"The Present Climate Fluctuation", a Met Office discussion from 1949

[Weather-history]

On the 7th of November 1949, a Met Office seminar was held entitled "The present climatic fluctuation" hosted by the Swedish glaciologist Hans Ahlmann. Hubert Lamb, Gordon Manley and C.E.P Brooks were present.

Here's a summary of that discussion

[johnholmes]

grief the names in there bring back memories, just made a coffee so many thanks for providing a good read once again Keven.

a truly fascinating read and even then some of the brightest meteorologists/climatologists were hinting that IF the trend, whatever was causing it, continued for another 25 years, then we could possibly see conditions developing similar to those of Saxon England.

How perceptive.

Sutcliffe of course was one of the leading meteorologists of his day, and his work on thermal dynamics is used in every computer model today with regard, especially, to thermal or thickness changes at frontal boundaries.

[osmposm]

Thank you again for yet another exceptionally interesting read.

Yes, John, I also noted Brooks's suggestion of a possible change to a warmer climate if the then current cooler conditions continued to the 1970s or 80s. I also rather liked his hypothesis that these changes might be intitiated by random processes that are subsequently amplified by the system until an unstable situation is reached - or another random event begins a counter-movement.

All of which does not negate the possibility of AGW, of course, since our activites may be - as seems likely to me - giving the whole system a higher temperature base over which these cycles continue to operate. But real food for thought.

[beng]

Thanks Kevin. It's fascinating to read what was written back then - they really knew their subject when you think they had no satellites or computers to help them! I especially liked the bit about the warming of the Norwegian Sea leading to a greater chance of Scandinavian blocks. Perhaps we're about to see some 1940 style winters again.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Although maybe it's a chicken and Egg scenario.