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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Thanks for reading both articles Mr S. .You seemed to have dismissed the content for a clip from the student bodies output......ho -hum :)

As the 'onset' dates show ,and the temp anoms as well, The area to the north of Greenland and the eastern entrance to the NW Passage have not got off to a good start (if ice retention is what we are after).

The slow start over on the Russian side is more than balanced by the rapid starts elsewhere and, lest we forget, ice thicknesses ain't what they used to be so the worry must be that even with a delay we will have dark water by Aug. :)

Even in a thick fog temp's are still above freezing......looks kinda ghostly up there today.

looking at the NSIDC sea ice daily releases there seems to be an issue (again) with either the accuracy of the students doing the guestimates or they are a little behind at C.T.

I would advise using the bodies that provide the uni with their datasets rather than the 'training ground' products :D

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Thame, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Thame, Oxfordshire
Thanks for reading both articles Mr S. .You seemed to have dismissed the content for a clip from the student bodies output......ho -hum :D

I don't need to go to a cesspit to know it's gonna smell :)

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Posted
  • Location: Winchester
  • Location: Winchester

just to pick out a quite interesting image from the nsidc monthly report that GW has already posted about for those who won't read it..

this illustrates the difference in melt onset dates - quite a stark difference this year, doesn't prove anything about where we will end up but of interest none the less?

200807_Figure4.png

Edited by trevw
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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!

I'm sure this must have been discussed before, perhaps in the Climate Change threads - or maybe I'm just being dense - but I am terribly confused about what the record minimum northern hem ice level last September actually was.

Following the various links shown, it's either 4.3m km2 (arcus), 4.13m km2 (nsidc), or about 3.0m km2 (cryosphere today charts).

What's going on here - do they have different definitions of "ice cover"?

Ossie

I don't need to go to a cesspit to know it's gonna smell :D

Are you saying that the sites that give the most detailed data from the most respected scientific organisations working in the field are not worth visiting because you know you won't like what they show? Or have I misunderstood your metaphor?

Edited by osmposm
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Osmposm, there are a few reasons.

They use different resolutions AMSR is higher res than cryosphere.

They use different software to interpret the Sat data which gives a slightly different view.

They might also use a different definition of ice free i.e 5% or 10%. It's not really fair to count a single floating iceberg in the ocean in a particular grid reference as being the extent of the ice sheet, however I don't think they can agree on what's best. Typical really.

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
Osmposm, there are a few reasons.

They use different resolutions AMSR is higher res than cryosphere.

They use different software to interpret the Sat data which gives a slightly different view.

They might also use a different definition of ice free i.e 5% or 10%. It's not really fair to count a single floating iceberg in the ocean in a particular grid reference as being the extent of the ice sheet, however I don't think they can agree on what's best. Typical really.

here's another view, from QUIKSCAT for day 184=2nd July:

D08184.NHEAVEH.GIF

and the interpretation of open ocean:

D08184.NHEIMSK.GIF

also MMAB from NOAA

nh12.gif

Here is the May outlook from Search, which gives the reasons from several research groups, giving the likely estimated September 2008 ice area as follows:

SIO_MayReport_Chart.gif

with eight predicting less ice than last year, and six predicting more.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Melt onset earlier than normal

Arctic sea ice extent for June 2008 is close to that for 2007, which went on to reach the lowest minimum since at least 1979. More notably, however, satellite data indicate that melt began significantly earlier than last year over most of the Arctic Ocean. The large area of the Arctic Ocean covered by first-year ice (described in our June analysis) coupled with the early onset of melting may mean more rapid and more severe summer ice retreat than last year.

200807_Figure1_thumb.png

Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for June 2008 was 11.44 million square kilometers (4.42 million square miles). The magenta line shows the median ice extent for June from 1979 to 2000. Data information —Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

See High Resolution ImageOverview of conditions

Arctic sea ice extent averaged for June stood at 11.44 million square kilometers (4.42 million square miles), 0.72 million square kilometers (0.25 million square miles) less than the 1979 to 2000 average for the month. This is very slightly (0.05 million square kilometers; 0.02 million square miles) lower than the average extent for June 2007, but not the lowest on record, which occurred in June 2006 (see Figure 3).

Figure 2 indicates that on a daily basis, sea ice extent appears slightly higher than 2007 for most of the month. This apparent contradiction arises because of the monthly averaging calculation and because some days may have areas of missing data. To be included as an ice-covered region in the monthly average, the average concentration for that region must exceed 15 percent. So if the concentration is 15 percent for 29 days, but less than 15 percent for 1 day, it will not be included in the average ice extent for the month. Also, since ice extent decreases during June, if there is slightly more missing data in the early part of the month the monthly average could slightly underestimate the sea ice extent.

June sea ice extents in 2008 and 2007 are essentially identical, and near the lowest values for June ever recorded by satellite for the Arctic.

From the NSIDC.

I read this thread with interest and am starting to understand the difference between muti year and seasonal ice

For clarification for your 'readers'

When does the ice go from Hudson Bay , I assume it all goes each year, far more ice is there then I would have thought for late June is that normal ?

