    STORM FORCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BUT BECAUSE

    ARTHUR IS ALREADY INLAND..WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A

    POSSIBILITY THAT ARTHUR REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS IF IT MOVES

    BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

    BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/07. ARTHUR IS ALREADY

    SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEREFORE A

    GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST. NONE OF THE

    AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS ARTHUR NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAY

    OF CAMPECHE.

    THIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE

    SURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL

    AMERICA YESTERDAY.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 31/1700Z 18.1N 88.5W 35 KT

    12HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND

    24HR VT 01/1200Z 19.5N 91.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER

    36HR VT 02/0000Z 19.5N 93.0W 30 KT

    48HR VT 02/1200Z 19.0N 94.0W 35 KT

    72HR VT 03/1200Z 19.0N 95.0W 35 KT

    96HR VT 04/1200Z 18.5N 96.5W 20 KT...INLAND

    120HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$

    FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Well the first named storm and IMO its rather controversial. Phase analysis indicates that it's not realy a true warm core system. GFDL has it initialised as cold core, UKM marginal.

    Bouy data is well from the centre and could be more squal related than from a TS centre.

    But whether I agree with the classification or not we certainly have the first named storm of the season.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Forget the phase cahrts Iceberg they are at best only a haslf decent guide, even without any recon its clear its developing via warm cored processes.

    Anyway have to admit I was not expecting to see Aurthur quite so soon. Now that its inland weakening should occur unless we see strong convective bursting...believe it or not but systems have actually strenghened overland when they were weak as short term convective bursting can breifly raise the wind maxes as they drag down the strongest winds.

    Track continues to take this system off to the WNW/NW into the Yucatan and probably slow weakening should occur.

    After that its totally dependant on the exacts of the track. If it takes a slightly more westerly track it will eventually die out over the Mexico, whilst if it takes a more NW route then it will re-ermge into the BoC and that could lead to some pretty rapid re-development as that region is very prone for rapidly developing storms.

    Just will have to wait till tomorrow morning to get a better idea of what is happening with Arthur. I have to admit whilst I did think it was looking increasingly impressive before I went to work this morning, it was clearly further along then I had believed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Certainly stands a good chance of developing once back over water.

    Phase charts arn't perfect but they are generally pretty accurate.. My take on it looking at the evidence is that there is broad circulation, without a core which has been left from Alma)the LP clearly shows this. There is also alot of instability associated with this system fed by the moisture available.

    The core is in the process of forming, but it certainly isn't the driving force and the winds arn't associated with the warm core, but instead are associated with the broad circulation and heavy scrawly precip. It certainly was/is developing and it's a nice way to start the season with a named storm to watch.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Yep thats true Iceberg is that ther eis a lot of instability being helped by the general area of voricity present in the region which is also helping to develop the system. Its come from the broad region of lower pressure that Alma did but as you say they are clearly two seperate enterties as Alma's LLC died out over land. i do agree with you that it does have a broad circulation and thats probably aiding its sustained efforts overland at the moment along with the higher voricity is helpin to keep thunderstorms flaring up along the circulation. As lon as that keeps going even if it is downgraded to a TD if it can make it back out to sea then it will quickly re-develop again.

    I may have been a little harsh on the phase charts they do have their worth but I think at the moment its certainly showing more properties of a warm core then anything else, if it was cold cored at all you'd expect the wind maxima to be well away from any developing system which doesn't appear to be the case here. It may well have a cold core aloft I'm not sure to be honest but from the looks of things the lower level circulation is certainly a warm core.

    IF it gets into the BoC watch for quick re-development of the convection and some good strengthening...big IF still of course!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Location: Hampshire

    Im looking to possible development from the wave just of the coast of Africa. With regards to arthur i believe if it does exit into the BoC then we will have a strong T.S or maybe even Cat.1 :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Arthur remains a 35kt tropical storm this evening and still looks fairly decent on satellite imagery despite spending around 9 hours over land. The official NHC forecast still indicates slight intensification over the BOC, but it's still a big if whether it actually manages to re-emerge over those waters.

    20080531.2145.goes12.x.vis1km_high.01LARTHUR.35kts-1005mb-183N-886W.100pc.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    A bit late but hey

    Tropical Storm ARTHUR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Mexico

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Belize

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Guatemala

    probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Cozumel (20.4 N, 87.0 W)

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Chetumal (18.5 N, 88.3 W)

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)

    probability for TS is 95% currently

    Belize City (17.5 N, 88.2 W)

    probability for TS is 95% currently

    Belmopan (17.1 N, 88.8 W)

    probability for TS is 85% currently

    Merida (21.0 N, 89.6 W)

    probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

    Campeche (19.9 N, 90.5 W)

    probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Coatzacoalcos (18.2 N, 94.4 W)

    probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

    Villahermosa (18.0 N, 92.9 W)

    probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)

    probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

    THE ATLANTIC LIVES!

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    at200801.gif

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200801.html

    Storm Alert issued at 1 Jun, 2008 9:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm ARTHUR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Mexico

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Belize

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Guatemala

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Honduras

    probability for TS is 80% currently

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Chetumal (18.5 N, 88.3 W)

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Belize City (17.5 N, 88.2 W)

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Belmopan (17.1 N, 88.8 W)

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Merida (21.0 N, 89.6 W)

    probability for TS is 80% currently

    Villahermosa (18.0 N, 92.9 W)

    probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

    San Pedro Sula (15.5 N, 88.0 W)

    probability for TS is 65% currently

    Coatzacoalcos (18.2 N, 94.4 W)

    probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

    Tuxtla Gutierrez (16.7 N, 93.1 W)

    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Huehuetenango (15.3 N, 91.5 W)

    probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Arthur has been downgraded to a 30kt tropical depression. The depression is now moving west-southwest and is expected to continue on this track so it's increasingly unlikely that Arthur will emerge into the Bay of Campeche. The NHC say that Arthur may degenerate into a remnant low as early as tonight, as the circulation is now very elongated and increasingly ill defined.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    Taken from metcheck.com

    Arthur Rocks On

    June 1st and it's start of the Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic. Expected to be an interesting season, we already have Tropical Storm Arthur sitting across the Southern Yucatan Peninsula bringing strong winds and torrential rain. The season runs from June 1st until November 30th and is expected to see an above average season for the named storms. Names we can expect to look forward to this year include Dolly, Nana and Ike. Long term averages show that in an average season we can expect 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The Colorado State University issued their forecast last month and said we can expect 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes this year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Like Alma, Arthur has a couple interesting facts regarding it's formation.

    From Wiki:

    Arthur is the first tropical storm to form in May since Tropical Storm Arlene in 1981. Other systems have formed (such as Subtropical Storm Andrea in 2007), but they have started out as subtropical. The formation of Arthur also marks the first time that a named storm formed in May for two consecutive years.
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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Well that's an interesting start to the season! 2nd of June and one name gone. I'd better get back into my summer routines!

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