Jump to content
Winter
Local
Radar
Snow?
IGNORED

Tropical Depression 05E


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

The active start to the East Pacific season continues as invest 97E is upgraded to Tropical Depression Five, with an initial intensity of 25kts. TD5 is in it's formative stages and only slow development is expected due to moderate easterly shear impinging on the system. Waters are very warm in the area though, and this should at least facilitate some modest development. TD5 is expected to track generally west-northwestwards and this will bring the system very close to the coast of Mexico, so it'll need to be watched.

Satellite image:

xxirg9bbm.jpg

  • Replies 6
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Posted
Tropical Depression 05E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

ep200805.gif

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Thanks for the alert and track map Cookie.

TD5 hasn't got any better organised this morning, but although disorganised, the convection is very deep indeed. Interesting comments from NHC in their earlier forecast:

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL

DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS A STRUCTURE SIMILAR TO THE MONSOON CYCLONES

OF THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH INDIAN OCEANS. THE

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ABOUT 70-80 N

MI FROM THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A SECOND LARGE AREA OF

20-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE

CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD STRONG...BUT

DISORGANIZED...CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB

AND SAB REMAIN 25 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

Slow strengthening is predicted but it is all dependant on whether TD5 can get any better organised, whether it moves closer to land, or whether the shear eases at all. Latest from NHC:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008

200 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING IN

DETERMINING ITS POSITION AND TRACK. A 0108Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND

NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED A MUCH FARTHER WEST POSITION

THAN HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY CARRIED. HOWEVER...BOTH THE QUIKSCAT PASS

AND A SUBSEQUENT ASCAT PASS WERE AMBIGUOUS AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED

CIRCULATION CENTER EXISTS CURRENTLY. THE INTENSITY HAS PERHAPS

BEEN MORE READILY ASSESSED AS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND BOTH

SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGEST WINDS REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM

FORCE. NO CHANGE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INDICATED.

ASSUMING THAT A CLOSED CENTER EXISTS IN THE CYCLONE...A ROUGH MOTION

VECTOR OF 300/8 IS ANALYZED. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK RIDGE

REMAINING IN PLACE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST

PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE BRINGS THE CYCLONE CLOSE TO

THE MEXICAN COAST WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE

JUST SKIRTS THE COAST...WHILE OTHERS DISSIPATE THE SURFACE

CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND AND ADVECT

A MID-LEVEL VORTEX OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS

PROBLEMATIC... HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE LARGE RELOCATION THAT WAS

NEEDED EARLIER. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEND BACK

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE

LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AS A WEAKENING SYSTEM.

THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY IS OVER WARM WATERS AND HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE

BUT IS BEING IMPACTED BY RATHER STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR

SHOULD CONTINUE MAKING MORE THAN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION

UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND

GFDL MODELS...WHICH SPIN THE CYCLONE UP TO A 50 KT TROPICAL STORM...

AND THE HWRF AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH DO NOT INTENSIFY IT. BY DAYS

4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER WATERS

OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 15.7N 102.2W 25 KT

12HR VT 06/1800Z 16.4N 103.0W 30 KT

24HR VT 07/0600Z 17.3N 103.7W 35 KT

36HR VT 07/1800Z 18.4N 104.4W 40 KT

48HR VT 08/0600Z 19.3N 105.5W 40 KT

72HR VT 09/0600Z 21.0N 108.0W 40 KT

96HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 111.0W 35 KT

120HR VT 11/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W 30 KT

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

TD05 is so disorganised currently that it's not even certain a closed circulation exists: if the NHC can't find one then TD5 will be downgraded.

Unisys:

sat_ir_s.gif

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Posted

It really dose a look a mess!

not much change since the last update

Storm Alert issued at 6 Jul, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression 05E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Posted
Storm Alert issued at 6 Jul, 2008 15:00 GMT

Tropical Depression 05E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)

probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours

Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Posted

another updated hasn't been named this storm. do you think it will somerset?

Storm Alert issued at 6 Jul, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Depression 05E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)

probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted
another updated hasn't been named this storm. do you think it will somerset?

Had I logged in last night and answered your question I would have said no, and now it's almost definitely a no. The trouble with TD5 is although the convection was very deep and widespread, the circulation center was poorly defined, which meant the winds didn't ramp up at all. TD5 is now moving inland and will shortly dissipate across inland Mexico. A system interesting for the amount of rain it had attached to it, could cause some problems in the area over the next 48 hours at least.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...