June 2008 USA severe weather

[Roger J Smith]

June 3/08 0800z

Well, I thought it might be time to start up a sort of virtual storm chase thread in the usual place, but perhaps many will just want to stay lying down for a few more days, so I'll call it a(n) USA severe weather for June thread.

TODAY is looking very conducive to severe storms in Iowa, Illinois-Indiana-western Ohio, northern Missouri, eastern Nebraska. Yesterday, a mass of extremely hot and dry air moved out of NM into TX, KS and OK, and thunderstorms were only noted late in the day along the developing warm fronts in KS, but these were largely non-severe.

With highs yesterday of 41-43 C across a large part of NM, TX, w OK and sw KS, look for a repeat today, but an extension of the heat in modified form (34-37 C) into eastern KS, southern MO and IL. Frontal waves ahead of a dry heat low in n KS and s NE will be the focus for action today.

A very strong J-field energy peak at 1300-1500z guarantees the overnight action will not fall off much this morning before ramping up quickly to a mid-day severe outbreak that will then persist for many hours due to another energy peak at 19z and the extremely good dynamics of the frontal zone despite it being a warm front rather than a cold front.

Expect some tornadoes and a lot of hail, local 4-6 inch rainmakers, and the odd strange little ripple trying to move back westward because a lot of the energy is coming in from east to west against the upper level winds and this should produce what we call "back-door" cold front dynamics in Illinois and Indiana later on, assisted by the Lake Michigan regional lake breeze undercutting from near Chicago.

Meanwhile, it could easily be 102 F or 39 C in OKC and 100 F or 38 C in DFW today, and further west, you just don't even want to think about how hot it will be in Lubbock, Childress or San Angelo. But one or two rogue storms could develop because the thickness ridge that was over NM is now over TX where it can start to create a bit of a dry-line, although when 110 F air runs into 107 F air, not much is going to go up that isn't already way up to start with. The 594 dm thickness line was on the map at 00z and covered a large part of e NM and w TX. The local max thickness was 597 dm.

Ouch. Don't touch that car handle without a glove.

[dallas]

Roger when do you consider the season over please

[Rustynailer]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7433079.stm

I suppose you could say it was a Rapid cash withdrawal by a tornado

[NL]

Missouri,Illinois and Indiana and Ohio in the moderate risk area, with the first three

under a 15% tornado risk. Ben Holcomb of severestudios has commented that Illinois

has great chase territory and excellent road network, he's chasing through Indiana today

and will be live streaming so he'll be hoping Indiana has ideal chasing qualities.

Tornado risk.

[dallas]

Seems to be livey quite far east, noticed that there is more threats than normal out here.............or is it me,

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

311 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

VAC033-065-075-085-109-040745-

/O.CON.KAKQ.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-080604T0745Z/

GOOCHLAND VA-FLUVANNA VA-HANOVER VA-LOUISA VA-CAROLINE VA-

311 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM EDT

FOR SOUTHWESTERN CAROLINE...SOUTHERN LOUISA...NORTHWESTERN HANOVER...

NORTHEASTERN FLUVANNA AND NORTH CENTRAL GOOCHLAND COUNTIES...

AT 307 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM BUMPASS TO YANCEYVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING

FROM 11 MILES EAST OF MINERAL TO 6 MILES NORTH OF HADENSVILLE...

MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 39 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

CEDAR FORK...ORCHID...LOCUST CREEK AND BEAVERDAM BY 320 AM EDT...

NOEL...MABELTON...HEWLETT AND GUM SPRING BY 325 AM EDT...

