Typhoon Kalmaegi

[Somerset Squall]

After a couple weeks of inactivity, the West Pacific has produced a new cyclone- Tropical Depression 08W. 08W is currently located 425 nautical miles south-southeast of Taiwan and is slowly meandering in weak steering currents. A prounounced north-northwestward turn is forecast by the JTWC, as a ridge builds stronger to the east. This will bring the system near to Taiwan by 48hrs. 08W is forecast to strengthen over warm waters, favourable outflow and moderate shear. JTWC are currently expecting a peak of 55kts prior to landfall.

Satellite image shows 08W is still in formative stage and looks reletively disorganised, so strengthening will be slow:

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates somerset :lol:

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 08W has become better organised and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Kalmaegi by the JMA. Further strengthening is predicted as Kalmaegi starts to push generally northwards towards Taiwan. Yesterday, the system lacked significant structure but Kalmaegi now has deep, organised convection over a better defined centre so faster strengthening may occur now in favourable conditions aof low shear, warm sea temps and fair outflow. There are signs of weak banding features too indicative of a strengthening cyclone. It is possible Kalmaegi may become a typhoon prior to landfall in Taiwan. Beyond 48hrs, Kalmaegi willweaken due to land interaction. If Kalmaegi doesn't make landfall, weakeing is still likely as waters begin to cool at this lattitude.

[Somerset Squall]

Kalmaegi has pushed further westwards than anticipated bring it closer to the Philippines, where it is currently bringing some very heavy rainfall. Potential for some flooding here over the next 24 hours. Kalmaegi is expected to turn northwards into a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the northeast, but the timing of this turn is still uncertain. This means both Taiwan and China are at risk from seeing Kalmaegi in the coming days.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 15 Jul, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 16 Jul, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the alerts Cookie.

Kalmaegi has continued to intensify, and is now at 55kts. Banding has improved over the system and convection remains deep over the centre. Kalmaegi is expected to become a typhoon tomorrow on it's northward track. Kalmaegi has finally began moving northwards towards the weakness in the subtropical ridge to the northeast. The new track takes Kalmaegi east of Taiwan though a landfall is still possible. Regardless of landfall, Kalmaegi is expected to be a typhoon as it brushes by so heavy rains and strong winds are still to be expected over Taiwan. Improved outflow, low shear and warm sea temps will allow Kalmaegi to intensify further. Extratropical transisition will begin near 72hrs as Kalmaegi accelerates northeastwards towards cooler waters near South Korea.

You can see how much more organised Kalmaegi is than yesterday:

[Cookie]

thanks somerset

Storm Alert issued at 16 Jul, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 48 hours

Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Kalmaegi has rapidly intensified into an 80kt typhoon. Rapid strengthening is expected to continue and JTWC expect Kalmaegi to peak as a monster 105kt cat 3. It also appears Taiwan may now again be in for an almost direct hit at this strength, so it really is looking like a dangerous situation for the island. Kalmaegi is then expected to become a vigorous extratropical storm and make landfall in South Korea. Good poleward and equatorward outflow along with high sea temps have been accounted for and are expected to continue the rapid intensification. It really seems Kalmaegi is bombing now, the question is just how strong will it get in these excellent conditions?

[kold weather]

Well it has really deep convection with it SS as well as a powerful feeder band on the SW side and also it does look like an eye has very recently popped out. I believe that its highly likely this will become a category-3 but we will hve to wait and see, the only thing that could stop strengthening right now is land interaction to the west.

[Somerset Squall]

Kalmaegi is up to 90kts, but as you suggested KW, land interaction is now taking a role. Kalmaegi is currently pounding Taiwan with torrential rains and damaging winds- but this land interaction may prohibit further intensification. On the northwards track, Kalmaegi is expected to clip eastern China which will cause weakening then the typhoon will turn extratropical prior to landfall in South Korea. Could well be a damaging system this one, hopefully people are prepared.

[Somerset Squall]

Kalmaegi has weakened to 75kts over the last 6 hours as it clips Taiwan. Kalmaegi jogged westwards which meant a direct landfall for the northern half of the island. Most of Taiwan is still experiencing some very damaging winds and torrential rain. A second landfall is expected over eastern China in 24hrs, but by this time Kalmaegi is expected to have weakened to a tropical storm. Still likely to bring excessive rainfall totals though.

[kold weather]

Yep its taking a sharp dive right nito land, thats stopped the development of this system and it now looks a little messier, still got very deep convection mind you and I guess there must be some pretty horrid rainfall rates over Taiwan.

[Cookie]

i hope their isn't to much destruction

Storm Alert issued at 17 Jul, 2008 18:00 GMT

Typhoon KALMAEGI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% currently

probability for TS is 85% currently

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Kalmaegi has weakened further and has made it's second landfall, this time in Eastern China. Intensity has decreased to 45kts due to land interaction and increased shear. Kalmaegi is expected to re-emerge over water yet again, then begin extratropical transition in a couple days time in the Yellow Sea as high shear and dry air will make the system cold cored. Currently bringing torrential rains but winds are gradually easing.

[Somerset Squall]

The forecast has changed for Kalmaegi. The storm has continued inland pushing northwestwards and has rapidly weakened over the last 6 hours. The JTWC have issued a final warning on the system as it is dissipating. Kalmaegi is not expected to emerge over water as a tropical cyclone.

6 are confirmed dead in Taiwan, and 44 inches of rain fell in 24 hours!!! :o

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7513441.stm

[Cookie]

The forecast has changed for Kalmaegi. The storm has continued inland pushing northwestwards and has rapidly weakened over the last 6 hours. The JTWC have issued a final warning on the system as it is dissipating. Kalmaegi is not expected to emerge over water as a tropical cyclone.

6 are confirmed dead in Taiwan, and 44 inches of rain fell in 24 hours!!!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7513441.stm

my word 44 inches!!

yup this system is a gonna. shame about the deaths though.