Tropical Storm Fay

[Iceberg]

All the Global Models perform a sharp re-curve back into Florida. With GFS ECM making her a major hurricane hit on the east coast. All very strange. Tropicals not having any of it and basically kill her.

She is IMO going through moderate strengthening atm.

[johnholmes]

look at the UK Met O track, must have had a seizure or something!

seems to have lost its reliability today

[Iceberg]

I think it's rather more than the 50Kt progged by NHC

SMKF1 C 1900 24.63 -81.11 65 19 130 52 57

The bouy above is now measuring 52Kt sustained gusting to 57Kt.

I'd normally agree John but there is growing support for it. The 12Z ECMWF would be a real killer.

Saying that the Meto model is absolute pants at TS forecasting, compared to ECMWG which IMO always seems to be the best Global.

I believe I can see an eye forming on Doppler as well.

[Iceberg]

Pressure is now starting to drop quite rapidly and is now sub 1000 at 998mb

192000 2430N 08110W 6708 03453 0000 +090 +090 172041 044 056 003 03

192100 2433N 08114W 6681 03485 9994 +092 +092 149043 045 999 999 03

192130 2435N 08116W 6721 03438 9994 +096 +096 146046 048 999 999 03

192200 2436N 08118W 6682 03480 9991 +093 +093 161036 040 999 999 03

192230 2437N 08120W 6657 03511 9982 +096 +096 142025 027 999 999 03

192300 2438N 08123W 6733 03415 9985 +101 +099 123033 037 999 999 03

192330 2440N 08124W 6693 03466 9986 +096 +091 124030 037 999 999 03

192400 2442N 08123W 6653 03512 9987 +090 +080 135028 030 999 999 03

192430 2443N 08122W 6662 03510 9999 +089 +079 138031 031 999 999 03

Key West is very near the centre now(but still outside the center) and is recording rapidly falling pressure at 1000mb

[Somerset Squall]

Are the surface pressure quite high in the region? Fay was at 45kts with a pressure of 1003mb, more indicative of 35kts really? Am I right in saying if pressures are high in the region then this is another negative factor for strengthening (along with shear currently, though this is easing)?

[johnholmes]

Saying that the Meto model is absolute pants at TS forecasting

not according to comments I've seen within NOAA, they are usually quite happy to take its guidance in the broad scale it seems.

Quite what has happened on this run I don't know, its vastly different to anything its showed before. Indeed, unlike ECMWF, which had the storm recurving way out into the Atlantic a few days ago, it had it very close to what seems about to happen.

[Iceberg]

200430 2420N 08155W 8423 01476 9977 +177 +170 336004 005 020 002 00

997 and still falling.

John, I don't know what NOAA say but NHC give very little respect to it. I get the updates from there FTP site and frankly they are a waste of time It doesn't initialise them very well, often not at all (at TS level) and often not at the right location.. KW might back me up on this ?

don't know about the HP tbh.

[Iceberg]

A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 20:02:40Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°22'N 81°51'W (24.37N 81.85W)

B. Center Fix Location: 14 miles (22 km) to the SSW (198°) from Key West, FL, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,404m (4,606ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 108° at 61kts (From the ESE at ~ 70.2mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 88 nautical miles (101 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,539m (5,049ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the east quadrant at 18:31:20Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY

[Jack Wales]

Fay now appears to be strengthening somewhat however she is interacting more with land and still being inhibited by shear. I think she'll make landfall as a powerful TS (65mph).

[Mondy]

Amazing difference in a few hours

As I thought, it's re-grouped and may well skim western Florida, with the warmer waters of the GoM aiding strength. Has to be a Cat 1 now.

[johnholmes]

amazing what the warm Gulf waters will do!

and its almost certainly going to be up the west coast at least for a while, so if we look back 3 5 or 7 days ago which one(model) got it right?

[Jack Wales]

000

WTNT31 KNHC 182041

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008

500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF

FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING

MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING

AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND

PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST

IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH

SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON

SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE

FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY

TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD

SOUND BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS

AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST

NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR NEAR KEY WEST

FLORIDA AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.

