Typhoon Fung-Wong

[Somerset Squall]

TD09W has formed in the west pacific, to the south of Japan. It's forecast track is not typical of storms at this lattitude; TD09W is heading westwards towards Taiwan, along the southern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the north over Japan. Intensification is forecast due to good outflow, warm sea temps and lessening shear. Beyond 72hrs, a strong tropical storm is expected to make landfall in Taiwan. It's possible the system may be a typhoon at this point so it needs watching.

[Cookie]

never a dull moment

Storm Alert issued at 24 Jul, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Depression 09W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

its been named

Storm Alert issued at 25 Jul, 2008 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

China

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, we now have Tropical Storm Fung_Wong. Continued strengthening is predicted due to low shear and warm waters, and Fung_Wong could become a typhoon prior to landfall in Taiwan, though it's currently forecast to peak at 60kts by the JTWC (which I wouldn't be surprised if that was a bit low). Fung_Wong will then weaken over the rugged terrain of Taiwan before making a second landfall in China, about midway between Shanghai and Hong Kong.

[Cookie]

do you think it was cause a lot of damage?

[Somerset Squall]

Depends how strong it gets. A cat 1 can cause significant damage if it hits a vunerable area or in the daytime. What's slightly worrying now is the JMA are being quite aggressive with the intensity forecast, execting a peak of 80kts prior to landfall. Let's see if the JTWC follow suit.

[Cookie]

its just you me again mate

Storm Alert issued at 25 Jul, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 26 Jul, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 26 Jul, 2008 18:00 GMT

Typhoon FUNG-WONG is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 27 Jul, 2008 6:00 GMT

Typhoon FUNG-WONG is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[James M]

Is this one looking to be a Cat 3 at landfall in Taiwan?

[Cookie]

yup i think so

[Fraggle]

do you think it was cause a lot of damage?

I think the problem is that they had a hit just a week ago, and the more remote areas of the island won't have had time to recover from that yet. Taiwan is regularly hit by typhoons, so they are used to them hitting the island, but even so the damage takes a while to repair. I visited last September, and a number of roads were still closed after a typhoon hit about 3-4 weeks earlier. Some of the communities in the mountainous central spine will definitely be badly affected and probably cut off for a while. It's no wonder that most of the island's population is based on the west and north of the island rather than in the direct firing line of the Pacific storms.

[Somerset Squall]

Fung_Wong has intensified more than expected due to warm waters, low shear and enhanced outflow. Initial intensity is 90kts, and indeed, it looks like Taiwan will be hit by a cat 3 typhoon. Second landfall will then be China, and Fung_Wong may still be a typhoon at this point as it's making landfall in Taiwan stronger than anticipated. Let's hope damage and deaths are limited.

[Cookie]

update

Storm Alert issued at 27 Jul, 2008 18:00 GMT

Typhoon FUNG-WONG is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Nanchang (28.7 N, 115.9 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[Fraggle]

Apparently Fung-Wong caused some tornados in Taiwan, at least one off the north coast that dredged up lots of fish from the sea which the birds were devouring despite the wind. A friend in Taiwan tells me that in the Taitung area on the east coast "there was a so-called 'fire wind', when the typhoon passed by the central mountains, the air became very dry and the temperature reached 40-45 degrees, and suddenly caused all the trees to catch fire. Fortunately, it was a very baby "fire wind" which only lasted for half hour." We hear of the wind and rain effects of hurricanes, but I thought that was an interesting side-effect that doesn't get reported very often.

Reports from when it hit the island suggest that Fung-Wong was packing winds of between 144 and 180-kilometers an hour, which reduced to between 119 and 155 kilometers per hour as it traversed the island. CNN is reporting that some areas of Taiwan experienced up to 36 inches (900 mm). Thankfully I've not heard of any deaths on the island though.

[Somerset Squall]

Apparently Fung-Wong caused some tornados in Taiwan, at least one off the north coast that dredged up lots of fish from the sea which the birds were devouring despite the wind. A friend in Taiwan tells me that in the Taitung area on the east coast "there was a so-called 'fire wind', when the typhoon passed by the central mountains, the air became very dry and the temperature reached 40-45 degrees, and suddenly caused all the trees to catch fire. Fortunately, it was a very baby "fire wind" which only lasted for half hour." We hear of the wind and rain effects of hurricanes, but I thought that was an interesting side-effect that doesn't get reported very often.

Reports from when it hit the island suggest that Fung-Wong was packing winds of between 144 and 180-kilometers an hour, which reduced to between 119 and 155 kilometers per hour as it traversed the island. CNN is reporting that some areas of Taiwan experienced up to 36 inches (900 mm). Thankfully I've not heard of any deaths on the island though.

Thanks for the info Fraggle, 36 inches doesn't bare thinking about :huh:

Fung_Wong has weakened to a 60kt tropical storm and is now making landfall in China. Heavy rains are still being felt in Taiwan due to a strong convectional band sweeping over the island. The strongest winds are now being felt by China as Fung_Wong's eye moves on shore. Continued northwestward motion is anticipated until dissipation.

[Cookie]

last warning out

torm Alert issued at 28 Jul, 2008 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for TS is 90% currently

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for TS is 90% currently

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for TS is 60% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Fraggle]

According to ICRT (International Community Radio Taiwan), Fung-Wong has left two dead, six injured and 140,000 without power across Taiwan. One of the dead fell off a shed roof he was trying to repair, perhaps not the safest thing to attempt to do during a typhoon, but sad nonetheless. But under the circumstances it looks like the authorities got their emergency planning much better this time compared to the last typhoon a couple of weeks ago. Incidentally, Fung-Wong apparently translates as "Phoenix"; my friend in Taiwan had a day off work (as is usual during a typhoon) in honour of the Phoenix typhoon...

[Cookie]

thanks for you're input mate <_<

very daft to be fixing a roof at the time!