Winter 2008 / 2009 Your predictions

[Storm Animal]

Well as seem as the summer so far is looking as non-desript as the one last year, with the jet stream keeping the nice sunny weather south of the brittish isles, im gonna predict a similar winter to last year ie......late until we get the 1st snows, a fair few snow events, particularly later on in March/ April & any snow that falls will be short lived and melt rapidly!! But one thing I can predict is a lot of excitement of netweather when cold spells are forecast

[Cookie]

as much windy weather as possible thank you

[Geordiesnow]

Well as seem as the summer so far is looking as non-desript as the one last year, with the jet stream keeping the nice sunny weather south of the brittish isles, im gonna predict a similar winter to last year ie......late until we get the 1st snows, a fair few snow events, particularly later on in March/ April & any snow that falls will be short lived and melt rapidly!! But one thing I can predict is a lot of excitement of netweather when cold spells are forecast

Just to add to the bit in bold - Then the downgrades will come along, with the doom and gloom posters saying winter is over, the model output thread will become one big farce with arguments and bickering. Of corse if we live in an ideal world the models will be right with no downgrades and we will have a biting Easterly from December to the end of Feb.

Despite the recent mild winters i still look forward to the upcoming winter, i prefer winter to summer as i am in a good location whenever we get a Northerly or Easterly so if the set up is cold enough then i am pretty much guranteed snow.

[Schnee]

I've given up on Winter.....

Isn't the El Nino or La nina meant to be moderate again? Either of them mean we get a booring winter and the USA get a right stinker!!!

We need to cool the oceans down for our winters to be cooler. They're far too warm for the classic snowy set up to occur now.

[Damien]

I'll chip in (probably for one last time) seeing as tomorrow is the "big day"...:

It might be, because I'll probably be down in mild Exeter for much of that season!

However, if recent years are anything to go by, it will be more like this:

December/January/February- hardly any snow at all.

Response: "Why can't we get any cold snowy winters any more? Or an annual CET below 10C? Miserable things these mild winters!"

March/April: A fair amount of snow, and the March/April CET is "only" 0.5C above the 1971-2000 average.

Response: "This is awful, it's spring now! We should all be forgetting any desire for snow and wanting warm sunny weather! Those who fail to do this are clinging to the past- move on, move on, move on! How dare you enjoy these late snowfalls! We are owed a May with a CET of at least 15.2C after this misery!"

In the meantime the oil prices continue to go up, 80% because of repeated strikes and panic buying, and 20% because of the peak oil issue.

Sad truth is you will probably be right - based again on the patterns of recent years (mild winter then slightly cool/mildly wintry (early) spring).

Too right on oil + the economy too.

What's the "triumphed story" this year? Some big high over North-Western Europe? Bah. I don't believe Joe B&stardi for a second: and I think the MetO will get it wrong when they go "below" tomorrow.

Just as well I'll be in snowier plains anyway (CE).... And, unlike 'Captain Whingealot' (I can say this now all I want because I am off and won't need my Internet soon), I will enjoy the snow - not spend the entire winter posting about how 'meagre' or whatever it all is.

"Roll a snowball for the kids... Jesus Christ don't keep it hid."

"And the forecast's out

on the Met Office website,

read it on your monitor

burn it in your.... head."

Take care everyone.

Edited July 10, 2008 by Damien

[reef]

From the Metoffice today:

"Winter temperatures are more likely to be either near, or above average, than below average over much of the European region. For northern Europe, including the UK, Winter 2008/9 is likely to be less mild than last winter."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/winter2008_9/

The NAO prediction is +0.1 for winter 2008/09:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seasonal/regional/nao/

Not too inspiring really, but what else did we really expect? Anyone would be nuts to forecast a below average winter these days.

[VillagePlank]

Anyone would be nuts to forecast a below average winter these days.

But a genius if they called it right, though?

[Mammatus]

Very Mild, wet and windy. Little if any sunshine, very dull indeed.

