UK and North west Europe - Climate change

[J07]

The trouble with comparison of temperature anomalies happens when they use different baselines, and especially when global geographic plots are used.

Imagine if the baseline included a period when there were several strong El Nino events, but only a few, weak La Nina events. I cannot find which years Unisys use for their baseline (can anyone?). However, I bet it includes 1998!

Similarly NOAA/NESDIS and NCODA must use different baselines to get different pictures. The actual baseline periods, and the global map of the baseline temperatures for any of these systems seem hard to find. If any of them use variable baselines, like mean temperature from some start date to current date, the anomaly plots are useless. I suspect they are useless anyway.

Therefore it gives us, and any other analysts who want to prove a point, a range of different figures to illustrate our views. The question is, which cherry to pick?

It would be interesting to know, for sure. A first guess would be that they use similar ~30 year periods to climatological averages for weather.

However, just some basis statistics would be able to remove outlying data (or reduce its impact) such as 97/98 and 82/83 to prevent it from skewing the resulting long term mean.

Similar criticisms can be levelled at the old ice hockey chart, and how the baseline for that must be chosen as some particular mean temperature for some particular year or period. You can shift the chart up and down based on what baseline you use.

Personally, I am most interested in short term weather, and what would be most useful is SST anomaly charts where the baseline is same date but for the previous year. It would give a good idea of where things are and where they are heading compared with the previous season.

Edited December 12, 2008 by J07

[Iceberg]

yes i agree, but i have been using the same one for years and can see the difference showing on that, So at least the data i am using is consistant. This year the North Sea around UK and many parts of france is well below for the time of month. It might sound small (1c) but in sea temp terms that is huge. Snow much more likely with temf this continues into winter with a further drop below normal!

Big problem of course is how much is this to do with the north atlantic drift? Could it be the low solar energy? or just current weather patterns.

I believe from watching gulf stream changes that this pattern will continue to develop every year causing further cooling, other factors may cause a few blips on the way.

I am sure someone will argue that the sea temps around UK are lower due to our current weather. IE lack of low pressure systems moving quickly through the atlantic bringing warm sea surge towards UK.

But lets face it, thats what makes this allso interesting, all the different factors, disscussions and theories.

I look forward to the back lash

Pyro,

A 1C change to the UK waters is not really very big, particularly considering the averge kind of Year temp wise and the cold northerlies we've been getting.

The NAD can be measured using the ARGO bouys and to be honest it looks pretty normal to me, there is a build up and increase in GS Warm Eddies due to Mid Atlantic Ridging and a weaker than normal JS off the Eastern Seaboard but again nothing really strange.

Weather patterns are still following a weak La Nina, as this is indicated by the atmospheric positions in the pacific and by the PDO.

I think what's interesting is that with a negative PDO, ENSO signals that have never been above 0.0 this year and often well below, being at the bottom of a solar cycle, having no serious stratospheric cooling we are still having global months October and November being the last that have fallen in the top 10 category.

[Admiral_Bobski]

A couple of things I would like to add:

Being at the bottom of the solar cycle doesn't mean that it will be cool now. There is a time lag between solar activity and Earth's reaction to it - somewhere in the region of five to ten years - so the current solar minimum likely won't have an identifiable effect on temperatures for another few years.

(This paper suggests an approximately 10 year time lag with 95%+ correlation, though states clearly that their analysis only goes up to about 1975.)

Also, and I have said this before, why shouldn't we still be getting "top ten" warm months and years at the moment? If, for the sake of argument, temperatures reached a peak a few years back and are now starting to plateau or fall then current years and months are almost guaranteed to fall in the top ten warmest, aren't they? If you preheat your oven to 200C then turn it off, would you expect it to still be warm five minutes later? Of course you would!

:lol:

CB

[Iceberg]

Good Afternoon MR CB.

A lag of 10 years is rather unbelievable when the cycles themselves are only 10-12 years peak to peak. see below.

As to the Oven anology, we both know that it's not really valid. it takes the atmosphere 2 months to heat up/cool down from the more extreme summer and winter solar minimums.

[Admiral_Bobski]

Good Afternoon MR CB.

A lag of 10 years is rather unbelievable when the cycles themselves are only 10-12 years peak to peak. see below.

