Typhoon Fengshen

[Somerset Squall]

After a couple weeks of inactivity in the West Pacific, a new tropical depression has formed, to the west of Guam. The LLC has been slowly consolidating over the last couple days and over the last 24 hours convectional banding has been on the increase, so it's not really surprising we've had the upgrade. 07W is still in it's formative stages but convection has persisited near the centre and environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening of the system in the next few days. Low shear, good equatorward outflow and warm sea temps should allow 07W to become a tropical storm and maybe even a typhoon in a couple days time if the favourable environment persists. 07W is slowly drifting westward towards the Phillipines so it needs watching over the coming days.

Edited June 18, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

07W has strengthened over the past 6 hours, and has been upgraded to a 35kt tropical storm by the JTWC. 07W is expected to become a typhoon by 36hrs as favourable conditions persist. Landfall in the Phillipines is looking increasingly unlikey as a recurve scenario is favoured as 07W moves towards a weakness in the ridging to the north and then pushes northeastwards in response to a building ridge to the east. Banding continues to improve and convection is more healthy over the centre than earlier- all indicative of a strengthening tropical cyclone.

[Somerset Squall]

Further strengthening has occured overnight and the storm has been named Fengshen, with an initial intensity of 45kts. Fengshen has developed dual outflow channels which has helped the system intensify more quickly. The track forecast is essentially the same as before, but intensity estimates have risen to a peak of 85kts based on the fact that Fengshen will remain in a very favourable environment. IMO, the ingredients are there for Fengshen to become as strong if not stronger than this in the coming days.

Edited June 19, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[dellboy84]

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/main.html

good outlook of the storm can be found there.

[Cookie]

storm Alert issued at 19 Jun, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FENGSHEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Fengshen has become a typhoon, with an initial intensity of 65kts. An eye has become evident on recent satellite imagery and banding remains good. However, the northward turn has not yet materialised, and Typhoon Fengshen is getting very close to the Philippines now. JTWC have backed off on the intensity forecast due to anticipated land interaction with the Philippines. The reason for the continued westward heading is that the ridge to the north has remained stronger than originally forecast, and Fengshen hasn't found any weakness within the ridge to begin moving northwards. Fengshen is eventually forecast to push northwards as the ridge to the east of the system becomes the dominant steering influence.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 19 Jun, 2008 18:00 GMT

Typhoon FENGSHEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Juan (10.3 N, 125.2 E)

probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Surigao (9.7 N, 125.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the alert Cookie.

Fengshen has intensified further to 80kts, and as Cookie's image shows, has largely refused to push northwards so the forecast track has again shifted westwards. This means that Fengshen will interact with the Philippines for longer than expected which mauy cause damage and heavy flooding. Fengshen is expected to move northwards along the entire length of Luzon which is forecast to significantly weaken Fengshen as the area is mountainous. However, if the track is shifted westwards any more then there is a chance Fengshen will move over warm waters instead so it may be worth watching. When Fengshen exits Luzon, it is forecast to re-strengthen again in a warm water/low shear environment before shear increases again by 120hrs which will weaken the typhoon once more. Overall, if the track forecast is correct for Fengshen then it won't get much stronger if at all in it's lifetime but it could potentially cause some problems for the Philippines.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate

Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2008 12:00 GMT

Typhoon FENGSHEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)

probability for TS is 75% currently

Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)

probability for TS is 40% currently

[Cookie]

new storm alert

Storm Alert issued at 21 Jun, 2008 6:00 GMT

Typhoon FENGSHEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 84 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 84 hours

Hong Kong

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 108 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 84 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 108 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 108 hours

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 108 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 84 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 108 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 108 hours

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 108 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 84 hours

Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 108 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 108 hours

Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 108 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 108 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 108 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 108 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)

probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Fengshen is now a cat 2 typhoon, with sustained winds of 90kts. Once more, the track has shifted further westwards and it seems the possibility of Fengshen emerging into the warm south china sea is high. This means the typhoon probably won't trek over Luzon and therefore won't weaken as much as anticipated. Indeed, the JTWC now forecast a peak of 105kts at around 96hrs due to the forecast taking Fengshen more over water than land. A second landfall is now predicted in Southern China and a straightforward re-curve northeastwards is now looking unlikely. The ridge to the north remains strong for now so don't be surprised to see the forecast track shift even further westwards in later forecasts.

This link shows the new forecast track, which is significantly different from the last one. (You only need to remember back a few forecasts to when Fengshen was forcasted to move northwards east of the Philippines!)

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/W...ull/Latest.html

Latest image of a very well organised Fengshen:

Edited June 20, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

thnaks for the update mate and the link

[kold weather]

Offical forecast has it at 95kts but I'm not having that this system is looking way more organised then that, the eye is fairly clear and IMO 115kts is far closer to the truth right now,m cold cloud tops indicating deep convection is present throughout the CDO and eyewall of this system and we've got a very healthy looking eye as well right now. IMO this could easily be a cat-4 coming very close to the southern islands and Sat.estimates are pretty close to that as well. JTWC progging the system reaching about 110kts over the water.

If thats a cat-2 then its the best cat-2 I've ever seen in my entire life!

