UK and North west Europe - Climate change

[jethro]

No one has ignored Pyrotec, every post since then has been in reference to his post, whether it be questions about lag time for Solar effects or quantifiable differences to temperatures thus far in the prolonged minimum.

Perhaps if you hadn't (as you say) ignored those posts, you would have realised this AF.

[pyrotech]

Thanks pyrotech - sorry everyone seems to have ignored your post. That's unfair considering you have been right over the last year. I ignored them and just read what you said.

It's hard not to agree with your forecast for a colder winter than last year's, more marginal events becoming snowy ones. If the solar minimum is to continue to have an effect you might expect this and increased Arctic Ice totals.

Thanks for the comments.

Its always nice when someone agrees with you but equally good to have the opinions of others which can open ideas and further discussion.

The problem with the climate debate is its all been done reactively instead of both proactive and reactively. This makes us try to fit pieces to the puzzle, and the pieces we find to make fit are normally the ones we are familiar with. By being proactive and searching for new ideas for why things change will lead to better understanding of all the diverse effects that accumulate together to make the big picture.

Sometimes when we find something that seems to fit and sounds feasable, we allow it to grow without questioning it, without returning to the problem and double checking our work against new data, complacency perhaps.

It seems some would like further proof and reliable data to look at, a very sensible approach as this again could be a piece of the puzzle fitted wrongly, perhaps even its the right pieces but in the wrong places.

Anyhow i intend to add a few links here in next 24 hours, to some data so that people can digest and interpret the data themselves. This will include the LAG factor. W can then constructively discuss the findings and reliability of the source and unreliability if the case.

[jethro]

I look forward to it Pyrotec. To be honest, I find it all rather puzzling when trying to decipher the impact of a prolonged minimum, there's so many conflicting pieces of data out there as to when impacts can/will be felt? Lag varies from a few months up to 20 years and every variable in between (depending upon who you read), the extent of impact seems to provide no clearer answers either.

Have you chosen one particular piece of research and based your thoughts upon this, if so, how did you reach that decision?

[pyrotech]

I look forward to it Pyrotec. To be honest, I find it all rather puzzling when trying to decipher the impact of a prolonged minimum, there's so many conflicting pieces of data out there as to when impacts can/will be felt? Lag varies from a few months up to 20 years and every variable in between (depending upon who you read), the extent of impact seems to provide no clearer answers either.

Have you chosen one particular piece of research and based your thoughts upon this, if so, how did you reach that decision?

Its a truely massive area, and conflicts of information.

I do not use one source as i like to keep an open mind on everything so i can retrace my thoughts. Different sources maks a more balanced collection of thoughts. As i o

said earlier its easy when you see the light at the end of the tunnel to run towards it, thinking its your salvation, when in fact its a high speed train heading straight at you.

Any way some unbiased links for you

Firstly a NASA article on the Solar Wind - its this lack of solar wind speed that allows cosmic rays to enter our orbit.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/23sep_solarwind.htm

Now about cosmic rays - another NASA article/

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29sep_cosmicrays.htm

Sea ice chart, not conclusive but we are heading towards the 79 -2000 minimum although long way to go, but when you look at it i ask youto think about this - Has there been a huge difference ( downwards) of the CO2 that we have put into the atmosphere in last 3 years where the effects could now cause a downward trend in temps and a reversal in sea ice extent. The answer is No.

Then look at the sun spot cycle and look at the historic events which show warming after a max and cooling after an effective minimum.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png

Finally the LAG and some data. These think its 3 years where i said 2 but not going to split pins over that.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/02/13/where-have-all-the-sunspots-gone/

Anyhow just take a look at it and be proactive, do not think CO2 think openly, add cO2 the one we all know about at the end, compare it and just think about the data.

Quite happy to get more data if required but lets see if the puzzle looks a bit more recognisable now.

Edited September 30, 2009 by pyrotech

[jethro]

The cosmic ray stuff is interesting but I don't think Svensmark has been too successful so far in validating the link with increased cloudiness. Perhaps more will come from CERN on this in the near future.