TA

Edited July 10, 2008 by Tornado Alley

[SNOW-MAN2006]

My Early Winter Thoughts

This is the 2nd consecutive cool summer. The seas surrounding the UK are very cool and below average. This early indicator (although there is plenty of time for change) show a positive factor that could indicate the UK is heading into a average-below average winter. With a cooler atlantic low pressure systems wont form as strongly or as pronounced as what they would with a warmer atlantic. The seas surrounding Scandinavia are proving above average which suggests there may be an increased low pressure development over there. Should these trends develop over winter we may see an increased presence of low pressure to the the east feeding northerly winds over the UK. With northerly winds comes cold temperatures, and with the prescene of a low-pressure system it may be a year of above average snow fall.

This is turning out to be another cool summer. Last winter was quite cool but we didnt have the percipitation to match. The early indication factors that i look at are promising for a cooler winter again this year, but with still around 5 months, before we fall in the snow months, any sitituation could evolve that could alter our winter.

SNOW-MAN2006

[Damien]

The seas surrounding the UK are very cool and below average. This early indicator (although there is plenty of time for change) show a positive factor that could indicate the UK is heading into a average-below average winter.

It did in 2006. The winter was mild.

With a cooler atlantic low pressure systems wont form as strongly or as pronounced as what they would with a warmer atlantic. The seas surrounding Scandinavia are proving above average which suggests there may be an increased low pressure development over there. Should these trends develop over winter we may see an increased presence of low pressure to the the east feeding northerly winds over the UK.

Climatically correct, but "these trends" developed in early winter 2002/03, 2004/05 (bar the one hit-and-miss (for most miss admittedly - take that into account) in February 2005), 2005/06, etc.. All the winters, bar the aforementioned, were mild. (Certainly snowless - à la December 2002.)

With northerly winds comes cold temperatures, and with the prescene of a low-pressure system it may be a year of above average snow fall.

No offence - but an even worse argument IMHO. January 2004 delivered squat. So did a few other occasions when there were "much-hyped" northerlies (led by the usual crowd of naïve idiots like toad, I have and have no far of saying). Interest in northerlies then diminished, and were replaced by interest in easterlies - when these failed to deliver, like I mentioned above, are we now back to northerlies? Very unusual memory, I may say. (Kind of political, actually, *ahem*. )

Consider the last "northerlies" we had were, like, 5 years ago (wasn't snowless winter 2003/04 the most 'northerly' (not that I doubt it though) winter on record since something like 1969?, LOL), and they delivered squat then, are you really that naïve to think that they will deliver 5 years on with yet more warming having happened, LOL?

No offence, but your arguments will just get you burned - and, as a three-year somewhat 'veteran' of the boards, who has surely been burnt before (your neck of the woods, mate?), surely you should know this?

Come on guys. Surely someone must have the meteorological arguments to pull down these arguments.

I know it's sad; but it's true. Do you think I wanna sit here typing this; smashing peoples' dreams up like a Scrooge. :o

This is turning out to be another cool summer. Last winter was quite cool but we didnt have the percipitation to match. The early indication factors that i look at are promising for a cooler winter again this year, but with still around 5 months, before we fall in the snow months, any sitituation could evolve that could alter our winter.

Or even not evolve to alter our winter, as I explained above. :lol:

By the way - if I recall correctly, there wasn't much precipitation in winter 2003/04 (the January northerly) either. If there was - it fell as rain, as consistent with the current greenhouse models and the 'modern' era.

Bring back the '90s.

D.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Damien,

It pains me to say it but i agree with a lot of your post.

AI comclude that a below average winter cet wise is now almost impossible,what i would say is a 'mini cold spell of severe weather is still possible in either of the 3 main winter months.Sustainable cold lasting weeks is a thing of the past IMO,a 4 or 5 day cold spell is still possible though,and i think when it does come it will come from the east,northerlies just dont produce anymore due to the warmer seas and all the modified crap that comes with it.Easterlies can still produce though as the warmer seas have less of an impact.

