Jump to content
Winter
Local
Radar
Snow?
IGNORED

Tropical Storm Kammuri


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Posted

20080804.0757.gms6.x.vis2km.10WNONAME.30kts-1000mb-195N-1181E.100pc.jpg

My little nephew Oliver, just arrived in the world in HK (Hi Oliver!), so this should be a nice start to his life!

Likely to turn into a significant tropical cylone in the next 4 to 6 hours. wp102008.08080400.gif

  • Replies 20
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Posted
Storm Alert issued at 4 Aug, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression 10W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Hong Kong

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Yup, TD10W formed in the early hours and has now strengthened into a tropical storm with winds of 35kts. To be honest, 10W isn't looking all that impressive at the moment, banding is good but convection over the centre is limited. The storm is forcast to continue west-northwestwards along the periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the north and northeast. This will bring 10W inland near Hong Kong around 72hrs time. 10W is expected to quickly intensify over warm waters, low shear and very good equatorward outflow. Lower level convergence and upper level divergence is allowing convection to gradually form near the centre as unstable air rises, and this trend needs to continue if 10W is going to strengthen anywhere near as fast as what the JTWC are saying. Could make typhoon status prior to landfall.

Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Posted

JTWC has updated the track and it is now likely to make landfall closer to HK.

Unfortunately no good sat passes recently to see its interior.

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Posted
Storm Alert issued at 4 Aug, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm 10W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Hong Kong

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 48 hours

Macau

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Posted

TD 10W has now been named as Typhoon Kammuri (I have requested the thread title be changed). Track is still much as it was before, but it has lost some intensity with winds now peaking at 70knts at tau 24 ...

20080804.2343.f16.x.91hw.10WNONAME.35kts-996mb-202N-1159E.55pc.jpg

As was mentioned before, convection near the center is still fairly poor and no defined eye. Banding is still there as SS mentioned earlier. Will have to be some very rapid development here.

Some f the outer bands hitting HK Now (see radar above)

Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Posted

... oops my bad, it is Tropical Storm Kammuri, not a typhoon just yet!

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Posted

you jumped the gun their mate :lol:

Storm Alert issued at 5 Aug, 2008 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KAMMURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Hong Kong

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Yes, Kammuri is now unlikely to make typhoon status, not impossible, but unlikely. Kammuri has always struggled with developing convection over the centre, and as a result, strengthening has been slow. Kammuri is still a broad system taking it's time to fully consolidate, time which is doesn't really have. Kammuri has wobbled northwestwards overnight and thus landfall is expected to occur sooner, perhaps as soon as 36hrs. This means Kammuri has even less time over favourable waters and given the sprawling nature of the storm, it's unlikely to make typhoon status. Instead, the JTWC peak Kammuri at 50kts.

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Look at the size of Kammuri, almost fills up the entire South China sea! Definitely a big rainmaker this one!

xxirgms5bbm.jpg

Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Posted

Yep and she\s finally beginning to show SOME organisation, but too little too late me thinks. Still little central convection

20080805.1004.f17.x.composite.10WKAMMURI.xxxkts-xxxxmb-203N-1155E.54pc.jpg

And looks like a lot of rain over HK on the radar.

My little brother tells me that they (the officials) actually lock everyone inside during these storms and the city basically shuts down ... if you have ever been to HK, you will know what a remarkable sight that must be!

Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Posted

Well the lastest sat pass (good coverage) shows just how poorly organised this storm is. A pity really, was such a large storm, with good potential for severity but ran out of time to get organised. This is good for HK though and surrounding areas. They might be on red or black rain alert down there right now, but at least they wont be blown away!

Look at the 85GHz scan ... Basically ZERO convection near the center ... compare that to Edouard.

20080805.1048.f15.x.composite.10WKAMMURI.xxxkts-xxxxmb-203N-1155E.85pc.jpg

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Kammuri is much more compact now with deep convection over the centre and good banding features, particularly in the southern quadrant. I would put it at about 50kts right now. Not far off landfall now, so time is running out fast for any more intensification, though this is possible before land interaction hinders development later tonight.

post-1820-1217975471_thumb.jpg

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Posted

what a beast!

Storm Alert issued at 5 Aug, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KAMMURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Hong Kong

probability for TS is 90% currently

Macau

probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Posted

It looked more compact on the sat image, but it has now hit land to the west of HK as expected and will reapidly disipate.

Little Brother in HK has reported T8 flag raised all morning 80km/h sustained winds and HK has been shut down. Cathay has suspended all flights as have other carriers. Flag likely to be lowered to T3 soon

Still a lot of rain around, and I would assume the red, and possibly black rain flag will be raised

20080806.0730.gms6.x.wv1km.10WKAMMURI.xxxkts-xxxxmb-215N-1129E.100pc.jpg

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Posted
torm Alert issued at 6 Aug, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KAMMURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Macau

probability for TS is 100% currently

Hong Kong

probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)

probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for TS is 75% currently

Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)

probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)

probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Posted

has disrupted Olympic preparations of the British

Storm Alert issued at 6 Aug, 2008 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm KAMMURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)

probability for TS is 85% currently

Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)

probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)

probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Posted

Yes, absolutely tragic :lol: I guess it just goes to show that sometimes the most dangerous storms do not necessarily need to be the most powerful ones. :(

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...