Hurricane Boris

[summer blizzard]

Boris should be dead soon, but then it should of been a few days ago, and the sattelite image does indicate moisture influx from the south west.

000

WTPZ42 KNHC 020830

TCDEP2

HURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008

200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THE EYE OF BORIS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED

IN SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT BORIS LOOKS

EVEN STRONGER WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY...

THE INTENSITY WILL ONLY BE BUMPED BACK UP TO 65 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY. THIS ESTIMATE IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE GIVEN THAT THE

CYCLONE IS PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MAY NOT BE EFFECTIVELY

MIXING ITS STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

BORIS IS CONTINUING A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT

ABOUT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS

AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN THEREAFTER...FORCING THE

SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE

STORM WILL ALSO LIKELY BE MUCH WEAKER IN A FEW DAYS...MEANING THE

SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED MORE BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGING.

COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE...AND JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

THE MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF BORIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT A RELATIVELY

FAST DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE IT IS NO LONGER

PARALLELING THE STRONG SST GRADIENT OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC

AND INSTEAD MOVING INTO THE COLDER WATER QUICKLY. ALL INTENSITY

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM SHOULD DIMINISH IN STRENGTH

RELATIVELY RAPIDLY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS. IF

BORIS DOES NOT TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST...WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE

COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 15.9N 126.5W 65 KT

12HR VT 02/1800Z 16.4N 127.4W 60 KT

24HR VT 03/0600Z 16.9N 128.6W 50 KT

36HR VT 03/1800Z 17.1N 129.7W 45 KT

48HR VT 04/0600Z 17.1N 130.8W 40 KT

72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.7N 133.1W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 06/0600Z 16.0N 136.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 07/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[Cookie]

"hurricane" (the North Atlantic Ocean, the Northeast Pacific Ocean east of the dateline, or the South Pacific Ocean east of 160E)

"typhoon" (the Northwest Pacific Ocean west of the dateline)

"severe tropical cyclone" (the Southwest Pacific Ocean west of 160E or Southeast Indian Ocean east of 90E)

"severe cyclonic storm" (the North Indian Ocean)

"tropical cyclone" (the Southwest Indian Ocean)

Hope it helps, just a cut and paste from NOAA

thanks mate

[Somerset Squall]

After weakening to a tropical storm, Boris has again attained hurricane status. A ring of convection surrounds a rugged eye in least satellite imagery, and pressure has fallen to 988mb. I'm not sure but it may be annular characteristics that are helping Boris resist weakening, as the hurricane is now traversing cooler waters. A more poleward component of the track will ensure Boris will move over even cooler waters which should enforce weakening.

[Cookie]

how may times has boris now gained hurricane statues is it 3?

[Lynxus]

Am i being stupid, but classing it as a hurricane with max winds of 75 and gusts on 90 ?

We get more that that up north with our apparently small low pressures?

if this is the case then we must get about 20 hurricanes a year?

[Somerset Squall]

Hurricane threshold is 65 knots (75mph) and this is sustained winds. We don't see that in this country, definitely only rarely anyway. We see gusts in that range but not sustained winds. We don't get hurricanes, just intense extratropical low pressure systems.

[Lynxus]

Hurricane threshold is 65 knots (75mph) and this is sustained winds. We don't see that in this country, definitely only rarely anyway. We see gusts in that range but not sustained winds. We don't get hurricanes, just intense extratropical low pressure systems.

Yeah, thought as much. Just thought id have a little rant lol

[Somerset Squall]

how may times has boris now gained hurricane statues is it 3?

This is the second time it's become a hurricane. Pretty good animation from unisys here:

Yeah, thought as much. Just thought id have a little rant lol

It is only a very weak hurricane to be honest though.

[Somerset Squall]

Boris is now finally weakening. The LLC remains very well defined but convection has rapidly dissipated, and NHC have now reduced the intensity to 50kts. Boris is forecasted to continue weakening as the waters remain cool under the storm. Boris is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 48hrs, but if deep convection doesn't make a comeback it may cease to be a tropical cyclone before this.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate

[Somerset Squall]

Boris has continued to weaken today over cooler waters and in an envronment of moderate to high shear and stable air. Needless to say, these very unfavourable conditions will continue to weaken Boris as it drifts generally westwards. The LLC is becoming increasingly ill defined and very little deep convection remains associated with the centre. Boris may degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours.

Still, it has been an interesting little system and it was touch and go for a while whether Boris would become a hurricane but it did in the end, twice. Hopefully the East Pacific this year will be more active than last year, certainly been a promising start.

[Cookie]

thanks again mate for the great updates