Tropical Storm Fay

[Iceberg]

After a long wait this is finally an official TS.

Landfall looks to be US almost certainly with Cuba and a few other places thrown in.

Almost every model makes this a MAJOR hurricane before final landfall.

She is very large in size with a big envelop of 35+Kt winds.

Timewise we are not looking at a dolly that will go on and on and on.... This will almost certainly be a 5 or 6 day wonder, it has decent forward speed and it not likely to slow much.

Conditions are favourable for continual development with nothing to really hamper it.

SSTs are good to excellent, Shear is light and there is plenty of water vapour available.

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2000 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080815 1800 UTC

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2000 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080815 1800 UTC

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008

2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR

THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH

COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS

ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES

NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO

DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS. A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 69.4W AT 15/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

[Paranoid]

Well it's about time...

Are the models still progging this to high strength? The HWRF showed it barely maintaing TS status over much of it's life.

EDIT: Remind me to read all of the above posts before making a comment :unsure:

[Iceberg]

NHC are taking a path over alot of land hence the lower winds, however I think they will admit that they are being a tad low on the intensification stakes.

[Somerset Squall]

NHC are taking a path over alot of land hence the lower winds, however I think they will admit that they are being a tad low on the intensification stakes.

If that's the path Fay takes then I don't think the storm will become that strong at all, Haiti along with Cuba will probably disrupt the centre a fair bit I would have thought. Ernesto had a treck over land too and didn't have much chance to strengthen due to exceesive land interaction, and there is plenty of land interaction in the forecast track for Fay. However, that track is obviously not set in stone!

[johnholmes]

centre given as 1008mb on 18z analysis

[Cookie]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806.html

Storm Alert issued at 15 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 95% currently

Haiti

probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)

probability for TS is 90% currently

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours

the Bahamas

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[kold weather]

So far Hispaniola has *helped* the storm...

This is because the friction has actually tightened up the structure somewhat and has allowed the LLC to finally become totally dominant which has helped it finally get upgraded, not surprised this has happened and said it was a possiblity earlier.

Track appears to be about 275, radar still shows a track across the southern part of the island and Fay still has a very good inflow channel to the south. Storm should weaken aftrer the next 3-6hrs as it gets over higher mountions and that should reduce wind speeds even if the structure holds tight.

I'm not going to talk about track until I've seen the next 12-18hrs track.

[Cookie]

So far Hispaniola has *helped* the storm...

This is because the friction has actually tightened up the structure somewhat and has allowed the LLC to finally become totally dominant which has helped it finally get upgraded, not surprised this has happened and said it was a possiblity earlier.

Track appears to be about 275, radar still shows a track across the southern part of the island and Fay still has a very good inflow channel to the south. Storm should weaken aftrer the next 3-6hrs as it gets over higher mountions and that should reduce wind speeds even if the structure holds tight.

I'm not going to talk about track until I've seen the next 12-18hrs track.

whats Hispaniola?

[Iceberg]

It's the joint name for DR and Hiati.

There seems to be total agreement on the path at the moment. But I don't buy it to be honest.

As you say KW the path will depend alot on when it gets back to water again.

I have to admit I don't think Cuba will have much effect as a) I think it will pass to the west of most of the mountains and , it's speed and size will prevent very little disruption.

The end point of Fay looks to be fairly certainly the top bit of Florida where there is a weakness in the ridge which is at that point driving her north. This is generaly only 4 days away so their must be good confidence of this.

Intensity has been upped alot by NHC in the second update still nowhere near enough IMO but at least they make her a hurricane now.

INITIAL 16/0300Z 18.7N 70.8W 40 KT

12HR VT 16/1200Z 18.8N 72.9W 35 KT

24HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.5W 40 KT

36HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.8W 50 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA

48HR VT 18/0000Z 21.0N 79.5W 60 KT

72HR VT 19/0000Z 24.0N 81.5W 70 KT

96HR VT 20/0000Z 27.5N 83.0W 75 KT

120HR VT 21/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W 40 KT...INLAND

Recon are now heading back towards her, but this will be very limited as they will not be able to cross the land to get to her centre.

There is still good agreement from the models of at least a CAT 3 once it gets near Florida.

[Iceberg]

Latest ECM has it doing something of a loop crossing over to the east coast of Florida over the keys and back west over the north of Florida. Bizarre without any support. But interesting from it's freakyness.

[johnholmes]

centre at 1008mb on the 00z analysis

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 16 Aug, 2008 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 100% currently

Haiti

probability for TS is 80% currently

Cuba

probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)

probability for TS is 95% currently

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)

probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 45 hours

Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Jamaica

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[johnholmes]

1007mb at 06z

[Iceberg]

There are signs that Fay might be going on a dual personality.

The lump of convection that would normally make up the CDO is strengthening over water, but without the LLCC which is still going on the NHC track.

The terrain and the lack of full stacking and coupling might now be telling.

We could then be in the situation of either the LLCC reforming convection(which it should do giving the conditions. Or the CDO reforming a new LLCC. Or even both but unlikely.

