June 2008 USA severe weather

[Paul Sherman]

Nasty looking Bow Echo North of Enid, would expect some sort of damage report with this shortly!

Paul S

[Roger J Smith]

Also a tornado now developing near Manhattan KS, a fairly large town if I remember correctly over 20,000 people.

Large tornado, sprawling target, not a good thing there.

[Paul Sherman]

Roger, Yes we drove through Manhattan end of last week and it is a fairly large place, around 15 to 20k people over quite a large spread out area. 10 Times the size of Greensburg for Comparison

Warning for the Bow Echo in Oklahoma.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

540 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

NORTHWESTERN KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

EASTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 540 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAKITA TO 4 MILES

EAST OF CLEO SPRINGS TO CENTRAL CANTON LAKE TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

FOSS RESERVOIR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 69 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF

HALF DOLLARS AND WINDS OF 75 MPH ARE LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CLINTON...ENID AND WEATHERFORD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.

MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF

A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

[NL]

Bob Hall is streaming live just a few miles west of Enid. http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/strea...hall&uid=68

Not much happening at the moment.

Tornado warning in effect for Wichita the largest city in Kansas, only doppler indicated

at the moment no confirmed touchdowns yet.

[Roger J Smith]

The radar loop showed a tornado ripping across Manhattan KS from 2305 to 2310z so fingers crossed it wasn't too severe, but it looked at least Stuttgart-like on the loop.

[Roger J Smith]

Seems thankfully that some of yesterday's tornadic storms either missed towns (unlike the 2008 trend) or only dropped a funnel that rotated harmlessly overhead.

Today's action has shifted east to Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and southern Missouri, mainly. So far one or two isolated small tornadoes.

[Roger J Smith]

A few tornadic storms along the stalled front through Wisconsin and northeast Iowa this afternoon.

Nothing too major yet in terms of damage reports.

Very high dew points now showing up into parts of the western Great Lakes region (25-26 C in some places).

The hot, dry weather continues over Texas and Oklahoma.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Tornado warning in Michigan- The Arenac, Ogemaw and Iosco counties

Looking interesting on the radar:

"... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for Arenac...

Ogemaw and Iosco counties...

At 339 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to

indicate a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This

storm was located near Omer... or 7 miles west of Au Gres... moving

northeast at 50 mph.

Radar indicates that the rotation in this storm has strengthened in

the past few minutes. It will pass on the northwest side of Au Gres

by 355 PM.

* This storm will be near...

10 miles southeast of National City around 355 PM EDT...

8 miles south of Tawas Point State Park... 9 miles south of Tawas

City and 10 miles south of East Tawas around 400 PM EDT...

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement under a

workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is

available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an

interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to

cover your body and always stay away from windows.

Lat... Lon 4433 8333 4424 8346 4427 8347 4427 8350

4423 8355 4406 8357 4404 8366 4399 8369

4400 8383 4391 8392 4391 8404 4399 8405

4399 8415 4403 8417 4416 8417 4417 8425

4423 8428 4449 8388 4450 8331

time... Mot... loc 1942z 242deg 45kt 4404 8378"

A fair amount of Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Warnings across the Midwest and Northeast USA at the moment.

Jamie

Edited June 8, 2008 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in force for Ohio-

Hancock County in Northwest Ohio, southwestern Lucas County in Northwest Ohio and Wood County in Northwest Ohio...

Looking very heavy in some places:

"The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

Hancock County in Northwest Ohio...

southwestern Lucas County in Northwest Ohio...

Wood County in Northwest Ohio...

* until 730 PM EDT

* at 629 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a

line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing nickel size

hail... and destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. These storms

were located along a line extending from 25 miles west of Custar to

12 miles southwest of Arlington... moving northeast at 48 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to

Rawson... McComb... Findlay... Vanlue... North Baltimore... Van Buren...

Weston... Arcadia and Bowling Green

Please report hail or strong winds to the National Weather Service by

calling toll free... 877-633-6772... when you can do so safely.

