Gavin's Thoughts (June 21st)

[Gavin P]

Hello folks,

This week promise's a slightly better prospect for much of England and Wales, with our long awaited summer friend The Azores High finally showing signs of ridging into France and just about coming close enough to give England and Wales a mainly fine week with temperature near average (as its "one of those summers" its never going to be completely fine, so expect a couple of bouts of cloud and showery rain on Wednesday and Friday) For Scotland, Northern England and Ireland, I'm afraid its a much poorer outlook with unseasonably intense lows dominating giving several bouts of wet and windy weather, and temperatures will be beneath par as well.

This weekend the UK is being battered by an unusually deep low pressure system that wouldn't look out of place in October. Much of the country will see summer gales late tonight and through tomorrow morning!

So Saturday is a cloudy and wet day for much of Ireland, Wales, Northern England and the West Midlands, with lighter rain extending into the East Midlands and East Anglia. To the south, grey skies should give way to brighter conditions this afternoon, with some warm sunshine coming through, though this may spark off some showers. Scotland should see a mainly fine day with sunshine gradually giivng way to cloud and outbreaks of rain pushing into Southern Scotland by the end of the afternoon. Temperatures up to a warm and humid 20c in the far south, 14-16c in the rain, and 17-18c for Scotland.

Overnight, the heavy rain across the middle of the country will push into Scotland, with another bout if heavy and squally rain then sweeping across England and Wales from the west. The low pressure will be really winding itself up giving the whole country strong winds, but for Scotland, Ireland, Northern England and North Wales I think winds could touch gale or severe gale force, so gusts of 60-70mph can't be ruled out by the end of the night. Obviously with trees in full leaf this unusually windy spell of weather could prove very hazardous indeed, with trees being brought down. A warm and humid night everywhere.

Sunday sees the deep autumnal type low continuing to dominate the weather as it sits over the top of the country. England and Wales starts with the squally rain sweeping across all parts first thing and then clearing away into the Continent to leave a mainly bright and windy day with a few showers. Scotland will have heavy and persistent rain continuing all day, though it should slowly start to pull away into the north sea late on. The gale or severe gale force gusts will be the main talking point for Sunday, however. Temps about average, 16-20c north to south, but feeling fresher everywhere because of the wind, and particularly cold and miserable under the rain across Scotland.

Monday will find the low pressure clearing away into the Continent, with a weak ridge of high pressure attempting to build across the UK.

Most places should have a dry and bright day on Monday, with much lighter winds. Still some showers in the east, but these should be light and scattered. Basically its a dry day with sunny spells and cloud. Cool air will have been brought down across the country by the low, so temps a bit under par 15-19c. And watch out for an unusually cold night everywhere on Monday night, with the risk of ground frost as far south as the Midlands!

Tuesday should be very similar to Monday, with high pressure ridging across the country. the next low pressure will be heading towards Ireland by the end of the day.

A very cold start for much of the UK on Tuesday morning, but temperatures should soon warm up under the mid summer sunshine. We should see more in the way of sunshine on Tuesday than will be the case on Monday and temps should be somewhat higher, despite that cold start. Later in the day cloudy skies and wet weather will push into Ireland and Western Scotland. Temps 17-19c in the north, 20-21c in the south - About average!

Overnight, heavy rain and strong winds will push through Ireland and Scotland, whilst the south stays dry. A much milder night for all.

On Wednesday, low pressure to the north of Scotland will be the driving feature, but pressure is building at last over France. This should start to act as something of a protective shield for much of England and Wales as the low pressure pushes its fronts south.

A wet and windy day for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England unfortunatly on Wednesday. The rain should give way to sunshine and showers for Scotland by afternoon. England and Wales get off to a sunny start, but cloud and showery rain will gradually push south through the afternoon, but the far south probably hangs on to warm and sunny weather all day. Temps very cool in the north, 14-16c, 19-21c in the south.

On Thursday and Friday confidence falls. Low pressure will still be the driving force to the north of Scotland, but models differ on how much protection the Azores High over France will afford the country. I think both Thursday and Friday will be unsettled days for Scotland and Northern Ireland, with heavy rain and strong winds at times and showers in between. England and Wales probably gets a dry and warm Thursday, with showery rain coming through on Friday. Temps still very poor for the north, 15-16c, quite warm for the south, 21-23c (70-73f)

Next weekend could be dry and warm for the whole country... Maybe..

Summary: Unusually windy and unsettled this weekend with severe gales possible. Very unsettled in the north all week, possibly becoming drier and warmer with some sunshine in the south.

*This is to the mods. To stop my threads dominating the first page, do you want to deleate my previous threads, when I post a new one every Saturday? That way it will stop too many threads from clogging up your pages.*

Edited June 21, 2008 by Gavin P

[damianslaw]

Another succinct easy to read forecast Gavin. I do enjoy reading your forecasts.

Looks like a typical national split i.e. north and west will suffer the worse whilst further south and east you go the better. Been quite a while since we've seen the traditional split , however, it co-incides with the time of year when we begin to see the atlantic re-energise itself on its traditional westerly trajectory. Lets hopw this isn't a pattern we get stuck in for the rest of the summer, I' hoping for some good weekends for walking in Scotland/Cheviots/North Pennines and Lake District. With this pattern it will be a miserable affair.

[Gavin P]

Cheers Damien.

I've got strong doubts about this summer now, so whatever fine and warm day we get, we should make the most of them, IMO.

[PersianPaladin]

Cheers Damien.

I've got strong doubts about this summer now, so whatever fine and warm day we get, we should make the most of them, IMO.

It wont be as bad as last summer.

(Mmm....didn't we say that about this winter vs last winter??)

:huh:

Anyway...keep those thoughts coming Gav. Wish I could be more optimistic.

Edited June 21, 2008 by PersianPaladin

[Gavin P]

It won't be as bad as last summer, but given how dreadful last summer was, thats not saying much. Or, in other words, theres a large way to go from last summer to a good summer and I think 2008 will fall somewhere in between that gap.