OLIVER AND MONTPELIER BY 330 AM EDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING

FOR PORTOINS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA

[Nick F]

Moderate risk tomorrow over parts of KS, NE, IA, SD and MN. Given the 45% probabilistic - there's a good chance that we could see this upgraded to a HIGH risk. SPC mention the chance of long-track tornadoes too ...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1237 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MN/SERN

SD/NRN AND WRN IA/ERN NEB/CNTRL AND ERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT

LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS DURING

THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING

DYNAMIC...UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL SHIFT EWD

INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK

INITIALLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH

PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASING

NEGATIVE-TILT TO UPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB

WILL DEVELOP NNEWD INTO N-CNTRL/NERN NEB BY EARLY EVENING AND INTO

THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE N BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WARM

FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY EXTENDING

FROM THE SURFACE LOW ENEWD THROUGH SERN SD/SRN MN/CNTRL WI/CNTRL OR

NRN MI BY 06/00Z. A DRYLINE WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW SWD THROUGH

CNTRL NEB/KS INTO WRN OK/NWRN TX AT THIS TIME.

--SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER

PORTIONS OF KS/NEB/SD/MN/IA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR

STRONG...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES--

...GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO SRN PLAINS...

A VERY BROAD AND STRONG...SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY

LAYER ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE

60S...THOUGH SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE

SHALLOWER CBL MIXING IS ANTICIPATED. A PRONOUNCED EML WILL RESIDE

ABOVE THIS MOISTURE WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT

STRONGLY CAPPED FROM WARM FRONT SWD ALONG DRYLINE. THE STRONGEST

INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED ALONG WARM

FRONT SWD ALONG CNTRL PLAINS PORTION OF DRYLINE WHERE STEEPER

MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY TEND TO

DECREASE SLIGHTLY FROM SRN KS SWD OWING VERY WARM MIDLEVEL

TEMPERATURE PROFILES.

A BAND OF TSTMS /MAINLY ELEVATED/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY

MORNING TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF NEB/SD EWD

INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...DRIVEN LARGELY BY WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT

ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AXIS. ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE

THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THIS SAME FORCING REGIME...WITH ACTIVITY

MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND

UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF

MAINLY LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY

STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.

MORE SIGNIFICANT...SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY

MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT SWD ALONG DRYLINE AS

LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO UPPER SYSTEM

BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD SYSTEM WARM SECTOR...EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE

CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND THROUGH A DEEP-LAYER/ WILL

BE QUITE STRONG FROM MDT RISK PORTION OF WARM FRONT SWD ALONG

DRYLINE WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF

TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW OF THE

TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED OWING TO THE

STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND 40-50+ STORM MOTIONS.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG

DRYLINE FROM KS INTO OK AND POSSIBLY N TX GIVEN THE VERY STRONG CAP

FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE

POSSIBLE ALONG ERN EXTENSION OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS

WI/LOWER MI WHERE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS

CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

DIURNAL STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A

QUASI-LINEAR MCS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING

WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUING AHEAD OF COLD

FRONT SURGING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.

Forecast Skew-t for Topeka, Kansas for 00z Fri (18z Thurs CDT) certainly has severe hall marks looking at the 4000+ j/kg CAPE, strong upper winds, backed winds towards surface, and favourable hodographs for tornadic supercells:

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_ske...STATIONID=_KTOP

[Cookie]

