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Typhoon Fengshen


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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yep Fengshen has struggled with the shear. Miocrowave imagery shows it s lacking any major inner core organisation and the double combo of land and then recently the shear has prevented any further strengthening. Convection has increased closer to the center again and has got deeper and a little better organised but the shear does not appear to be easing any time soon and if anything gets worse in the next 12-24hrs. I suspect right now its around 60kts, I don't think its a typhoon anymore looking at its organisation.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Indeed, Fengshen is no longer a typhoon. It has been maintaining intensity at 55kts all day according to the JTWC. Shear is still strong over the system, but could ease tomorrow as Fengshen finally turns northwards into a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north. Track continues to shift westwards as Fengshen continues to move northwestwards, and Fengshen is now forecasted to make landfall in Southeastern China, east of Hong Kong. Land interaction here should induce further weakening before Fengshen pulls northeastwards towards Japan and starts extratropical transition by 96hrs.

Image of Fengshen:

sm20080623.2130.gms6.x.ir1km_bw.07WFENGSHEN.55kts-982mb-185N-1163E.100pc.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Tropical Storm FENGSHEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Hong Kong

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

new update

Storm Alert issued at 24 Jun, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FENGSHEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Hong Kong

probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Macau

probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Thanks for the alert cookie.

Fengshen continues to be a forecasting nightmare. The storm still won't turn northwards, and as a consequence, is now expected to make landfall near Hong Kong, Southern China. Taiwan is no longer expected to be in the firing line for Fengshen. Fengshen is now predicted to dissipate inland in Southern China and is not expected to re-emerge over water or turn extratropical near Japan as originally forecast.

Fengshen has been roughly maintaining intensity over the last 24 hours in a marginal environment of high shear but good equatorward outflow. Initial intensity is 50kts, and Fengshen is expected to hold this intensity until landfall which is forecasted to occur in 12 hours.

sm20080624.1657.gms6.x.ir1km_bw.07WFENGSHEN.50kts-985mb-214N-1150E.100pc.jpg

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

why isn't the storm tracking north?

Storm Alert issued at 24 Jun, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FENGSHEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Hong Kong

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Macau

probability for TS is 75% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for TS is 95% currently

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for TS is 75% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)

probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
why isn't the storm tracking north?

It finally is now, but the problem has been how much the models have been understimating the subtropical steering ridge to the north. Because it has been stronger than anticipated, Fengshen has constantly moved further west than forecast. Originally it was expectected to weaken and a steering ridge to the east was forecast to have more influence which would send Fengshen northwards. However, as the ridge to the north remained strong, westwards is where Fengshen ended up going. Interesting to note the initial JTWC forecast had Fengshen moving northwards to the east of the Philippines, look how much further westwards it actually ended up!

The storm is now making landfall and should steadily weaken until dissipation over land.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

thanks mate :rolleyes:

Storm Alert issued at 25 Jun, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FENGSHEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for TS is 95% currently

Hong Kong

probability for TS is 95% currently

Macau

probability for TS is 85% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)

probability for TS is 95% currently

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for TS is 90% currently

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

final update on fengshen

Storm Alert issued at 25 Jun, 2008 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression FENGSHEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for TS is 70% currently

Hong Kong

probability for TS is 60% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Macau

probability for TS is 35% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for TS is 35% currently

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Yup, it's bye bye Fengshen. The depression has now dissipated northwest of Hong Kong. Still may give some wet weather to southern areas of China over the next day or two.

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  • 3 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
will we ever find out if it was a cat 4?

JTWC have re-analysed Fengshen which previously officially peaked at 95kts (we all knew it was higher), and they have upgraded it to a 110kt cat 3.

Wiki also shows that final death toll is 1356, with 41 missing (probably dead as the typhoon occured in June :( ), making Fengshen the deadliest storm in the West Pacific so far this year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Fengshen_(2008)

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