[stewfox]

I look forward to it Pyrotec. To be honest, I find it all rather puzzling when trying to decipher the impact of a prolonged minimum, there's so many conflicting pieces of data out there as to when impacts can/will be felt? Lag varies from a few months up to 20 years and every variable in between (depending upon who you read), the extent of impact seems to provide no clearer answers either.

Have you chosen one particular piece of research and based your thoughts upon this, if so, how did you reach that decision?

Has there been any research done on the 1645 to 1715 the 'Maunder Minimum' .

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm

There appears to be a correlation here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

Is there anywhwere that plots sunspot activity v temps last 300 yrs ? Sorry if I have missed it

[pyrotech]

Has there been any research done on the 1645 to 1715 the 'Maunder Minimum' .

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm

There appears to be a correlation here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

Is there anywhwere that plots sunspot activity v temps last 300 yrs ? Sorry if I have missed it

The best data is from the Dalton minimum as its more recent.

I include a paragraph from the article and a link to the whole article, i hope it helps.

The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830.[1] Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0° C decline over 20 years.[2] The Year Without a Summer, in 1816, also occurred during the Dalton Minimum.

The precise cause of the lower-than-average temperatures during this period is not well understood.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_Minimum

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

And indeed, there has been no overall cooling in the last decade despite some modes of natural variability, notably ENSO, tending less positive than they were in the 1990s.

But ENSO cycle [perturbation] only went La Nina domination in feb 07...give it time. This current El nino is a good indicator of its effects....somewhat surpressed.

BFTP

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've already answered that point on many previous occasions. The mode of ENSO was predominantly positive up until 1998, so the period of near-neutral ENSO between 1999 and 2007 should still, on average, have produced some cooling.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm still awaiting proof positive that the PDO didn't swing into what would have been negative back in 98' Either things are well understood or we are running to catch up.

We are either to accept that the current (past 150yrs) warming is occurring above and beyond 'natural' signatures (which seems to be becoming the accepted norm) and so must look to it's augmenting of these 'natural' signatures or there is 'nothing to be seen here....move along'.

At some point, no matter how much you ascribe human augmentation to the current warming , human augmentation must impact natural signatures. You pick your level of impact and you then look for the evidence to back this up.

We are either fine tuning our understanding of the 'El-Nino' phenomena or it is splitting into different genera.

We are either seeing Ozone impacting Antarctica or it is all just background signals.

Black soot in the Himalaya's will impact over a billion people or we've seen it all before.

Arctic ice is merely reacting to solar output or we are in deep do-do's

Ho Hum.

[pyrotech]

So where are we almost a year later?

Another poor summer for most of the UK, the Southeast having done pretty good but the Northwest pretty poor.

The jet stream moved Southwards and caused a washout for many areas and a North - South split became the norm.

A dry September for most and again the South did best. Now Autumn is truly here as we enter head into October.

So whats the winter ahead going to be like from a climate change perspective and what has changed in the last 12 months?

Firstly global emmisions of CO2 have not been reduced so any change from that cause should be not to huge. What has changed is the prediction of the solar minimum ending and a return to active solar sun spot activity.

The experts got this one wrong and we are currently in a very deep solar min. The effects on the climate should now really start to be felt and so i include the reasons why this is signifigant to our climate. Why now and not when the minimum started? How it effects us, and likely effects.

Firstly to show the lag in time between the minimum and the resulting temperatures.

The Lag is around 2 years and the best explanation for why is its an accumalative effect much like the summer and winter in the UK.

The longest day in the Northern hemisphere is around 21st of June. This is not when temperatures peak that comes almost 5-6 weeks later.

Same with winter, shortest day is close to christmas yet our coldest temperatures come later in january or february.

Its the same with solar max and minimums, but the cycle and prossess is much bigger.

The effects of solar mimimum are huge and not fully understood however we do know that solar minimum allows more cosmic rays to reach the earth.

