30 YEARS OF GLOBAL COOLING HAS ALREADY STARTED

[sub-polar men]

Solar cycle 23 is going to be about 13 years long. The longest since 1790. it’s been known by solar scientist that the longer the solar cycle the weaker in amplitude of the next 2 solar cycles. Solar cycle 24 is going to be very weak. Solar Cycle 24 and 25 should take us up to 2030. The weak amplitude of solar cycles 24 and 25 will likely cool the globe for 30 years. The earth as already cooled over the past 2 years and is likely to accelerate over the coming years. China as already seen their coldest winter for 100 years. Sydney has seen their first snowfall for decades.

As when the earth cools the temperature gradient increases between the poles and the equator. This will make the jet stream increase its speed from west to east. Britain’s autumn and winters will become milder, maritime in the short term. When the temperature gradient continue to increase between the poles and the equator the jet-stream becomes unstable and more likely to break up in to anticyclone blocking and cyclones. The anticyclone blocking will develop from Siberia to Iceland bringing in months of polar continental air to the UK in winter

The CO2 is to weak of a greenhouse gas to stop natural cooling. As when the oceans cools it will absorb all of the manmade CO2 and a large amount of natural CO2

Ice cores show temperature go up first then CO2 follows

The evidence supporting the manmade global warming hypothesis is getting less and less. There is a large amount of jobs and government tax dependent on the manmade global warming hypothesis so there will be allot of political spin in the data.

[noggin]

Thanks from me, sub-polar men, for bringing up the subject of the Sun. I have long held the belief that it is the Sun which drives our climate and although I have not posted for a while, I have, on a daily basis been monitoring the progress of Solar Cycle 24. It started much, much later than was predicted by many, including NASA, and really has hardly done anything since. I think the first spot was in January this year and hardly anything has happened since.

I appreciate that not everyone sees things the same, but for me, the levelling off or even cooling of the global temperature over the last few years fits in very nicely with solar activity. The Earth, seas and oceans work on the same principle as a night-storage heater....absorbing the heat given out by the Sun and gradually releasing it over time. The heat which was absorbed in the 80s and 90s is now running out and that, combined with the currently inactive Sun is leading us into colder times.

Here is a link http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/...st-established/

I appreciate that some people may be dismissive of it as it is a blog, but the reason that I refer to this blogger is that he and I are of the same view and the blog contains the necessary links to back the views up.

Oh....Good morning to everyone!

[Mammatus]

Solar cycle 23 is going to be about 13 years long. The longest since 1790. it’s been known by solar scientist that the longer the solar cycle the weaker in amplitude of the next 2 solar cycles. Solar cycle 24 is going to be very weak. Solar Cycle 24 and 25 should take us up to 2030. The weak amplitude of solar cycles 24 and 25 will likely cool the globe for 30 years. The earth as already cooled over the past 2 years and is likely to accelerate over the coming years. China as already seen their coldest winter for 100 years. Sydney has seen their first snowfall for decades.

As when the earth cools the temperature gradient increases between the poles and the equator. This will make the jet stream increase its speed from west to east. Britain’s autumn and winters will become milder, maritime in the short term. When the temperature gradient continue to increase between the poles and the equator the jet-stream becomes unstable and more likely to break up in to anticyclone blocking and cyclones. The anticyclone blocking will develop from Siberia to Iceland bringing in months of polar continental air to the UK in winter

The CO2 is to weak of a greenhouse gas to stop natural cooling. As when the oceans cools it will absorb all of the manmade CO2 and a large amount of natural CO2

Ice cores show temperature go up first then CO2 follows

The evidence supporting the manmade global warming hypothesis is getting less and less. There is a large amount of jobs and government tax dependent on the manmade global warming hypothesis so there will be allot of political spin in the data.

Good thread 'sub polar men'. I quite agree with you and what an excellent post. Global Cooling is now kicking in, and the effects are being felt worldwide (Not only in the cool and cloudy NW Europe). Let the cooling commence!!!

