Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[ribster]

Another lovely day at the pole and ,if you look to the middle distance, you can see other 'puddles' forming. Temp still 5c so no surprises that melt should be occurring.

I imagined any breakup to be from the edge in but it looks like it will be the environment it's sitting in that does for this ice and not erosion from the seaward side (facing the Bering straights).

For those who find all of this 'humdrum', we, good for you! I ,personally, have never seen/heard of the likes before and we are only at the start of summer melt proper :o

GW, can you explain something for me? If as I'm led to believe, the planet has spent 70% of it's history ice free, doesn't it stand to reason that it will happen again? If so, perhaps we are entering one of those periods (possibly - although I don't believe that's definite), where in the not too distant future we will become ice free and further down the line enter a colder period with expanding ice. I'm all for saving energy, alternative power generation, but I really don't think it's as simple as that.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The main problem is that it's possible that humans might have never inhabited a planet with a totally ice-free Arctic, and thus it would be a first for humans under that scenario. It depends on whether humans were around when it was last ice-free!

[davehsug]

Ignore that last message, I've found it: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html

Clearly a fraudulent image. probably pirated into the system by some delusional denier. Where are the water pools Jethro? Where are they :o

[jethro]

Clearly a fraudulent image. probably pirated into the system by some delusional denier. Where are the water pools Jethro? Where are they

I'm guessing elsewhere in the Arctic where melt happens first in the summer? Certainly looks a tad in the other picture, be interesting to watch the two cameras over the summer melt season.

[Chris Knight]

I'm guessing elsewhere in the Arctic where melt happens first in the summer? Certainly looks a tad in the other picture, be interesting to watch the two cameras over the summer melt season.

Web Cam 1 was set up to view the Weather Station. It was moved on April 9, 2008 and no longer viewed the Weather station, but on April 20, 2008 it was readjusted, so that the weather station was easier to see in the photos. You can see the path through the snow made by the deployment team in photos on April 20.

Web Cam 2 is mounted with Web Cam 1, looking in the opposite direction. It ran for a while, but stopped on April 9th due to a cable problem. This problem was fixed on April 20, 2008. The two posts are snow-stakes, with orange and white stripes every 10 cm.

from http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/np2008/gallery_np_questions.html

NOAA_2 webcam has problems - it hasn't sent an image since 28 June

Camera 1 has this image at the same time:

shows how fast the environment can change up there.

Everybody's right

[jethro]

You're a star Chris, hope they get that camera fixed, be interesting to see a new image when they do; as you say things change quickly.

[Gray-Wolf]

Since your rainy image we've had 3 days of the above. If you check the size and number of the meltwater pools you'll see how 'chinook' the sun alone can be!

I'm told 'average' temps at the pole are supposed to be -1.5c and the haven't dipped below 3.5c since I've been viewing (7 days now)

Once we have a 'mobile pack' it won't matter if we achieve 'average temps' somewhere in the polar region as ,in all probability, the ice will have adopted it's clockwise flow and be doing 'the microwave' on the remaining ice........

Clearly a fraudulent image. probably pirated into the system by some delusional denier. Where are the water pools Jethro? Where are they

pop onto the MODIS sat image site and ,using either TERRA or AQUA have a few fly overs (at 250m resolution). You can't quite see the bouys (well I haven't yet) but you can see both how clear it is and the state of fragmentation already present at the pole.

We seem to have lost the 'debating' over ice retention down in Enviro since I started updating the images daily. Very peversely the images are chilling!

Of course, as posted down there, some folk wouldn't even believe their own eyes if dragged ,kicking and screaming, to that meltwater pond and handed a compass

Edited July 1, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[oldsnowywizard]

jees i leave this thread for two days and it turns into crazy town..

Chris - thanks for posting all the info keep it up please!!

GW - i have seen the webcam images.. im assuming it will just be surface meltwater though and ice will still be present below the surface of the water. has anyone got any images of the same area over the last few years to compare? - agreed though its not nice to see up there and we would all hope there was nothing but ice.

late July to mid August tends to be the warments period in the artic, then thins go down hill pretty quickly.. sub zeros temps look set to return quite widely towards this time next week.

as for all of you who want to see trade routes open up.. open up another thread but dont add ridiculous comments to this thread please..

[Mr Sleet]

One thing I find interesting is that the single year ice on the Siberian side which was supposed to vapourise upon Sun up seems to be very resilient.

Edited July 1, 2008 by Mr Sleet

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well, it's rare for the Siberian ice to start melting significantly until later in the season. Very few years had much if any melting there come early July, last year being an exception.

[Chris Knight]

jees i leave this thread for two days and it turns into crazy town..

Chris - thanks for posting all the info keep it up please!!