http://www.weathermatrix.net/stormmatrix/tornado/

There have been 16 Tornado Reports Today* | Yesterday | Storms | Hail | Wind

Time (Z) 	Strength 	Location 	County 	State 	Lat 	Lon 	Comments
0230 	UNK 	2 E MICHAEL 	GREENE 	IL 	39.24 	-90.58 	BELOW
SPOTTED BY DEPUTY (LSX)
0222 	UNK 	10 SW RUSHVILLE 	RUSH 	IN 	39.51 	-85.58 	BELOW
SEVERAL HOMES HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED AROUND THE TOWN OF MOSCOW. POLICE REPORT UNKNOWN NUMBER OF INJURIES AND NUMEROUS PEOPLE MISSING. (IND)
0153 	UNK 	ALBANY 	ATHENS 	OH 	39.22 	-82.2 	BELOW
PUBLIC REPORT OF A POSSIBLE TORNADO ALONG BAKER ROAD NEAR ALBANY. REPORT IS UNCOMFIRMED AT THIS TIME. (RLX)
0148 	UNK 	WHITESIDE 	LINCOLN 	MO 	39.18 	-91.02 	BELOW
TORNADO SPOTTED BY SHERIFF IN WHITESIDE (LSX)
0147 	UNK 	EDINBURGH 	JOHNSON 	IN 	39.35 	-85.97 	BELOW
TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND IN EDINBURGH WITH DEBRIS IN THE AIR AND TRANSFORMERS BLOWING. (IND)
0147 	UNK 	ALBANY 	ATHENS 	OH 	39.22 	-82.2 	BELOW
PUBLIC REPORT OF A POSSIBLE TORNADO ALONG BAKER ROAD NEAR ALBANY. REPORT IS UNCOMFIRMED AT THIS TIME. (RLX)
0129 	UNK 	PRINCES LAKES 	JOHNSON 	IN 	39.35 	-86.11 	BELOW
TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR MAUXBERRY ROAD AND CR 300S (IND)
0115 	UNK 	ELDRED 	GREENE 	IL 	39.29 	-90.55 	BELOW
PUBLIC REPORTS TORNADO ON GROUND. (LSX)
0109 	UNK 	ST. PAUL 	DECATUR 	IN 	39.43 	-85.63 	BELOW
SPOTTER REPORTS SEEING TORNADO LIFTING UP AND DOWN BETWEEN THE TOWNS OF WALDRON AND ST. PAUL. DAMAGE HAS BEEN SEEN TO TELEPHONE POLES AND WIRES DOWN. (IND)
0101 	UNK 	FARMERSVILLE 	MONTGOMERY 	IL 	39.44 	-89.65 	BELOW
POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR FARMERSVILLE (LSX)
0059 	UNK 	PLEASANT HILL 	PIKE 	IL 	39.44 	-90.87 	BELOW
THROUGH SHERIFF OFFICE...TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR PLEASANT HILL (LSX)
0054 	UNK 	COTTAGE GROVE 	UNION 	IN 	39.6 	-84.86 	BELOW
REPORT OF A TOUCHDOWN NEAR ROUTE 27. STORM WAS MOVING TOWARDS COLLEGE CORNER AND OXFORD. (ILN)
0046 	UNK 	2 N MANCHESTER 	SCOTT 	IL 	39.57 	-90.33 	BELOW
TORNADO OCCASIONALLY TOUCHING DOWN (ILX)
0030 	UNK 	4 W WINCHESTER 	SCOTT 	IL 	39.63 	-90.53 	BELOW
SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND (ILX)
0030 	UNK 	4 S WINCHESTER 	SCOTT 	IL 	39.57 	-90.46 	BELOW
SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND (ILX)
1305 	UNK 	2 E VERNON 	MARION 	IL 	38.8 	-89.05 	BELOW
PUBLIC REPORTED SEEING TORNADO THAT TOOK ROOF OFF BARN AND SHINGLES OFF HOUSE (LSX)

[Paul Sherman]

Today has been Upgraded to a Moderate Risk and Tomorrow looks damn right Scary for a Big Tornado Outbreak, could be some quite Noteable Tornadoes tomorrow and I expect like Nick an Upgrade to HIGH On tomorrow mornings outlook!

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0759 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR

MO VLY...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC

STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS TO THE

MID ATLANTIC CST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS WILL CONTINUE THIS

PERIOD AS WA/ORE UPR LOW AMPLIFIES SE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND

DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NRN GULF ACROSS THE SERN STATES.

EXISTING BELT OF FAST WSW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS TO THE OH VLY

WILL REMAIN STRONG BUT BACK WITH TIME...WHILE EQUALLY STRONG WLY

WINDS PERSIST OVER THE EAST.

