Hurricane Bertha (Was category-3)

[opplevelse]

... shear seems to have all but gone bar maybe the far northern segment of the system which has allowed a very good structure to once again develop....

Dont you meant South Western? This is why she is looking a little lopsided at the moment. Still a ridge of 20-30kts of shear all across the North.

Hamilton could be in for a little bit of wind.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Big Bertha currently sitting as a Cat 2. And she is gradually trotting NW. Bermuda currently under watch.

000

WTNT32 KNHC 100833

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 29

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008

500 AM AST THU JUL 10 2008

...BERTHA MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE NORTHWEST...

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD

IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR

THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 545 MILES...

875 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A

GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140

MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF

BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...26.0 N...59.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[kold weather]

Looks like the shear has increased a little bit more since last night the eye becoming clouded over again. Microwave doesn't really show any signs of an EWRC as of yet though won't rule that out for a little while yet. My guess is shear has increased a little and some slightly drier air has also been ingested into the circulation, esp on the southern side where the eyewall is close to opening up. this could eventually lead to a new eyewall forming or the system may just mix out the drier air within its circulation over time its going to be a wait and see moment.

Also just to note that Bertha has taken a wobble to the west, all these wobbles are now key as to exactly what weather Bermuda may get, the island is well able to withstand blows from hurricanes it should be mentioned.

Edit- eye has become a little better defined again compared to what I had seen before, drier air may already be mixing out in the system.

Edited July 10, 2008 by kold weather

[tinybill]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...p&TYPE=ssmi

nice picture of the eye

[Cookie]

first one for bertha

Storm Alert issued at 10 Jul, 2008 21:00 GMT

Hurricane BERTHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Bermuda

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

[adamavfc]

noob here. Whats TS stand for?

[Gray-Wolf]

noob here. Whats TS stand for?

Thunder storm I guess

[Radiating Dendrite]

Ts = Tropical Storm maybe :-)

[Somerset Squall]

Bertha is currently going through an Eye Wall Replacement Cycle (EWRC), as the old eye has practically vanished and the outer eye wall is becoming more dominant. Bertha is likely to lose intensity whilst doing this but there is some scope for a little strengthening afterwards as the new eye contracts. Cooler waters and higher shear lie not very far to the north though, and the NHC forecast Betha to hold intensity for the next couple days and then weaken thereafter. Bertha is currently a 75kt, cat 1 hurricane.

[kold weather]

Bertha is a little messy right now with the inner eyewall remains still within the much larger eye. As the outer eyewall contracts in the next 12hrs we should see the inner stuff slowly decay away but probably not in any hurry. I'd put bertha at 70kts and maybe weakening, systems that still have double eyewalls tend to be weaker then you'd expect and until it totally shifts the inner eyewall that will probably be the case, not that its far from doing that I have to admit.

The key question is can it contract the outer eyewall for strengthening by the time recon reaches the hurricane?

We have recon due into the system by 18z leaving the US in a couple of hours.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 11 Jul, 2008 9:00 GMT

Hurricane BERTHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Bermuda

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

WTNT32 KNHC 110831

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 33

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008

500 AM AST FRI JUL 11 2008

...BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE

IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...

565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION ARE

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...BERTHA WILL

SLOWLY APPROACH BERMUDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO

140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...28.0 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[kold weather]

Just a quick post from me, inner eyewall still having a hard time totally decaying whilst the outer eyewall is still trying to become totally dominant.

Anyway recon is now on the way, heading towards Bertha due for around 18z but I think may be in Bertha a little earlier then that.

[kold weather]

As expecgted Recon is in a little sooner then planned and has just done a center fix, with an estimated pressure around 976mbs. Only the NW quadrant has been fixed but there was found winds of 80kts at flight level which supports about 70kts at the surface. the stronger NE quadrant will be sampled later and when it is I will put in the results on this post as well as any other higher wind speeds if recorded.

Edit---latest pass through SE eyewall found flight level winds of 92kts though the surface estimated winds were only about 65kts. FL winds support about 80kts.

Edited July 11, 2008 by kold weather

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Still no real change in big bertha. Bermuda still expected to get TS winds from her.

WTNT32 KNHC 120837

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 37

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008

500 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2008

...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOTION OR INTENSITY OF BERTHA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...

365 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A

SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY

PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA...BUT THE MOTION COULD

OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO

140 MILES...220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE

ENOUGH TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF

TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS

IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...29.7 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[The PIT]

Okay whats happening with old Bertha????

[James M]

Okay whats happening with old Bertha????