What's the ice in the far south of Asia on that map you have attached?

When you say ice free, I assume you mean certain passages would be open to shipping, this year and next?

From here its suggest a free artic 'ocean' from as early as 2030 ?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm

So we would still have ice this year but its shrinking

When does the ice season melt end, early September ?

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Posted
  • Location: Brixton, South London
  • Location: Brixton, South London

Stewfox:

1. The amount of ice in Hudson Bay is not abnormaly high for late June but is rather lower than the 1979-2000 average [see Cryosphere Today].

2. From what I can gather Hudson Bay is almost ice free , on average, between mid August and early October [see CT].

3. It is one thing to ask about average ice extent/melting but quite another to describe the Asian ice on that map as being in the "far south of Asia". If you had bothered to consult an atlas you would see that the areas referred to (the Sea of Okhotsk and Shelakhov Bay) are at approx. 54-63 degrees north. They are generally ice free from early July to late September. [again see CT].

4. 'Ice free' means that for a given area for a period each year there will either be no ice or a negligible amount of ice. It would follow that 'ordinary' shipping (i.e. not ice breakers) would be able to use routes in that area during the 'ice free period'.

5. When an area is free of ice for part of a year it does not necessarily mean that it will be free of ice in subsequent summers. However once old/multi-year ice melts it can only be replaced the next winter by thinner/weaker single year ice which is more susceptible to melting than old/multi-year ice in the following summer. If, for example, an area of single year ice experiences a particularly cold/cloudy summer it may not melt (or may melt to a lesser extent than would be expected). However as ice reflects incoming sunlight/heat whilst open water tends to absorb (the 'albedo effect') then that warmer water will tend to increase melting of nearby ice and delay refreezing and tend to lead to thinner winter ice. this is cited as an example of 'positive feedback'. There are other factors at play, of course, such as surface wind patterns and ocean currents.

6. On average NH minima are reached in the first two weeks of September.

7. As to when the Arctic Ocean will be essentially ice free during summer no-one knows: I have seen estimates ranging from 2013 to 2080, although recent estimates have tended to go for a date sooner than later.

regards

ACB

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Posted
  • Location: Corstorphine Hill, Edinburgh - 253ft ASL
  • Location: Corstorphine Hill, Edinburgh - 253ft ASL

I follow this thread closely as I find it facinating but rarely post in here as I feel I do not know enough about the subject. However I have noticed some people seem surprised by the sight of open water at the North Pole (as seen in the various pics). A simple search will reveal that this is a common occurance and has been for as long as people have been there to see it. Here is an interesting pic taken on 18 May 1987 of three subs at the North Pole with plenty of open water around.

post-2538-1215173974_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Can I ask where you got the picture from ?, it's really difficult knowing what to believe and not believe on the internet. I think this is a fake that has been doing the rounds for a number of years and seem to remember in the back of my mind.

Cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Corstorphine Hill, Edinburgh - 253ft ASL
  • Location: Corstorphine Hill, Edinburgh - 253ft ASL
Can I ask where you got the picture from ?, it's really difficult knowing what to believe and not believe on the internet. I think this is a fake that has been doing the rounds for a number of years and seem to remember in the back of my mind.

Cheers

Mmm, I frequent a lot of navy/air force/sea rescue sites and have had that photo for a while but I am not sure if its the magnetic or geopgraphic NP. I think I found it on one of the Navy sites. Might have been this one but I will see if I can determine if its legit.

Don't have a pic but ships have been sailing to the NP as well, here is a quote from the US Coast Guard site:

" The Polar Sea became the first U.S. surface vessel to reach the North Pole on 22 August 1994. She sailed with the CCCS Louis S. Ste. Laurent."

Site is here

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

One source I've scene describes it as being in the Arctic ice, during the operation they went to the north pole. But I can't find any evidence that the photo was taken at the north pole. I'd be amazed if there was any open water at the north pole in May.

U.S. and British sailors explore the Arctic ice cap while conducting the first U.S./British coordinated surfacing at the North Pole. The ships are, left to right: the nuclear-powered attack submarine Sea Devil (SSN-664), the fleet submarine HMS Superb (S-109) , and the nuclear-powered attack submarine Billfish (SSN-676), 18 May 1987.

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
One source I've scene describes it as being in the Arctic ice, during the operation they went to the north pole. But I can't find any evidence that the photo was taken at the north pole. I'd be amazed if there was any open water at the north pole in May.

U.S. and British sailors explore the Arctic ice cap while conducting the first U.S./British coordinated surfacing at the North Pole. The ships are, left to right: the nuclear-powered attack submarine Sea Devil (SSN-664), the fleet submarine HMS Superb (S-109) , and the nuclear-powered attack submarine Billfish (SSN-676), 18 May 1987.

Undertaking many Cold War patrols, Superb has had no less than 14 Commanding Officers amongst them Admiral Sir Michael Boyce the recently retired Chief of Defence Staff. On 18 May 1987 SUPERB surfaced at the North Pole in company with USS Billfish and USS Sea Devil sending the signal 'On top of the world! The reply from FOSM 'Steer South'

From

http://www.royal-navy.mod.uk/server?show=n...putFormat=print

It's not difficult for a sub to break through 2m of ice at the pole, the first time it was done was in 1959 by USS Skate SSN-578.

Once the ice is cracked, it is possible to create a pool of free water that wasn't there before the sub surfaced.

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
Don't have a pic but ships have been sailing to the NP as well, here is a quote from the US Coast Guard site:

" The Polar Sea became the first U.S. surface vessel to reach the North Pole on 22 August 1994. She sailed with the CCCS Louis S. Ste. Laurent."

Site is here

Yes, but be aware that the CCGS Louis S St-Laurent is an icebreaker: like the subs, they broke their way through, they didn't sail there through open water. And it was far from being the first surface vessel from any country to do so - the Soviet icebreaker Arktika did it in 1977.

Nowadays many go, in fact you can take a trip yourself just about now if you've £12,000 to spare (plus the air fare to Helsinki) - see http://www.gonomad.com/tours/0805/north-pole.html

This website interestingly emphasizes that the North Pole is "a geographical abstraction - a moving ice cap above a fixed point that can only be determined using navigational instruments." If that is correct, then the positioning of the instruments and webcams on the icecap 'at the Pole' is presumably only approximate over any length of time - something that hadn't really occurred to me before.

Edited by osmposm
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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
Yes, but be aware that the CCGS Louis S St-Laurent is an icebreaker: like the subs, they broke their way through, they didn't sail there through open water. And it was far from being the first surface vessel from any country to do so - the Soviet icebreaker Arktika did it in 1977.

Nowadays many go, in fact you can take a trip yourself just about now if you've £12,000 to spare - see http://www.gonomad.com/tours/0805/north-pole.html (& links)

This website interestingly emphasizes that the North Pole is "a geographical abstraction - a moving ice cap above a fixed point that can only be determined using navigational instruments." If that is correct, then the positioning of the instruments and webcams on the icecap 'at the Pole' is presumably only approximate over any length of time - something that hadn't really occurred to me before.

Yes, it is the odd degree south of here:

pos_2008.gif

Drifting south about a degree every 2-3 weeks.

Edited by Chris Knight
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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!

Just found this interesting account of ski-ing the last degree (89N to 90N) to the North Pole: http://www.baylormag.com/story.php?story=005124 .

He descibes how during their overnight stops the constantly drifting ice would take them anything from 200 yards in the right direction to two miles back (as measured on their GPS). At one point the movement was calculated as 350 yards an hour! Also mentioned are the 'leads' or giant cracks that open up in the pack, sometimes opening up into large areas of open water that re-freeze, sometimes closing again as the shelves crash back together throwing up pressure ridges (rather as mountain ranges are formed).

I am only just beginning to appreciate how mobile the whole of the Arctic icepack is: I had rather imagined that the most northerly part was somehow locked in place most of the time, with an easily identifiable place as the North Pole.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

The less ice 'girdleing' it in place the more mobile polar ice becomes. So, though the sun isn't very high over the pole for long if the ice 'trapping' it in place has melted then the ice from the pole could end up just about anywhere! (and then melt)

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The less ice 'girdleing' it in place the more mobile polar ice becomes. So, though the sun isn't very high over the pole for long if the ice 'trapping' it in place has melted then the ice from the pole could end up just about anywhere! (and then melt)

Hi I do not post here but often look in.

I have just come across satellite pictures of Iceland that show the remaining snowfields.

http://tinyurl.com/6a2kbh

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Still no let up in the H.P. at the pole. Was this how things started to pan out last year? I mean, was the H.P. 'forecast' to be so dominant last year or did it just build (like a continental H.P.)?

Last week we were promised, by someone wanting the ice to stay and not follow the forecasts for an ice free pole, that temps would be falling back to their seasonal norm (-1.5c) but no sign of it yet :D .

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland

GW you really are a muppet sometimes. I didnt promise anythign of the sort. that comment was based on a forecast a week before the date. concentrate on posting proper facts, rather than doom and gloom, assumptions and speculation.

N_timeseries.png

based on the situation currently this goes against expectations.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Grumpyknickers :lol:

I can't seem to post images today....but If you take a look at the pole you'll see the orange buoy in the middle distance has moved relative to the mounting station. Also the 'wave height' in the meltwater pool is a lot higher than of late. Seem like stuff is already happening up there.

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
The less ice 'girdleing' it in place the more mobile polar ice becomes. So, though the sun isn't very high over the pole for long if the ice 'trapping' it in place has melted then the ice from the pole could end up just about anywhere! (and then melt)

Of course that's right, GW; but the trip described took place not in summer, but in Mid-April 2004 - when presumably the ice cap was still relatively intact at the end of winter. What I would love to find is an account of a trip to the North Pole from significantly longer ago - more than 20 years - with similar observations of the shift in the pack relative to the pole.

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