Forecasters and snow lovers look for this to try to predict a SSW Stratospheric Sudden Warming. This is a warming of the stratosphere around the north pole which sends the rotational winds from a normal anti clockwise rotation to a complexed and more random circulation ( even clockwise)

This sends the Jet Stream southwards and gives the UK and many latitudes a better chance of a winter storm.

A solar mimimum allows more cosmic rays from the solar system to enter the Earth's atmosphere and so causing the stratosphere to warm.

We are currently in a deep solar minimum and so cosmic rays are at a very high level, also this solar minimum has gone on for longer than expected and longer than for many cycles. There have ben false starts to cycle 24, perhaps this is cycle 24 and its level of solar activity will remain unusually low throughout its complete cycle but the truth is nobody is really sure.

So the way i see it all.

The solar minimum is still not showing any signs of abating, even if it did today the effects of this minimum would be felt for next two winters, if the minimum continues then the effects increase.

The jet throughout the last 2 years seems to have moved southwards, a likely effect from the solar minimum and high level cosmic rays. This should push more storms southwards and with them lower temperatures during the winter months. We will watch with interest the SSW this year.

Temperatures have risen over the last 20 years so we have a higher starting point, so a frozen Thames is not the kind of level to be expected, but a trend to more snow is likely and an increase in artic ice levels.

Longterm the effects depend on the length and depth of the solar mimimum, It is feasable that climate warming could be reveresd and a prolonged cooling take effect. Although i agree that polution and CO2 is damaging and we should make serious efforts to reduce it i would like to end this by saying that climate change or as i rather say climate shift has been around for billions of years, beyond human life. It is likely that the solar activity of the latter part of the last century has had a massive effect on our global temperatures and less caused by the other effects than many think. Cosmic rays effect Ozone levels too. Maybe this climate shift to warmer cycle was more natural than we thought and a series of prolonged solar minimums will now reverese the warming.

Just a little food for thought.

o where are we now

Well cycle 24 is still at solar minimum.

We are in the effects now, normally as the effects of solar min take effect the solar cycle has began to climb. Not this time!

But are we seeing any effects to clarify this?

USA record coldest October in some states, almost all states had colder than usual

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/11/ncdc-october-usa-temperatures-3rd-coldest-on-record-wettest-ever-on-record/

Then there is hongkong which had coldest November

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/295356,hong-kong-shivers-in-coldest-november-in-more-than-120-years.html

Then europe with record cold December - ok not yet but very possible.

So i see this year showing the start of the cooling due to solar min, i am not alone Noaa mention it in the winter forecast but unsure

how much of effect it will have.

So what can we expect from solar min for winter 2009/2010 ?

Think 80s - mild, cold and very cold cycles.

winter 2008/2009 saw heavy snow in South west UK that made the news.

This year expect snowfall accross the UK with more signifigant falls. Deep penertrating wind chill ( 1987)

I have been critisised previously as this is a weather forecast not climate forecast, i justify it with this.

If i just gave effects that would occur in 10 years time it would take 10 years to prove. I can only show what is happening by showing effects

that occur in months.

Low solar min has huge effects on earth. Effects stratosphere, jet, cloud cover and gulf stream.

This week sees climate conference in Copenhagen, a waste of time?

No, although a active solar activity over last few decades has increased global temps more than humans, there is nothing we can do about solar activity.

I estimate human causes about 10 - 20% of the increase, we can do something about that portion. I do think that certain politicians

have jumped on it to justify taxes and increase income, but not going to get in politics here.

Also we do need to take care of our atmosphere and air we breath.

So i still standby the original forecast of 80s style winter with a very cold europe, snow for UK and with the Solar min continuing i see the effects getting more so

as we move onwards.

Will we see anything signifigant? Yes expect europe to make the news in December. Russia to break record cold for last 10 years.

Uk will see travel disruption during the winter from snowfall. 30 year low in windchill temps?

So low solar cycle continues and effects are just starting to materilise.

So why are temps accross world not dropping like a stone? Water maintains heat longer than air, the oceans will take longer to cool

but air will take the effects of solar min quicker, stratosphere will be effected by solar min due to more cosmic rays reaching earth.

Any comments and constructive critism welcomed.