TA

[noggin]

Can I just add this link as a very good daily check for the level of solar activity:

http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm

It is a link that was kindly provided by an NW poster some time ago, sorry I can't remember who it was, but it has proved very useful, so a big "thank you" to whoever it was!

[jethro]

Rushing out the door so haven't got time to comment on the thread - later

Just wanted to say, welcome back Noggin, good to see you around these parts again, hope you're well.

[Gray-Wolf]

Even if you open the doors on a freezin' night if your heatings on up full you'll not get cold.

Even if we are in a 'natural cycle' of 'cold proportions' mans influence will either mild it or negate it. As for the future, well, IMHO, we will not see a return to major ice epochs until our 'mess ' is well and truely removed.......which will probably necessitate the removal of us.

[sub-polar men]

Even if you open the doors on a freezin' night if your heatings on up full you'll not get cold.

Even if we are in a 'natural cycle' of 'cold proportions' mans influence will either mild it or negate it. As for the future, well, IMHO, we will not see a return to major ice epochs until our 'mess ' is well and truely removed.......which will probably necessitate the removal of us.

CO2 is to weak of a greenhouse gas to stop natural cooling on the magnitude of what we are looking at.

Edited June 25, 2008 by sub-polar men

[Gray-Wolf]

It is the warming already in the pipeline that I'm thinking of. Some of the waters warmed in the pre global dimming has not yet completed it's round the world trip and when this starts to feed back into surface waters then we've got one heck of a radiator cosseting the globe, I mean look what the NAD does for NW Europe. Couple in with that the next 10yrs of Methane seepage from the melting Northern permafrosts and the picture, to me, ain't pretty. A major cool down could well be what we need to buy us back the 30yrs we've just wasted on arguments .

[Mr Sleet]

Solar cycle 23 is going to be about 13 years long. The longest since 1790. it’s been known by solar scientist that the longer the solar cycle the weaker in amplitude of the next 2 solar cycles. Solar cycle 24 is going to be very weak. Solar Cycle 24 and 25 should take us up to 2030. The weak amplitude of solar cycles 24 and 25 will likely cool the globe for 30 years. The earth as already cooled over the past 2 years and is likely to accelerate over the coming years. China as already seen their coldest winter for 100 years. Sydney has seen their first snowfall for decades.

As when the earth cools the temperature gradient increases between the poles and the equator. This will make the jet stream increase its speed from west to east. Britain’s autumn and winters will become milder, maritime in the short term. When the temperature gradient continue to increase between the poles and the equator the jet-stream becomes unstable and more likely to break up in to anticyclone blocking and cyclones. The anticyclone blocking will develop from Siberia to Iceland bringing in months of polar continental air to the UK in winter

The CO2 is to weak of a greenhouse gas to stop natural cooling. As when the oceans cools it will absorb all of the manmade CO2 and a large amount of natural CO2

Ice cores show temperature go up first then CO2 follows

The evidence supporting the manmade global warming hypothesis is getting less and less. There is a large amount of jobs and government tax dependent on the manmade global warming hypothesis so there will be allot of political spin in the data.

Great post SPM , lets hope for many more from you !

[Devonian]

Solar cycle 23 is going to be about 13 years long.

Humm, well I see it began in May 1996 so that would take us up to past November before it's 'about' 13 years. Well see, but you don't know yet it will be about 13 years.

The longest since 1790. it’s been known by solar scientist that the longer the solar cycle the weaker in amplitude of the next 2 solar cycles. Solar cycle 24 is going to be very weak. Solar Cycle 24 and 25 should take us up to 2030. The weak amplitude of solar cycles 24 and 25 will likely cool the globe for 30 years.

This both assumes cycle 23 will be 'about 13 years long' and then make a prediction of solar activity for the next three decades odd. We don't know that, indeed, I think it's pure speculation - but my question would be do you base it on some kind of recognised science? What science?

Solar Cycle 24 and 25 should take us up to 2030. The weak amplitude of solar cycles 24 and 25 will likely cool the globe for 30 years. The earth as already cooled over the past 2 years and is likely to accelerate over the coming years. China as already seen their coldest winter for 100 years. Sydney has seen their first snowfall for decades.

