UK and North west Europe - Climate change

[pyrotech]

May i start the great debate.

I have studdied the weather paterns and Gulf stream over many years and i believe we could have a very different future to that forcast.

Over the last 25 years subtle changes have come from the gulf stream andweather patterns have coincided with the changes.

May i explain

The actual path has changed and the velocity has changed probably due to receding ice to our north and the excess fresh water in that northern area.

This has slowed the sinking off the water and so slowing the stream

in the mid 1980's this slowing increased warm waters in the northern atlantic West of Northern Europe

This period of time then gave ferocious storms that battered the West of Europe and UK

Warm waters give weather systems energy as well as the many other factors including the jet stream.

The atlantic temperature also along with many other factors alters the Jet stream path.

The following years also saw a rapid decline in snowfall at low altitudes and this continued until 2001

Since 2001 Snowfall has increased slightly at low levels in Southwest UK areas, i believe this is the start of a very slow turn.

The Scenario now is that Warm waters will increase in mid atlantic as it takes longer to disipate in the north, The Far North should now cool faster in Winter months.

With weather coming from south west in summer these warm waters should allow more damp , cloudy humid weather to hit UK. Flooding to now become more likely in Summer than Winter.

Weather from Southwest in Winter will give mild wet weather but with any slightly Northwestern weather we should gradually increase the chance of SNOW.

The question remains how far south will the warm waters stop, If far enough and stream slows considerably then we could become as cold as Canada in Winter.

The Jet stream is marginally effected by Temperatures of the Atlantic and it moves further south in summer than normal on more days than normal.

Of course there are so many factors to take into account, The sunspot cycle ( currently at its lowest part) and our human influence.

I certainly am not saying we have not caused this damage, just that the predictions for the future may be very wrong.

Cold winters will fluctuate and not nessisarilly colder year upon year but i believe the long term trend will slowly downwards, As for Summers well they will get warmer but not sunnier or nicer. Will the ice in north pole suddenly start to develop again?

Any way if any one wants links to any of the above ( sunspots - space weather, Gulf Stream or jet stream) i will add them here on request.

I appreciate any comment for or against my comments, hope this is a start of a interesting debate.

Thanks

Please can we make this forum interesting by only sensible comments so we can share thoughts on this subject.

[jethro]

Could you please supply links for changes in gulf stream and jet stream.

I've lived in the South West (NE Somerset) for the last 11 years, at 194m not particularly low lying, and I can categorically say snowfall has not increased. In those 11 years we've had snow (3inches or so) on 4th April 2000 - moved house that day hence remembering date. Prior to that, a couple of dustings (sneezed into a bag of icing sugar type coverings). Since 2000, one occasion I think in 2002/2003 where we had 3-4inches, since then two very minor dustings. Last year nothing, year before, nothing.

[acbrixton]

Pyrotech, in addition to the links requested by Jethro:

1. please set out your evidence for your assertion that from 2001 onwards the south west has seen a slight increase in snowfall at low levels;

2. the assertion that our winters could "become as cold as Canada" is, I am afraid, literally meaningless: Canada is a vast country and, for example, the winter climates of Vancouver, Montreal or St.Johns differ hugely one from another. Which part of Canada did you have in mind?

3. have you read the article by Dr Richard Seagar in 'American Scientist' [July-August 2006] "The Source of Europe's Mild Climate"? I will precis when I have time.

regards

ACB

[Nick L]

I don't buy the Gulf Stream theory at all. If the Gulf Stream is weakening, then why are we getting consistently above average temperatures? The past decade has seen very little snowfall here.

[pyrotech]

I don't buy the Gulf Stream theory at all. If the Gulf Stream is weakening, then why are we getting consistently above average temperatures? The past decade has seen very little snowfall here.

Hi all,

Sorry been a while before getting back to this, had a baby boy and obviously family take precedence.

But i am back now

firstly the link to the gulf stream

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/anim.shtml

|Jet stream is at

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/jetstream.asp

The proof of snowfall falling since early eighties is there for everyone to see.

The proof that last four years have seen steady slow increase is harder to show and one place in south can differ from another.