GW - i have seen the webcam images.. im assuming it will just be surface meltwater though and ice will still be present below the surface of the water. has anyone got any images of the same area over the last few years to compare? - agreed though its not nice to see up there and we would all hope there was nothing but ice.

late July to mid August tends to be the warments period in the artic, then thins go down hill pretty quickly.. sub zeros temps look set to return quite widely towards this time next week.

as for all of you who want to see trade routes open up.. open up another thread but dont add ridiculous comments to this thread please..

OSW, you can find images back to 2002 here

There is also a table of links for all the weather and buoy position data, with previous year images in the "all images" section:

New! Web Cam animations:

2008 animations from web cams 1, 2, 3, 4 (updated weekly)

2007 animations from web cams 1, 2, 3

2006 animations from web cams 1, 3

2005 animations from web cam 8

2004 animations from web cams 1, 2

2003 animations from web cams 1, 2

2002 animations from web cam 1

To ensure animations play within a player (e.g. QuickTime) rather than the browser, right-click the animation link and download the .mov file to your computer. Double-click the .mov file to start the animation.

• All images Current 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002

• Moods of the North Pole Current 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002

• About the environment 2003 2002

• About the instruments Current 2004 2003 2002

• About the web cam(s) Current 2007 2006 2005 2003 2002

• Weather data Current 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002

The animations are fun, but slow to load, but show how the various parts of the deployment move around with the shifting ice.

Whereas the webcams show the temperature on the outside of the cam and inside the enclosure, the actual temperatures from the weather station is here, and show air temperatures hovering just below zero, which is what you might expect if there is ice and water coexisting on the surface of the ice floes.

Here's the most recent data from the T1 sensor (there are 2 on the station).

[Gray-Wolf]

jees i leave this thread for two days and it turns into crazy town..

GW - i have seen the webcam images.. im assuming it will just be surface meltwater though and ice will still be present below the

I think if you take a look at this we are now 'clean through' the ice sheet. The far bank of what, 4 days ago, was a puddle is showing ice down to depth of about 1 to 1.5m and dark water below.

Scrabble as you may to show 1st July north pole melt as similar you won't.

[Mr Sleet]

Well, it's rare for the Siberian ice to start melting significantly until later in the season. Very few years had much if any melting there come early July, last year being an exception.

QED.

I think if you take a look at this we are now 'clean through' the ice sheet. The far bank of what, 4 days ago, was a puddle is showing ice down to depth of about 1 to 1.5m and dark water below.

Scrabble as you may to show 1st July north pole melt as similar you won't.

I think that's amazing how you can tell water depth from a webcam image. I'm a keen angler and that skill would be useful, save plumbing the depth etc- what's the secret ?

And with practically no effort at all, I have found this image 7/7/2003 showing a large melt pool at the NP !

Edited July 1, 2008 by Mr Sleet

[Mr Sleet]

The NW passage in the Canadian archipelago seems to have undergone a refreeze in the last week.

[Chris Knight]

The Alfred Wegener Institute polar research program is underway for 2008. Here are the first two weekly reports from the RV Polarstern:

Expedition summary and itinerary

The first cruise leg of the expedition ARK-XXIII to the Arctic will start on 12 July 2008 from Bremerhaven, Germany. The research vessel Polarstern will be heading directly towards the Greenland coast at 74°N and enter ice-covered waters close to Greenland. Two essential components of the research programme - both incorporated in the IPY - are:

- Gedetic work on Greenland. Vertical movements of the continent which are the result of the decreasing load of the ice sheet on the continent will be determined.

- Oceanographic investigations in the Greenland Sea basin. Dynamic changes with respect to physical, chemical and biological water properties in the region will be investigated within an international context. In this basin major modifications of the hydrographic structure occured in recent years due to variations in the fresh water cycle.

The cruise leg will end at Longyearbyen, Spitsbergen, on 2 July 2008.

Cruise Schedule

12.6.2008 Departure from Bremerhaven, Germany

2.7. 2008 Arrival at Longyearbyen, Spitsbergen

ARK XXIII/1, Weekly Report No. 1

20 June 2008

Our departure from Bremerhaven on the 12th of June took place under favourite weather conditions so that it was easy for the pilot to disembark. Accordingly, this day saw only few of us suffering from more or less moderate sea sickness. With wind forces smaller than 7 Beaufort, RV Polarstern made good progress. A day after the departure from Bremerhaven we detected a minor fault at an inner part of one of our four main engines. Not a big problem, but some small nevertheless important parts were not on board, as they are not regarded as to belong to the usual set of engine spare parts. In fact, the machine under concern was not needed for the scheduled speed, and in particular not under the fine weather conditions encountered. But as the fault was identified during the early stage of the voyage, the repair with ship’s resources could still be regarded as a routine operation, and – last not least – the engine should be available for the later transit through the pack ice, we decided for a small deviation towards the Norwegian coast from where an on-board helicopter could manage to collect the immediately ordered and timely arrived spare parts from the airport of Bergen. The deviation was reasonable and, due to calm seas, the time loss for the expedition programme marginal.

