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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

The melt has increased.......less mass than ever recorded before. 56% of perennial ice lost since records began replaced with 1-2m thick single year ice.

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
Whether it is something to worry about or not is another matter. Personally I think not,but would maintain that a problem of any kind is better dealt with than speculating about the cause.

That's an interesting take on problem-solving, LG.

In some areas, perhaps - is it more important to catch and severely punish young knife users than to throw millions of pounds at apparently fruitless attempts make them more thoughtful, caring human beings? I don't know the answer to that one, though I think I'd like the matter of their education to be addressed more aggressively.

But if water starts dripping into your bedroom, are you happy to keep moving the bed, placing and emptying buckets under the drips, covering your furniture with plastic sheets, etc etc? Might you not...just maybe...go into the loft to see what's causing the problem, and then have a stab at either repairing the plumbing or mending the roof?

Ossie

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
That's an interesting take on problem-solving, LG.

In some areas, perhaps - is it more important to catch and severely punish young knife users than to throw millions of pounds at apparently fruitless attempts make them more thoughtful, caring human beings? I don't know the answer to that one, though I think I'd like the matter of their education to be addressed more aggressively.

But if water starts dripping into your bedroom, are you happy to keep moving the bed, placing and emptying buckets under the drips, covering your furniture with plastic sheets, etc etc? Might you not...just maybe...go into the loft to see what's causing the problem, and then have a stab at either repairing the plumbing or mending the roof?

Ossie

Mend the roof? Why it's just fine when it aint rainin' and when it is rainin' it's too wet to repair it!

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

...but a new record low for ice 'mass' is set.................strange sense of deja-vu.......

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
...but a new record low for ice 'mass' is set.................strange sense of deja-vu.......

Always got to find that negative somewhere.

Anyway the poles have been ice free before and planet survived which will again more likely than not.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Always got to find that negative somewhere.

Anyway the poles have been ice free before and planet survived which will again more likely than not.

My dear Pit, though inately selfish I know, my concerns are far smaller than the planet involving just a bunch of Guys that mean everything to me. Sorry an' all that but without them the planet can dissappear into a black hole of our own creation so far as I am concerned.

I do believe I'm not alone in these concerns.........

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
My dear Pit, though inately selfish I know, my concerns are far smaller than the planet involving just a bunch of Guys that mean everything to me. Sorry an' all that but without them the planet can dissappear into a black hole of our own creation so far as I am concerned.

I do believe I'm not alone in these concerns.........

Nothing wrong in being concerned but you do look for every possible thing and then blow it up into Armageddon. Of course when companies, Politicians and Scientists are creating the scare this is the kind of reaction they want.

probably drifting of subject though.

I always wonder how much difference continental drift makes to ocean currents and climate. Got have effect over millions of years.

Edited by The PIT
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Latest IJIS Figures, the Current Ice extent of 4707813sqkm2, is very slightly below Saturday's figure 4,745,156sqkm2, but remains above the year low figure 4,707,813sqkm2.

Even if the IJIS figure does drop a little further, it is not likely to go much lower before the re freeze sets in.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I think the main feature of the season was the less spectacular but still impressive ice-free margin at about 79 N in the east Siberian sector (compared to about 84 N last year) but somewhat balanced by greater ice melt north of Novaya Zemlya and Franz Josef Land, which became the new anomalous front if you like, at about 83 N currently. The Canadian sector had more or less a normal season compared to the past ten or twenty, and the new ice season has already begun to advance there. Any further noteworthy action this season could take place in terms of further advances of open water around 60E but this seems limited to one or two more degrees before reversal. The east Siberian sector seems to be in equilibrium and about to re-advance south.

I see it as a glass half full for either side in the debate, if that is what it can be called -- not as extreme as 2007, still more extreme than any long-term average. From this point it could go either way in the future, the linear trend from 2007 to 2008 could be the start of a colder period or it could be a temporary peak in melting that would be overtaken in some future year.

Bring on the rebound!!

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!

Darkman, this is a better place for arguments about present and future ice coverage, rather than Carinthian's Ice thread in the Autumn Discussion. So I am copying from there my recent questions to you, together with my earlier post to which they referred:

.....unfortunately one small rise for one year does not necessarily mean that the minimum will continue rising (though of course it may). Have a look at this chart from Cryosphere of NH ice area since 1978:

post-384-1221921613_thumb.jpg

From the bottom points of the graph line you can see that, for example, the 1992 minimum was higher than than that of 1991, 1994 was higher than 1993, 1996 was higher than 1995, 2001 was higher than 2000 - and there was actually a two year increase from 2002 through to 2004. But each of those increases was subsequently reversed, and the overall longer trend continued down. The movement between two years, up or down, means very little. And in my opinion, the likelihood of a longer term rise is even lower now because of the high proportion of thin, vulnerable, single-year ice after 2007's melt.

If the climate in the arctic is genuinely set for a substantial cooling for a while then we may see further gains - though of course we don't know how important a contribution ocean temperatures make to the melt, let alone whether or not they will fall too. If it does not cool significantly, then in my opinion we will not see a continued increase - indeed, if I were a betting man, I would be putting money on the minimum record being broken again within the next five years, and perhaps sooner than that. If we get two more rises - i.e three in all - on the trot I will seriously reconsider my opinion. And if we pass the five-year mark with the 2007 record still intact I will gracefully - and with genuine happiness - admit that I was wrong!

* * * * * * *

Can I assume, Darkman, that you haven't read my post immediately above yours, showing how unwise it is to assume any longer trend from just one year's ice cover?............Or perhaps you've read it, but don't agree with it: in which case I'd be interested to know where my observation or conclusion was flawed. As you can see from the graph, the maximum goes up and down like a yoyo as well as the minimum. Can you really be so sure already that "The fact is the Ice pack is now growing"? (I assume you're referring to a longer trend, not just the normal growth as we move towards winter.)