Cardiff and Mid wales have seen a increase, cardiff from no snow 1996 - 2002 then snow on ground for at least afew hours every year since.

I am not a scientist but looking at the data above and sea temp anomalies i see a change coming.

My future forcast runs with it

warmer wetter summers with devastating floods

damp cool winters with a progression of heavier snowfalls, most short in duration for lying snow.

slowing of gulf stream caused severe wind storms late eighties. due to pooling of warm water in atlantic.

Now we are at stage where water will cool around UK , west and north and any weather from that direction will have less effects of heat from atlantic in future but from south west will be from very warm mid atlantic water with alot of percipitation.

It would seem that the gulf stream effects the jet stream but this is far from proved.

What ever the arguement it is clear that jet stream has changed quite dramatically this year and Gulf stream over the last 15 years.

Is the cold spell forcast for end of this month part of this ( coldest 850 temp since 80s at least for October i believe) or is it due to the solar wind ( the sun is giving off less particles than anytime in last 50 years) Or is it just normal weather set up giving unusual signs.

Well who Knows? Any flood today is attributed to GLOBAL WARMING. Yet we had floods through out time. Its the frequency of these events that actually will show climate change. Nature will throw many anomalies into the mix over next few years. Maybe i will be proved wrong in future, but my studdies do show that the sea temps will drop fast in winter due to changes in gulf stream. Nature will automatically put a change to correct the changes made by humans, not because it thinks and acts, but because its part of the puzzle and when for any reason the puzzle is changed it has wider effects.

we may be to blame but what ever reason the sea temps are warming and air too. Ice melts, currents change, Warm water stops flowing north, Cold returns. A natural phenomenen.

Mother nature is more powerful than some people give credit too. What has caused water around the UK to be so warm is the ice caused by old mother nature, take away the ice you eventually take the current of warm water, well and truly one links to other.

You take away the warm water current and ice returns.

The oldest and most effective thermostat in the world.

Many agree with this and even more do not, I believe i can see this as the future the data screams this too me, but many in the field do not, i am not saying i must be right 100% but i think all needs to be explored.

For the record i believe in my study and data, but then again i would, wouldn't i !!!!!!!

[Gray-Wolf]

I do believe in the power of Mother Nature to balance out differences in the environment and so find it difficult, in a warming world, to believe she would leave the equatorial Atlantic to warm without attempting to 'balance out' that imbalance. By focusing on one tiny sliver of ocean do you feel you may fall foul to missing the bigger picture?

Even if the 'Gulf Stream' were to fail completely heat from the tropics would still continue to migrate (north and south) to balance out global temperature distribution. I agree to the fact that 'Global warming' does not mean blistering summers and loss of rainfall for all areas, to me more energy in the system (extra heat) will lead to a more 'vigorous' version of the models that exist today with more dynamic weather resulting (as we see with the increase of Arctic storms over the past half a century......the poles being the areas to experience the most dramatic warming).

[pyrotech]

I do believe in the power of Mother Nature to balance out differences in the environment and so find it difficult, in a warming world, to believe she would leave the equatorial Atlantic to warm without attempting to 'balance out' that imbalance. By focusing on one tiny sliver of ocean do you feel you may fall foul to missing the bigger picture?

Even if the 'Gulf Stream' were to fail completely heat from the tropics would still continue to migrate (north and south) to balance out global temperature distribution. I agree to the fact that 'Global warming' does not mean blistering summers and loss of rainfall for all areas, to me more energy in the system (extra heat) will lead to a more 'vigorous' version of the models that exist today with more dynamic weather resulting (as we see with the increase of Arctic storms over the past half a century......the poles being the areas to experience the most dramatic warming).

Hi

Do not really think i am missing bigger picture

Firstly this part of forum is only for UK and western europe, and this effects that area more than any others. Secondly i realise that long term trends are for warming globally but the effect of a slowing gulf stream or altering of its course will bring temperatures in North sea ( north west atlantic) down by more than rising air temperatures and could happen much quicker.

You are correct about the storms intensifiying, both in polar regions and in mid atlantic where the water from the gulf pools. This will cause deeper low pressure and increased percipitation. For snow lovers i can see this percipitation with any Northerly winds NW NE or N bringing snow due to the cooling of north sea, any systems from south will have more heat and moisture. less positive for snow lovers is the snow is likely to lay on the ground only for a short period.

