Netweather Long Range Forecast Updated

[Paul]

The seasonal lrf has been updated on the site, you can read it here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

[Gavin P]

Many thanks Paul. No surprises about your August outlook from me.

Rather surprised about the autumn outlook, though. A cool and wet autumn would certainly be very unusual indeed. We haven't had a wet September since 2000 and a cool and wet September since 1994/1995? We haven't had a wet October since 2004. So it would certainly be a change on recent years.

[Paul]

Apologies all, we've discovered there may be some data issues within this forecast, we have posted the following message on there and would advise caution over what is currently being shown:

UPDATE 31/07/2008 - 16:50 - We have discovered some potential data errors within today's updated long range forecast and are investigating this. A further update to the forecast will be made on Monday 4th August if necessary. Apologies for any inconvenience that this causes.

[stewfox]

The seasonal lrf has been updated on the site, you can read it here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

I read potential snow in November

[Paul]

I'd read the notice above first!!

[Stu_London]

I'd read the notice above first!!

Will it snow in Carlisle though?

[Mark Bayley]

Good forecast, looks like the unsettled weather continues

November looked interesting

Till i saw the notice :lol:

Please don't change

Can see were your coming from though because looking at the maps they don't seem agree with the the RAW cfs maps, unfortunatly

Edited July 31, 2008 by mark bayley

[Frosty.]

I would expect a mild nov/dec/jan/feb as per usual, it looks a wet autumn and this would limit the frost/fog potential.

[Bottesford]

I just hope the data error changes the August & September outlooks! I'll keep the rest :lol:

[The PIT]

Well the data errors at the moment for me means the forecast is basically flawed and cannot be taken seriously. I'll wait for the correction.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think it should stand...because I think there will be early snows for the Alps etc and this probably from Lps diving NW to SE and a chilly late autumn for the UK.

BFTP

[Paul]

The forecast has now been updated again, this time with no data issues! Sorry for the problems previously.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

[reef]

Those temperatures would give the coldest Autumn since 1993. Albeit only 0.2C below average overall. The figures equate to:

August - 15.7C

September - 13.0C

October - 10.7C

November - 6.7C

(based on the 1980-2003 average used)

More importantly it would take the rolling 12 month average to 10.04C with just a month to go until the end of the year, so potentially a sub-10C year aswell (December would need to be 4.3C). It would also give us two below average seasons in a row (Summer and Autumn).

An interesting forecast, but slightly worrying with regards to winter. Id call the chance of two below average seasons remote at present, but three (i.e winter) doesnt inspire much confidence at all. CFS looks to be going for an average December/January and cold February though - so who knows :lol:

[Bottesford]

Pity August wasn't revised as rainy & cool doesn't appeal one little bit!

A dryish but cool September - be interesting to see how that one goes...

Average October - if ever a month screamed 'average' it's October. Only the wind can make that month interesting (oh and my birthday )

Cool November - Better cooler than warmer to keep it interesting I guess. Although personally I'm keeping my head down through that, my least favourite month of the year (rivalling January there it is these days!).

[William of Walworth]

I'm still clinging to hope that 'rainy and cool August' might conceal a few regional variations, but Northern Scotland coming off driest (as in the foreecast) doesn't look hopeful for anyone further South. I'm hoping that Glacier Point's and Blast's optimism in the Model Output thread for a better month's end doesn't get downgraded.

And that we use up plenty of that 180% of rain for August in the next 36 hours or few days ... get it over with!

Apart from wanting a pleasant/Indian summer-like first half of September (which is at least possible, maybe likely even, even with modest temperatures) I'm pretty laid back about anything from late September onwards. Whatever gets thrown at us ...

[damianslaw]

Suggests a preety unsettled August is on the way with low pressure anchored close to the shores of the country courtesy of a more southerly tracking jet hence why the south will see above average rainfall relative to the north. Only temporary ridges of bright weather look likely.. not good.

Liking the autumn forecast suggests a very seasonal one, with no unseasonable warmth something that we had got very used in recent years although last year was more seasonal than 2005/2006.

[Bottesford]

Apart from wanting a pleasant/Indian summer-like first half of September (which is at least possible, maybe likely even, even with modest temperatures) I'm pretty laid back about anything from late September onwards. Whatever gets thrown at us ...

I'm the same really. Warm/sunny weather into autumn is certainly always welcome but I don't whinge too much if I don't get it. I'm always most attentive of the models late April to mid Sept when the weather conditions most affect daily life and the persuit of fun! In winter you're confined to indoors mostly anyway - 9c a drizzly and 3c and drizzly are much the same except one hurts your hands and the other doesn't.