As to the Oven anology, we both know that it's not really valid. it takes the atmosphere 2 months to heat up/cool down from the more extreme summer and winter solar minimums.

Hi 'Berg!

Unbelievable? That's a pretty subjective term, isn't it? Just because something appears unbelievable does not mean that it isn't true - the length of the solar cycle is irrelevant to the delay in the Earth's response.

The oven analogy is perfectly valid since we're talking global averages. When it warms up in NH Summer it cools down in SH Winter - on average the Earth's global temperature remains roughly the same year round.

CB

[Iceberg]

Yes but 99% of the heat from the previous summer is lost in the autumn, no oven's behave like this. Yes the NH is hot when the SH is cold and vice versa but that's because they heat up and down during the seasons not because the heat is transfered from from hemi to the other.

On another note and SC reminded me about this talking about the sun again. Up until the 80's there was a goodish correlation between the global temps and the sun, now there isn't so the heat absorbsion method would have to be new. Finally the last solar min was 10-12 years ago so if there was a 10 year lag then we should have below average global temps, again we don't.

Again people sight the massive El nino of 98 as storing up heat, however again this heat is not near the surface and hasn't been for most of the 2000's evidenced by the fact that the ENSO signal has not gone postive this year and temps have remained netural to negative.

[Admiral_Bobski]

Yes but 99% of the heat from the previous summer is lost in the autumn, no oven's behave like this. Yes the NH is hot when the SH is cold and vice versa but that's because they heat up and down during the seasons not because the heat is transfered from from hemi to the other.

On another note and SC reminded me about this talking about the sun again. Up until the 80's there was a goodish correlation between the global temps and the sun, now there isn't so the heat absorbsion method would have to be new. Finally the last solar min was 10-12 years ago so if there was a 10 year lag then we should have below average global temps, again we don't.

Again people sight the massive El nino of 98 as storing up heat, however again this heat is not near the surface and hasn't been for most of the 2000's evidenced by the fact that the ENSO signal has not gone postive this year and temps have remained netural to negative.

Okay, perhaps the oven analogy is an oversimplification to an extent, though I was not talking specifically about ambient atmospheric temperatures - some bad wording on my part. What I had intended to suggest was that SH and NH temperatures balance out (roughly) over a year, and it is the excess stored heat in the complete Earth System that "warms the planet". However, as I have pointed out before, if temperatures are consistently high then we're not likely to see below average temperatures until the baseline has fallen to a more average level.

I did actually mention that the analysis in that paper only went as far as about 1975, and I accept that the seemingly apparent correlation between solar activity and Earth temperature appears to weaken post-1980. However, I have argued before that the last three solar cycles have been consistently high - higher than virtually any other solar cycle on record, and far higher than any other group of three cycles on record - and I have suggested in the past that maybe the consistently high solar output is behind post-1980 warming (in much the same way that a flame of constant strength can warm a pan of water to boiling point). Although this might be regarded as pure speculation on my part, and I don't think I have seen this phenomenon mentioned in any scientific papers (yet!), I have seen nothing to the contrary to rebut the idea.

CB

Edited December 15, 2008 by Captain_Bobski

[pottyprof]

Yes but 99% of the heat from the previous summer is lost in the autumn, no oven's behave like this. Yes the NH is hot when the SH is cold and vice versa but that's because they heat up and down during the seasons not because the heat is transfered from from hemi to the other.

But there is mixing........

[stewfox]

May i start the great debate.

Flooding to now become more likely in Summer than Winter.

.

I appreciate any comment for or against my comments, hope this is a start of a interesting debate.

Please can we make this forum interesting by only sensible comments so we can share thoughts on this subject.

I think anything like this is worthy of debate because if we know one thing the weather isn't fixed.

We have had of course had flash flooding last weekend but that doesn't wash away the debate.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/dec/13/f...rgency-services

I am no model expert but it would appear they struggle to 'predict' weather patterns outside the last 20 years norm.

Edited December 15, 2008 by stewfox

[pyrotech]

no not a very sunny summer to warm ocean. but your slightly missing the point.

Firstly the most heat comes from Carribean from north atlantic drift and cycle of water to the poles.

There is a definite change to its rotation and this will be the effect.

