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July CET


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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Reef, i hav'nt veiwed the models since thursday, can i take it that next week is looking cold (monday looked horribel but rest was okay at last glance).

850 ensembles would suggest a slightly below average week. Nothing much over 10C until well into FI land

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
850 ensembles would suggest a slightly below average week. Nothing much over 10C until well into FI land

Err six degrees below average I don't think so. Yes below average but not by that much. One degree at most.

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Posted
  • Location: Brixton, South London
  • Location: Brixton, South London
Err six degrees below average I don't think so. Yes below average but not by that much. One degree at most.

Pit, I think that Stu's reference was to London 850's and not 2m temperatures: the average 850 is about 9.

regards

ACB

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Pit, I think that Stu's reference was to London 850's and not 2m temperatures: the average 850 is about 9.

regards

ACB

Thank you ACB - I should have perhaps been more specific.

If the 2m temp was 10C in July, I think it would be a concern for everyone.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
Err six degrees below average I don't think so. Yes below average but not by that much. One degree at most.

It'd be more then six degrees below average. Average temperature in London at this stage is around 21c. 10c 2M would be more like 11c below normal.

Mean maxima will generally be around 3c below average over this coming week.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I've reveiwed the ensembles, and they offer some pretty mixed reading, firstly, the low point of the current spell looks to be the 8th to 10th, and slowly rising after that, so that by the 21st, we look to be in the region of 16C to 16.5C (slightly below average), unfortunately for people like me who have punted well below, the 19th to the end of the run looks like it could produce a heatwave with large ensemble support.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

Believe the ensembles at your own peril!

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
I've reveiwed the ensembles, and they offer some pretty mixed reading, firstly, the low point of the current spell looks to be the 8th to 10th, and slowly rising after that, so that by the 21st, we look to be in the region of 16C to 16.5C (slightly below average), unfortunately for people like me who have punted well below, the 19th to the end of the run looks like it could produce a heatwave with large ensemble support.

The ensemble average being a degree or two above the usual for time of year 12 or 13 days out is hardly heatwave territory. Still plenty of runs below average also.

A long time before pattern change can be called in my opinion and below average still looks the percentage call.

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Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

Hadley is 16.0C today (Jul 1 - 6). This is still 0.2C above the 1971-2000 running mean.

Edited by Kentish Man
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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Current Net-weather tracker has the temperature at 15.9c. Period 8th-13th looks to average around 13.9c. CET by the 13th should be around 15.0c which is almost indentical to last July (where it was at 15.1c and where it almost finished of as)

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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

Just 16.6 here today. If thats replicated across the CET zone, we should see a pretty large fall for today.

Edited by Gavin P
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

A slight drop in Hadley figure down to 15.9C up the 7th.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Having reveiwed the GFS ensembles, the chance of 30C being reched is now null until at least the 24th, the CET looks to be lowest tommorow before a bigger rise between the 15th and 20th, by which time the CET may be above 17C.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

I think thats a bit (or rather a lot) optimistic. Assuming the CET to the 8th when it updates tomorrow is 15.8C, we would require 17.8C every day from then on to get to 17C by the 20th.

Thats ignoring the fact that outside of the south-east, most places will struggle to get to 20C during the day this week, with minimas rather cold on some nights.

I do agree on the 30C though, we're about as far away from that as possible at this time of the year.

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Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
I think thats a bit (or rather a lot) optimistic. Assuming the CET to the 8th when it updates tomorrow is 15.8C, we would require 17.8C every day from then on to get to 17C by the 20th.

Thats ignoring the fact that outside of the south-east, most places will struggle to get to 20C during the day this week, with minimas rather cold on some nights.

I do agree on the 30C though, we're about as far away from that as possible at this time of the year.

Hadley has updated and stands at 15.7C up to yesterday.

I agree with Reef that 17.0C (by coincidence my guess for the month) looks very far away at the moment. In fact the last 2 GFS runs plus the latest ECM suggest a cool NW type will predominate after the current unsettled spell. The question now is will we even reach last year's July CET of 15.1C. As things stand we may well not.

Edited by Kentish Man
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Hadley has updated and stands at 15.7C up to yesterday.

I agree with Reef that 17.0C (by coincidence my guess for the month) looks very far away at the moment. In fact the last 2 GFS runs plus the latest ECM suggest a cool NW type will predominate after the current unsettled spell. The question now is will we even reach last year's July CET of 15.1C. As things stand we may well not.

With most runs below average largely throughout the forecast period there is the prospect of a July in the 14s for the first time since 1988.

I remember that one and it was an absolute 'shocker'

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

The next few days look like producing falls to the CET - around 15C dead for me by mid month.

Odds for an above average month are lenghtening all the time - probably no better the 15% or so now, given the immediate outlook.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Hadley is now 15.5C to the 9th. Today may see a slight rise, but the overall trend over the next few days is still downwards. Sub-15C by the 15th?

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Certainly looking like the first half of this month will go down as a cool one. It doesn't feel like we entering high summer, maximum temps of 17 degrees here in Tyneside is quite poor. I note the last 2 days we have only scraped a national max of just above 20 degrees, very poor statistics. However, I still think the second half of the month will produce a spell of warm/very warm weather perhaps not enough though to bring the CET to anything but slightly above average, that is perhaps the high benchmark we can realistically hope for going by the trend for generally unsettled weather prevailing throughout and winds from a 'westerly' quarter, hope I'm wrong though!

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Certainly looking like the first half of this month will go down as a cool one. It doesn't feel like we entering high summer, maximum temps of 17 degrees here in Tyneside is quite poor. I note the last 2 days we have only scraped a national max of just above 20 degrees, very poor statistics. However, I still think the second half of the month will produce a spell of warm/very warm weather perhaps not enough though to bring the CET to anything but slightly above average, that is perhaps the high benchmark we can realistically hope for going by the trend for generally unsettled weather prevailing throughout and winds from a 'westerly' quarter, hope I'm wrong though!

Even to get to slightly above average would require a notable hot spell unless the immediate outlook changes considerably for the warmer.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Going by the temperatures on the GFS 6z, we would be running at 14.8-15.0C by the 18th. If the FI came off, we'd possibly be looking at mid-14s by the last week.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

GFS runs the temperature average at 14.2c for the period 12th-15th with some unusually cold nights. Currently it's at 15.3c so should be around 15.0 by the 15th, 1.5c below average.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Even to get to slightly above average would require a notable hot spell unless the immediate outlook changes considerably for the warmer.

Yes I'm now beginning to think the same its going to take a noticeably very warm spell to help shift the CET to a bit above average by the months end,I'm still clinging onto the hope partly as I will be away during the period 25th-29th July in N/NW Scotland, my ideal scenario would be for high pressure just to the east of scotland ensuring I get a dry warm period, I'm not liking the North westerly scenario with pressure high to the south west of us which most of the models are going for as this would mean yuk cloud drizzle cold stuff.

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