Thanks for your comments and constructive thoughts, really appreciate them.

[Rustynailer]

Hi Pyrotech.

What is your view on this July and August's volcanic activity in the Aleutians having an influence on the weather this winter?

The volcanic gas/particles is still there in the upper atmosphere giving us vivid sunsets/rises (if we get the chance to see the sun!)

IMO we (Europe) will have a colder winter than usual this year because of this gas/particles.

Perhaps mother nature has more wild cards to throw in the mix B)

Regards,

Russ

Would be interested in your view too Gray-wolf, TA.

Edited November 2, 2008 by Rustynailer

[Snowyowl9]

Hi all,

The proof of snowfall falling since early eighties is there for everyone to see.

Cardiff and Mid wales have seen a increase, cardiff from no snow 1996 - 2002 then snow on ground for at least afew hours every year since.

I am not a scientist but looking at the data above and sea temp anomalies i see a change coming.

My future forcast runs with it

warmer wetter summers with devastating floods

damp cool winters with a progression of heavier snowfalls, most short in duration for lying snow.

slowing of gulf stream caused severe wind storms late eighties. due to pooling of warm water in atlantic.

Now we are at stage where water will cool around UK , west and north and any weather from that direction will have less effects of heat from atlantic in future but from south west will be from very warm mid atlantic water with alot of percipitation.

It would seem that the gulf stream effects the jet stream but this is far from proved.

What ever the arguement it is clear that jet stream has changed quite dramatically this year and Gulf stream over the last 15 years.

Is the cold spell forcast for end of this month part of this ( coldest 850 temp since 80s at least for October i believe) or is it due to the solar wind ( the sun is giving off less particles than anytime in last 50 years) Or is it just normal weather set up giving unusual signs.

A very interesting topic I have to say.

Yes as the late 80`s early 90`s including 1993 we did have the biggest wave of the atlantic storms, since them somehow they`ve got less and less except really for 2006/07 as severe as anything like them something I`ve noticed over all these years.

And if these wet summers are anything to go by which have been absent really since the 1990`s with much longer dryer spells, as this decade has been one of the wettest I`ve seen the jet stream going further south in more recent summers, when it would normally go further north 2006 was the exception to the rule but even that august was completely unsettled and nothing to the early 1990`s /1995.

Seems plausible to me something is changing in the gulf stream with more fresh water coming into the atlantic cooling it more to the north it can`t be helping.

But we`ll see what happens it`s all very interesting our climate nobody knows what`ll happen exactly in the future which is why we have these topics and makes it exciting.

But each decade weather is certainly different since the 70`s still throwing surprises.

This cold october 850 temp was colder than 1974 so the coldest since perhaps the early 20th century.

[Chris Knight]

Bob Tisdale's blog has an article on storminess variation from the Armagh record

The conclusions of the latter are:

Very significant variations in storminess have been recorded over the

last 200 years for Armagh observatory despite the sheltered inland

nature of the site. This includes evidence for increased storminess at

the end of the Little Ice Age. However, there is no evidence of

increased storminess over the last 30 years. When similar records from

other Irish stations are examined, there is some evidence of a possible

northwards movement of the storm tracks that have affected the island

of Ireland over the last 30 years.

Extensive climate/meteorology archive data back to 1794 are available at the Armagh observatory site

[SP1986]

One thing I do not believe is that the gulf stream will stop, reasons being is that even if fresher water entered the moderate lattitudes, the rate of evaporation would inevitably lead to more salinization *especially* if high pressure was to become more frequent as a result of freshening waters, or so climatic theory would suggest. So therefore in my opinion there is very little chance of Europe being plunged into cooler climates except in the normal cyclical changes you can expect over every few years. It will not take long for fresh water to be 'converted' into a. either salinized water due to strong evaporation or b. displacement of fresh water over areas producing heavier rainfalls, and more rain distribution for Europe/Western Asia. I do agree re: more rain, I don't necessarily agree that it will become cooler.

