Tropical Storm Fay

[kold weather]

re this comment

but she is nolonger going to hit the Florida west coast....

no idea why you say that as the latest guidance says it will and the Trop Storm warning covers the west coast as well as other parts of Florida, the track from them still shows her into the west side of Florida?

Problem is John the models have done an horrific job forecasting the ULL, this is still shearing Fay and the elongating the LLC Sw-NE at the moment which is allowing easterly wobbles in a general NNW track.

Whilst its still odds on it hits west Florida IMO nearly all the models are too far west right now given the NNw/N motion has kicked in sooner than forecasted. This happens quite often in this set-up as the models do over-egg the western side of ridges for some reason in this part of the world.

To re-enforce the point about the ULL, the 12z GFS yesterday has the ULL moving WSW and weakening, but over the last 6hrs it has moved N and kept its strength and thats a HUGE difference in terms of the tropics between a hurricane and a sheared TS.

Just got to always be prepared for the unexpected, hence why I love the tropics so much just don't know what your going to get sometimes and even the models are made to look useless at times!

IMO the center is probably a little SW on the radar position given the shear is likely to unstack the circulation a little. Landfall IMO most likely in SW.Flordia now

Edited August 18, 2008 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

I agree KW, I'd go for a SE florida/ Keys hit atm, as the LLCC will be dragged by the deep convection to keep it on a more northerly course.

I number of models then bring in a recurve back west after it leaves Florida and the ridge strengthens and brings it eastwards. ECM partially so and GFS more so.

[Coast]

[Iceberg]

50 people have died in Haiti from Fay so far.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7564611.stm

I am sure the figure will be higher than that for her total impact.

Doppler shows are nicely now as well

[Mondy]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...11&loop=yes

[Iceberg]

Thanks Delta, When I try and use the loop my work PC dies (Java issue I think ! ). So I wasn't able to post up the link. It should show the centre as it moves from Cuba nicely.

If anyone has time follow the GFS 06Z link, and watch the GFS predicted path for Fay.

It basically crosses florida, stops off the Florida east coast over the Gulf Stream, intensifies crosses florida east to west back again into the GOM, intensifies a bit more and then crashes into the US underbelly.

Except for the fact that it has some support this would be unbelievable.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Iceberg]

It's now back offshore at 23.3 81.2 Aircraft recon has identified 50Kt surface winds and it has been upped, pressure at 1001mb, a small area of convection is now around the centre. Current Direction NWN.

[Jack Wales]

It basically crosses florida, stops off the Florida east coast over the Gulf Stream, intensifies crosses florida east to west back again into the GOM, intensifies a bit more and then crashes into the US underbelly.

Except for the fact that it has some support this would be unbelievable.

I remember hurricane Jean (I think) doing something similar a few years back, she made landfall in the Dominican, looped north into the Atlantic but then did a complete 360 and made landfall in eastern florida.

[Iceberg]

It would certainly be nice to see (remember the damage and loss of life it would cause as well).

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key/HTML/obs.php Land reports southern florida.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PLSF1 Bouy station should be directly in the path tomorrow according to NHC).

The centre plotted on the latest visual I can find

[Mondy]

Actually, the centre is easily visible on this loop.

Looks to me to be a system splitting in two, with perhaps some re-organising around the centre.

If the centre is where it is, then it may well just skim passed western Florida and form rapidly in the GoM. Tricky storm for the forecasters!

Tropical storm conditions in downtown Miami

[bazookabob]

NHC 8am EDT update:

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...100 KM/HR...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF

FAY MOVES OVER WATER. FAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING HURRICANE

STRENGTH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT

REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8

INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12

INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND

MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA

TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS

OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA

[opplevelse]

...Looks to me to be a system splitting in two, with perhaps some re-organising around the centre.

If the centre is where it is, then it may well just skim passed western Florida and form rapidly in the GoM. Tricky storm for the forecasters!...

Yep that looks bizaare! lots of convection but very little organisation ... perhaps that is a slight eye just off the coast ... still doesnt look pretty

[johnholmes]

the 06z analysis still shows the centre on the southern coast of Cuba at 1003mb

[Marcus_surfer]

Looks a big tropical storm!

[johnholmes]

at 12z its on the north coast of Cuba centre 1003mb

my estimate would be for it to go either over Florida Keys or perhaps a touch east of there.

mind you I'm no expert in predicting hurricane/tropical storm tracks!

this from CPC as the NOAA site is very very slow to downlaod for me recently

FOR MONDAY AUGUST 18 - WEDNESDAY AUGUST 20: A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE EAST FLORIDA COAST, SLOWING DOWN AS IT APPROACHES GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE. WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS PROJECTED ALOFT, THIS STORM SHOULD DRIFT ERRATICALLY NEAR THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. ENHANCED BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS, ESPECIALLY IF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE PREDICTED HIGH TO ITS NORTH INTENSIFY. RESIDENTS FURTHER UP THE COAST FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM

Edited August 18, 2008 by johnholmes

[Iceberg]

That would seem to support the GFS possible recurve into the GOM if the high pressure builds sooner and larger over the eastern states. IT doesn't sound good for coastal regions though. IT also goes against NHC guidence of a western Florida coast hit, rather than eastern seaboard.

