UK and North west Europe - Climate change

[pyrotech]

I think of all the places in the world that NW Europe is going to be the most difficult to pin down in so far as the way climate changes impacts will manifest. The places on the Atlantic coast (and the belt inland from the coast) may well find wetter ,cooler conditions plaguing them as the Arctic looses summer ice and ocean currents alter. We all know what a reduction in the gulf stream is proposed to bring us but what of an 'extended ' gulf stream running up into Frans Joseph land and not around the Baltic?

It is not just as simple as 'temps' when you have the Atlantic to factor in. Of course further inland just end up with drought and increased rain 'events' flash flooding areas (with the knock on impacts through the river drainage systems carrying off the rainfall as we saw in the Danube a few years back).

I hope we are not to 'pay' for climate change with a run of dreary summers as the Arctic sorts it's new patterns out but that , coupled with the increase in run off from Greenland, (as the melted glaciers release the ice sheets from above them) makes it's impacts felt.

GW and Stephen make very good points and i have the greatest respect for both of you.

Would you agree that Jet stream effects the Gulf stream?

Would you agree that historic data does show temperature changes occur during suatained deep solar min. even if only in Dalton and maunder minimum?

Would you agree that jet stream is effected by ssw and that links with this and cosmic rays solar min have been discussed even if you do not personnally see a link.

Finally on my forecasts would you agree there is enough to investigate further the connections.

I am not saying that there is no global warming event and certainly agree that human caused polution needs to be kerbed, but please guys and gals lets have an open mind. Science is about new findings and changing outcomes as information becomes available. Sometimes every thing looks clear until new evidence suddenly shows that maybe we have not seen the full picture.

I feel us humans must do our bit and now, but i think our nearest star will have the final say in all this.

[SP1986]

GW and Stephen make very good points and i have the greatest respect for both of you.

Would you agree that Jet stream effects the Gulf stream?

Would you agree that historic data does show temperature changes occur during suatained deep solar min. even if only in Dalton and maunder minimum?

Would you agree that jet stream is effected by ssw and that links with this and cosmic rays solar min have been discussed even if you do not personnally see a link.

Finally on my forecasts would you agree there is enough to investigate further the connections.

I am not saying that there is no global warming event and certainly agree that human caused polution needs to be kerbed, but please guys and gals lets have an open mind. Science is about new findings and changing outcomes as information becomes available. Sometimes every thing looks clear until new evidence suddenly shows that maybe we have not seen the full picture.

I feel us humans must do our bit and now, but i think our nearest star will have the final say in all this.

The jetstream although not having a direct effect on the gulf stream and NAD must have indirect affects somewhere along the line, but I suspect the affects are literally at the surface and whether the very surface skin of water has much affect on the weather patterns I do not know. As for changes, yes there are well documented evidence showing Dalton and Maunder mins have produced cooler periods, that said I don't think we have a huge amount of evidence to suggest we are in a major solar minimum, especially since the sunspots seem to be increasing on the solar surface, plus a solar flare was spotted I think so the sun looks like it's recovering.

I think the solar minimum pattern are suibject to change, so whilst a pattern is seen in relatively modern history there is no reason to suggest that pattern cannot change it's state. Ie we could get a prolonged maximum or a prolonged minimum at some stage - A prolonged minimum may have some effect, but I think the variables must all connect together. I think in this sense there's as much a lottery of luck to what happens to weather patterns on a solar minimum/maximum, but strong must force it somewhat.

That said I think the globe as a whole has been largely unaffected by that but it seems that NW Europe/UK are particularly sensitive to small changes.