MetO Weather warning watch

[The PIT]

Well the warning has run it's course and was wrong. Present success rate 42.5% a slight improvement.

[reef]

We've had 56.2mm in the last 36 hours so the warning was pretty good for here too.

[Terminal Moraine]

Another advisory for Derbyshire and South Yorkshire, issued late yesterday evening, warning of a low to moderate risk of heavy showers or longer spells of rain for today.

No sign of anything notable upwind at the moment but I suppose there's time yet.

Edited September 7, 2008 by Terminal Moraine

[The PIT]

Another advisory for Derbyshire and South Yorkshire, issued late yesterday evening, warning of a low to moderate risk of heavy showers or longer spells of rain for today.

No sign of anything notable upwind at the moment but I suppose there's time yet.

Yes missed that one didn't look as the mornings forecast made no real mention of heavy showers etc. Heavy thundery shower now with lightning and very impressive rain rates. Sudden change from a nice sunny day with the odd light shower

[Terminal Moraine]

The warning was certainly warranted as, although we missed all the action, only a mile or so to the east there was a 30 minute torrential downpour this afternoon which caused local flooding and gave around 15mm of rain.

[Terminal Moraine]

The latest advisory for this area is out for Thursday. Rainfall accumulations of 15-25mm, and locally up to 30mm, possible. If the GFS 0600 is anything to go by we could be seeing further advisories or warnings issued for Friday, they seem to expect an area of low pressure to develop on the cold front which moves east on Thursday and for this low to track westward across central England, potentially bringing some very heavy rain.

The Met' Office seems to think the cold front will move east and then potentially slow over easternmost counties, without the development of an area of low pressure.

One to watch closely.

[The PIT]

The latest advisory for this area is out for Thursday. Rainfall accumulations of 15-25mm, and locally up to 30mm, possible. If the GFS 0600 is anything to go by we could be seeing further advisories or warnings issued for Friday, they seem to expect an area of low pressure to develop on the cold front which moves east on Thursday and for this low to track westward across central England, potentially bringing some very heavy rain.

The Met' Office seems to think the cold front will move east and then potentially slow over easternmost counties, without the development of an area of low pressure.

One to watch closely.

Coming fast and furious at the moment aren't they. Tomorrow maybe interesting as well.

[The PIT]

All warnings for severe weather in South Yorkshire were removed on Tuesday.

[Geordiesnow]

Some weather watches has been put in force today by the Met Office for NE England it says ''Rain over the North Sea will affect parts of north-eastern England today. Some of this rain may become heavy towards North Sea coasts''. I am not sure why there is a weather watch out to be honest, the rain does not look all that heavy on the radar and i can only assume its there is a watch in force because of all the flooding in the affected areas, for example i noticed whilst i was in North Yorkshire yesterday there was alot of surface water on the fields but does today's rain really need to be kept an eye on? Looks like whenever we are going to get rain from now a weather watch/warning will be put in place.

[johnholmes]

nor do I understand why they have a weather watch out for 'heavy rain'. Had it been over a hiily region with a major river running through an area recently affected by flooding perhaps but not the way its worded.

seems rather unnecessary to me

Edited September 12, 2008 by johnholmes

[MisfitDog3]

warnings being widened over large parts of southern England now. Sky darkening and thunder now audible.

[The PIT]

Long time since the last warning but here we go

A period of heavy rain through the rest of the night and into Sunday morning will give falls of 15 to 20mm within 3 hours, with overall falls of 40 to 60mm in places. The rain will clear from the west during the morning.

Well we hit 30.2mm so this warnings correct.

[The PIT]

Long time since we had one of these.

There is a moderate risk of a short-lived severe weather event spreading from the west across many northern, central and eastern parts of Britain during the first half of Sunday. A spell of snow will be followed by rain falling onto frozen surfaces which could give widespread ice for a time on roads and pavements. There is the potential for 2 to 5cm of snow and locally up to 10cm before a thaw sets in from the west.

[Snowyowl9]

Long time since we had one of these.

There is a moderate risk of a short-lived severe weather event spreading from the west across many northern, central and eastern parts of Britain during the first half of Sunday. A spell of snow will be followed by rain falling onto frozen surfaces which could give widespread ice for a time on roads and pavements.

Freezing rain in other words

East anglia will get the most snow.

Only expecting rain here.