[Damien]

Damien,

It pains me to say it but i agree with a lot of your post.

AI comclude that a below average winter cet wise is now almost impossible,what i would say is a 'mini cold spell of severe weather is still possible in either of the 3 main winter months.Sustainable cold lasting weeks is a thing of the past IMO,a 4 or 5 day cold spell is still possible though,and i think when it does come it will come from the east,northerlies just dont produce anymore due to the warmer seas and all the modified crap that comes with it.Easterlies can still produce though as the warmer seas have less of an impact.

Excellent post - I'll just add one thing: 4-5 days of sustainable cold are not worth looking forward too IMHO, for me. Well, maybe a bit, but they will be just so short, in the long run, and less likely with each mild Brown-Cameronian winter that goes by, that I will just come to not care about them.

Granted, they can be sweet - but I/we all want long, cold days of abundant snow not the short snaps of sleety nothingness they will eventually evolve into.

In Not By Fire... But By Ice, Robert Felix once told me he restrained a chapter on 'evolution' effects. He may be right - but the argument in reverse, of course, as well as in an (anti-)climatic effect, as global warming continues to consume us all in North-Western Europe.

Back to work we go....

[John Cox]

The coldest Mid summer month in 12 years (June)

Why not the coldest Mid winter month Dec/Jan 2009

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water :lol:

[TEITS]

Consider the last "northerlies" we had were, like, 5 years ago (wasn't snowless winter 2003/04 the most 'northerly' (not that I doubt it though) winter on record since something like 1969?, LOL), and they delivered squat then, are you really that naïve to think that they will deliver 5 years on with yet more warming having happened, LOL?

D.

Come on Damien you should know better than to make such sweeping statements about N,lys and to be honest im disappointed someone such as yourself can make such a basic mistake. As a child the first thing I learn't about meteorology was how airmasses bring weather and not wind direcion. This was taken from a very basic book on meteorology and is appropiate considering your post above.

You see N,lys can come from many synoptic set ups but can all bring wildly different weather. These can vary from a N,ly via an atlantic HP, passage of LP, Greenland HP. Now if you have a N,ly where the airmass is actually coming from the Atlantic and is riding over the top of the HP system and then pulling S over the UK all you are going to get is average temps with snowfall restricted to high ground. The other problem with this type of N,ly is it quickly changes to NW,ly then W,ly as LP rides over the top of the Atlantic HP.

Now we come to the daddy of cold winter synoptics and that is the Greenland HP system which basically shuts the door on LP systems moving into the UK with these usually forced S. If you get a N,ly this way then over a period of days the airmass becomes progressively colder with usually a series of cold fronts moving S, each bringing colder artic airmass. Now obviously the bonus of such a set up isn't just the bitterly cold temps, S,ly tracking LPs but the way such a pattern becomes prolonged and locked in.

This is the problem with our winters, we see very little blocking over Greenland and any blocking over Scandi isn't robust enough and secondly is usually to far S in latittude so we pick up a SE,ly sourced airmass rather than an airmass originating from siberia. This is why the ideal cold winter synoptics can clearly be seen on the 78/79, 62/63 winters and the ideal E,ly being that of Jan 87.

So saying a month is dominated by N,lys means very little because you need to look back at the archives to see exactly where these N,lys were coming from!

[Damien]

I'm never gonna get any sleep tonight. :lol:

As a child the first thing I learn't about meteorology was how airmasses bring weather and not wind direcion. This was taken from a very basic book on meteorology and is appropiate considering your post above.

When you were at school surely the textbooks didn't factor in greenhouse much - if at all?

You see N,lys can come from many synoptic set ups but can all bring wildly different weather. These can vary from a N,ly via an atlantic HP, passage of LP, Greenland HP. Now if you have a N,ly where the airmass is actually coming from the Atlantic and is riding over the top of the HP system and then pulling S over the UK all you are going to get is average temps with snowfall restricted to high ground. The other problem with this type of N,ly is it quickly changes to NW,ly then W,ly as LP rides over the top of the Atlantic HP.

