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30 YEARS OF GLOBAL COOLING HAS ALREADY STARTED


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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
Well most of the past 12 years have been very warm so it really isn't too hard to be cooler than them. Interesting stats though, shows that despite a warming climate there are the odd declines in temperature.

Globally temperatures have been pretty much flat for 10 years - so it's a warm global climate, but not warming - at least not for the last decade.

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire
Yeah, we've come across Mr Casey, before. Not a reliable source, unfortunately, and an expert at media manipulation and the art of the written word.

Oh boy,just wait 'til Roo gets wind of this! I didn't hear the last of it for weeks when I brought Casey to our attention. Roo was right,but how Gore can get away with his blatant brand of nonsense for so long is one of our times' most profound mysteries. Won't be long now until he's rumbled,and whilst Casey may be a conman of the same ilk,at least he's more likely to be right in what he says,regardless of his personal motives.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Has anyone else seen this? Roger, if you're out there, I'd appreciate your thoughts.

http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2008/7/prweb1081014.htm

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

interesting, I'd be very interested to read a comment from any of the National centres, Met UK or NASA/NOAA or indeed ECMWF.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
interesting, I'd be very interested to read a comment from any of the National centres, Met UK or NASA/NOAA or indeed ECMWF.

You're the man with contacts in the METO :) I'd be interested too.

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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon

well thats an interesting slant on the climate,will be watching with interest

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Only time will tell I guess.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
You're the man with contacts in the METO :) I'd be interested too.

unfortunately the best link is on a 6 month detachment with NOAA and his forwarding e mail address is not responding.

I'll try a couple of others to see if they have any idea.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
unfortunately the best link is on a 6 month detachment with NOAA and his forwarding e mail address is not responding.

I'll try a couple of others to see if they have any idea.

Thanks John, you're a star.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

best wait and see IF I get any response before we award any stars J?

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
best wait and see IF I get any response before we award any stars J?

You get a star for trying ma dear, choccies if you get a result.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Unfortunately, the killer phrase is ...

This natural feedback allows carbon dioxide which is being stored and trapped in high latitude vegetation, soils, tundra and colder oceans for up to several hundred thousand years, to be released naturally back into the atmosphere during global warming events.

Don't we know, from isotope analysis, that the increase in CO2 is down to the burning of fossil fuels? This theory may well be true and good, but it can't account for the excess C14 (or whatever) floating around that we put there.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashford, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Ashford, Kent

Well, I just hope that when I'm driving around in my electric car in 2023, that it's got traction control :)

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I see the press are reporting an Argentinian ice dam collapse.....never happened in mid winter before.....the glacier it comes from, one of the largest in Argentina, is also still melting in the depths of their winter........that also has never happened before. Who do they blame? AGW of course :)

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
Has anyone else seen this? Roger, if you're out there, I'd appreciate your thoughts.

http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2008/7/prweb1081014.htm

My opinion is that it's so awful a piece of work it's almost embarrassing.

Lets go through it:

"New research findings released in the peer reviewed book" - there is no evidence at all this book has been peer reviewed in the sense I or anyone who knows what peer review is understand. But, as ever I'm happy to see any evidence I'm wrong.

"All of the gravitational cycles coincide nearly 100 percent with 2200 global warming events during the past half million years." Humm, can anyone name me anything the coincides nearly 100% in the natural world with something else? More to the point, if the coincidence is so solid how come everyone has missed it bar Mr Dilley? It the author the Einstein of his time or, dare I suggest, rather over playing his hand a tad? How does he define 'coincide' for example?

"Research by Mr. Dilley shows a near 100 percent correlation between the PFM [his theory of climate everything] gravitational cycles to the beginning and ending of global warming cycles." Humm, so now it's correlates not coincide? Again, I very much doubt anything in climate correlates 100% with anything else and that if it did we'd have noticed long ago.

"The release of the book "Global Warming- Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found" culminates 19 years of research clearly linking gravitational cycles as the cause for fluctuations within the earth's climate. The book is available as an electronic e-Book on the website" Humm, so you have to buy his book to find out what he says :) That's (not) open science now is it? Imo certain people can be parted from their money - I'm not one them. When this chap publishes his work in a peer reviewed journal for all to see then I'll take him seriously, until then I sense the whiff of snake oil...

Edited by Devonian
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

yes I'm almost afraid to open my e mail box for the reply I may get from Met!

It struck me as odd to suggest almost 100%, mind you it was a good read you have to admit D, provided one had rose coloured specs on.

In meteorology/climatology to get 70% correlation beyond normal forecasting is pretty good, so near 100% does seem a bit too good to be true.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
My opinion is that it's so awful a piece of work it's almost embarrassing.

Lets go through it:

"New research findings released in the peer reviewed book" - there is no evidence at all this book has been peer reviewed in the sense I or anyone who knows what peer review is understand. But, as ever I'm happy to see any evidence I'm wrong.

"All of the gravitational cycles coincide nearly 100 percent with 2200 global warming events during the past half million years." Humm, can anyone name me anything the coincides nearly 100% in the natural world with something else? More to the point, if the coincidence is so solid how come everyone has missed it bar Mr Dilley? It the author the Einstein of his time or, dare I suggest, rather over playing his hand a tad? How does he define 'coincide' for example?

"Research by Mr. Dilley shows a near 100 percent correlation between the PFM [his theory of climate everything] gravitational cycles to the beginning and ending of global warming cycles." Humm, so now it's correlates not coincide? Again, I very much doubt anything in climate correlates 100% with anything else and that if it did we'd have noticed long ago.