A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED

TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION TUESDAY AND

TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FAY AWAY

FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN

COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND FAY IS

FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE

SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM

FROM THE CENTER. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY FLORIDA

RECENTLY REPORTED 2-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR...AND

AN ELEVATION OF 159 FEET. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SAND KEY

FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 71 MPH...115 KM/HR...AT AN

ELEVATION OF 149 FT.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE

IN KEY WEST IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE

SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2

TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO

5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA...WITH STORM TOTAL

AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE

THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF

4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE

POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA

PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN

THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..AND

THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...24.6 N...81.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

We have Hurricane Fay!!

[johnholmes]

centre given as 1001mb at 18z

[Jack Wales]

amazing what the warm Gulf waters will do!

and its almost certainly going to be up the west coast at least for a while, so if we look back 3 5 or 7 days ago which one(model) got it right?

Here are the models from the 15th...

Models 15/8/08

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

We have Hurricane Fay!!

Hi SB, I don't see how, I can't see a defined eye on that image.

[summer blizzard]

Neogaps looks to have handled this storm well.

Its a water vapour image, you can clearly see where the pinhole eye has formed.

[Roger J Smith]

Fay has rapid development potential, could reach a low-end cat-2 within 12 hours and if it were to stay out over the Gulf beyond that, cat-3 not impossible, but I think it will swerve inland fairly quickly tomorrow, possibly very close to Charley's 2004 landfall in Punta Gorda (between Naples and Sarasota). Lucky for them it will not be cat-4 as with Charley.

After that, it is likely to move north over land for several days, possibly hitting water or getting close to re-emerging but eventually it will be swept up towards Baffin Island or Greenland in a strong SSW flow aloft. Parts of it may break off and head more east than north, so it may be said that remnants are approaching the British Isles at some distant future point, but the bulk of the energy is likely to head more north than east.

Edited August 18, 2008 by Roger J Smith

[Gorky]

There are quite a few models predicting Fay to get caught by a redeveloping ridge and stalling either over northern florida or the just off the east coast. The Euro reintensifies it and sends it into Georgia after a fair bit of intensification. The GFS crosses it back into the Gulf where it reintensifies as it heads towards Louisiana!

[Jack Wales]

There are quite a few models predicting Fay to get caught by a redeveloping ridge and stalling either over northern florida or the just off the east coast. The Euro reintensifies it and sends it into Georgia after a fair bit of intensification. The GFS crosses it back into the Gulf where it reintensifies as it heads towards Louisiana!

Yes, I've rarely seen such a large track envelope for a tropical cyclone...

5 day track

Edited August 18, 2008 by Jack Wales

[Cookie]

latest update from me, is it a hurricane?

Storm Alert issued at 18 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Cuba

probability for TS is 65% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours

Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)

probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[bazookabob]

Wow... i'm watching the live stream from Channel 4 news from CBS in Miami... within the last 5 minutes their studio meteorologist has come on looking a bit bemused, saying that a hurricane hunter aircraft has just reported a pressure of 977mb, sustained flight level winds of 75kts in the northwest quadrant of the storm, and a ragged eye wall forming. So it definitely looks like this is on the way to becoming a hurricane, even if that pressure reading is inaccurate. Also, in the past hour the local doppler radar has shown a definite shift in the centre of rotation to the east, though they are saying this is probably just a temporary wobble.

bob

[Cookie]

Wow... i'm watching the live stream from Channel 4 news from CBS in Miami... within the last 5 minutes their studio meteorologist has come on looking a bit bemused, saying that a hurricane hunter aircraft has just reported a pressure of 977mb, sustained flight level winds of 75kts in the northwest quadrant of the storm, and a ragged eye wall forming. So it definitely looks like this is on the way to becoming a hurricane, even if that pressure reading is inaccurate. Also, in the past hour the local doppler radar has shown a definite shift in the centre of rotation to the east, though they are saying this is probably just a temporary wobble.

bob

you got a link mate?

im just in from work and playing catch up

[Somerset Squall]

latest update from me, is it a hurricane?

No, SB got a little excited :lol: .

[Cookie]

winds are picking up in the last 15 mins on the live stream im watching

[Calrissian]

you got a link mate?

im just in from work and playing catch up

see: http://cbs4.com/

The first link is 'tracking fay', thats the tv stream.

---

Hurricane city will have a live show tonight at 2am. That is worth seeing, if you can stay up that late.

--

As for this rumoured pressure reading of 970ish, hmm, it'd not be too unexpected. The water there is 30/31C, very toasty indeed.

Calrissian: would like a pet raccoon