You asked G-W a (fairly) straight question about whether he would now re-evaluate his stance on GW relating to the artic, and had "the capacity to acknowledge that I and others were right and you were wrong?". His very straight answer was 'NO'. Since, in my opinion, my posts go some way to explaining why that was his answer, I would be very interested to hear your answer to my question to you (underlined in bold above).

Thanks, Ossie

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Latest Figures on the IJIS Method, The ice extent remains virtually unchanged, slightly above the year low recorded on the 9th Sept, so still a chance it may drop a little below the current low recorded, but even if it does this it will not be by much.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'll wager a very faltering start to the refreeze (as was the case last year) with newly formed 'skins' of ice being constantly disrupted by swell and wind.

The later we see refreeze the thinner the ice produced and with an ever early start to the melt season there can be only one net result.......IMHO :lol:

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A few posts have been deleted, the conduct in here lately has shown an improvement, so please remember to be polite and respectful.

This is a very important topic and people have differing views, and if we can ensure respect then we can continue to have a good debate.

I will keep this thread going until the end of September and then we will have a new thread to discuss the refreeze and the "winter" season.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Interesting report here from the American consul at Bergen Norway submitted to the State Department, Washington in 1922; it details changes and warming in the Arctic.

This opening paragraph wouldn't look out of place in a report made today:

"The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen and the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto unheard of high temperatures in that part of the earth's surface".

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Makes you wonder just where we would be today without the period of 'global dimming' doesn't it???

The up side being that the mess China and India are shoving out may just do similar and buy us a little breathing space. That said some of the deep ocean currents warmed by phase 1 warming are now reaching the end of their journey's and so even if we mask out the sun we still have to deal with that pulse of warming. When I see the polynia's around Antarctica at present and reflect upon the mid-winter Wilkins event (and the 'seal cap' temps) I cannot but wonder if part of it is the re-emergence of the old warmed seas.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Makes you wonder just where we would be today without the period of 'global dimming' doesn't it???

The up side being that the mess China and India are shoving out may just do similar and buy us a little breathing space. That said some of the deep ocean currents warmed by phase 1 warming are now reaching the end of their journey's and so even if we mask out the sun we still have to deal with that pulse of warming. When I see the polynia's around Antarctica at present and reflect upon the mid-winter Wilkins event (and the 'seal cap' temps) I cannot but wonder if part of it is the re-emergence of the old warmed seas.

That's an argument which can swing both ways though. If we were as warm in the 1920's as we are today (give or take a little, nothing's absolutely the same) and the cooler period afterwards can be attributed to "global dimming", then the net result surely must be that despite increasing emissions in the interim, we haven't actually warmed at all since the 1920's?

We cooled down for two or three decades, then we cleaned up our act smog wise, hey presto! Rebound rise in temperatures back to where they were previously. Doesn't tally with increased emissions of CO2 being responsible for the warming in recent decades, levels are quite a lot higher today than they were back in the early 20th century. If that story were to hold water shouldn't temperatures have shot up a great deal more once the air had cleared, if dimming was suppressing or masking the warming? They surely would have to, if temps were already equal to today back in those days of much lower emissions; seems to me, the net result is regardless of CO2, we're back where we were before we made the world cooler with our dirty air.

Kind of "move along, nothing to see here" scenario.

Oceans:see Polyakov.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

t.gif

Methane released in the Arctic could raise global temperatures

By Jessica Salter

Last Updated: 6:01am BST 23/09/2008

Millions of tons of methane stored beneath the Arctic seabed is bubbling up to the surface and being released into the atmosphere as the region warms up and the ice retreats, scientists have said.

The gas is said to be 20 times more powerful than carbon dioxide and scientists have warned that it could accelerate global warming.

It is usually locked in a deep freeze below the sea, but as the ice melts on the surface, small holes, or “chimneys”, appear and the gas escapes.

Orjan Gustafsson, of Stockholm University in Sweden, who is onboard the Russian research ship Jacob Smirnitskyi, said: “Yesterday for the first time we documented a field where the release was so intense that the methane did not have time to dissolve into the seawater but was rising as methane bubbles to the sea surface.”

He told The Independent that the team were documenting the “methane chimneys” using an echo sounder and seismic instruments.

Scientists believe that underground stores of methane have in the past been responsible for rapid rises in global temperatures, changes in the climate and even extinction of species.

They think that the amount of methane being released from the area of the Arctic along the Siberian continental shelf could equal the emissions from the rest of the world’s oceans put together.

The preliminary findings of the International Siberian Shelf Study 2008 are being prepared for publication by the American Geophysical Union.

The Arctic region has risen in temperature by 39.2F (4C) over recent decades according to scientists.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So not only do we see methane levels increase from melting permafrost we also get the above as well!!!

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Brixton, South London
  • Location: Brixton, South London

"The Arctic region has risen in temperature by 39.2F (4C) over recent decades according to scientists."

An example of the Philip Eden/Torygraph phenomenon: mistaken conversions of relative readings in celsius to absolute readings in fahrenheit.

regards

ACB

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Final Update of my spreadsheet for the Summer Period, the Ice has risen by 120,000 sqkm2 over the past 4 days, so the year figure for 2007 can be confirmed at 4,707,813sqkm2, this is 450,000sqkm2 greater than 2007 and just over 600,000sqkm2 smaller than the other record low year. (2005)

This thread is now closed, the new thread for Autumn 2008 is here - > http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...c=49668&hl=

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