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Tropical Storm Fay


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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Systems can sometimes strengthen overland though usually there are very complex issues behind that. As for upgrading systems overland, the key is to have a closed circulation. Sometimes the friction from land actually helps to tighten up the low level circulation and helps to close it off, thus the NHC can upgrade it. Thats not what happened to Fay however as it had a closed LLC develop in the Mona passage, its just the data to prove that didn't come in till Fay was nearly onland.

Anyway the new tonight is the fact that recon is showing a due west motion. Most models at this stage have motion of at least 280 degrees. For now it may not be a big deal as the general synoptic evolution loosk to be pretty well nailed on but if this track holds up for the next 9-12hrs then the forecasted track may have to be shifted further west which has big ramifications.

This is because further gives it a good deal more time over water both before Cuban landflal and also before US landfall. Also a track on the southern side of the guidence would also allow Fay more time over the very ripe waters just south of Cuba that have explosive warmth. Whilst the layers are not stacked again thanks to land interaction the low level circulation is slowing so the miod level circulation may catch up. If that happens I see no reason, other then breif land interaction with the SE tip of Cuba, that we won't see rapid strengthening.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Looks as if she will miss the tip of Cuba and stay out to sea now.

Some good convection will slight intensification (down to 1004mb now). Winds have been found to 50KT again, but these where rain contaminated.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

shown just below the southern coast of Cuba at 00z with a centre of 1005mb

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Looks like its back on the forecasted path so seems like Fay is wobbling about somewhat. Convection is deep and there are hints of an inner core trying to form at the present time. Watch this in the gulf of Mexico, outflow is really good and there is an upper high, wouldn't be at all surprising to see this come in as a 965mb hurricane with high end cat-2 winds. Its more agressive then the NHC forecasts but this is a very good pattern.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

She's going to be a baby compared to what TD13W may become :nonono:

Still they are interesting tracks.

What is steering her to the North? Dont most GoM Hurricanes at this time of year spear off to the NW?

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

Florida has got a state of emergency out according to fox news

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,405103,00.html

new update

Storm Alert issued at 17 Aug, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

Jamaica

probability for TS is 35% currently

the Cayman Islands

probability for TS is 35% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Radar shows the centre over water, with quite a nice pronounced centre as well.

Convection has started to become more symetrical and there is evidence of a solid CDO forming.

Tracks are all over the place atm.

Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

just press fwd to run the sequence.

I don't think many folk would wish for this track!!!

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

Data Time:2008-Aug-19 200 EDT Lat/Lng:Lat: 25.4 Lng: 82.100 Wind Speed:69 (sustained) 86 (gusts) mph Pressure:NA mb Category:TS

Heading:North Bearing:-5.6 degrees Forward Speed:NA mph Hurricane Radius:0 miles Tropical Radius:120 miles

http://www.ibiseye.com/

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Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Radar shows the centre over water, with quite a nice pronounced centre as well.

Convection has started to become more symetrical and there is evidence of a solid CDO forming.

Tracks are all over the place atm.

Hi Iceberg, I dont quite follow what you mean? I see a little convection, but not much, and, perhaps I am looking at the wrong thing I dont really see any CDO? In fact it looks quite disorganised at this stage.

Perhaps you can show a few graphics explain what you mean? :)

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Fay is looking quite poor at the moment, there is less deep convection near the centre than there was earlier and the deepest convection is located in outer rainbands which overall don't look as impressive either. The centre is indeed currently over water so strengthening should occur but development may be dampened by the fact that moderate shear is now impinging on Fay. Still some uncertainty in regards to where Fay will track after Cuba, the NHC notes the model spread, all the way from Fay moving northeastwards through Florida and back out into the open atlantic to a northwestwards track into the Gulf. The latter needs to be closely watched as this would mean Fay has longer over open water which would mean the storm may become stronger than expected (NHC currently are suggesting a peak of 70kts). The offical forecast splits the difference and forcasts Fay to make landfall on the west coast of Florida then push northwards inland until dissipation. A case of wait and see as always, but for now, IMO, stengthening will be slow.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

centre down a touch again at 12z, just off the south coast of Cuba at 1003mb

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Storm Alert issued at 17 Aug, 2008 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 95% currently

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 90% currently

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Cayman Islands

probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Haven't much time for an update but track is a touch to the south of the NHC presently but not by much, still even 0.3 degrees further west would shift landfall for Florida a good 30-50 miles further north.

Fay is being sheared by an upper level low just to its west but its forecasted to move WSW over the Yucatan and elongate out around 18-24hrs time. By that time Fay should be moving into the gulf away from the ULL into a better set-up, indeed there are hints a weak upper level high may try and form over the gulf between 24-48hrs and so if this tracks further west and gets more time over water like a few models suggest then Fay may strengthen pretty rapidly.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

new update

Storm Alert issued at 17 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 95% currently

the Cayman Islands

probability for TS is 80% currently

the United States

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 95% currently

the United States

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

the Cayman Islands

probability for TS is 55% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Yup , that appeared a jolly good 'jump' to the north! it may just be that the convection is strongest over the waters (at night) so the 'core' switched over to the north coast of Cuba.

If it continues North then that will have it's own interests (South Carolinas?) but if she were to resume her westerly tack and thread the straights then we have a very different prospect over the Gulf waters. This is the time of year we've seen a few 'canes 'bomb' on hitting the Gulf waters.

Lets give her a few hours over open waters in daylight eh?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

re this comment

but she is nolonger going to hit the Florida west coast....

no idea why you say that as the latest guidance says it will and the Trop Storm warning covers the west coast as well as other parts of Florida, the track from them still shows her into the west side of Florida?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

It does and I was maybe a little hasty (as treebeard once said). But NHC have admitted in there detailed analysis at 10am that they might well have to adjust their path east. It all depends on what happens to the centre over today.

The main problem being that they are unable to overfly Cuba so getting a fix on the centre is very difficult.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

To reinforce the issue of not finding a centre, here's the plots, as you can see the paths are all wierd and wonderful, the starting points don't match at all and it's a total mess at this time frame.

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