Remember when flood events happened in late autumn and winter>? Well notice how that had deminished now!

Our new danger time is Summer, the effect of oceanography has been well underestimated , for the UK it is paramount.

Weather systems that are normal from the South west will now contain a lot more energy, picked up from the southern area of the north atlantic where the warm water has pooled. Winter will now offer a colder climate too us. My posts started before this winter and does something not seem diofferent to you this year as predicted.?

If ever we get a winter that gives systems of low pressure from South east north atlantic then UK will really have problems with current water tables so high after our now wet summers.

I am not having a go at anyone on here but just look at the facts. are we not right now having a cold spell not witnessed since 1980s.

Will stick my neck out for you, It will get colder and winter 2008/09 will be coldest for 10 years. Morre places will see snow, snow resorts will get record season ( taking out effect of credit crunch) Ie good sustained snow cover.

The data is there, it happening. i know i have my sceptics and it well against some scientific views but i can not see why they think this is not the effect that will happen. may be i am missing a major part of the puzzle, but as any good argument i have looked at everything i can and made my judgement, i believe in it ( thats why i posted) , Stand by it, and will hold my hands up if wrong.

But look at data sources, look at dated posts, does it start to add up?

or is it just low solar energy source?

See even i will question the results when thing happen quicker than expected!

But please reply, i want all constructive critism and any agreement as that is what this forum is designed for. i could be the hero - or the VILLAIN.

Does anyone think maybe i am on to something? or am i talking a load of twaddle? your thoughts do count but only if you post

I am a crew manager with fire service and work away so in case i do not get home before xmas have a good one what ever your views

Hi all, well you can read my post that was put up on here in Dec this year 12th.

Did i forcast coldest winter for 10 years, i put my neck on the line and put it in black and white, already we are seeing a sustained cold spell and this is against the met office original forcast of above avg CET January. They revised that too below recently.

So if any one was totally against my climate change predictions please take another look.

It takes a bit of guts to put my neck on the line and make a forcast more than two weeks ahead, however i also think i must show that i believe in what i am saying and put it down for others to see.

So hopefully after this we can reset the data and look again at what climate change could mean for the UK.

Have a great COLD New Year with snow to follow !

[Iceberg]

A brave forecast but it's a weather forecast not a climate forecast.

Cheers

[pyrotech]

A brave forecast but it's a weather forecast not a climate forecast.

Cheers

yes but i have posted my climate forecast and reasons before in this thread, but you will have to read through to get that, i then gave reasons why climate change would effect our weather this year and made that forcast. I also added other things into the mix to add to the debate inc Solar cycle and lack of particles now coming off the sun - just to increase debate and play devils advocate.

the forecast was to prove my point.

takes a bit of guts to post that for everyone to see and stick my neck on the line, i hope some people would agree.

Any way not here to argue but look forward to any debate.

Enjoy your COLD COLD xmas break and have a 80s style New year

[MR EXTREMES]

yes but i have posted my climate forecast and reasons before in this thread, but you will have to read through to get that, i then gave reasons why climate change would effect our weather this year and made that forcast. I also added other things into the mix to add to the debate inc Solar cycle and lack of particles now coming off the sun - just to increase debate and play devils advocate.

the forecast was to prove my point.

takes a bit of guts to post that for everyone to see and stick my neck on the line, i hope some people would agree.

Any way not here to argue but look forward to any debate.

Enjoy your COLD COLD xmas break and have a 80s style New year

good post totally agree aswell and you are now week or so fingers crossed to a great forecast it all makes sence and climate drives weather and this is why forecasters more so for seasonal forecast take into account climate change.

global warming no climate change is what id say is correct term.

and things are changing sorry i will post what i think in a proper reply in awhile.