AT THE SFC...FRONT NOW EXTENDING WWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC CST TO

THE CNTRL PLNS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MOST OF TODAY. LATER

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT WRN PART OF THE FRONT TO BEGIN MOVING N

ACROSS KS/MO AND IL AS LOW- TO MID-LVL FLOW BACKS...AND LEE LOW

DEEPENS IN ERN CO/WRN KS.

...NRN OK/KS INTO MO/NEB/IA...

VERY MOIST AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S WILL PERSIST ALONG

AND S OF THE STNRY/WARM FRONT OVER THE PLNS/LWR MO VLY...AND E OF

THE DRY LINE EXTENDING SSW FROM WRN KS SFC LOW. COMBINED WITH STEEP

MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BOOST SBCAPE TO

2500-3000 J/KG FROM NRN OK NE INTO MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN KS ...SE

NEB...NW MO AND SW IA. NEVERTHELESS...EML CAP SHOULD KEEP REGION

FREE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTN.

SCTD AREAS OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY IN NEB...N OF

STALLED FRONT. BUT COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND FRONTAL UPLIFT

SHOULD SUPPORT SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG

FRONT IN NRN KS/NRN MO/SRN IA AND SRN NEB. FARTHER SW...MORE ISOLD

ACTIVITY MAY FORM IN NW OK/S CNTRL KS...NEAR INTERSECTION OF DRY

LINE WITH SHALLOW FRONTAL SEGMENT LEFT OVER REGION FROM YESTERDAY.

GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY

STRONG SWLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP STRONG SSWLY LLJ...SUPERCELLS WILL BE

LIKELY. THESE COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND

TORNADOES. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING

INVOF THE KS SFC LOW...ENEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO CNTRL/NRN KS

AND TO TRI-STATE REGION OF NW MO/SW IA/SE NEB AS LLJ STRENGTHENS

TOWARD SUNSET.

STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE MID

MO VLY TONIGHT ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING/BACKING 60-65 KT SSWLY

LLJ. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT

WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY

DMGG WIND/ISOLD TORNADOES.

...CNTRL HI PLNS...

DIURNAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME NW OF WRN KS/ERN

CO SFC LOW IN NE CO/SW NEB AND PERHAPS NW KS/SE WY. MODERATELY

STRONG INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR AND LACK OF LINEAR FORCING WILL

FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND AND

POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THAT

CONTINUES E OR ENE INTO NW KS AND CNTRL NEB OVERNIGHT.

...MID MS VLY/MIDWEST...

LIKELY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FROM ERN MO INTO IA/IL/IND IS SOMEWHAT

NEBULOUS ATTM. CLOUD AND SHALLOW OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCSS WILL

DELAY DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND NWD MOTION OF SYNOPTIC FRONT.

NEVERTHELESS...CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION WILL PROCEED FROM W TO E

ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE AND

RADAR DATA ALSO SHOW AN MCV MOVING E ACROSS NE MO ATTM THAT COULD

ENHANCE UVV DOWNSTREAM OVER IL/IND DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED

WITH BUILDING UPR RIDGE. THUS...EXPECT REGION WILL SEE SEVERAL

AREAS OF CONCENTRATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN...BOTH INVOF MCV

AND ALONG RESIDUAL FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEGMENTS.

50 KT WLY MID-LVL FLOW WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR FOR

ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF WARM/STNRY

FRONT. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARIES COULD AID THE

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TORNADOES GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

TONIGHT...MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP NWD INTO ERN

IA/SRN WI TO SRN LOWER MI ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT. STRENGTHENING WAA

ALONG SWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE

REGION...AND/OR MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO MOVE EWD FROM

IA INTO THE SRN GRT LAKES. GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST

DEEP SHEAR...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE

STORMS.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC

REGION...S OF STNRY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM CNTRL PA TO NEAR NYC.

FARTHER S...A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS ATTM

EXTENDS FROM N OF CRW ESE TO N OF RIC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT

MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER WV/VA/MD AND DE.

GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE

RATES...THIS SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG...WITH SLIGHTLY

GREATER VALUES POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

UPSTREAM...MCV NOW OVER SRN IND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E AT ABOUT 40

KTS...REACHING NRN WV AROUND 18Z. COMBINATION OF MCV-INDUCED

ASCENT...AND UPLIFT ALONG FRONT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE HIGHER

TERRAIN...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE AS

HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION LATER TODAY.

WIND PROFILES WILL FEATURE 40+ KT DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY

FLOW...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WHILE

SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY

ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...THE MAIN OVERALL

ORGANIZATIONAL MODE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FORWARD-PROPAGATING

LINES. EMBEDDED STORMS COULD YIELD DMGG WIND...SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS

A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE MOST OF THE

ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE/WEAKENS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE CONVECTION...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF WEAKER

STORMS MAY PERSIST OVER NRN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH

EARLY THURSDAY.

[Roger J Smith]

Hello all, well I agree in spades with the above,

TODAY looks rather sedate compared to the days to come, but some fairly strong storms will probably develop in northeast Colorado, northwest KS and possibly further east along the KS-NE border. Also some clusters possible in s MO and later heading north towards s MI, nw OH.

Tomorrow and Friday looking very severe as outlined in the previous posts.

Dallas, I consider the season over in stages but it never totally shuts down .... if you wanted to chase in October you could probably find something at least once a week.

The main thing that happens is a northward shift of the main activity zone. Tornado alley in mid-July is probably from Alberta to central Ontario, but including a large chunk of e MT, ND, MN, WI and MI. This is where it stays in August, then it starts sagging back towards the spring tornado alley in September. The frequency is always slowly decreasing through these months, but not fast enough to spare people in the way from a significant risk. For example, an F4 tornado showed up on 7 Aug 1979 near Woodstock ON which is about 100 km WSW of Toronto.

The severe weather risk by late November and through the winter months is confined to a few well-developed low pressure areas that bring tornadic storms to the Gulf coast region mainly, although these can reach north about as far as Little Rock to Memphis. So Florida gets about as many severe storms as any state in mid-winter, but the season is just about at its low tide in late January. From then on, it rapidly develops through February.

But as to the frequency in June, this is still a very active month and probably NE, SD and IA would be about the heart of the risk zone in general. The action doesn't usually start in western Canada until after mid-June, it takes quite some time to heat up the ground and get the jet stream far enough north, but once the mean daily max reaches 27 or 28 C in southern SK then this becomes the more likely staging area. The humid Gulf air mass quite often makes it as far north as eastern SK and southern MB, and you get the same dry-line and cold front dynamics in the western provinces as you see in the great plains region now.

[dallas]

Chers Roger, I remember some sort of Tornado related incident in Hamilton Canada not so long ago. I think that was later on in the season too. Interesting to note you can get the same sort of verocity further North

[Roger J Smith]

The worst storm of the day was apparently at Yuma CO where ponds are overflowing and there is also wind and hail damage. But there is a nasty looking cell west of McCook NE at present.

The guidance for tomorrow (Thursday that is) late coming out, so I may edit this or post again.

[Roger J Smith]

June 5/08 _ 0630z

Well, this appears to be the perfect storm situation developing across the central United States today.

There could be dozens of tornadoes today from ND and s MN in the north, across eastern SD, western IA, eastern NE, western MO, eastern and central KS, central and western OK, and parts of TX ... the front is elongated and well supported from north to south by all the elements that meteorologists look for, strong winds, sharp wind shear, juicy hot and humid air streaming north, cold and dry air wrapping into the frontal zone under crashing upper heights and thicknesses, and not only that, it's northern max, the most conducive lunar-geomagnetic event of the cycle.

Add to that a major J-field energy peak and you've got potential carnage across the mid-section of the country.

I am sure CNN and other news organizations will be all over the warning side of this developing situation, so the main thing will be to ensure that timely warnings are broadcast locally, however, that is always much easier done when people are aware from early in the day that they might well be hearing them later on.