As when the earth cools the temperature gradient increases between the poles and the equator. This will make the jet stream increase its speed from west to east. Britain’s autumn and winters will become milder, maritime in the short term. When the temperature gradient continue to increase between the poles and the equator the jet-stream becomes unstable and more likely to break up in to anticyclone blocking and cyclones. The anticyclone blocking will develop from Siberia to Iceland bringing in months of polar continental air to the UK in winter

You remind me of 'Daniel'

The CO2 is to weak of a greenhouse gas to stop natural cooling. As when the oceans cools it will absorb all of the manmade CO2 and a large amount of natural CO2

Ice cores show temperature go up first then CO2 follows

The evidence supporting the manmade global warming hypothesis is getting less and less. There is a large amount of jobs and government tax dependent on the manmade global warming hypothesis so there will be allot of political spin in the data.

When people say this kind of thing I like, since I live nearby, to offer to accompany them to the Met Office in Exeter and point them to when they can go and make such accusations in person. I'm sure the people you accuse wont mind such things being said of them...

Anyway, if you do go PM me will you, I'd 'like' to be there

Edited June 25, 2008 by Devonian

[Filski]

Snow in Sydney?

When?

Also please explain the current run of top ten months we are having for warming lately. March was the warmest land temp on record. If this is cool pass me my hat.

[sub-polar men]

Snow in Sydney?

When?

Also please explain the current run of top ten months we are having for warming lately. March was the warmest land temp on record. If this is cool pass me my hat.

southern hemisphere winter 2007

[stewfox]

Solar cycle 23 is going to be about 13 years long. The longest since 1790. it's been known by solar scientist that the longer the solar cycle the weaker in amplitude of the next 2 solar cycles. Solar cycle 24 is going to be very weak. Solar Cycle 24 and 25 should take us up to 2030. The weak amplitude of solar cycles 24 and 25 will likely cool the globe for 30 years. The earth as already cooled over the past 2 years and is likely to accelerate over the coming years. China as already seen their coldest winter for 100 years. Sydney has seen their first snowfall for decades.

As when the earth cools the temperature gradient increases between the poles and the equator. This will make the jet stream increase its speed from west to east. Britain's autumn and winters will become milder, maritime in the short term. When the temperature gradient continue to increase between the poles and the equator the jet-stream becomes unstable and more likely to break up in to anticyclone blocking and cyclones. The anticyclone blocking will develop from Siberia to Iceland bringing in months of polar continental air to the UK in winter

The CO2 is to weak of a greenhouse gas to stop natural cooling. As when the oceans cools it will absorb all of the manmade CO2 and a large amount of natural CO2

Ice cores show temperature go up first then CO2 follows

The evidence supporting the manmade global warming hypothesis is getting less and less. There is a large amount of jobs and government tax dependent on the manmade global warming hypothesis so there will be allot of political spin in the data.

In 6 months we have gone from Global Warming to climate change to Global cooling

Does this mean we will get a white christmas again ?

[johnholmes]

Anyway, if you do go PM me will you, I'd 'like' to be there

love those replies

[Mr Sleet]

Snow in Sydney?

When?

Also please explain the current run of top ten months we are having for warming lately. March was the warmest land temp on record. If this is cool pass me my hat.

It's true, Bondi beach is under that lot somewhere !!

[sub-polar men]

In 6 months we have gone from Global Warming to climate change to Global cooling

Does this mean we will get a white christmas again ?

Not for the short term for the UK. A cooling world means increase North-south temperature gradient. This will increase the westerly flow. This will make Decembers in the UK windier, milder and maritime in the short term. But as when North-south temperature gradient increase, the westerly flow will continue to increase. The stronger the westerly flow the more unstable it becomes and likely to suddenly brake up in big anticyclone blocking.

[Richie V]

I wish I could definately say were cooling. Having said that, this summer is turning out to be only slightly above normal and other than april 2007 summer last year was normal at best in yorkshire.

Also last year did anyone notice the leaves turning yellow early. Horse chestnut leaves started yellowing in the first week of september, I found that totaly amazing! reduced solar energy prehaps!???? does anyone know????? any links on this?