[MR EXTREMES]

There are many things that drive climate on our planet just like all over the solar system some planet have bigger or lesser magnectic fields than others some are hotter and colder than others but all have one thing in common there climate is driven mostly but not totally by the sun some other planets have diffrent material make up aswell ect ect which in turn would make them warm more or cool more.

our planet is made up of lots of materials that contain gas that can be released into the atmosphere this can either cool or warm the planet like the others what is does have is lots of water the oceans along with the sun are what really make our climate.

so high solar activity more heat collected into the oceans and land.

on to snow and ice this defects the suns rays but this would make no diffrence if we have some pretty sustain prolonged warming then ice will melt like it has been happening.

this has happened before time and time again but its also cooled over and over again.

and in one point in earths history the whole planet was covered in ice.

so ok then what would make this happen well we never had sunspot data or ocean data either but we have the tec now although this is still well in its early days.

but there is growing evidence that salinty is building near the tropics this could have a major effect on the ocean conveyor perhapes cutting it off or slowing it down around the tropics area.

but it also could be carring warmer salty waters towards the artic region this causing fast melts although no evidence on this and 2008 artic ice has made a recovery.

but what is fact is in the last 50years the conveyor has decreased by 30/40% i strongly feel this could well decrease or stop futher perhapes not in my lifetime but in my childrens lifetime due to its desruption and i feel this may have stopped before but this is only 1 theory.

the other is sunspot activity and particles in our atmosphere this and last year have shown a maked decrease in sunspot activity which is currently still very uncertain although nasa has stated march time will be pick up point in activity.

although there has been slight activity and unrest between astromnomers some saying that it will continue very low indeed some saying normal some even saying high this remains to be seen as was stated in a earlier post there has been a few years of high activity and it would seem it ties in with somewhat warmer climate as the last couple of years have been different with low activity and cooler climate overall this would seem the sun has decided to have a rest but we will just have to wait and see how long this will last.

as for particles there needs to be some more studies on this because this is known to refect a lot more sunlight back into space other possibles volcanic magnetic earths orbit ect ect.

what is clear global temps have held steady or even fallen overall in the last couple of years some saying since 1998 im not so sure about that but i myself think the global switch has switched.

i would like to say although a novice to all this i remember the winters of 80s and 90s i have noticed in winters things have been different things changed to fast in my view to call in the dreded human global warming but.

i do agree with climate change and i dont not agree with us being the cause and i think human race is a tiny blip compard to the power of climate and our planet and our sun.

i think the trend is going to get colder in years to come sorry about my sketchy detail and my very bad spelling lol as i said im a novice but be into weather and climate since i was in my teens.

its just my thoughts cheers people

[pyrotech]

There are many things that drive climate on our planet just like all over the solar system some planet have bigger or lesser magnectic fields than others some are hotter and colder than others but all have one thing in common there climate is driven mostly but not totally by the sun some other planets have diffrent material make up aswell ect ect which in turn would make them warm more or cool more.

our planet is made up of lots of materials that contain gas that can be released into the atmosphere this can either cool or warm the planet like the others what is does have is lots of water the oceans along with the sun are what really make our climate.

so high solar activity more heat collected into the oceans and land.

on to snow and ice this defects the suns rays but this would make no diffrence if we have some pretty sustain prolonged warming then ice will melt like it has been happening.

this has happened before time and time again but its also cooled over and over again.

and in one point in earths history the whole planet was covered in ice.

so ok then what would make this happen well we never had sunspot data or ocean data either but we have the tec now although this is still well in its early days.

but there is growing evidence that salinty is building near the tropics this could have a major effect on the ocean conveyor perhapes cutting it off or slowing it down around the tropics area.

but it also could be carring warmer salty waters towards the artic region this causing fast melts although no evidence on this and 2008 artic ice has made a recovery.

but what is fact is in the last 50years the conveyor has decreased by 30/40% i strongly feel this could well decrease or stop futher perhapes not in my lifetime but in my childrens lifetime due to its desruption and i feel this may have stopped before but this is only 1 theory.

the other is sunspot activity and particles in our atmosphere this and last year have shown a maked decrease in sunspot activity which is currently still very uncertain although nasa has stated march time will be pick up point in activity.

although there has been slight activity and unrest between astromnomers some saying that it will continue very low indeed some saying normal some even saying high this remains to be seen as was stated in a earlier post there has been a few years of high activity and it would seem it ties in with somewhat warmer climate as the last couple of years have been different with low activity and cooler climate overall this would seem the sun has decided to have a rest but we will just have to wait and see how long this will last.

as for particles there needs to be some more studies on this because this is known to refect a lot more sunlight back into space other possibles volcanic magnetic earths orbit ect ect.