Also track continues to be westward though it is wobbling about now between the islands avoiding direct landfall but it does mean the eyewalls are hiting the islands very hard, your going to likely see 150mph gusts in the eyewall at the moment. Anyway the forecast track has been very bad from the offical agencies, they progged a trough would pick up the storm well before now and yet it appears the first one bypassed the system and so this has allowed the system to remain on a W/WNW track. It should eventually be picked up by the next trough thats diving down in the next 24hrs and be turned to the NW and then NNW but how much further west it gets is uncertain...current forecast track has it getting fairly close to Hong Kong so we will have to wait and see what happens!

Edited June 21, 2008 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for your input KW, much appreciated. I agree, seems like both JMA and JTWC underestimating things again! Remember Hondo?

Anyway, Fengshen has begun moving north-northwestwards now and latest tracks consider interaction with Luzon again. It is all really very uncertain as Fengshen is in a competetive steering environment between a ridge to the east and the persistant ridge to the north. The land interaction is expected to weaken Fengshen. Intensity has been lowered to 80kts for this JTWC advisory and I actually agree with this as Fengshen isn't looking as impressive as earlier and now the eye is largely cloud filled. After Luzon, Fengshen is forecasted (with great uncertainty) to move near Taiwan and South China as a minimal typhoon.

Fengshen has already killed 19 people:

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iJYVQp...m76YSfbkba30nnw

[Cookie]

Looks a good storm

Typhoon FENGSHEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)

probability for TS is 85% currently

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Edited June 21, 2008 by cookie

[Cookie]

an update

m Alert issued at 22 Jun, 2008 6:00 GMT

Typhoon FENGSHEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently

probability for TS is 95% currently

San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 85% currently

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

[Gray-Wolf]

Over 700 feared lost as a ferry capsizes in the typhoon, the ferry ran aground on Saturday and coastguards couldn't get to it for the swell. Life rafts seem to have capsized in the high sea swells. Only 4 people have been found alive so far.

Another 155 have been reported killed by Fengshen across the Philippines.

Sounds a bad one.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed GW, a very vigorous typhoon which has spent a good 48 hours interacting with land, so it was bound to cause trouble. Let's hope more people are rescued from that ferry, but in one of the news articles there is a very good question posed: why was the ship out there in the first place?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Fengshen has been weakening over the last 24 hours, and is expected to continue to weaken to a tropical storm as it continues to interact with Luzon according to the JTWC. I'm not too sure about this however, I'm going with the JMA and say Fengshen may retain typhoon status throughout it's journey over Luzon. The official forecast has Fengshen regaining typhoon status anyway to the north of Luzon then it seems Taiwan and southeast China are in the firing line...

Second article with the total death toll figure so far: http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/id...-34170920080622

Edited June 22, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

not good about the ferry!

[tinybill]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/t...tifier=WP072008

looking at that its a beast

[Gray-Wolf]

Indeed GW, a very vigorous typhoon which has spent a good 48 hours interacting with land, so it was bound to cause trouble. Let's hope more people are rescued from that ferry, but in one of the news articles there is a very good question posed: why was the ship out there in the first place?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Indeed! it is not as though the forecasters have been taken by surprise by it. I suppose that, for a nation of islands, their use of ferries is extensive and the 'demands/needs' of folk to get home lead to poor decisions being made (on occasions).

It (Fengshen) seems to be getting a second wind (excuse the pun) now it's leaving land.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 22 Jun, 2008 12:00 GMT

Typhoon FENGSHEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

[kold weather]

The simple reason why this ferry has been caught out IMO is that this system was probably way stronger then offical forecasts showed, it looked like a category-4 system and Sat.estimates by experts agreed with that yet they only offically put this at a cat-2. Whilst of course a cat-2 is dangerous for ferries I suppose they thought that they could at least stay intact however if this really was a cat-4 like I've got a strong feeling it might have been is clearly another beast totally...

[Cookie]

will we ever find out if it was a cat 4?

new update

Typhoon FENGSHEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for TS is 65% currently

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

The simple reason why this ferry has been caught out IMO is that this system was probably way stronger then offical forecasts showed, it looked like a category-4 system and Sat.estimates by experts agreed with that yet they only offically put this at a cat-2. Whilst of course a cat-2 is dangerous for ferries I suppose they thought that they could at least stay intact however if this really was a cat-4 like I've got a strong feeling it might have been is clearly another beast totally...

Maybe KW, I think it was higher than a 95kt cat 2 aswell, but you still wouldn't catch me out in a boat that windspeed either! A high end cat 2 is still incredibly dangerous for vessels as you say.

will we ever find out if it was a cat 4?

Yes, we should do Cookie, the JTWC do an annual report of tropical cyclones every year:

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/atcr/atcr_archive.html

For example, they did not pick up Tropical Storm Haiyan last year but have added it on after re-analysis. It will be interesting to see what they say about this storm and also Hondo (South Indian Ocean) from earlier in the year.

Anyway, Fengshen is holding typhoon intensity (65kt) at the moment and is back over the warm, open waters of the South China sea. However, strengthening is not forecast as strong shear is offsetting the otherwise favourable environment. There is more confidence in the forecast track now as the northern ridge is moving away and the eastern ridge should begin to take full influence of the steering of Fengshen. By 48hrs, Fengshen should be very near Taiwan and Southeastern China where it could cause more problems before accelerating northeastwards towards Japan and becoming extratropical by around 96hrs.

Image of Fengshen, clearly shows a strongly sheared system barely holding on to typhoon status:

Edited June 22, 2008 by Somerset Squall