If I had to choose one place to wait for the action, it would probably be around Concordia KS to York NE, but you can hardly go wrong today from San Angelo to Redwood Falls MN, anyone might see a tornado later today.

Now Paul, you promised to stay home ...

[Paul Sherman]

The Outbreak of the Year

I have a feeling this one could make News for all the wrong reasons later today!

Paul S

[dallas]

Blimey just seen that, huge risk area today!

[NL]

Yes... a huge tornado outbreak potential today with initiation due

within the hour latest visible sat image @1715z.

[Nick F]

Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 461 issued for parts of KS, NE, SD, and IA:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 461

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1055 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN IOWA

NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA

EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1055 AM UNTIL

700 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DENISON IOWA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

[NL]

New Tornado watch 462

TornadoWatch - 0100Z

WWUS20 KWNS 051647

SEL2

SPC WW 051647

KSZ000-OKZ000-060100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 462

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1150 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS

NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL

800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF CONCORDIA

KANSAS TO 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE

DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE

(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460...WW 461...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD

FRONT/DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL KS AND NORTHWEST OK DURING THE NEXT FEW

HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL INTERACT WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND VERY

FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR

SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN MORE DISCRETE

STRUCTURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES

WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE

HAIL ARE EXPECTED.

from 11:50 AM CDT until 8:00 PM CDT. This Watch Box is also A Particluary Dangerous Situation...

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 90%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 60%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 70%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 90%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

[NL]

Mesoscale discussion concerning Tornado watch #461 & 462.

MCD - 05/1915Z

ACUS11 KWNS 051745

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 051744

NEZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-051915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1244 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB...CNTRL KS INTO NW OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 461...462...

VALID 051744Z - 051915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 461...462...CONTINUES.

CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH

THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AND...COOLING/LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE JET AXIS

IS WEAKENING INHIBITION ALONG INITIAL SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING

THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS

UNDERWAY...AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION/INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS

ANTICIPATED BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z.

IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE OF

2000-3000 J/KG...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE

LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL

NEBRASKA. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL

FOR STRONG TO EXTREMELY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS AN 80-90 KT

SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET CORE REDEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN

ROCKIES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS.

STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND CLOCKWISE CURVED

LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN

NEBRASKA. THIS IS WHERE STORMS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE THE LONGEST

BEFORE POSSIBLY CONGEALING INTO A LARGER STORM CLUSTER. SYNOPTIC

WARM FRONT NEAR/NORTH OF BROKEN BOW INTO THE SIOUX CITY IA AREA MAY

PROVIDE A FOCUS. BUT...SURFACE FLOW REMAINS BACKED AROUND TO

SOUTHEASTERLY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA...

NORTH OF OLD WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS

COUPLED WITH AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE

...BENEATH BROADER SCALE DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A

FEW LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES.

[NL]

Tornado warnings now in Kansas/Nebraska, also new MCD for Texas

concerning Tornado watch.

MCD - 05/1945Z

ACUS11 KWNS 051838

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 051838

OKZ000-TXZ000-051945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1230

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0138 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051838Z - 051945Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS PROBABLE BY 20-21Z AS HEATING/MIXING

BREAK CAPPING INVERSION ALONG DRYLINE. STRONG SWLYS ON SRN PERIPHERY

OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING FROM SRN ROCKIES TO THE CNTRL

PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WITH ATTENDANT

THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. A TORNADO

WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 20Z.

RECENT VIS IMAGERY DEPICT CU/TCU INCREASING ALONG DRYLINE...SITUATED

FROM NEAR GAG SWWD TO MAF AS OF 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT

MID-LEVEL FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT HIGH PLAINS

SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE REGION...CONTINUED DAYTIME

HEATING/MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED

TSTMS FORMING DURING THE MID/LATE-AFTERNOON. SHEAR/INSTABILITY

PARAMETERS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE

HAIL/WINDS LIKELY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MIXING...RELATIVELY HIGH

BASES MAY MITIGATE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT.