Pyrotech

Edited December 8, 2009 by pyrotech

[pyrotech]

Sacramento record cold

... Record low temperatures this morning...

Dry and cold north winds subsided overnight across the Central Valley

and allowed temperatures to tumble to record lows this morning at

many valley locations.

At the north end of the valley... the Redding Airport dropped to 20

degrees which broke the previous record low for the date of 25 in

1998.

At Red Bluff... the low temperature was 23 degrees which broke the old

record of 27 in 1937.

In Marysville/Yuba City... the low was 25 which broke the old mark of 28

degrees on this date in 1936.

Farther south... the Sacramento Executive Airport reported a low this

morning of 27 degrees which broke the previous record of 28 in 1980.

Downtown Sacramento dipped to 28 degrees breaking the previous

record of 29 set on this date way back in 1891.

In the northern San Joaquin Valley... Stockton reported a low this morning

of 23 degrees which broke the previous daily record of 26 in 2005.

In Modesto... this mornings low temperature was 24 degrees which

easily broke the previous record low for the date of 28 in 1960.

More winter-like weather is on the way for the valley and

surrounding areas through at least Wednesday as cold air continues

to drop south from western Canada and Alaska.

link ....

http://espanol.wunderground.com/US/CA/017.html

[pyrotech]

USA TODAY

The East Coast braced for a storm of snow, ice and rain today after hundreds of flights were canceled and interstates were closed in the Midwest on Tuesday.

The storm was blamed in the deaths of a hunter in Arizona, two motorists in New Mexico and one motorist in Texas, according to the Associated Press.

The National Weather Service said motorists this morning would face up to a quarter-inch of ice in central Pennsylvania, western Virginia and Maryland and eastern West Virginia. New England was forecast to get a few inches of snow, followed by sleet and rain, meteorologist Mike Musher said.

Weather Channel meteorologist Mike Dulce said up to 16 inches of snow was expected Tuesday night from Kansas and eastern Nebraska to Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Michigan, followed by 40-mph winds causing whiteout conditions today.

MORE: Fierce Western storm barrels toward Midwest

"Travel will be a nightmare," Dulce said.

Lee Thorne of the West Virginia Department of Highways said 56 road crews were sent home early Tuesday to rest before returning around 7 p.m. to prepare to spread salt and limestone chips on 3,458 miles of road.

"We have a fair amount of dirt and gravel roads, and a quarter-inch is enough to freeze on those as well," Thorne said. "So it's going to be slick everywhere."

While rain and snow whips the East, winds and snow drifts will lash the Midwest.

The Durango Herald reported that 1,400 customers lost power after nearly 4 feet of snow fell in Colorado's San Juan Mountains and wind gusts topped 100 mph.

Weather was blamed for 200 flight cancellations at Chicago's O'Hare Airport, said Karen Pride, spokeswoman for the Chicago Department of Aviation. Chicago's Midway Airport saw flight delays averaging five hours Tuesday, according to the Federal Aviation Administration.

In Des Moines, schools let out early and multivehicle pileups closed Interstates 80 and 35, said Jessica Lown, spokeswoman for the Iowa Department of Public Safety.

The Iowa National Guard was called out to help state troopers rescue motorists.

Bill Talbert, a clerk at Miller's Hardware in Des Moines, said he sold several snow blowers and people were buying four or five shovels at a time. "I've sold out of 50-pound bags of Ice Melt," Talbert said. "Grocery stores have lines of people trying to prepare for the worst."

so this i believe is a sign that something is changing the weather patterns and that is solar min.

One swallow does not make a summer but i believe globally we will see similar ( Europe) over next 14 days.

Will the media show the deep snow and freesing conditions at copenhagen next week? A few heads of state delayed from leaving a climate change " global warming" event due to snow and ice would be comical.

[pyrotech]

USA TODAY

The East Coast braced for a storm of snow, ice and rain today after hundreds of flights were canceled and interstates were closed in the Midwest on Tuesday.

The storm was blamed in the deaths of a hunter in Arizona, two motorists in New Mexico and one motorist in Texas, according to the Associated Press.