[Gray-Wolf]

I do agree re: more rain, I don't necessarily agree that it will become cooler.

unless you are sat under the cloud generating the rain that is!!! the number of July/Aug days we suffered 16 or 17c temps where all around had 20/21's...a combination of loss of direct sun and airs dragged down from aloft (with the rain) do tend to peg back temps. Not what the 'ice age now' folk expect but still disappointing!!!

[SP1986]

unless you are sat under the cloud generating the rain that is!!! the number of July/Aug days we suffered 16 or 17c temps where all around had 20/21's...a combination of loss of direct sun and airs dragged down from aloft (with the rain) do tend to peg back temps. Not what the 'ice age now' folk expect but still disappointing!!!

Yes it will get cooler in the respect that the potential temperature will be lost on those days were we get high rainfall. But this depends on the size, distribution and frequences of complex systems in such situations, could it be that we experience more warm fronts in association with what we call zonality, if so, perhaps temperatures of 20C are not so out of the question, or alternatively will such conditions spawn more complex systems where we still have a variety of temperatures, due to warm, cold and occluded front frequency.

However in the next few summers, I can imagine similar circumstances, where those 15's and 16's are commonplace, but like you say this is down to lack of solar input, not an impending ice age of doom.

Gulf stream shut down is fuelled by loss of fresh water which even at time gone past have been restored to salt water in a matter of decades, and also a levelling of the baseline temperature, and that has equated to speculation of an ice age, which if you look at it from the middle, is perhaps more extreme than contentions of runaway global warming..

I'm perfectly happy sitting in this slightly warmer, but not extreme environment*

*In comparison to the 1961-90/1991-70 averages

[PeteG]

If my Geography lessons back in the Ice Age (that's the early 1960's) were right the Gulf Stream is the outflow of water from the Gulf of Mexico between Florida and Cuba and is the result of the trade winds either side of the Equator pushing surface water westwards into the southern part of the Gulf, helped by the shape of S America.

As long as the Trade Winds continue to blow all that water has got to go somewhere and the Gulf Stream will also continue.

Whether the Gulf Stream Drift which is what warms W Europe stays put or ends up going somewhere else is another matter- according to my ancient textbooks in the (real) Ice Age it went to Spain and Portugal although I don't recall any evidence for this being given.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think that the other thing about the last time the 'gulf stream' wasn't playing nicely it was the final dramatic meltdown of the North American (and associated) ice sheet. Far ,far, far greater inputs of freshwater than the collapse of Greenlands ice dome will provide.

I'm not going to suggest that the freshwater we will generate from ice sheets/glaciers will not have short term impacts on things ,just not the way the Laurentide disintegration did!

[pyrotech]

Hi Pyrotech.

What is your view on this July and August's volcanic activity in the Aleutians having an influence on the weather this winter?

The volcanic gas/particles is still there in the upper atmosphere giving us vivid sunsets/rises (if we get the chance to see the sun!)

IMO we (Europe) will have a colder winter than usual this year because of this gas/particles.

Perhaps mother nature has more wild cards to throw in the mix

Regards,

Russ

Would be interested in your view too Gray-wolf, TA.

i think its all very relevant, volcanic eruptions as well as a very low solar wind all add to a very interesting mix.

On the gulf stream and the underwater currents that keep us so warm for our latitude i do not believe the whole thing will stop, i think some think i am saying that. No i can see it slowing and changing direction thats all, it will then have the effects i have said in previous messages.

Currently the sea temp anomlies around UK are showing slightly below normal, got to agree one swallow does not make a summer but i think this will be an effect for this winter.

i also believe this will continue over next few years.

One thing worries me is that if our winters give normal rainfall then flooding could become widespread with the water table so unusualy high following summer rainfall.

Thanks everyone forsuch constructive comments on this subject, the truth is nobody is 100% certain of full effects to come, but i do believe in the data i have studdied and will continue to monitor and review. May be i will get more support as time goes on or perhaps any support will deminish. The only thing for certain is something will happen change or same.

[osmposm]

Currently the sea temp anomlies around UK are showing slightly below normal.....