what is clear global temps have held steady or even fallen overall in the last couple of years some saying since 1998 im not so sure about that but i myself think the global switch has switched.

i would like to say although a novice to all this i remember the winters of 80s and 90s i have noticed in winters things have been different things changed to fast in my view to call in the dreded human global warming but.

i do agree with climate change and i dont not agree with us being the cause and i think human race is a tiny blip compard to the power of climate and our planet and our sun.

i think the trend is going to get colder in years to come sorry about my sketchy detail and my very bad spelling lol as i said im a novice but be into weather and climate since i was in my teens.

its just my thoughts cheers people

excellent post.

could not agree more

This is exactly what i am saying and that even a drop of 1c in ocean temps around the uK will have a huge effect. Others think not but how often have we had marginal snow events that end up as sleet or rain. that weather coming over an ocean 1c lower will have a huge effect. Not that i believe 1c is all it will drop but that is what is happening right now.

The initial thoughts on climate change has been called global warming, Only a fool would not have looked at what effects that would have on a worldwide scale, and what one effect of it would do to another area ( Knock on effect)

your spot on with the data i have collected and i really believe that the effects we both talk about will occur in the long term

Thanks again for a full and informative reply.

Am i just happy as your singing from the same hymn book? No but i am sure some sceptic will say that so i just beat them too it.

[pyrotech]

So where are we almost a year later?

Another poor summer for most of the UK, the Southeast having done pretty good but the Northwest pretty poor.

The jet stream moved Southwards and caused a washout for many areas and a North - South split became the norm.

A dry September for most and again the South did best. Now Autumn is truly here as we enter head into October.

So whats the winter ahead going to be like from a climate change perspective and what has changed in the last 12 months?

Firstly global emmisions of CO2 have not been reduced so any change from that cause should be not to huge. What has changed is the prediction of the solar minimum ending and a return to active solar sun spot activity.

The experts got this one wrong and we are currently in a very deep solar min. The effects on the climate should now really start to be felt and so i include the reasons why this is signifigant to our climate. Why now and not when the minimum started? How it effects us, and likely effects.

Firstly to show the lag in time between the minimum and the resulting temperatures.

The Lag is around 2 years and the best explanation for why is its an accumalative effect much like the summer and winter in the UK.

The longest day in the Northern hemisphere is around 21st of June. This is not when temperatures peak that comes almost 5-6 weeks later.

Same with winter, shortest day is close to christmas yet our coldest temperatures come later in january or february.

Its the same with solar max and minimums, but the cycle and prossess is much bigger.

The effects of solar mimimum are huge and not fully understood however we do know that solar minimum allows more cosmic rays to reach the earth.

Forecasters and snow lovers look for this to try to predict a SSW Stratospheric Sudden Warming. This is a warming of the stratosphere around the north pole which sends the rotational winds from a normal anti clockwise rotation to a complexed and more random circulation ( even clockwise)

This sends the Jet Stream southwards and gives the UK and many latitudes a better chance of a winter storm.

A solar mimimum allows more cosmic rays from the solar system to enter the Earth's atmosphere and so causing the stratosphere to warm.

We are currently in a deep solar minimum and so cosmic rays are at a very high level, also this solar minimum has gone on for longer than expected and longer than for many cycles. There have ben false starts to cycle 24, perhaps this is cycle 24 and its level of solar activity will remain unusually low throughout its complete cycle but the truth is nobody is really sure.

So the way i see it all.

The solar minimum is still not showing any signs of abating, even if it did today the effects of this minimum would be felt for next two winters, if the minimum continues then the effects increase.

The jet throughout the last 2 years seems to have moved southwards, a likely effect from the solar minimum and high level cosmic rays. This should push more storms southwards and with them lower temperatures during the winter months. We will watch with interest the SSW this year.

Temperatures have risen over the last 20 years so we have a higher starting point, so a frozen Thames is not the kind of level to be expected, but a trend to more snow is likely and an increase in artic ice levels.