The National Weather Service said motorists this morning would face up to a quarter-inch of ice in central Pennsylvania, western Virginia and Maryland and eastern West Virginia. New England was forecast to get a few inches of snow, followed by sleet and rain, meteorologist Mike Musher said.

Weather Channel meteorologist Mike Dulce said up to 16 inches of snow was expected Tuesday night from Kansas and eastern Nebraska to Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Michigan, followed by 40-mph winds causing whiteout conditions today.

MORE: Fierce Western storm barrels toward Midwest

"Travel will be a nightmare," Dulce said.

Lee Thorne of the West Virginia Department of Highways said 56 road crews were sent home early Tuesday to rest before returning around 7 p.m. to prepare to spread salt and limestone chips on 3,458 miles of road.

"We have a fair amount of dirt and gravel roads, and a quarter-inch is enough to freeze on those as well," Thorne said. "So it's going to be slick everywhere."

While rain and snow whips the East, winds and snow drifts will lash the Midwest.

The Durango Herald reported that 1,400 customers lost power after nearly 4 feet of snow fell in Colorado's San Juan Mountains and wind gusts topped 100 mph.

Weather was blamed for 200 flight cancellations at Chicago's O'Hare Airport, said Karen Pride, spokeswoman for the Chicago Department of Aviation. Chicago's Midway Airport saw flight delays averaging five hours Tuesday, according to the Federal Aviation Administration.

In Des Moines, schools let out early and multivehicle pileups closed Interstates 80 and 35, said Jessica Lown, spokeswoman for the Iowa Department of Public Safety.

The Iowa National Guard was called out to help state troopers rescue motorists.

Bill Talbert, a clerk at Miller's Hardware in Des Moines, said he sold several snow blowers and people were buying four or five shovels at a time. "I've sold out of 50-pound bags of Ice Melt," Talbert said. "Grocery stores have lines of people trying to prepare for the worst."

so this i believe is a sign that something is changing the weather patterns and that is solar min.

One swallow does not make a summer but i believe globally we will see similar ( Europe) over next 14 days.

Will the media show the deep snow and freesing conditions at copenhagen next week? A few heads of state delayed from leaving a climate change " global warming" event due to snow and ice would be comical.

Since that post USA had another severe winter Storm, UK had xtended cold period with some snow and disruption, Sun has come alive but not by much. I would expect a low solar max and so the solar minimum low sunspots should continue. More cold weather for uK and europe as the solar min starts to bite after the lag.

So here is our 80s style winter.

[pyrotech]

further update

2010 has began with a very cold trend and even media are calling it coldest for 30 years.

so my 80s winter forecast has come to fruitition, now i realise some will say that 80s winter but different reasons for it.

We have local cold in northern Europe i hear some Government departments cry out.

Local? Try USA, Most of Europe and Asia!!!

Where else is there?

Answer Greenland and Iceland are warmer than average, this happened in the eighties too, its where the cold air is forced south that them places become less cold. -25 instead of -35.

Solar activity has increased, but still very low. For a true solar minimum it would still pick up but be a short relatively low high sunspot cycle so there is no sign that solar max in the next few years will be like any we have seen over last few decades. Solar min has been lower and longer than normal and i expect solar max to be shorter and lower.

So for those that are non believers can i point a few important points

1. Solar mins of extended length and low mins have historically produced a cold Norther hemisephere.

2. This is not a local event it has effected the whole northern hemisphere.

3. CO2 immisions have increased every year, there has been no global reduction that would account for this cold spell.

4. A short cold spell over the UK could be accounted for but this has been a northern hemisphere event over weeks not days.

5. Sunspot cycle can not be taxed but CO2 taxes create alot of income.

Ok perhaps number 5 a little unfair, i believe scientists looked for a reason for increase in global temperatures and come up with CO2 lagitamately as it increased in same time period. Prudent scientists would reavaluate and reassess the information and see another possability of the sun spot cycle. It had sustained very high activity for over 3 decades which also happened within ame time frame, but where CO2 continued to increase as temps started to stabalise and finally begin a slow decrease, Sunspot cycle hit a vry low minimum.