NEVERTHELESS...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL TORNADIC

DEVELOPMENT.

TornadoWarning - 05/1945Z

WFUS53 KGLD 051840

TORGLD

KSC071-199-051945-

O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0063.080605T1841Z-080605T1945Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

1241 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN GREELEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

SOUTHEASTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM MDT

* AT 1238 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HORACE...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

RURAL NORTHERN GREELEY COUNTY AROUND 100 PM MDT

RURAL SOUTHERN WALLACE COUNTY AROUND 110 PM MDT

RURAL NORTHEASTERN GREELEY COUNTY AROUND 110 PM MDT

RURAL SOUTHEASTERN WALLACE COUNTY AROUND 120 PM MDT

RURAL EASTERN WALLACE COUNTY AROUND 130 PM MDT

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 109 AND 140.

[NL]

First confirmed Tornado touchdowns in Gove County Kansas, reported from spotters.

Six Tornado warnings in effect in Kansas.

Live streaming http://data.ksn.com/video/radarstream.html

[NL]

Most of the storms in Kansas are showing intense rotation

but very few touchdowns, the main concern is straight line

winds at around 60-75mph accompanied with tennis to baseball

sized hail..!!! Ouch.!!

Edited June 5, 2008 by NL

[Roger J Smith]

Words almost fail me as I look at this situation developing ... air masses are literally rushing towards a developing front through central NE and KS ... winds are generally gusting to 50-55 mph from the south ahead of this front in most of OK, e KS and se NE ... and from the SW to W at 55-60 mph in the hot, dry desert air rushing into w KS, w OK and the TX panhandle. ... Any storms that can work on this energy and rotate it further will go rapidly to F4-5 tornadic levels. And the activity is really just in its formative stages now, much colder air will rush into the vacuum from eastern CO and undercut all of the air masses in place ... start brewing the coffee, friends, this sucker peaks at about 04z or 0500 BST, and I think some of the worst storms will be after dark in western IA, eastern NE, eastern KS and central OK.

As I mentioned earlier, CNN has frequent coverage and I would imagine that local TV stations are very tuned in to this high risk, so anyone who gets surprised by one of these monsters later on has nobody to blame but themselves ... if I lived in a trailer in this zone today, I would be staying with relatives or checking into a large hotel (and take a room on the northeast side at ground level).

Tomorrow, by the way, more of the same further east, not quite as potent looking but still a moderate to high risk situation for states to the east of today's risk zone.

[Paul Sherman]

I know this might sound Mad, but I am genuinly happy I am not out there chasing this Risk today, Storm Motions are akin to Concorde across the board, have seen one Storm moving NE @ 83mph, that is just crazy, lots of the boys in the field are just sitting east of the Storms and just watching for features, most of them are HP As well, not nice, signs things are more Linear than first thought as well, nasty Bow echoes are not nice and can be the strength of a low end EF2. Obviously given the choice and if someone handed me a Ticket to chase then I would but this would not be high on my desireable chases for the 2008 Season!

Paul S

[Roger J Smith]

Noted at 22z that wind gusts at Liberal KS were reaching 66 mph, and this is over a hundred miles behind the developing squall line which is west of Wichita KS to Enid OK. The cell west of Enid at present looks very juicy and will probably become tornadic soon, but would just not want to be anywhere ahead of this squall line in eastern NE or KS into OK from now to 06z, the whole thing could become damaging over a large percentage of its length. The upper level winds are screaming at 100 knots (500 mb) to 130 knots (250 mbs) so as these cells grow in vertical extent, they will be pushed along faster and will have to rotate to stay in line.

Quite often in this sort of a situation, the worst tornadoes will show up very late near the warm front so residents of southern MN and northern IA may need to stay on alert all night.

[Paul Sherman]

LOL @ The Storm Speed

AT 500 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL

UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH. THIS

STORM WAS LOCATED 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINDOM...OR 14 MILES

NORTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 71 MPH.