"The release of the book "Global Warming- Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found" culminates 19 years of research clearly linking gravitational cycles as the cause for fluctuations within the earth's climate. The book is available as an electronic e-Book on the website" Humm, so you have to buy his book to find out what he says :doh: That's (not) open science now is it? Imo certain people can be parted from their money - I'm not one them. When this chap publishes his work in a peer reviewed journal for all to see then I'll take him seriously, until then I sense the whiff of snake oil...

Personally, I haven't formed any opinion of this; don't know anywhere near enough to make an informed decision either way, it's all new to me.

I think you're being a tad harsh about having to buy his book, condemning it as "not open science" and therefore a rip off. There are many, many peer reviewed papers which publish an abstract for public consumption but in order to read the whole paper, you have to buy it or pay a considerable subscription charge to access full information - both these options cost considerably more than buying the book. Can't see the difference myself.

It's not as outlandish as it seems, there's quite a lot of peer reviewed stuff which confirms the Earth's magnetic field impacts upon weather and climate - perhaps this is similar??

Anyway, for anyone who wishes to hear more or ask Dilley questions, there's a thread running on Accuweather where you can talk directly to him:

http://global-warming.accuweather.com/2007...cillations.html

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

last para is not a bad idea, anyone asked him anything on our forum?

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Posted
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey

Out of interest, are lunar gravitational effects taken into consideration when formulation global warming projections? I don't recall having seen any reference to them. I found this quote on www.greenfacts.org in their "IPCC Glossary for Climate Change":

Geoid

The surface which an ocean of uniform density would assume if it were in steady state and at rest (i.e. no ocean circulation and no applied forces other than the gravity of the Earth). This implies that the geoid will be a surface of constant gravitational potential, which can serve as a reference surface to which all surfaces (e.g., the Mean Sea Surface) can be referred. The geoid (and surfaces parallel to the geoid) are what we refer to in common experience as "level surfaces".

Is this term - the assumption of no external gravitational influence, especially on the oceans - still used in projections?

It does not seem beyond the realms of credibility that the moon's gravity has some part to play in climate, since it spends its whole time pulling at the land, oceans and atmosphere.

Having said that, I admit to being skeptical of Dilley's book, not least because I haven't read it. As others have said, the claim of near-100% correlation seems to be a little too good to be true, since other factors beyond gravitational influence are always going to have some kind of effect (unless the near-100% correlation is with what's left over after all other natural factors have been removed, but he should have been more explicit if this is what he meant).

I think we all need to know more before passing judgement.

:doh:

CB

Edited by Captain_Bobski
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
last para is not a bad idea, anyone asked him anything on our forum?

I've just e-mailed Mr. Dilley via his site, inviting him to join us here. Wait and see I guess.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Geoid

The surface which an ocean of uniform density would assume if it were in steady state and at rest (i.e. no ocean circulation and no applied forces other than the gravity of the Earth). This implies that the geoid will be a surface of constant gravitational potential, which can serve as a reference surface to which all surfaces (e.g., the Mean Sea Surface) can be referred. The geoid (and surfaces parallel to the geoid) are what we refer to in common experience as "level surfaces".

Funny you should mention that, CB. Do you believe in coincidences?

I have just been looking at network routing for various applications (which, of course, shall remain a secret!) and one of the key parameters is how the hell do you reference a point on the globe when the surface area of Lat/Long changes depending on where you are. ie how do you get a uniform grid?

Loads of different ways of doing it, and I'm trying to beast my way through them now.

I wonder what method climate models use?

Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
I've just e-mailed Mr. Dilley via his site, inviting him to join us here. Wait and see I guess.

This is Mr. Dilley. Thank you for inviting me to your forum.

I will briefly answer 2 questions posted here.

First....The e-Book was peer reviewed by 4 professional meteorologists, re-written many times to include their input. Tried to publish the e-Book much like a scientific journal would do. One reviewer is a past reviewer for the Journal of Climate.

Second....All the information backing up my claims are in the e-Book, and yes the correlations are near 100 percent, this is what makes it the "Primary Forcing Mechanism for Climate" PFM

The PFM drives many climate features, including tracks of hurricanes, historical weather events, and the El Nino.

I will try to answer as many questions as I can, speculative questions need to be addressed with other forum members that have read the book.

Yes the book is forsale. I did not receive any outside funding for my research, so it is totally unbiased. Absolutely no funding from energy groups, envrionmental groups or government funding.

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

Good day Mr. Dilley and may I welcome you to the NetWeather Forum!

May I thank you from all of us for taking time to visit us here!

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Posted
  • Location: Thame, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Thame, Oxfordshire
This is Mr. Dilley. Thank you for inviting me to your forum.

I will briefly answer 2 questions posted here.

First....The e-Book was peer reviewed by 4 professional meteorologists, re-written many times to include their input. Tried to publish the e-Book much like a scientific journal would do. One reviewer is a past reviewer for the Journal of Climate.

Second....All the information backing up my claims are in the e-Book, and yes the correlations are near 100 percent, this is what makes it the "Primary Forcing Mechanism for Climate" PFM

The PFM drives many climate features, including tracks of hurricanes, historical weather events, and the El Nino.

I will try to answer as many questions as I can, speculative questions need to be addressed with other forum members that have read the book.

Yes the book is forsale. I did not receive any outside funding for my research, so it is totally unbiased. Absolutely no funding from energy groups, envrionmental groups or government funding.

Hi David, thanks for visiting.

I come from a position of scepticism that CO2 is the main driver of climate. As you suggest, global warming causes release of C02 due to factors such as lower solubility in oceans etc. so it's difficult to know which is driving which in todays situation. I think measurements show that the majority of the increase in CO2 at the moment is industrial in origin due to the higher C14 isotope level. (I see you have a chapter on natural and industrial CO2 in your book.) Do you think that this isotope question is a problem for your theory ?

thanks

Mark

Edited by Mr Sleet
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