Again i will reiterate that pollution of all sorts should be restricted and cutting back on CO2 is a good thing. It also contributes about 10 - 20 percent to warming. But its not the main driver.

So with the LAG We should see another cold winter 2010 - 2011. after that its all on what activity occurs on the sun.

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

further update

2010 has began with a very cold trend and even media are calling it coldest for 30 years.

so my 80s winter forecast has come to fruitition, now i realise some will say that 80s winter but different reasons for it.

We have local cold in northern Europe i hear some Government departments cry out.

Local? Try USA, Most of Europe and Asia!!!

Where else is there?

Answer Greenland and Iceland are warmer than average, this happened in the eighties too, its where the cold air is forced south that them places become less cold. -25 instead of -35.

Solar activity has increased, but still very low. For a true solar minimum it would still pick up but be a short relatively low high sunspot cycle so there is no sign that solar max in the next few years will be like any we have seen over last few decades. Solar min has been lower and longer than normal and i expect solar max to be shorter and lower.

So for those that are non believers can i point a few important points

1. Solar mins of extended length and low mins have historically produced a cold Norther hemisephere.

2. This is not a local event it has effected the whole northern hemisphere.

3. CO2 immisions have increased every year, there has been no global reduction that would account for this cold spell.

4. A short cold spell over the UK could be accounted for but this has been a northern hemisphere event over weeks not days.

5. Sunspot cycle can not be taxed but CO2 taxes create alot of income.

Ok perhaps number 5 a little unfair, i believe scientists looked for a reason for increase in global temperatures and come up with CO2 lagitamately as it increased in same time period. Prudent scientists would reavaluate and reassess the information and see another possability of the sun spot cycle. It had sustained very high activity for over 3 decades which also happened within ame time frame, but where CO2 continued to increase as temps started to stabalise and finally begin a slow decrease, Sunspot cycle hit a vry low minimum.

Again i will reiterate that pollution of all sorts should be restricted and cutting back on CO2 is a good thing. It also contributes about 10 - 20 percent to warming. But its not the main driver.

So with the LAG We should see another cold winter 2010 - 2011. after that its all on what activity occurs on the sun.

What is your opinion on the forecast by some of a Dalton type minimum occurring? Also, if a cooling trend does occur over the next 30 years or so do you think the effects will be equal in the southern hemisphere?

[Northernlights]

An almost complete lack of northernlights(auroa borealis) up here in the last few winters got me thinking about this solar minimum which I think is the only powerful enough influence to cool our climate. From a farm point of view we have had several recent cool summers and also 2 winters now when grass actually stopped growing in the winter like it used to 30 yers ago and after a 30 year break we are now feeding the wintering sheep in the latter part of winter although even sooner this year. The other observation is that fresh falling snow has returned to the hills around us above 3000feet in June and September as it uused to in the sixties and seventies. I used to record this in the farm diary my father kept.

[pyrotech]

What is your opinion on the forecast by some of a Dalton type minimum occurring? Also, if a cooling trend does occur over the next 30 years or so do you think the effects will be equal in the southern hemisphere?

Too early to predict a Dalton as its all down to solar activity and no one has been accurate at predicting what our nearest star will do. All of NASA forecasts for this cycle have been wrong so far, they keep updating and extending the minimum every time the forecast goes wrong.

but due to the lag time we should still go colder even if it maxed tomorrow. Just my opinion that this will be a short low max before another long deep low sun spot cycle.

southern hemisphere has more ocean than land compared to Northern hemisphere so would be alittle different there as water retains heat much longer

An almost complete lack of northernlights(auroa borealis) up here in the last few winters got me thinking about this solar minimum which I think is the only powerful enough influence to cool our climate. From a farm point of view we have had several recent cool summers and also 2 winters now when grass actually stopped growing in the winter like it used to 30 yers ago and after a 30 year break we are now feeding the wintering sheep in the latter part of winter although even sooner this year. The other observation is that fresh falling snow has returned to the hills around us above 3000feet in June and September as it uused to in the sixties and seventies. I used to record this in the farm diary my father kept.