Edited June 25, 2008 by Chassisbot

[Roger J Smith]

Without commenting on the predictions now to 2030, I have discussed the general trends of solar activity over the long term in a post in the solar activity sub-forum entitled "Solar activity from Rome to the Maunder" (and it should read perhaps "to the present" but my intention was to add some of the accepted historical solar activity findings from the centuries before the Maunder minimum.

It is generally correct to assume that longer cycles are weaker cycles, and that they often come in clusters of two or three before a more normal high activity faster set of cycles resumes.

The minimum referred to above is the Dalton minimum that followed the large and unusually long-extinguishing 1787 peak, it was only after 1794 that this peak really faded away then two rather modest peaks developed after that in the periods 1801-04 and 1815-16. In the quieter years around this time could be found periods of four to six years without much activity, unusually long quiet Sun intervals. But the Dalton minimum was somewhat ambiguous compared to the Maunder as a potential "producer" of colder weather. The interval may have been fairly cold in general in both Europe and North America but it had already been quite cold during the last few high-activity solar cycles that peaked in 1761, 1769, 1778 and 1787. Weather history buffs here will be able to see that the end of the 1787 cycle was no particular onset for cold weather but just a time for it to continue. Nor was there an instant rebound to milder weather when the Dalton minimum ended through the 1830s. We must also remember that the large volcanic dust veil of Tambora (1815 to about 1819) had a widespread cooling effect within that period.

Another (and the only other) recent interval with reduced activity came after the 1870 peak and lasted from the end of that (perhaps 1874) to about 1914 before the 20th century run of faster high-activity solar peaks began. In that period, there were fairly modest peaks around 1883-85, 1893-94 and 1905-08. Once again the cycles were on the average slower than before or after this interval. And once again, a major dust veil helped to obscure the possible temperature correlations, but I've noted that a natural warming spread across North America after 1888, so this has always dampened by belief that these moderate solar activity decreases have much correlation with temperatures. So too would the downward temperature shifts around 1940 and 1979 which both occurred during high-activity periods.

The only really compelling solar-climate link has been the Maunder minimum, leading me to speculate that perhaps large-scale solar activity changes can overcome a host of other factors to become the principal driver of temperature signals, but possibly anything less dramatic than the Maunder with its 60-year near-shutdown of solar activity proves too weak and inconclusive. I don't think the scientists studying the Sun and predicting this forthcoming decrease are talking about anything like the Maunder, more like the Dalton minimum, so perhaps we'll see yet another major volcanic event in this solar minimum to assist with the proposed task of cooling. At least it will be interesting to follow what actually happens both in solar activity and weather events, how to correlate these beyond any doubt remains an elusive concept.

[Filski]

southern hemisphere winter 2007

No it didn't. You're telling pork pies.

Note I'm an aussie, from Sydney.

[Stu_London]

No it didn't. You're telling pork pies.

Note I'm an aussie, from Sydney.

Perhaps he meant Melbourne as there was snow there for the first time in a long while, I believe, although it may have been Winter 2006, from memory.

Back on topic - whilst it would be folly to dismiss solar cycles and their climatic effect, until more evidence emerges the best we could hope for is that a cycle may help to moderate AGW as foreseen by the IPCC.

[sub-polar men]

Without commenting on the predictions now to 2030, I have discussed the general trends of solar activity over the long term in a post in the solar activity sub-forum entitled "Solar activity from Rome to the Maunder" (and it should read perhaps "to the present" but my intention was to add some of the accepted historical solar activity findings from the centuries before the Maunder minimum.

It is generally correct to assume that longer cycles are weaker cycles, and that they often come in clusters of two or three before a more normal high activity faster set of cycles resumes.