Lat... Lon 4148 8388 4149 8342 4102 8343 4099 8344

4082 8357 4081 8359 4080 8387 4081 8388

4091 8388

time... Mot... loc 2234z 229deg 42kt 4131 8427 4077 8370"

There was also a tornado warning in force but i see that has been taken away now

Severe Thunderstorm watches are also out across areas of the Midwest

Jamie

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Tornado Warning now in force for areas in Ohio:

"... The Tornado Warning for western Seneca and northeastern Hancock

counties expires at 745 PM EDT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT

Monday evening for Northern Ohio.

Lat... Lon 4112 8367 4117 8349 4117 8342 4119 8341

4125 8319 4105 8307 4098 8341 4099 8345

4097 8346 4094 8361

time... Mot... loc 2344z 254deg 45kt 4120 8286

Thompson

716 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2008

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...

extreme south central Ottawa County in Northwest Ohio...

Sandusky County in Northwest Ohio...

northwestern Seneca County in Northwest Ohio...

* until 815 PM EDT

* at 711 PM EDT... trained weather spotters reported a funnel cloud

in southern Wood County... moving northeast at 55 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to

Fremont

In addition to the tornado... this storm is capable of producing

damaging hail and destructive straight line winds.

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a

workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is

available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an

interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to

cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a

substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the

nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

Please report tornadoes... funnel clouds... strong winds or hail to the

National Weather Service by calling toll free... 877-633-6772... when

you can do so safely.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT Monday

evening for Northern Ohio.

Lat... Lon 4146 8322 4141 8291 4125 8323 4119 8340

4141 8342

time... Mot... loc 2316z 222deg 49kt 4132 8330

Kosarik"

Jamie

[Roger J Smith]

A couple of very active tornado days likely tomorrow and Thursday in Kansas-Nebraska tomorrow spreading to Iowa-Missouri and further east on Thursday. Almost the same set-up as last week.

Currently snowing at Kalispell MT under the upper low feature, so very cool air spreading rapidly into Colorado tonight and tomorrow, should set off a squall line across nw OK-KS-NE tomorrow. Stay tuned.

[Nick F]

Indeed, a moderate risk for tomorrow over Ern NE and Wern IA ... this area seems to have been under the gun quite alot these last 2-3 weeks. With a 45% probabilistic - there's chance of the area going high risk. Omaha could be in the firing line tomorrow evening looking at the NAM SRH and Td charts.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB AND WRN

IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO

CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS MT WITH

ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM/70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING

NEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER

HALF OF THE PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY

OVER N-CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL SD WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO SRN MN WITH

ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. BY

LATE AFTERNOON...TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM

SURFACE LOW SWD INTO ERN NEB AND SWWD INTO NWRN KS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL PLAINS...

SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SYSTEM

WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO PERHAPS LOWER 70S. THIS

MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL

LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE

DAY WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MO VALLEY

WHERE MLCAPES WILL APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG.

ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF

ENHANCED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS OVER PORTIONS OF SD/MN

PERHAPS INTO ERN NEB/IA. THESE PROCESSES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THIS

ELEVATED TSTM REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM

FRONT WITH LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST

INTENSE STORMS.

MORE SIGNIFICANT...SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY

MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT OR DIFFERENTIAL

HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SWD/SWWD ALONG FRONT OVER ERN NEB INTO

N-CNTRL KS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND

40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND

TORNADOES. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE

EVENING /IN CONCERT WITH THE LLJ/ AND THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A

COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS MDT RISK AREA.

STORMS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OR AN MCS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND

HAIL.

[NL]

The moderate risk has been extended to cover north/east central Kansas with a

15% chance of a tornado confined to south eastern Nebraska into western Iowa,

far SW tip of Minnesota and the extreme north of Kansas.

Tornado risk.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Nick F]

Tornado watch issued for Ern NE, Wern IA and Sern MN ... hourly mesoscale charts showing some rather strong SR helicity over this area too, could be some strong tornadoes ...

- SPC hoorly mesoscale 0-3km/1km SRH charts

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 509

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

255 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN IOWA

SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA

NORTHWEST MISSOURI

EASTERN NEBRASKA

EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF

MANKATO MINNESOTA TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF FALLS CITY

NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP

THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS

EASTERN NEB. THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE/SUPERCELLULAR WITH A

RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD

OF FRONT WILL ALSO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF TORNADOES. ACTIVITY

IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING WITH

SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS IA AND INTO NORTHWEST MO.

