Tropical Storm Cristina

[Somerset Squall]

The invest to the west of Boris has become better organised this afternoon, and has become Tropical Depression 03E. Modest strengthening is anticipated but this system isn't expected to become as strong as Boris due to unfavourable upper level conditions setting in beyond 24 hours. The system will head generally westward until the degeneration into a remnant low, which is forecasted by the NHC to occur by 96hrs.

03E:

[Cookie]

that thing appears to be in the middle of no where!

[kold weather]

Yep its also really unsymeteric right now as well with most of the convection on the more moist side of the circulation with the west a little bare.

The key thing to note is the cloud bank off to the NW which suggests to me there is a lot of stable air there with that type of cloud cover and that probably marks the more unfavorable conditions. At the moment its only injesting small amounts of that less condusive air into the western porition of the circulation but there is enough instablity and moisture being dragge din from the eastern side to counteract that and keep the system going. Once it gets too heavily involved into the circulation and the shear and cooler waters starts to also play effect then thats when we will see weakening. Till then we could well see some slow strengthening occuring, likely becoming a TS this morning.

[Cookie]

thanks kold as always

[Somerset Squall]

We now have a third tropical storm as TD03E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cristina, currently at 35kts. Convection has been wrapping into the western quadrant of the LLC and satellite intensity estimates support the upgrade. Further strengthening is not expected on Cristina's westwards track however, as the storm will encounter stable air and cooler waters later in the forecast period.

[Somerset Squall]

New image:

[Cookie]

lovely image!

[Somerset Squall]

lovely image!

Indeed!

Cristina has strengthened a little over the last 6 hours, and is now at 40kts. Unfavourable conditions await to the west of Cristina though- dry, stable air and cooler waters. In fact, the image above shows the stable clouds already entraining into the west of Cristina's circulation.

[Somerset Squall]

Cristina peaked at 45kts last night, but is now on a significant weakening trend. Most of the deep convection assocoated with Cristina has vanished as dry, stable air surrounds the circulation centre. The NHC forecast degeneration into a remnant low tomorrow, but if convection doesn't make a comeback then this may occur today.

[Cookie]

what a differnce

[Somerset Squall]

Cristina has weakened to 35kts today, but has been putting up a pretty good fight against that stable air and condsidering it is now moving over cooler waters. Cristina looked like she had had it at one point this afternoon but deep convection keeps flaring back up over the centre, keeping the system at minimal storm status. Cristina is now a very small system, and cyclones like these tend to be very sensitive to the environment, so naturally the NHC are calling for degeneration to a remnant low by 36hrs. But who knows how long Cristina can fight for? You only need to think back to last year when TD Cosme lasted so long in hostile conditions by timely flare ups of deep convection.

[Somerset Squall]

Cristina is rapidly dissipating. Intensity has been reduced to 25kts, and convection has all but dissapeared from the LLC. Stable air, cool water and strong shear have reduced Cristina to a naked swirl of clouds. Regeneration is not expected.

[Cookie]

I will always rember this storm for that hurricane image thats in you're averter

[Somerset Squall]

I know, what a beauty!! And it was only a 45kt tropical storm. Sometimes it's not just the monster storms that look the most impressive.

[Cookie]

yup I agree