Longterm the effects depend on the length and depth of the solar mimimum, It is feasable that climate warming could be reveresd and a prolonged cooling take effect. Although i agree that polution and CO2 is damaging and we should make serious efforts to reduce it i would like to end this by saying that climate change or as i rather say climate shift has been around for billions of years, beyond human life. It is likely that the solar activity of the latter part of the last century has had a massive effect on our global temperatures and less caused by the other effects than many think. Cosmic rays effect Ozone levels too. Maybe this climate shift to warmer cycle was more natural than we thought and a series of prolonged solar minimums will now reverese the warming.

Just a little food for thought.

[Iceberg]

Still awaiting the cold weather though, currently only Jan this year has been below average CET wise and globally temperatures have not cooled at all. Over the last 2 years both CET and global temps have been on an upwards trend and not downwards.

I am not saying that what you've mentioned above won't happened, but as yet there is no evidence for it and it's not something I personally think is very likely.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Still awaiting the cold weather though, currently only Jan this year has been below average CET wise and globally temperatures have not cooled at all. Over the last 2 years both CET and global temps have been on an upwards trend and not downwards.

I am not saying that what you've mentioned above won't happened, but as yet there is no evidence for it and it's not something I personally think is very likely.

Global temperatures yes, CET no. 2007 was close to being the warmest year on record for the CET, with a record-breaking first half. Close to average temperatures in the second half prevented the records (set in 2006!) from being broken. 2008 just sneaked under 10C CET and 2009 has a chance of doing the same. Nonetheless while I don't agree that CET has been trending upwards over the last couple of years, it has stayed mostly above the 71-00 average.

Global temperatures have definitely shown a rise over the last couple of years, due to the strong La Nina in late 2007/early 2008, and the El Nino that has subsequently followed. And indeed, there has been no overall cooling in the last decade despite some modes of natural variability, notably ENSO, tending less positive than they were in the 1990s.

[jethro]

Has anyone seen anything recently which quantifies Solar lag more accurately? I've seen so many different time scales quoted, it's difficult to judge when we should expect any impact from the prolonged minimum.

[Devonian]

Has anyone seen anything recently which quantifies Solar lag more accurately? I've seen so many different time scales quoted, it's difficult to judge when we should expect any impact from the prolonged minimum.

Indeed.

I suspect if we did a poll (hint perhaps for anyone with more time...) we might find a lot of different opinions. And a lot of different opinion means that at any point someone can fit the weather to the sun's behaviour using some lag or other.

[jethro]

Indeed.

I suspect if we did a poll (hint perhaps for anyone with more time...) we might find a lot of different opinions. And a lot of different opinion means that at any point someone can fit the weather to the sun's behaviour using some lag or other.

True but I was thinking more along the lines of new papers/peer reviewed stuff rather than personal opinions.

There's an awful lot of focus upon the Solar cycle presently (sparked by the prolonged minimum), I wondered if it had prompted any new efforts to quantify future impacts and when they can be expected.

[WRCHowler]

Very interesting reading, would like to here more views on this.

[jethro]

Going back to the temperature posts from Iceberg and TWS.... According to NASA and GISS, year end figures for 2008 show it to have been the coolest year globally since 2000.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/

[Iceberg]

Global temperatures yes, CET no. 2007 was close to being the warmest year on record for the CET, with a record-breaking first half. Close to average temperatures in the second half prevented the records (set in 2006!) from being broken. 2008 just sneaked under 10C CET and 2009 has a chance of doing the same. Nonetheless while I don't agree that CET has been trending upwards over the last couple of years, it has stayed mostly above the 71-00 average.

Global temperatures have definitely shown a rise over the last couple of years, due to the strong La Nina in late 2007/early 2008, and the El Nino that has subsequently followed. And indeed, there has been no overall cooling in the last decade despite some modes of natural variability, notably ENSO, tending less positive than they were in the 1990s.

Yes Sorry TWS you were right, I've just very quickly plotted the CET anomalies for the last 2 years (24 months) the big drop in the middle around last autumn and winter. Taking the last 12 months the upward trend is evident however I wrongly assumed this went back a further 12 months.

forgot to post the chart

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Thanks pyrotech - sorry everyone seems to have ignored your post. That's unfair considering you have been right over the last year. I ignored them and just read what you said.

It's hard not to agree with your forecast for a colder winter than last year's, more marginal events becoming snowy ones. If the solar minimum is to continue to have an effect you might expect this and increased Arctic Ice totals.