The minimum referred to above is the Dalton minimum that followed the large and unusually long-extinguishing 1787 peak, it was only after 1794 that this peak really faded away then two rather modest peaks developed after that in the periods 1801-04 and 1815-16. In the quieter years around this time could be found periods of four to six years without much activity, unusually long quiet Sun intervals. But the Dalton minimum was somewhat ambiguous compared to the Maunder as a potential "producer" of colder weather. The interval may have been fairly cold in general in both Europe and North America but it had already been quite cold during the last few high-activity solar cycles that peaked in 1761, 1769, 1778 and 1787. Weather history buffs here will be able to see that the end of the 1787 cycle was no particular onset for cold weather but just a time for it to continue. Nor was there an instant rebound to milder weather when the Dalton minimum ended through the 1830s. We must also remember that the large volcanic dust veil of Tambora (1815 to about 1819) had a widespread cooling effect within that period.

Another (and the only other) recent interval with reduced activity came after the 1870 peak and lasted from the end of that (perhaps 1874) to about 1914 before the 20th century run of faster high-activity solar peaks began. In that period, there were fairly modest peaks around 1883-85, 1893-94 and 1905-08. Once again the cycles were on the average slower than before or after this interval. And once again, a major dust veil helped to obscure the possible temperature correlations, but I've noted that a natural warming spread across North America after 1888, so this has always dampened by belief that these moderate solar activity decreases have much correlation with temperatures. So too would the downward temperature shifts around 1940 and 1979 which both occurred during high-activity periods.

The only really compelling solar-climate link has been the Maunder minimum, leading me to speculate that perhaps large-scale solar activity changes can overcome a host of other factors to become the principal driver of temperature signals, but possibly anything less dramatic than the Maunder with its 60-year near-shutdown of solar activity proves too weak and inconclusive. I don't think the scientists studying the Sun and predicting this forthcoming decrease are talking about anything like the Maunder, more like the Dalton minimum, so perhaps we'll see yet another major volcanic event in this solar minimum to assist with the proposed task of cooling. At least it will be interesting to follow what actually happens both in solar activity and weather events, how to correlate these beyond any doubt remains an elusive concept.

The maunder minimum was a 400-to-500 year minimum. Coupled with a 800 to 1000 year minimum. 1930s was the time of the 800 to 1000 year maximum . The dalta Minimum is a 200 year minimum. There was warming and cooling between the dalta and the maunder minimums.

You can check this out on a graph from this link: http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf

The next maunder type minimum will be round about the year 2200.

Edited June 25, 2008 by sub-polar men

[summer blizzard]

The maunder minimum was a 400-to-500 year minimum. Coupled with a 800 to 1000 year minimum. 1930s was the time of the 800 to 1000 year maximum . The dalta Minimum is a 200 year minimum. There was warming and cooling between the dalta and the maunder minimums.

You can check this out on a graph from this link: http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf

The next maunder type minimum will be round about the year 2200.

The Maunder minum lasted around 50 years, not 500, and the Dalton minimum lasted around 25 years, the Maunder minimum was more severe because it had a double trough, as the coming Gleissburg minimum is anticipated to.

[Gray-Wolf]

Why ,as opposed to 'the warmers' ,do the 'freezers' always sound so smug that the great global dying is to be facilitated through ice when the warmers do nothing but suggest ways for humanity to mitigate the worst of what they percieve is happening?

Come on you 'chilly willies' give us your 'way out' for the 1/3 of the population set to die on the onset of such cold and the 50% reduction of the remaining global population as the sheets begin to grow? Maybe releasing lots of CO2?

Edited June 25, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[sundog]

Not for the short term for the UK. A cooling world means increase North-south temperature gradient. This will increase the westerly flow. This will make Decembers in the UK windier, milder and maritime in the short term. But as when North-south temperature gradient increase, the westerly flow will continue to increase. The stronger the westerly flow the more unstable it becomes and likely to suddenly brake up in big anticyclone blocking.

Is that what happened during the little ice age for example? I read before that the jet stream was stronger then it is today during the little ice ice due to a colder arctic.

[sub-polar men]

The Maunder minum lasted around 50 years, not 500, and the Dalton minimum lasted around 25 years, the Maunder minimum was more severe because it had a double trough, as the coming Gleissburg minimum is anticipated to.

I am talking about the cycle spectrum between the maximum and minimum. On the 400 to 500 year cycle it takes 400 to 500 years to go from minimum to minimum.