Not on today's UNISYS chart they're not (though I know there are others, and they're often somewhat different):

The colours are not easy to read, but they show sea temps around the UK as predominantly 0.5 to 1.0 above average. There is a small area to the SW that is just below, but that's all.

Ossie

Edited November 12, 2008 by osmposm

[osmposm]

Yes, just checked two others, and it's really very confusing.

NOAA shows it (yesterday's chart) as about 50:50 above/below around our coasts, the cool perhaps slightly predominating:

While today's NCODA one shows it almost all on the cool side, as you describe, Pyro:

Not for the first time I don't know what to think about these differing measurements/analyses!

Edited November 12, 2008 by osmposm

[pottyprof]

Not for the first time I don't know what to think about these differing measurements/analyses!

Curious isn't it?

Still, I'm sure it will be "corrected" so we can see the "real" data shortly..

Wonder why some people are so sceptical about the science?

[Chris Knight]

The trouble with comparison of temperature anomalies happens when they use different baselines, and especially when global geographic plots are used.

Imagine if the baseline included a period when there were several strong El Nino events, but only a few, weak La Nina events. I cannot find which years Unisys use for their baseline (can anyone?). However, I bet it includes 1998!

Similarly NOAA/NESDIS and NCODA must use different baselines to get different pictures. The actual baseline periods, and the global map of the baseline temperatures for any of these systems seem hard to find. If any of them use variable baselines, like mean temperature from some start date to current date, the anomaly plots are useless. I suspect they are useless anyway.

Therefore it gives us, and any other analysts who want to prove a point, a range of different figures to illustrate our views. The question is, which cherry to pick?

[pyrotech]

The trouble with comparison of temperature anomalies happens when they use different baselines, and especially when global geographic plots are used.

Imagine if the baseline included a period when there were several strong El Nino events, but only a few, weak La Nina events. I cannot find which years Unisys use for their baseline (can anyone?). However, I bet it includes 1998!

Similarly NOAA/NESDIS and NCODA must use different baselines to get different pictures. The actual baseline periods, and the global map of the baseline temperatures for any of these systems seem hard to find. If any of them use variable baselines, like mean temperature from some start date to current date, the anomaly plots are useless. I suspect they are useless anyway.

Therefore it gives us, and any other analysts who want to prove a point, a range of different figures to illustrate our views. The question is, which cherry to pick?

yes i agree, but i have been using the same one for years and can see the difference showing on that, So at least the data i am using is consistant. This year the North Sea around UK and many parts of france is well below for the time of month. It might sound small (1c) but in sea temp terms that is huge. Snow much more likely with temf this continues into winter with a further drop below normal!

Big problem of course is how much is this to do with the north atlantic drift? Could it be the low solar energy? or just current weather patterns.

I believe from watching gulf stream changes that this pattern will continue to develop every year causing further cooling, other factors may cause a few blips on the way.

I am sure someone will argue that the sea temps around UK are lower due to our current weather. IE lack of low pressure systems moving quickly through the atlantic bringing warm sea surge towards UK.

But lets face it, thats what makes this allso interesting, all the different factors, disscussions and theories.

I look forward to the back lash

[paul tall]

We didn't have a very sunny summer, and although simplistic, there can't have been too much water warming going on.

[drgl]

yes i agree, but i have been using the same one for years and can see the difference showing on that, So at least the data i am using is consistant. This year the North Sea around UK and many parts of france is well below for the time of month. It might sound small (1c) but in sea temp terms that is huge. Snow much more likely with temf this continues into winter with a further drop below normal!

Big problem of course is how much is this to do with the north atlantic drift? Could it be the low solar energy? or just current weather patterns.

I believe from watching gulf stream changes that this pattern will continue to develop every year causing further cooling, other factors may cause a few blips on the way.

I am sure someone will argue that the sea temps around UK are lower due to our current weather. IE lack of low pressure systems moving quickly through the atlantic bringing warm sea surge towards UK.

But lets face it, thats what makes this allso interesting, all the different factors, disscussions and theories.

I look forward to the back lash

Very interesting indeed. Only time will tell i guess..........

[pyrotech]

no not a very sunny summer to warm ocean. but your slightly missing the point.

Firstly the most heat comes from Carribean from north atlantic drift and cycle of water to the poles.