Worth watching over the next few hours.

[Calrissian]

Fay looking really magnificent as it gets off that awful island.

*I've seen a few charts whacking Fay up to a Cat3/4 by Tuesday. Yes, that seems unlikely, but even the latest NHC discussion makes mention of it, and notes we should watching this one closely.

Of course, its now Saturday, and if Florida has a major cane offshore within 3 days, that doesn't leave much time for evac.

Calrissian: awaiting another gold medal B)

[Iceberg]

A Map showing the current progged centre. Which hopefully explains what I ment a bit more.

[Jack Wales]

Although some dry air is feeding into the NW quadrant, probably due to interaction with Hispaniola, Fay seems to be shaping up quite well.

whats Hispaniola?

It's the island between PR and Cuba which contains the Dominican R and Haiti.

The path over the next 24 hours is crucial, if Fay makes landfall on Cuba's east coast, she could run up the length of the island which would weaken or even dissipate her.

Alternatively if she runs parallel to the south coast, the sst's are 30 - 31C and Fay could strengthen rapidly. If so, by the time she crosses western Cuba the path should be SE to NW meaning interaction with land would be minimal with further time for strengthening in the GOM. It's quite bizarre but 48 hours from now we could be looking at no system at all or a category 3+.

[johnholmes]

centre still at 1007mb on the 12z chart

[tinybill]

http://www.ibiseye.com/

looks like florida is in line for a hit with fay

[Iceberg]

She as very little convection at the moment near the centre and needs to get better sharpish.

GFDL has thrown an interesting track up the eastern Seaboard as a CAT 3.

Recon is in there atm and has found 1006 pressure and winds inexcess of 50Kt

181830 1909N 07430W 6966 03161 0066 +084 +084 194005 005 038 003 03

181900 1907N 07430W 6969 03157 0062 +088 +088 205006 008 040 001 00

181930 1905N 07430W 6964 03162 0061 +089 +089 197009 010 040 004 00

182000 1904N 07430W 6968 03158 0069 +082 +082 201005 008 041 004 00

182030 1902N 07430W 6964 03165 0062 +089 +089 198005 008 041 005 00

182100 1900N 07430W 6968 03160 0061 +089 +089 218012 016 050 003 00

182130 1858N 07429W 6954 03175 0088 +068 +068 228015 019 047 012 00

182200 1857N 07429W 6964 03165 0098 +061 +061 241023 025 050 014 00

182230 1855N 07429W 6960 03166 0090 +066 +066 234021 024 052 018 00

182300 1853N 07429W 6953 03169 0106 +052 +052 205019 024 054 026 03

182330 1852N 07431W 6973 03145 0113 +048 +048 229024 027 056 032 00

[tinybill]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5day#contents

reg fay deff giving florida a vist at the moment

[Iceberg]

Fay is doing well in the last hour. Convection has just found it's way to the centre.

Recon also has the following which would allow for an upgrade to 45Kt if they so wished with a slight fall in pressure.

Circulation and banding is fantastic for a TS that has spent so long over land. As soon as the convection wraps round and a solid CDO forms intensification should be quick. I am expecting to wake up to something quite spectacular.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008

A. 16/19:40:40Z

B. 19 deg 08 min N

075 deg 03 min W

C. 850 mb 1470 m

D. 45 kt

E. 160 deg 066 nm

F. 233 deg 029 kt

G. 152 deg 045 nm

H. 1006 mb

[kold weather]

Land interaction will probably prevent this from doing major strengthening IMO for the enxt 24hrs again, not to say that this can't be a hurricane after it briefly goes over land again over the SE tip of Cuba. The best shot this has isn the 24-36hrs it has over the gulf, its not quite a classic track but I do recall Charley doing some beefy strengthening on a fairly close track and there are some interesting comprasions in terms of the upper conditions. This won't be as strong as Charley was when it hit Cuba but I wouldn't be too surprised if some similar rates of strengthening occurs at some point with Fay. In terms of strength, really tough to say, right now I'd go 90kts at landfall but its hard to say, if it doesn't spend as much time over water may barely be a hurricane, spends a little more time over water and could be a major.

[bazookabob]

Hey guys, just a question from an amateur here! I was looking on weather.com's storm tracker and it appeared that Fay was upgraded to a tropical storm whilst over land in the Dominican Republic. I know it was marginal to being over sea, but it then seemed to move inland for quite some time. My confusion is because I thought any intensification would occur over the sea and the very best it could hope for would be to maintain strength over land? Is this only true for more powerful systems, or can the storm still draw strength from water beneath its outer edges, or is it something else altogether? Would be massively appreciative of any clarification you lot can provide!

Thanks,

bob.

[Cookie]

alert from earlier I expect a new one soon

Storm Alert issued at 16 Aug, 2008 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Haiti

probability for TS is 100% currently

Cuba

probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours

Jamaica

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

the Cayman Islands

probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 40% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)

probability for TS is 40% currently

Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.