Overall, the transit took place under good conditions, so that the laboratories could be set up easily during the steaming time and instruments could pass their final performance tests. Thus, we reached the research area in a fully operational state.

During the “night” hours from Wednesday to Thursday we carried out our first helicopter land actions to the Greenland coast with the ship experiencing light to moderate ice conditions. Permanent daylight indicated our short distance from the pole. The geodesists from Dresden and Copenhagen investigate the vertical movement of the earth’s crust on Greenland, which is owed to the modifications of the ice load, with the use of satellite signals. The movement amounts to a few Millimetres per year, and accordingly, high measurement precision is a must.

During the steaming time between the land actions we move through partly heavy pack ice. Despite of this, we perform physical and chemical measurements in the ocean. In this ice covered region it is of particular interest whether the recently observed lack of Pacific Waters - which flow into the central Arctic through Bering Strait and exit it through Fram Strait – persists or whether these waters return to their previously prevailing pathway, as it is suggested by measurements of American colleagues in the ocean north of Greenland.

All on board are well and send best wishes, as do I,

Gereon Budéus, Chief scientist ARK XXIII/1

ARK XXIII/1, Weekly Report No. 2

26 June 2008

Exactly on the day of the summer solstice, i.e. last Friday, we were able to finish the geodetic work on Greenland shortly after the sun had passed our northern meridian. Despite the - due to the relatively early time of the expedition – still dense pack and landfast ice we managed to transport the complete set of instruments by helicopter to Greenland and to install it there. This success was owed much to the favourite weather conditions, which have to be denominated as dazzling in every sense of the expression. Our stopovers in the ice were bearing the names: Jackson Isle, Shannon, and Store Koldewey. From the latter we had to cover so long distances that we were particularly grateful to possess an on board meteorological station with a staff of two. Reliable local weather forecasts are provided by them.

The midnight sun is bright, but not quite as strong as during noon. This resulted in upcoming fog, which made our way through the ice laborious. Naturally, with good sight, everything seems easy: From Polarstern’s bridge the assessment of the ice conditions is fine, satellite images are informative, and it is also possible to perform a helicopter survey to explore the best track for the ship. With bad weather, all three options cease to exist and the radar – not build for this purpose originally – reveals the sparse though best information. The fog accompanied us stubbornly the following days, but in the final end the ice edge was approached.

After we had to leave the ice-covered region last Sunday to the regret of most, we concentrated on mooring work during the remaining part of the week. Four moorings had to be recovered and the same number had to be deployed. Three of them carry autonomously profiling instruments, which measure the physical properties of the water between 100 m depth and the ocean bottom at 3700 m. The forth also carries an autonomous profiling instrument, but works in a reversed fashion: Installed in a water depth of 160 m, an underwater winch pays out rope in order to enable the ascent of the buoyant instrument to the water surface proper. This is a very innovative technique. (Usual moorings cannot contain instruments close to the sea surface because of the rough conditions there.)

A certain difficulty was posed by the fact that the latter system could not be exchanged but had to be redeployed using the same instrument as the year before. After recovery, data had to be extracted immediately, the condition of the instruments had to be checked, energy supplies had to be renewed and the instruments had to be resealed. Clearly, this takes a day or two, and the mooring cannot be redeployed immediately after recovery, as is usual otherwise.

Mooring work has been finished this morning. Now we continue our way eastwards with CTD-stations and collect water for the biologists and chemists.

Everyone on board is well and sends best wishes again, as do I.

Gereon Budéus, Chief scientist ARK XXIII/1

[picog]

I think if you take a look at this we are now 'clean through' the ice sheet. The far bank of what, 4 days ago, was a puddle is showing ice down to depth of about 1 to 1.5m and dark water below.

Scrabble as you may to show 1st July north pole melt as similar you won't.

Are you sure that the ice sheet is completely melted at the NP in the photo you posted? Surely the ice would be thicker than 1-1.5 metres here? I'm not any type of expert, but do enjoy reading the "ice" threads.

[Chris Knight]

I think if you take a look at this we are now 'clean through' the ice sheet. The far bank of what, 4 days ago, was a puddle is showing ice down to depth of about 1 to 1.5m and dark water below.

Scrabble as you may to show 1st July north pole melt as similar you won't.

I doubt it's but a puddle, GW, stop ramping! Don't you know that if it was clear through, there would be a step down to the water level, since 1/10th of the ice would be floating above the water level.

We will know it's "clear through" when everything starts to tilt, when it can't support the weight of the equipment on it. However, the ice is melting fast, and this station will almost certainly not be operational by the end of August, if not sooner.

However, nobody seems to have commented on the colour of the surrounding ice in the image - a dirty brown - whether due to algae, pollution or dust. Not a very good reflector of sunlight now, is it?