Thank you for pointing out something that was extremely relevant to my argument that I had missed. Kudos.

(That being, of course... the weakness of northerly weather patterns in general - let alone in the modern age.)

Now we come to the daddy of cold winter synoptics and that is the Greenland HP system which basically shuts the door on LP systems moving into the UK with these usually forced S. If you get a N,ly this way then over a period of days the airmass becomes progressively colder with usually a series of cold fronts moving S, each bringing colder artic airmass. Now obviously the bonus of such a set up isn't just the bitterly cold temps, S,ly tracking LPs but the way such a pattern becomes prolonged and locked in.

This is the problem with our winters, we see very little blocking over Greenland and any blocking over Scandi isn't robust enough and secondly is usually to far S in latittude so we pick up a SE,ly sourced airmass rather than an airmass originating from siberia. This is why the ideal cold winter synoptics can clearly be seen on the 78/79, 62/63 winters and the ideal E,ly being that of Jan 87.

I was about to type 'We had these weather patterns a lot in the mid-2000s and they still failed to deliver' but then I saw your last point, re.: the south-easterly (often Turkish or in that (maritime) region), and I am inclined to agree on that: but I still believe current synoptics and climate change is going against a true easterly like that of the fabled 1987 or my beloved 1995/96.

When I say current synoptics I go back to one of my earlier arguments on the forum of how sheer rare these things are: let alone all the 'ideal' synoptics needed to give us a cold winter based on that weather pattern/(proposed)(?) synopsis. Believe me - a lot had to come together in the atmosphere to give us the mid-1990s. The mid-1980s may have been just a natural variable (am I phrasing that right? sorry - tired), although these synoptics did indeed play a role in it: as they did in much earlier winters. Going back to most recent example though - which I of course as you will know from talking to me in the past always recommend for citing/citation/example usage - of the mid-1990s - that was then: imagine how much sheer synoptics are going to have to come together in the age of 'greenhouse' to give us our fabled 'modern cold winter', LOL (I shouldn't laugh really though... this is like mental trauma for us all).

Factor into that as well the theory that the greenhouse effect may be actually changing our synoptics (I/we all mostly on here clearly say for the worst) so that such weather patterns - again let alone the more, shall I say... 'radical'(?) ones needed to get ourselves even a moderately decent cold set-up in the first place - become less prevalent in our meteorological future. You don't seem to have factored this in - your thoughts on that...?

So saying a month is dominated by N,lys means very little because you need to look back at the archives to see exactly where these N,lys were coming from!

Or the climate models to see where they're going to.

Or how rare such things are anyway, LOL!

[PersianPaladin]

People will see that the situation for our winters are very dire indeed.

Even last winter; when global temperatures had taken a very slight dip, SST's slightly cooler to our north and less stratospheric cooling anamolies upsetting prevailing patterns - we STILL had a poor winter. Why? Strong La Nina likely the cause along with warmer sub-arctic (more energy in the system) and more trough-disruption eastwards out of Greenland and into Iceland; preventing the influence of ridges developing and evolving for decent CAA our way.

Even with a weak La Nina; we need the AO\NAO profiles to be favourable in early winter so as to help set a decent circulation pattern and trend in the northern hemisphere; and most importantly....less energy around the sub-polar regions. However, I think that AGW has increased the strength of not only the various polar vortices that mark the boundary between the very frigid airmass and our latitudes; but also the degree of warm-air that is dragged-up by mid-Atlantic ridges that do develop on occasion - modifying our northerlies or adding secondary circulations along with higher SST's.

Edited July 11, 2008 by PersianPaladin

[Geordiesnow]

Damien,

It pains me to say it but i agree with a lot of your post.