Not much apparently, moving N at a very slow 1mph, she has weakened slowly and according to the NHC is barely a hurricane:

000

WTNT42 KNHC 122037

TCDAT2

HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008

500 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS COMPLETED TWO PASSES THROUGH THE EYE OF

BERTHA AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 79 AND 74 KT. THE

SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE DID NOT REPORT ANY HURRICANE FORCE

WINDS...IN FACT...THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE 58 KNOTS IN THE

SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

65 KNOTS...MAKING BERTHA BARELY A HURRICANE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS

ARE NOT HOSTILE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BUT BERTHA HAS BEEN LOCATED

TOO MANY HOURS IN THE SAME AREA PRODUCING UPWELLING. THE HURRICANE

HAS LOST A LOT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION

IS LARGE AND VIGOROUS WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED.

THEREFORE...BERTHA COULD GATHER SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT GETS OUT THAT

AREA OF COOL WATERS INDUCED BY THE HURRICANE ITSELF. FOR

NOW...BERTHA IS KEPT AS A 65 KNOT HURRICANE FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH A

GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. BERTHA IS

LIKELY TO BECOME LARGER AS IT GAINS LATITUDE AND BEGIN TO INTERACT

WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.

BERTHA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE DAY. THE PATTERN OF WEAK STEERING

CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO....SO ONLY

A PAINFULLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. BEYOND THREE

DAYS...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE

MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION AND LOCATED BETWEEN AN EASTWARD MOVING

TROUGH AND A LARGER CUT OFF LOW TO THE EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD

FORCE BERTHA ON A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION

PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE DYNAMICAL TRACK

GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER AVILA

Edited July 12, 2008 by James M

[Cookie]

update

Storm Alert issued at 12 Jul, 2008 21:00 GMT

Hurricane BERTHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Bermuda

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Edited July 12, 2008 by cookie

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, Bertha is trapped in a weak steering environment at the moment, and as the forecast says, upwelling is causing problems for Bertha. Although sea surface temps are warm, these warm waters don't extend that far beneath the surface and as Bertha loiters over the same area for a lengthy period, it is mixing colder water to the surface, thus providing an unfavourable environment for strengthening, or even maintaining intensity it seems at the moment.

[Cookie]

thanks mate.

more information on Bertha can be found in the link below

http://www.stormvideographer.com/blog/

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Big bertha is no longer big. Down graded to a TS (Tropical Storm) winds around 70mph and practically stationary.

000

WTNT32 KNHC 131135

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008

800 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008

...BERTHA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL

WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220

MILES...355 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST

IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ON THIS

TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO

THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD

BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST

TRACK INDICATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA

OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...29.8 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT...

STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Somerset Squall]

Bertha currently is a 55kt tropical storm, and is still moving nowhere fast. Bertha eventually will be taken eastwards in mid-lattitude westerlies but little weakening is forecast as Bertha will remain in a fairly low shear environment.

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008

1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION

ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA HAS DECREASED EXCEPT WITHIN A BAND TO THE

NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...BERTHA STILL HAS A LARGE AND

VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55

KNOTS AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL GIVE US ADDITIONAL INTENSITY

AND WIND RADII INFORMATION LATER TODAY. SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD

INDUCE WEAKENING...BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND INTENSITY MODELS

EITHER STRENGTHEN OR KEEP BERTHA WITH THE SAME INTENSITY. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS OPTED FOR AN INITIAL WEAKENING AND THEN

FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODELS CALLING FOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY.

BERTHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT NOW

APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT ABOUT 2

TO 3 KNOTS. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AND A TROUGH

APPROACHES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A SLOW

NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE

MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BE STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD.

HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL SLOW AND TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA COULD

BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 30.2N 63.0W 55 KT

12HR VT 14/0000Z 30.4N 63.0W 50 KT

24HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 63.5W 50 KT

36HR VT 15/0000Z 33.0N 63.6W 50 KT

48HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 63.0W 50 KT

72HR VT 16/1200Z 36.0N 61.0W 50 KT

96HR VT 17/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W 50 KT

120HR VT 18/1200Z 35.0N 54.0W 50 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[tcc]

Apparently it's now on the move! Moving NW at 2 mph, which means it could score a direct hit on Bermuda as a TS, mostly wind as there doesn't appear to be that much rain associated with it now.

[Hurricane Andrew]

000

WTNT32 KNHC 140859

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 45

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008

500 AM AST MON JUL 14 2008

...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARRIVING IN BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90

MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.

A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A

GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE

CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA LATER

TODAY.

BERTHA IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR

65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH

IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM

FROM THE CENTER. COMMANDERS POINT...AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE IN

BERMUDA...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41 MPH...67

KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5

INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...31.5 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Gibli]

Bermuda weather radar loop:

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

Gibli