[Terminal Moraine]

I have an open mind on this one. It's the sort of situation where I could get 6cm of snow or just half an hour of wet snowflakes before it all turns to rain. The temperature is falling quite nicely, it's currently -0.4c despite a good cover of stratocumulus, then again I've seen it around -2c only to rise 3 or 4 degrees in the spaces of a couple of hours as a warm sector moves in.

Cautious optimism is the order of the day here.

[The PIT]

Depth of Snow well off as normal but we did have freezing rain briefly so warning was right for the ice but not needed for the Snow.

[Terminal Moraine]

Certainly not a snow event, although we have got 1cm lying, but we have had several hours of freezing rain mixed with snow and graupel; the local roads are treacherous and the warning was certainly warrented here for that alone.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I think the warning for here, when I looked last night, was only valid until 06.00 today. OK, not really anything to cause problems, but it certainly snowed which on untreated roads is always going to be a nightmare. Higher routes will always be worst hit of course, so even some motorways may have some trecherous driving conditions.

[The PIT]

Ah another warning or watch if you prefer

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of northern England, the far northeast of Wales and much of the Midlands. There is the potential for 2 to 5 cm of snow associated with a band of wintry precipitation, moving quickly southeastwards during Tuesday morning.

Issued at: 1059 Mon 1 Dec

Normally met office flop badly here when estimating snow depths will they break the trend time will tell.

[The PIT]

LOL another warning bites the dust. Few snow flakes then sleet. Depth 0 cm.

[Terminal Moraine]

Well, not 1979 but a warning just about warranted in these parts. Only 3cm of snow but it did fall very heavily for a short spell and there are several reports locally of lorries stuck on hills. Overall not too much of a problem but if you're behind one of those lorries, and late for work, a different story.

[da_bish]

Continuation of METO's covering the infamous 6 O'clock region....

[johnholmes]

rather than worrying or rather hoping as many do that the Met O warnings will come to fruition, why not take a reality check and use what NW issues.

Take it from me every possible Watch/Alert we issue is carefully considered before issuing. To blow our own trumpet once more we are not far off the mark.

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow currently moving across western Scotland will continue to make their way southeastwards, laying across Wales and northern England by dawn on Tuesday, before clearing the southeast of England by Tuesday afternoon. Whilst amounts aren't expected to be significant, there is the risk of accumulation of snow of up to 5cm over higher ground across northern England, north Wales and across Scotland overnight tonight, and where any precipitation falls, ice is likely to become a widespread hazard.

Edited December 2, 2008 by johnholmes

[The PIT]

rather than worrying or rather hoping as many do that the Met O warnings will come to fruition, why not take a reality check and use what NW issues.

Take it from me every possible Watch/Alert we issue is carefully considered before issuing. To blow our own trumpet once more we are not far off the mark.

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow currently moving across western Scotland will continue to make their way southeastwards, laying across Wales and northern England by dawn on Tuesday, before clearing the southeast of England by Tuesday afternoon. Whilst amounts aren't expected to be significant, there is the risk of accumulation of snow of up to 5cm over higher ground across northern England, north Wales and across Scotland overnight tonight, and where any precipitation falls, ice is likely to become a widespread hazard.

Some time ago I said I'd stopped taking notice of warnings from the MetO as they tended to be very over hyped and take notice of Netweather only. The clincher being the storm that never was. However I thought it was interesting to see what they actually success rate was and where the weaknesses are .

So far the weakness are in rainfall amounts predicted. Tend to be a long way off.

Unsurprisingly the same goes for Snow depth which is linked to the above.

Thunderstorms as expected they struggle with.

I'll put up the marks in June and we'll see how good or bad they are. There is another warning out for Thursday already but I'll look at that Wednesday night as it may have changed by then.

Edited December 2, 2008 by The PIT

[The PIT]

Well the latest and greatest from the Met Office

There is a high risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of Scotland and the northern half of England. Snow spreading from the west on Wednesday evening will become persistent and heavy at times by the early hours of Thursday morning, eventually clearing away eastwards from England by Thursday afternoon and from most of Scotland by the evening. On low lying ground there is the potential for 2 to 5 cm of snow to accumulate, while on ground above about 150 metres accumulations of 10 to 20 cm are expected, with blizzard conditions and considerable drifting in strong winds. This is likely to cause disruption to travel networks, particularly across higher level routes.

This warning is likely to be superceded by Flash warnings.

Recent years History is against this will it happen this time????