There is a definite change to its rotation and this will be the effect.

Remember when flood events happened in late autumn and winter>? Well notice how that had deminished now!

Our new danger time is Summer, the effect of oceanography has been well underestimated , for the UK it is paramount.

Weather systems that are normal from the South west will now contain a lot more energy, picked up from the southern area of the north atlantic where the warm water has pooled. Winter will now offer a colder climate too us. My posts started before this winter and does something not seem diofferent to you this year as predicted.?

If ever we get a winter that gives systems of low pressure from South east north atlantic then UK will really have problems with current water tables so high after our now wet summers.

I am not having a go at anyone on here but just look at the facts. are we not right now having a cold spell not witnessed since 1980s.

Will stick my neck out for you, It will get colder and winter 2008/09 will be coldest for 10 years. Morre places will see snow, snow resorts will get record season ( taking out effect of credit crunch) Ie good sustained snow cover.

The data is there, it happening. i know i have my sceptics and it well against some scientific views but i can not see why they think this is not the effect that will happen. may be i am missing a major part of the puzzle, but as any good argument i have looked at everything i can and made my judgement, i believe in it ( thats why i posted) , Stand by it, and will hold my hands up if wrong.

But look at data sources, look at dated posts, does it start to add up?

or is it just low solar energy source?

See even i will question the results when thing happen quicker than expected!

But please reply, i want all constructive critism and any agreement as that is what this forum is designed for. i could be the hero - or the VILLAIN.

Does anyone think maybe i am on to something? or am i talking a load of twaddle? your thoughts do count but only if you post

I am a crew manager with fire service and work away so in case i do not get home before xmas have a good one what ever your views

[Chris Knight]

no not a very sunny summer to warm ocean. but your slightly missing the point.

Firstly the most heat comes from Carribean from north atlantic drift and cycle of water to the poles.

There is a definite change to its rotation and this will be the effect.

Remember when flood events happened in late autumn and winter>? Well notice how that had deminished now!

Our new danger time is Summer, the effect of oceanography has been well underestimated , for the UK it is paramount.

Weather systems that are normal from the South west will now contain a lot more energy, picked up from the southern area of the north atlantic where the warm water has pooled. Winter will now offer a colder climate too us. My posts started before this winter and does something not seem diofferent to you this year as predicted.?

If ever we get a winter that gives systems of low pressure from South east north atlantic then UK will really have problems with current water tables so high after our now wet summers.

I am not having a go at anyone on here but just look at the facts. are we not right now having a cold spell not witnessed since 1980s.

Will stick my neck out for you, It will get colder and winter 2008/09 will be coldest for 10 years. Morre places will see snow, snow resorts will get record season ( taking out effect of credit crunch) Ie good sustained snow cover.

The data is there, it happening. i know i have my sceptics and it well against some scientific views but i can not see why they think this is not the effect that will happen. may be i am missing a major part of the puzzle, but as any good argument i have looked at everything i can and made my judgement, i believe in it ( thats why i posted) , Stand by it, and will hold my hands up if wrong.

But look at data sources, look at dated posts, does it start to add up?

or is it just low solar energy source?

See even i will question the results when thing happen quicker than expected!

But please reply, i want all constructive critism and any agreement as that is what this forum is designed for. i could be the hero - or the VILLAIN.

Does anyone think maybe i am on to something? or am i talking a load of twaddle? your thoughts do count but only if you post

I am a crew manager with fire service and work away so in case i do not get home before xmas have a good one what ever your views

Fire service workers deserve better recognition and reward for their work. What's your other job, Pyro? (my son-in-law is a fireman, when he is not doing his other job )

It might be the sun, but perhaps we are just looking at climate in the wrong way.

Chess games can go through millions of different combinations of moves to arrive at a relatively small set of endpoints, and they all start at exactly the same arrangement of pieces. If the pieces could be randomly arranged at the start of the game, but the rules of movement etc., were the same, the endpoints would be no different from the standard game.

The chessboard that the climate plays on changes shape from day to day, and pawns are reborn, pieces are removed or replaced by unpredictable forces. We may be able to predict the next few moves, but the outcome is far from clear.