Edited July 1, 2008 by Chris Knight

[osmposm]

I suspect that the beigy-grey colour is not real, Chris, but just how the camera reads/reproduces it. What I think the darker tone actually indicates is wet snow/slush on the surface - hence the whiter/dryer bits that stick up, especially noticeable on yesterday morning's image.

The lower albedo problem remains, however.

I agree, by the way, that it looks highly unlikely to be melted right through.....yet!?

Edited July 2, 2008 by osmposm

[Gray-Wolf]

I doubt it's but a puddle, GW, stop ramping! Don't you know that if it was clear through, there would be a step down to the water level, since 1/10th of the ice would be floating above the water level.

We will know it's "clear through" when everything starts to tilt, when it can't support the weight of the equipment on it. However, the ice is melting fast, and this station will almost certainly not be operational by the end of August, if not sooner.

However, nobody seems to have commented on the colour of the surrounding ice in the image - a dirty brown - whether due to algae, pollution or dust. Not a very good reflector of sunlight now, is it?

I have a cold and a brain full of snot........you are of course correct about the floating.

From a quick squizz over the pole you can now clearly see the mass of meltwater pools across it's surface. The edge of the pack on the Bering side is eating in towards the pole and I think ,like last year, the 'breakup' will happen from that side (south of the pole tee-hee) and not through melt alone.

I don't know what the forcast is but it is very clear over big swathes of the arctic today.

Oh yeah! Freeze thaw action. As we all know this is one of the major ways rocks are mechanically weather. We now have a polar ice cap full of meltwater pools and all of that meltwater will exploit the cracks and crevasses in the sheet. Any freeze now could hydraulically smash the remaining ice.....or not?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Current maps suggest that the Asian sector is still doing somewhat better than last year, but on the other hand there are worrying levels of melt in a large section of the ice cap north of Greenland - the main area that survived last year intact.

[Gray-Wolf]

Still no cloud and temps of 5c maybe late August is a little conservative for a polar melt?

[reef]

Still no cloud and temps of 5c maybe late August is a little conservative for a polar melt?

Looking at two images taken today and just 2 days ago it is indeed possible to see that rapid melting is taking place.

Ice concentration/extent charts continue to show massive melting to the North of Greenland. I was always under the impression that this was the last major area of multi-year ice left in the Arctic after last year. So if we lose that it is pretty bad:

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/...MSRE_visual.png

The difference compared to the long-term average continues to grow, though I dont think we will see an extent as low as last summer.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

[Gray-Wolf]

Melt onset earlier than normal

Arctic sea ice extent for June 2008 is close to that for 2007, which went on to reach the lowest minimum since at least 1979. More notably, however, satellite data indicate that melt began significantly earlier than last year over most of the Arctic Ocean. The large area of the Arctic Ocean covered by first-year ice (described in our June analysis) coupled with the early onset of melting may mean more rapid and more severe summer ice retreat than last year.

Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for June 2008 was 11.44 million square kilometers (4.42 million square miles). The magenta line shows the median ice extent for June from 1979 to 2000. Data information —Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

See High Resolution ImageOverview of conditions

Arctic sea ice extent averaged for June stood at 11.44 million square kilometers (4.42 million square miles), 0.72 million square kilometers (0.25 million square miles) less than the 1979 to 2000 average for the month. This is very slightly (0.05 million square kilometers; 0.02 million square miles) lower than the average extent for June 2007, but not the lowest on record, which occurred in June 2006 (see Figure 3).

Figure 2 indicates that on a daily basis, sea ice extent appears slightly higher than 2007 for most of the month. This apparent contradiction arises because of the monthly averaging calculation and because some days may have areas of missing data. To be included as an ice-covered region in the monthly average, the average concentration for that region must exceed 15 percent. So if the concentration is 15 percent for 29 days, but less than 15 percent for 1 day, it will not be included in the average ice extent for the month. Also, since ice extent decreases during June, if there is slightly more missing data in the early part of the month the monthly average could slightly underestimate the sea ice extent.

June sea ice extents in 2008 and 2007 are essentially identical, and near the lowest values for June ever recorded by satellite for the Arctic.

From the NSIDC.

Edited July 3, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.arcus.org/SEARCH/seaiceoutlook/report_may.php

http://www.nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Links to the above article and the 'Search' body with it's monthly reports ,from 19 lead authorities, and forecasts.

[Mr Sleet]

Ice concentration/extent charts continue to show massive melting to the North of Greenland. I was always under the impression that this was the last major area of multi-year ice left in the Arctic after last year. So if we lose that it is pretty bad:

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/...MSRE_visual.png

The difference compared to the long-term average continues to grow, though I dont think we will see an extent as low as last summer.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

I agree, interesting stuff but the situation seems to have improved overnight !