Latest Vortex measure surface winds of just under 60Kt's so very close to hurricane strength now.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 15:33Z

Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)

Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Identifier: Fay1

Mission Number: 17

Observation Number: 09

A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 15:11:00Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°39'N 81°32'W (23.65N 81.53W)

B. Center Fix Location: 65 miles (104 km) to the SSE (166°) from Key West, FL, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,448m (4,751ft) at an unspecified standard level

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 96 nautical miles (110 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 155° at 56kts (From the SSE at ~ 64.4mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: Was not in vortex message

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:24:50Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the northwest quadrant at 15:24:10Z

[Hurricane Andrew]

very good live streaming cam from the keys

http://webcam.keywestcam.net

[johnholmes]

I thought Florida was supposed to be sunny?!

[kold weather]

What we are seeing here is a classic stacking problem.

Radar shows a decent circulation at mid levels to the south of the keys BUT recon shows the LLC is clearly further to the south of that heading NW/NNW between the two fixes. This is clearly shear related with the ULL to the west still shearing the mid level and its convection to the east.

The tricky thing to call now is the track. Convection movement as well as the MLC suggests a motion close to north and yet the LLC is moving NW.

My best bet is for the center to eventually take a jog and rotate underneath the MLC (though both will probably meet in the middle eventually).

Despite that its hard to ignore the recon fixing movement at NW despite the system appearing to be further east. Given the LLC fixes I will still go with a landfall of the LLC feature in the extreme SW Florida after going through the keys and then with a NNE motion it should get back into the Atlantic again...

Edited August 18, 2008 by kold weather

[johnholmes]

not sure if you have this site

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtg...icane%20warning

or this which has a link into the Key West weather service and will be updated at 3pm their time

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key/

or this

http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.php?mz=gmz032

Edited August 18, 2008 by johnholmes

[Katherine]

The NHC's website has totally ceased to be. It is bereft of life.

[Mondy]

What a mess!

Edited August 18, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[Mondy]

1100 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

THE CENTER OF FAY HAS MOVED INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SATELLITE

IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA SHOW STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE

EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM...BUT LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN

SEMICIRCLE. THIS ASYMMETRY IS LIKELY DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL

SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT...WITH

RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. BASED ON THIS AND

SIMILAR DOPPLER RADAR WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO

50 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE

HUNTER IS 1003 MB.

FAY HAS BEEN MOVING IN FITS AND STARTS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF

DAYS...WITH THE CENTER MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST

DURING THE PAST 6 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/11. FAY IS

ENTERING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO AND FLORIDA CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING

THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BEYOND 36-48 HR...THE

TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE

BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH

OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE

RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION BY FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE GENERALLY

NORTHWARD NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN

UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST FAY TO

TURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND STALL BY 120 HR...WHILE

THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION TOWARD THE

FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER NOTED

THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE

OPERATIONAL RUNS...SO THESE OUTLIERS ARE IGNORED FOR THE MOMENT.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE NORTHWARD SCENARIO...LYING

JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF

THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OVER THE

SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA IN A LITTLE OVER 24 HR.

FAY IS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND

THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL FOR THE

NEXT 24-48 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR AND THE CURRENT

STRUCTURE...WILL LIKELY PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...

THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF

MODELS MAKING FAY A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THUS...THE

INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. AFTER LANDFALL...FAY SHOULD

SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR. THIS INTENSITY

FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AND THERE IS A DISTINCT CHANCE FAY

MIGHT NOT REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY IF

IT MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...SIMILAR TO Charley IN 2004...SMALL

DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN

WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 23.6N 81.5W 50 KT

12HR VT 19/0000Z 24.6N 81.8W 55 KT

24HR VT 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.1W 65 KT

36HR VT 20/0000Z 27.8N 82.0W 50 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 20/1200Z 29.3N 81.8W 40 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 21/1200Z 31.5N 81.5W 35 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 22/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W 25 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 23/1200Z 35.5N 82.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

[Iceberg]

Unlike some storms this is really packing in the winds as per the instructions on the tin.

A bouy that is nearing the centre is upto nearly 50Kt.

Tbh I think this is a 60Kt storm at the moment and has a very wide area of strong tropical winds.

182800 2416N 08105W 8429 01521 0044 +160 +160 162049 050 046 001 00

182830 2416N 08104W 8423 01527 0044 +162 +162 165050 051 045 001 00

182900 2416N 08102W 8428 01524 0046 +164 +164 161048 049 044 001 00

182930 2416N 08101W 8433 01519 0043 +169 +169 163052 052 045 000 00

183000 2416N 08059W 8427 01529 0048 +167 +167 165051 052 045 000 00

183030 2416N 08058W 8431 01526 0053 +162 +162 164052 054 046 005 00

183100 2416N 08056W 8427 01528 0064 +142 +142 164055 061 045 015 00

Florida Keys Hourly Weather Roundup as of 200 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

City Sky/Wx Tmp DP RH Wind Pres Remarks

Key West International HVY RAIN 77 76 96 N33G51 Kts 29.64F SB 1/2

Boca Chica NAS not avbl

Marathon Airport Light Rain 79 77 94 SE28G40 Kts 29.70F

Key Largo Handar not avbl

Miami International HVY RAIN 74 71 91 E14G25 Kts 29.92S OG

Miami Beach not avbl

[tinybill]

just checked my eye of the storm program land fall just near fort myers plus i see their another one coming

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Edited August 18, 2008 by tinybill