Tropical Storm Kika

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 92C has been upgraded to a tropical depression as convection has persisted over a small, well defined centre. This is the first cyclone of the Central Pacific season. Sea temps are expected to remain around 27C and shear low to moderate, so slow strengthening is expected over the coming days as the depression moves westwards along the southern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge anchored northeast of Hawaii. The depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.

[Cookie]

this system has become Tropical Storm Kika

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed it has Cookie. Convection has persisted over the centre in favourable conditions of low shear and warm sea temperatures, and Kika's current intensity is 35kts. However, Kika is a very small storm and will be sensitive to environmental changes. Conditions are set to remain favourable for the next 96hrs, after which shear is expected to become strong. However, this is a long way off so obviously there is some uncertianty. CPHC currently expecting a peak of 50kts before the unfavourable conditions move in. Kika is expected to continue generally westwards along the southern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the north, and is no threat to land at the moment.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate

[Somerset Squall]

Kika remains a disorganised, sheared system with an intensity of 35kts. Shear is expected to ease over the next 24hrs but sea temps will be marginal so only slow intensification is expected. Later in the foreacast period, waters are expected to warm up again, however this is when the strong sher is expected back again as I mentioned earlier. Overall, nothing big is expected from Kika in the less than ideal environment.

[Somerset Squall]

Kika was in trouble last night and weakened to a tropical depression, as shear removed most of the convection from the LLC. However, convection has made a comeback and Kika has been upgraded to a tropical storm again, with an initial intensity of 35kts. Kika is now over waters of 27C and shear has relaxed somewhat, so intensification is forecast. But just how much Kika is going to intensify is difficult to tell. Kika hasn't really responded to the favourable environment as yet, but for the next 48hrs at least the environment will support intensification. Beyond 48hrs, Kika will be moving over even warmer waters and interestingly, shear is not progged to be as high now so Kika may keep on strengthening throughout the forecast period. As I mentioned before, the shear later in the forecast period was always uncertain, and of course may swing the other way and be forecast to be high again before Kika reaches that point, we'll have to wait and see. The CPHC are forecasting Kika to be at 45kts by 120hrs, but even they say this estimate may be too low. Kika is a small system, vunerable to environmental changes so forecasting the future intensity of this system will be tricky.

Edited August 9, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

an interesting little storm this one

[Somerset Squall]

an interesting little storm this one

It is, simply for the fact it's sat in a favourable environment but it STILL has strengthened. Intensity remains at 35kts on the latest CPHC advisory:

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008

500 AM HST SUN AUG 10 2008

OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FOR 1200 UTC FROM PHFO AND JTWC HAVE

CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 2.0...OR 30 KT FOR KIKA. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD

PATTERN HAS SHOWN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS SO I

HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT.

DEEP RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE STORM. DEEP

EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER KIKA ON A

GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY

CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING KIKA TO MOVE NORTH OF WEST...THE 1200 UTC

SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT KIKA HAS ACTUALLY CONTINUED TRACKING

SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. I HAVE NUDGED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER

SOUTH AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE IN THE TRACK. I HAVE HIGH

CONFIDENCE THAT KIKA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST CLOSE TO THE

FORECAST TRACK.

THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS KIKA OVER 26.5 TO 27.0C WATER FOR AT LEAST

THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VERY WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO

WEAK WESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 12 HOURS. THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST

GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 72 HOURS. DESPITE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...KIKA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED VERY RAPIDLY.

I HAVE FORECAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN

GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS AS SHEAR INCREASES. SINCE KIKA HAS

NOT RESPONDED AS EXPECTED TO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...MY CONFIDENCE

IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 9.8N 162.1W 35 KT

12HR VT 11/0000Z 9.9N 163.8W 35 KT

24HR VT 11/1200Z 10.2N 166.2W 35 KT

36HR VT 12/0000Z 10.6N 168.6W 40 KT

48HR VT 12/1200Z 11.1N 170.9W 40 KT

72HR VT 13/1200Z 12.2N 176.5W 35 KT

96HR VT 14/1200Z 12.9N 178.3E 35 KT

120HR VT 15/1200Z 13.2N 173.1E 35 KT

$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON

Conditions such as Kika is in now should facilitate strengthening, but for unknown reasons, Kika doesn't seem to want to respond. That's why the CPHC have kept the intensity forecast low, but if Kika finally does respond to the low shear and warm waters then the intensity forecast may need adjusting upward.

[tinybill]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/tropical/index.php

just what noaa are saying at the moment

Edited August 10, 2008 by tinybill

[Cookie]

thanks tinybill

[Somerset Squall]

Kika weakened to a tropical depression overnight and has not since recovered. Waters are plenty warm beneath the depression and shear is moderate for now. Based on past trends for Kika, the depression is not forcast to re-strengthen and may actually weaken to 25kts as shear increases in a day or so. Kika is not forecast to dissipate though as sea temps will become warmer as the shear increases.

[Cookie]

battling on bravely this one

[Somerset Squall]

It appears Kika is on the verge of dissipating. Convection is very limited and the centre is partially exposed. The depression is also losing shape and looks nothing more than a splodge of convection near an ill defined LLC. Degeneration into a remant low is expected in 36hrs, maybe sooner. I agree with this, as shear is expected to increase and I think with this and the circulation centre being so weak that Kika is unlikely to recover in the warmer waters west of the date line.

[Somerset Squall]

Kika is no longer a tropical cyclone. It's remnant low will cross the date line into the west pacific but redevelopment is not forcasted. Oddly, the ships model has been insisting on strengthening Kika into a typhoon once it reaches the West Pacific but this is highly unlikely in the forecasted sheared environment.

[Cookie]

why would the ships models do that?

[Somerset Squall]

why would the ships models do that?

No idea, perhaps it's underestimating the shear and overestimating the sea temps? (I'm definitely still a novice when it comes to models :lol: )

[Cookie]

ok thanks anyway