Yes its theses local obsrvations that get picked up first. Its a shame that scientists will not publicly and honestly reavaluate the situation. There is billions at stake if they do thou and corruption whether it started legitametly or not is taking place in my opinion.

Gordon Brown would lose billions in taxes if truth was known and there is not enough money in the pot now.

Ironically heads of state attended copenhagen conference by plane. Some by private jet. so they are not that concerned. If they were they could have conferenced by tv ovr the internet.

The hard working British public will be priced out of well deserved holidays due to air taxes.

Its honest obsrvations by people like yourself that keeps this debate alive.

Edited January 10, 2010 by pyrotech

[laserguy]

Its honest obsrvations by people like yourself that keeps this debate alive.

Agree,pyrotech. The observations of the 'man in the street' will be what eventually topples the 'facts and figures' that we commoners cannot verify.

[SP1986]

I would actually listen to the warming sceptics if they didn't suggest the cooling as if they were enjoying it, and if they are it's because they do enjoy it - hence the reason there are many biased views...

I'm not a warming bot though I'd rather just wait and see what happens seeing as I can't make any policies myself.

Still I do think the warming sceptics haven't got much hope to be honest, as neither have those supporting a runaway warming view.

Still 2 years of cold winter proves nothing other than it can get cold - correct looking at our lattitude.. as I had much of a chuckle when I heard 2003 touted to be the signal of massive global warming.

I think both sides of the coin here are quite amusing.

As someone who's not particularly of any radical opinion or perhaps more to the point not advertising my favourite weather type, I can assure everyone as the moment there is no massive cooling event, as there is no massive warming event and we're also not entering an ice age .

We're in a lull - enjoy it while it's here.

[pyrotech]

I would actually listen to the warming sceptics if they didn't suggest the cooling as if they were enjoying it, and if they are it's because they do enjoy it - hence the reason there are many biased views...

I'm not a warming bot though I'd rather just wait and see what happens seeing as I can't make any policies myself.

Still I do think the warming sceptics haven't got much hope to be honest, as neither have those supporting a runaway warming view.

Still 2 years of cold winter proves nothing other than it can get cold - correct looking at our lattitude.. as I had much of a chuckle when I heard 2003 touted to be the signal of massive global warming.

I think both sides of the coin here are quite amusing.

As someone who's not particularly of any radical opinion or perhaps more to the point not advertising my favourite weather type, I can assure everyone as the moment there is no massive cooling event, as there is no massive warming event and we're also not entering an ice age .

We're in a lull - enjoy it while it's here.

Hi stephen,

Thank you for your contribution, but i do not see the point of your post!

You say you laugh at both groups and then you sit on the fence. A nice place to be, as you can watch the world go round.

It may be of more benefit if you tell readers what you think causes any changes, forecast future changes and take a proactive part in the forum.

I feel your negative view on a discussion that is highly topical, important and scientific, by laughing at those making comments is disapointing, especially after reading your informative posts over the last few years in model forum.

I have some respect for the Co2 enthusiastic posters as they belive in the data they provide, regardless if i think they have missed the more obvious reasons for climate change

I am not pushing a huge global cooling, rather a default back towards the normal, which is why i often quote the Eighties.

We are not talking a dalton or maunder minimum, that would take decades of low solar activity. But even NOAA have started to talk about possible effects of low solar cycle so with historical proof it would be foolhardy of anyone to discount this.

Proven that high solar activity causes a warming, proven low solar activity causes cooling. What is not proven is by how much and how quickly ( or at least the Scientists argue that its not as much effect as some like myself think we found in the data.

I think the fact that northern latitudes have seen a shift of cold from the pole speaks volumes, i am aware of local weather conditions , but this has been right accross the northern hemisphere from about 40deg North. Its not one blast from one weather system.

Anyone who thinks that great thermonuclear ball in our sky, our nearest star, has no effect on our weather here on Earth, Would be better off going through a few basic books to get an understanding of life on this planet. Some say the effects of low solar min is 0.2 deg less heat reaching Earth, i can not dissagree as i do not know, but 0.2 degree world wide and over a period of years would be substancial. The you get cosmic rays in the equation.

Problem really is what move will the sun make next, a lower than normal solar max or back to normal?

Now when we know that we can begin to have an idea of global climate changes.

As for Co2 , like any polution and changes human make we should minimise it, but its not the only thing effecting global temperatures, full stop

The Earth has had climate shifts over millions of years, before human intervention

[Gray-Wolf]

Such a shame we're facing such a warm (and wet????) summer then?

Will 2010 be the one to 'do it' for you?

Come on in the waters fine (but it'll get warmer......)

[jethro]

It's January GW, how on earth can you say what kind of a summer we are going to have? Even the MET with their super computer cannot forecast this far out; even with the super computer they have had to retract the forecast "above average winter".

Way, way too early to predict summer 2010, even with an El Nino and the assumptions connected with it.

[laserguy]

Oh I'm sure it will be a hot summer - it wouldn't do to make out that it's been anything else,know what I mean? I've heard the phrase "it's been the warmest xxxx since xxxx" so many times over the years,we all ought to be frazzled to a crisp by now and the simple act of poking one's nose out the door at midday would reduce you to a slobbering wreck. Guaranteed - as soon as the temp breaches 30C (how many times has that happened in the last three summers?) it will most assuredly be due to us fiddling with the atmosphere and we can expect this to be the norm in blah blah. Complete twaddle of course,as it has so amply demonstrated itself to be,thus far. Personally,being a sun-shunner,I'm hoping and praying that this summer is 2007 all over again,and then some. If that sort of thing is caused by us,where do I sign up?

[sunny starry skies]

It's January GW, how on earth can you say what kind of a summer we are going to have? Even the MET with their super computer cannot forecast this far out; even with the super computer they have had to retract the forecast "above average winter".

Way, way too early to predict summer 2010, even with an El Nino and the assumptions connected with it.

I agree with you Jethro here. Who knows what kind of summer we'll, have just as who knew what kind of winter we'll have - that's all weather, not climate change! There's been an intriguing, if depressing, tendency for wet summers in the UK of late, with notably cool maximum temps due to frequent easterly winds here in Edinburgh. As rather beautifully shown by the Met Office's poor seasonal forecast performance, it seems we just can't forecast the general weather patterns on a seasonal scale with the tools we have at present. I don't know if there are any stats to show whether people like Glacier Point and others who use the teleconnections on this site have a better record or not (it's easy to remember succeses like some this winter over failures like the effects of the propagation of the SSW last winter), but clearly the methodologies used by people like the Met are not up to the seasonal forecasting problem. Still, that's a quite different problem to forecasting globally or hemispherically-averaged climate, which is perversely easier as you don't have to worry about exactly which parts of the globe have warm and cold anomalies!

So I'm not going to worry about whether this summer is hot and sunny or cold and wet, but I can say as an Edinburgh resident that another cold (maxes) and wet summer will try the patience somewhat! I'll also be interested to see if this sequence of summers continues - what does it mean for regional/global weather patterns?

sss

Edit: LG, nice to see you're your usual balanced self! It doesn't matter what the summer is like in the UK, so far as the AGW question is concerned, in exactly the way that it doesn't matter what the winter is like. It's straightforward to understand that the world can warm, while we get cooler, if the weather patterns dictate so. But I don't think you'll find too many climate scientists highlighting every last heatwave as due to AGW - usually it's the media hyping it up, they'll ask someone from the Met or wherever, who will qualify their response with "possibly"/"maybe"/"heatwaves are more likely" due to AGW (perfectly true).... then the media report it as if the relevant expert has definitively connected the two, when they haven't. All they've done is said, "yes it could [but we'll have to wait and see for the long-term trend]" or "these kind of weatehr events are more likely in a warmer world". Then good people like yourself get angry because everything's hyped up/made "certain" by the media!

Edited January 14, 2010 by sunny starry skies