AI comclude that a below average winter cet wise is now almost impossible,what i would say is a 'mini cold spell of severe weather is still possible in either of the 3 main winter months.Sustainable cold lasting weeks is a thing of the past IMO,a 4 or 5 day cold spell is still possible though,and i think when it does come it will come from the east,northerlies just dont produce anymore due to the warmer seas and all the modified crap that comes with it.Easterlies can still produce though as the warmer seas have less of an impact.

Although i don't know all the weather meteorology, i don't agree what i highlighted in bold. I still think we can still get below average winters(even if it is only 0.1 below average) if the set ups come along, just because the last few winters were mild does not mean this one will be. Although i think the winter will be mild i won't rule out a average winter. I don't agree Northerlies don't produce anymore, its those mild sectors that tend to ruin Northerlies as we are too close to the centre of the low pressure system.

Despite the doom and gloom form the Met Office forecast, it still does not stop me looking forward to Winter, its me fav season as we are in one of the best position for snow when the set ups come. If the Met Office said we may have a below average drier winter would people believe in them? I doubt it.

[mcweather]

Very much a blank canvas situation, themain thing is that there isn't a strong signal in thr Meto outlook for mild and Zonal. Indeed cooler and drier than last year would suggest relatively slack circulation to me which is a prerequisite for any chance of getting the Scandi or Greenland highs to exert a strong influence.

Essentially I think the Meto indices aren,t giving any strong signals in any direction and because of the background warming. They will always plump for near or slightly above average temperature wise in such a situation.

In some ways this must be the worst situation for the Meto to be in because if they have a strong signal then they can go with it. but when there isn't it's very much an anything could happen scenario. Which in turn gives them a greater chance of getting it wrong.

There are plenty of updates to come between now and Dec 1st and I await these with interest

[Turnedoutniceagain]

From the Metoffice today:

"Winter temperatures are more likely to be either near, or above average, than below average over much of the European region. For northern Europe, including the UK, Winter 2008/9 is likely to be less mild than last winter."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/winter2008_9/

The NAO prediction is +0.1 for winter 2008/09:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seasonal/regional/nao/

Not too inspiring really, but what else did we really expect? Anyone would be nuts to forecast a below average winter these days.

I'll take this "early guess" with the usual pinch of salt.

IMO they're (the METO) just leaving themselves open to ridicule by posting a forecast this far out.

I can't see what the point is, when they've got today's forecast wrong - I got wet at 10am when they said no rain 'til this afternoon. Grrrr......

[SP1986]

I'm not sure myself how this winter could be any less mild than last year, as it was generally a cold one. In this day and age, anything cooler than last year is relatively quite cold given the amount of frost that occurred last winter.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Im going to go for a winter on or slightly below the long-term average and this will be an indicator of things to come as we progress towards the Gleissberg minima. Bearing in mind that even a winter which goes back to the long-term average would be a good bit colder than what we are used to of late.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Im going to go for a winter on or slightly below the long-term average and this will be an indicator of things to come as we progress towards the Gleissberg minima. Bearing in mind that even a winter which goes back to the long-term average would be a good bit colder than what we are used to of late.

Hi Coastie, as you're probably our most Northerly member, you'll know about it before the rest of us

Has Winter started up there yet ??

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I'm not sure myself how this winter could be any less mild than last year, as it was generally a cold one. In this day and age, anything cooler than last year is relatively quite cold given the amount of frost that occurred last winter.

Are you being serious ste?

Last year,apart from a spell of inversion in Dec was mild mild mild with quite a few places in the country seeing little or zero snowcover.

[Iceni]

Are you being serious ste?

Last year,apart from a spell of inversion in Dec was mild mild mild with quite a few places in the country seeing little or zero snowcover.

And for the first time ever, not a single frost in January!!!

[kippure]

Im going to go for a winter on or slightly below the long-term average and this will be an indicator of things to come as we progress towards the Gleissberg minima. Bearing in mind that even a winter which goes back to the long-term average would be a good bit colder than what we are used to of late.

Here

An interesting read here for you coastie