[Roger J Smith]

A strong wave showing on the front just northwest of Dodge City KS, should become one focus for tornadic storm development soon with cells likely to fire off rapidly NNE towards the Nebraska border. This set-up has good upper dynamics but lacks one particular energy peak so seems likely to evolve into clusters of severe storms from MN to KS. Tomorrow, just what is least needed, another heavy rainfall event in Wisconin where numerous dams are strained to capacity. In some cases, the dams are holding but the water is rushing around them.

[Nick F]

Tornado watch has been extended SW into Kansas, though chance for tornadoes looks more isolated here than further NE over Ern NE/Wern IA. Some isolated storms begining to fire in a line ahead of the cold front over SE NE and north central KS now.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 510

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

340 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS

EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH OF MANHATTAN

KANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE

DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE

(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 509...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG

AND AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH RISK OF

VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO

ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE BY EARLY EVENING WITH AN CONTINUED RISK

OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

[Nick F]

Oh dear, looks like there were lots of tornadoes in the end, 4 dead and 40 injured as tornado hits Boy Scout Camp at Little Sioux in western Iowa :

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=5051377

50 tornado reports over KS, NE, IA and MN:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

[Roger J Smith]

Today's action (Thursday 12th) mainly in southern WI to eastern IA, more flooding problems mainly so far.

Edited June 12, 2008 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Well, the severe weather season is probably past its spring peak now, but today looks rather active in n/c OK and near the OK-KS border, guidance is suggesting a heavy rainfall event tonight. The current dp at Ardmore at 26 C indicates the potential which could be locally 6-8 inches in a 12 hour period. Other types of severe weather a little less guaranteed but watching for developments.

[Roger J Smith]

On Monday, the most severe storms developed in western OK and moved south across Hobart and Altus where there was considerable wind and hail damage reported.

Although I wasn't watching very closely on the weekend, and missed this event totally, here's an interesting damage report from a hail storm that hit the Childress TX region (on Sunday) --

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

333 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...UPDATED PRELIMINARY INFORMATION REGARDING STORM DAMAGE IN

CHILDRESS FROM SUNDAY/S WEATHER...

A TEAM OF METEOROLOGISTS ARE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DAMAGE

BROUGHT ABOUT BY AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WHICH STRUCK

CHILDRESS SHORTLY AFTER 830 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING. INITIAL

FINDINGS FROM THE SURVEY TEAM INDICATE WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT-LINE

WIND DAMAGE TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE CITY. WHILE MOST OF THE

DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE FROM WIND-DRIVEN HAIL, SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE DID OCCUR. THE AREA WHICH SUSTAINED SOME OF THE

WORST DAMAGE WAS ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 287

IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF TOWN. MANY POWER POLES WERE BLOWN DOWN

TO THE WEST ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 83 AND SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED ROOF

DAMAGE AS EAST-FACING GARAGE DOORS FAILED. FURTHER SOUTH, ALMOST

ALL EAST- FACING WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT OF RESIDENCES AND SIDING

AND OTHER EXTERIOR SURFACES SUFFERED SEVERE DAMAGE BY WIND-BLOWN

HAIL. OTHER STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WITHIN THE CITY PRIMARILY INCLUDED

BARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS AND A FEW BUSINESSES. AT THIS TIME THERE IS

NO CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE FROM THE DAMAGE PATTERN OF A TORNADO BUT IT

WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO DISCERN A SMALLER SCALE TORNADIC

CIRCULATION WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE

OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CITY OF CHILDRESS. THERE WERE SEVERAL

MINOR INJURIES REPORTED AS WELL, MAINLY AS A RESULT OF WIND-BLOW

DEBRIS.

THE NWS TEAM WILL REMAIN IN CHILDRESS THROUGH LATE MONDAY

AFTERNOON IN ORDER TO COMPILE A COMPLETE RECORD OF DAMAGE AND

ASSESS AN ESTIMATED WIND SPEED ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND EVENT.

ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS COULD BE HIGHER, AUTOMATED WEATHER EQUIPMENT

AT THE CHILDRESS AIRPORT RECORDED A WIND GUST TO 69 MPH WHILE THE

WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE 2 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CHILDRESS

RECORDED A WIND GUST TO 80 MPH BEFORE DATA COLLECTION WAS

INTERRUPTED AT BOTH SITES.

THE ANTENNAE ON THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER STATION KJY97 IN

CHILDRESS WAS ALSO DAMAGED AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND

TELEPHONE COMMUNICATION WHICH CARRIES AUDIO TO THE SITE HAS BEEN

INTERRUPTED.

----------------------------------

It would be sweet to be in the glazing business in that part of the world.

[Paul Sherman]

As Expected a few days ago on some of the US Storm Forums, an Upgrade to MODERATE Risk today, although this mainly looks like a High Wind and Large Hail Threat, would not rule out the odd stronger Tornado though.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0733 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN ND...SD..NERN

NEB..SWRN MN..CENTRAL/NWRN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE CORRIDOR FROM

THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO

SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR CONVECTION...REINFORCED BY

ONGOING COMPLEXES OVER THE LOWER/MID MO RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT MCS

OVER MO WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING THIS MORNING...WHILE ONE OR MORE

COMPLEXES EVOLVE ACROSS SRN/ERN SD-NEB TRACKING GENERALLY ESEWD INTO

IA/NRN MO/SRN MN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE

TROUGH. SURFACE LAYER AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN

FAIRLY STABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN WAKE OF EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW

BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM E-CENTRAL MO INTO NERN NEB AT 12Z.

HOWEVER...FEED OF VERY UNSTABLE ELEVATED PARCELS WITHIN NERN

PERIPHERY OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUSTAIN A RISK OF

LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. SURFACE BASED THREAT WILL

INCREASE WITH ANY STORM REMAINING ANCHORED NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY

OVER WRN/CENTRAL IA/NRN MO.

MORE ACTIVE/INTENSE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY AND

FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS

THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. EFFECTS OF EARLY DAY STORMS AND STRONG CAPPING

SHOULD LIMIT ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS.

ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE IN INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE

WRN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE...SUGGESTING SURFACE

RECOVERY/MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD SPREAD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

INTO THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE EXTREME

INSTABILITY AND MID-UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN PLACE SD

AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SRN/WRN ND BY 21-00Z. HOWEVER...THIS

REMAINS QUESTIONABLE TO SOME DEGREE GIVEN AMOUNT OF RECOVERY WHICH

NEEDS TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS...AS MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO APPROACHING

HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...EXPECT NWWD EXTENSION OF RICH

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS INTO WRN-CENTRAL SD/SWRN ND BY LATE TODAY.

THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A ESE-WNW AXIS OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY

FROM THE LOWER MO/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS TOWARDS SWRN ND.

OVERALL SCENARIO OF EXPECTED SEVERE EVENT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT

THIS JUNCTURE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER...

COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY...35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS /SOME SIGNIFICANT/...ESPECIALLY DURING LATTER HALF OF

THE PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STORMS

WILL OCCUR IN MULTIPLE MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AND MAY EVOLVE

INTO A LARGER SEVERE COMPLEX /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ MOVING ESEWD ALONG

INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF MDT RISK AREA LATER THIS

EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH

ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELL...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED

TORNADOES. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE

LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

WV IMAGERY DEPICTS SLOW MOVING IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NM THIS

MORNING. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL

HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY WHERE DEEPLY MIXED AND VERY WARM BOUNDARY

LAYER WILL SUPPORT THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL

THROUGH THE MID EVENING...DESPITE ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE SRN/ERN GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT CENTER NOW OVER CENTRAL IL WILL CONTINUE

SLOWLY EWD TODAY...WHERE LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD

DEVELOP OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID

LEVEL WSWLY FLOW AND ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THREATS OF

LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS

DEVELOP INTO NRN IND/SWRN MI/OH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO

EXPECTED WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY

INTO WRN PA/NY TODAY...IN WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDS/SHALLOW CONVECTION.

FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE DIFFUSE...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT SHEAR

/20-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ WILL BE IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN A RISK OF

LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION.