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Winter NAO fx


Guest Shetland Coastie

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Guest Shetland Coastie

Anyone know when this is out? Its usually about now sometime I think using SST's from May.

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Guest Shetland Coastie

Not really mate but thanks anyway. Im now given to understand this fx is due out mid July.

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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

A reliable source over at TWO has suggested the Met are going to forecast a negative NAO this winter. In other words, an increased chance of a colder than average winter.

Not long to wait now, anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Apparently the Met Office will be publishing their NAO findings for winter 08/09 on Thursday at 10am. :)

Thanks Gav. I remember that your thoughts back in May/June were like mine that a negative forecast seemed likely at the early stage. I read interesting early thoughts too from Joe B that the CFS was showing signs of a cool and wet autumn for Western Europe.....so if NAO turns negative for winter.......licks lips. :(

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Thanks Gav. I remember that your thoughts back in May/June were like mine that a negative forecast seemed likely at the early stage. I read interesting early thoughts too from Joe B that the CFS was showing signs of a cool and wet autumn for Western Europe.....so if NAO turns negative for winter.......licks lips. :o

BFTP

Oh dear Joe B the man who's nearly always wrong. One warm dry Autumn coming up.

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

I'm moving down to Glasgow from the Highlands of Scotland this September, and if this winter is a really good one and I'm not there I will be immensely disappointed :/

However, looking forward to the Met's predictions.

(Looking at previous data from the last few years the sea of Japan seems to have been recording some impressively large negative differences in sea temperatures - does anyway known if the northern Japanese islands and the city of Sopporo in particular has been experiencing some severe winters as of late? I know that in 2006, thirteen children losts their lives by being crushed by falling snow off a school roof).

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Crikey, winter already? Couldn't wait to see the back of the last one...

I hope the Met Office call a below average one this year, at least it will give us some hope then. And not below average by recent standards (i.e. mild instead of exceptionally mild) - we are long overdue a cracker.

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

They will just play it into touch as always with their early predictions. Basically they will manage to predict everything in practically the one sentence. Expect the words 'probability' 'cold', 'mild', 'average', 'wet', 'dry', and 'possibly'.

Edited by Darkman
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

no comment that is printable with the predictable comment from above!!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
A reliable source over at TWO has suggested the Met are going to forecast a negative NAO this winter. In other words, an increased chance of a colder than average winter.

Not long to wait now, anyway.

Sounds interesting. We'll soon see.

:rolleyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
no comment that is printable with the predictable comment from above!!

How can you defend this farce? What I said is absolutely true and I will take great pleasure quoting and disecting it for you. Its the same every single year.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

each to their own mate

just what you expect 5 months before the start I fail to understand

usually the overall idea of temperature levels is quite close to the charts published at the end of the winter as are the ppn charts

easy to complain but very hard to be constructive as you seem to be proving

an lrf can never tell you in great detail what the temperature may be for any particular location or the same about ppn

but as I said at the beginning each to their own, I myself enjoy the challenge of attempting my own little bit of lrf work for 3 weeks ahead let alone 6 months away

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
How can you defend this farce? What I said is absolutely true and I will take great pleasure quoting and disecting it for you. Its the same every single year.

I think that's a bit harsh. This is an evolving science and as the forecast is for six months ahead, it is always going to be indicative in nature.

Although I understand this method of predicting the NAO has an accuracy rate of about 66%, the Met have to take into account other factors which may affect the forecast nearer the time e.g. the ENSO state. It's also worth remembering that a negative NOA doesn't always correlate with cold weather synoptics, therefore I think it is unfair to expect the Met (or anyone else) to accurately scope the following winter.

I would far prefer to read an impartial Met forecast than headline grabbing lrf's i.e. "coldest winter for 100 years", which have been produced by certain other web sites!

Edited by Jack Wales
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

I applaud the Met Office for sticking their necks out at the risk of being shot down!

I remember when they forecast the 2005/06 winter to be colder than normal and the media blew it all out of proportion. They can't win really.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
They will just play it into touch as always with their early predictions. Basically they will manage to predict everything in practically the one sentence. Expect the words 'probability' 'cold', 'mild', 'average', 'wet', 'dry', and 'possibly'.

Very funny and very true Darkman.

I realise LRF shouldn't contain too much detail but the Met O forecasts do tend to be somewhat vague and cover all outcomes. Im not sure how John can defend the Met O because look at this sentence from the Met O updated summer forecast for their predictions of rainfall "Our forecasting methods favour above-average or near-average rainfall for the remainder of the summer period".

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/season...2008/index.html

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I give up with you TEITS and Darkman

I have tried until I am blue in the face attempting to explain, from a professional viewpoint, what is and what is not possible in any lrf.

The forecast you quote TEITS, to be correct, the rainfall has to be near or above average, NOT below, thus the Environment Agency, for one, will have taken this into account when doing their long term planning. Based on that they will know they should not have to allocate funds for tanking water long distances to areas that would be affected by drought. They are aware that some contingency funding may be needed to cover for possible flooding problems although, as it specifically excluded the possibility of a 2007 situation, not to that extent.

I could go on with a list of other major organisations for whom this type of forecast is exactly what is needed which is precisely why this type of forecast is produced, but it would, I suspect be a waste of time with either of you.

Ask any senior executive in our major retail groups if they say they are a waste of time in trying to plan long term what to have on the shelves. Just looking at the Met O Annual Report on how much is paid by companies like M&S, Asda, etc, should give you an answer.

So defence of a sensible useful and economically productive service is very easy.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
I give up with you TEITS and Darkman

I have tried until I am blue in the face attempting to explain, from a professional viewpoint, what is and what is not possible in any lrf.

The forecast you quote TEITS, to be correct, the rainfall has to be near or above average, NOT below, thus the Environment Agency, for one, will have taken this into account when doing their long term planning. Based on that they will know they should not have to allocate funds for tanking water long distances to areas that would be affected by drought. They are aware that some contingency funding may be needed to cover for possible flooding problems although, as it specifically excluded the possibility of a 2007 situation, not to that extent.

I could go on with a list of other major organisations for whom this type of forecast is exactly what is needed which is precisely why this type of forecast is produced, but it would, I suspect be a waste of time with either of you.

Ask any senior executive in our major retail groups if they say they are a waste of time in trying to plan long term what to have on the shelves. Just looking at the Met O Annual Report on how much is paid by companies like M&S, Asda, etc, should give you an answer.

So defence of a sensible useful and economically productive service is very easy.

The whole point of a forecast is to predict what is likely to happen. Now the Met O forecast of near or above average rainfall is very vague indeed because it isn't making a prediction either way. Im not expecting the Met O to predict amounts but they should at least say whether its going to be above or near and not both.

As an example im going to make a forecast for next summer.

Temps are likely to be near or above average, rainfall likely to be near or above average.

Now based on my forecast im likely to be correct whatever happens and also my forecast is very unhelpful because it isn't predicting either way.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

like I said talk to the leaders of industry as to why they pay large amounts of money for forecasts of the type you disagree with.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
like I said talk to the leaders of industry as to why they pay large amounts of money for forecasts of the type you disagree with.

Companies such as supermarkets i.e Asda, Sainsburys would use the Met O monthly forecasts rather than seasonal for predicting what to put on their shelves because for starters these are more reliable.

Let me ask you this John. Suppose your are the owner of an outdoor swimming pool who relies on dry settled weather to bring the punters in. Now after reading the Met O seasonal forecast you have to make a decision on how many staff to employ during the summer months i.e lifeguards etc. Can you honestly tell me after reading the Met O forecast of rainfall predictions you would know how many staff to employ and how much money your business is likely to bring in!

I tell you what if leaders of industry are paying vast amounts of money maybe I should start my own business because it would only take 2mins to write an entire seasonal forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
I tell you what if leaders of industry are paying vast amounts of money maybe I should start my own business because it would only take 2mins to write an entire seasonal forecast.

Well, they would be asking for a refund as according to your predictions we were supposed to be in a 100f heatwave right now!!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

If I used common sense then the forecast tells me that long dry periods are not expected,so that would suggest that no I would not employ more life guards based on that forecast. It also suggests that temps will be aaround or above the average BUT there will be more frequent cloudy and cool spells than average.

QED

I cannot see what you seem to find difficult to understand on how large utilities/companies etc do use the lrf as well as the monthly outlook or indeed the 6-15 day forecast.

Maybe we are from different planets TEITS?!

quoting the whole, not just part of, the forecast for the UK says this

UK forecast for remainder of Summer 2008

Temperature

We continue to predict an enhanced chance of more frequent cloudy and cool spells compared to recent summers prior to 2007. Nevertheless, mean temperatures are more likely to be above the 1971-2000 average.

Rainfall

Our forecasting methods favour above-average or near-average rainfall for the remainder of the summer period.

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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
If I used common sense then the forecast tells me that long dry periods are not expected,so that would suggest that no I would not employ more life guards based on that forecast. It also suggests that temps will be aaround or above the average BUT there will be more frequent cloudy and cool spells than average.

QED

I cannot see what you seem to find difficult to understand on how large utilities/companies etc do use the lrf as well as the monthly outlook or indeed the 6-15 day forecast.

Maybe we are from different planets TEITS?!

quoting the whole, not just part of, the forecast for the UK says this

UK forecast for remainder of Summer 2008

Temperature

We continue to predict an enhanced chance of more frequent cloudy and cool spells compared to recent summers prior to 2007. Nevertheless, mean temperatures are more likely to be above the 1971-2000 average.

Rainfall

Our forecasting methods favour above-average or near-average rainfall for the remainder of the summer period.

I'm actually with you here John, all that can be done with LRF's is to try and come up with a possible trend, detail is impossible! Read the forecast as a forecasted trend and it makes sense. I've read the above as being unsettled with not much chance of any hot spells. Not really sure what the criticism is for? What detail would you like for 6 months time?

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