Tropical Storm Fay

[kold weather]

By the way that recon information can't be right, recons not even reached the center of this system yet!!!

There does appear to be a ragged eyewall forming right now though based on Key West radar. Center of circulation is not directly under the convective burst but instead on the SE side of the convection.

Indeed data from Key West suggests the center has nearly stalled over thier location with radar even suggesting a slow drift to the NE over the last few hours. Whether thats a wobble or not is hard to say and we need to watch it for a few hours longer.

looks like this is going to go to the east of most guidence if this current motion keeps up. Also its strengthening but with the center a little away from thje deepest convection any strengthening is only slowly going to occur. Still there is an inner core forming and thats usually a sign of a strong tropical storm, probably between 55-60kts right now would be much guess.

Looks like the models have under-estimated the upper trough digging down, remember Charley 2004 bending further east than expected, that could also be happening here.

If you want a comprasaion system Irene 1999 is a good one as it progged a west coast hit, instead it went right through far south Florida back into the Atlantic.

Edited August 18, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

see: http://cbs4.com/

The first link is 'tracking fay', thats the tv stream.

thanks

[Calrissian]

ohh, there is also 'WESH tv'.

The direct wmp cut/paste link is: http://mfile.akamai.com/12890/live/reflector:57420.asx

Quite a good show too.

---

Calrissian: sleepy.

[Cookie]

some one I know who use to work with me at the co-op was evacuated earlier today

[bazookabob]

you got a link mate?

im just in from work and playing catch up

hi mate, yeah this is it though the live stream is only available when theyre actually doing coverage of the storm.... although that is most of the time to be honest!

http://cbs4.com/

[Cookie]

thanks, anyways im calling a night, im not sure if this storm will make it to be a hurricane. though

anyways will check back in the morning time will tell

[dvdfjojo]

Some nice fast clouds on the Key West webcam - http://webcam.keywestcam.net/

Also, check out the GFS 18z 'beer run' and watch where Fay goes :lol: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ - now that's crazy!

[Gray-Wolf]

Some nice fast clouds on the Key West webcam - http://webcam.keywestcam.net/

Also, check out the GFS 18z 'beer run' and watch where Fay goes :lol: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ - now that's crazy!

That would be an interesting 'turn' of events dvdfjojo! If she did that then surely the Gulf waters would pump her up to CAT 3 or beyond and, the last few frames suggest a 'straffing run' along the oil installations along the Gulf 's coastline :o .......just when oil prices were falling!

[Iceberg]

I don't think any models have done well with Fay tbh, ECM had been patchy, GFDL has had it's moments, but she's made mugs out of everybody including the NHC ! :lol:

Pressure is at 994mb with conservative winds of 50Kt (tbh it's probably a bit higher judging that bouys recorded 53Kt but hey.)

Looking at doppler due to lack of sat imagery the centre is clearly visible, it's also going NE which is not to the NHC plan.

It could be a jog but this is also the path the GFDL takes it.

Alot of other paths take it up Florida which will really weaken the storm.

Both GFDL, ECM and GFS take it quickly into the Atlantic where rapid stengthening occurs as it just sits out there building itself up to major hurricane (GFDL takes it to 114Kt).

We then have either a Florida hit again maybe near Orlando, or northwards. Or a Georgia/S.Carolina hit.

This could just be the warm up act for what's to follow. Particularly if it's Orlando crosses Florida again and ends up in the GOM where the steering patterns are far from decided.

[Iceberg]

More intensification and tightening of the eye.

Recon has just recorded lots of sub 990mb readings down to 987mb. This is low enough to support a CAT 1 now, if the winds have time to respond to the pressure drop. The centre is now just off the coast of Florida.

[Coast]

By www.naplesnews.com

Originally published 2:08 a.m., Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Updated 2:33 a.m., Tuesday, August 19, 2008

At 2 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located about 45 miles south of Naples. Fay is moving toward the north near 7 mph and a slightly east of north motion is expected just prior to landfall, the National Weather Service reports.

Maximum sustained winds from Fay remain around 60 mph, but forecasters say the storm could still approach hurricane strength immediately before landfall. Tropical storm force winds stretch outward up to 125 miles from the center and a 40 mph gust was reported at Molasses Reef. Most of Collier and south Lee counties should already be feeling the effects of Fay; the storm has already brought wind, rain and possibly tornadoes to all of south Florida as far north as Melbourne on the East Coast.

On this track the center will cross the coast of Southwest Florida around 8 a.m. Tuesday morning and continue inland over central Florida later on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Edited August 19, 2008 by Coast

[Iceberg]

The eye is now clearly visible and should make landfall very very soon between everglades city and naples.

[Coast]

Interesting comparison of charts and animations on Fox Weather.

[johnholmes]

yes it is, large differences in the models on what the pressure pattern may end up, even over the Atlantic, let alone Fay. Most seem to suggest Fay is likely to end up moving west not east once it starts to downgrade, unless my eyes are playing tricks with me!

[kold weather]

Its really tricky John. All models agree now that eventually a high to the north will block this systems path and send it somewhat to the west but the key is when this happens. The GFDL has it happen so late that it ends up hitting Georgia, whilst the 'big three' models have it just about reaching the east coast then shuting sharp west back into the gulf, which would be a pretty rare path I have to admit!

Fay has made landfall, eye presentation has been greatly enhanced probably land friction and pressure has dropped quickly in response to the eye, Fay probably is strong than 50kts, I'd personally have gone for at least 55kts.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 19 Aug, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for TS is 90% currently

Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)

probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)

probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for TS is 75% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Coast]

Please don't kite surf when a tropical storm is on its way...... CLICKY

[Iceberg]

She's got the best representation I've seen from her at the moment as she crosses Florida.

Path is still NNE, (much more northely than earlier and more in line with the NHC path. A big plus for them if they get this right, currently Fay is looking like she will be over Florida for awhile.

[opplevelse]

Some nice fast clouds on the Key West webcam - http://webcam.keywestcam.net/

...

Gee it looks like quite a nice day down there, with a little breeze! Look the palms didnt even lose their leaves!

This is really quite a poor excuse for a storm and other than the rain I am not quite sure why everyone is getting so excited about it, it shouldnt really pose much danger to a cyclone prepared region like Florida.

Edit: Clarification ...

they shouldnt be concerned about it yet. If she makes it into the atlantic and re-strengthens then there is some room for concern ... but right now, nup shes a baby.

Edited August 19, 2008 by opplevelse

[johnholmes]

989mb at 12z

[Coast]

'Landfall at Cape Romano, hurricane warnings dropped for Southern and South Western Florida, biggest concern flooding and Tornados':

Edited August 19, 2008 by Coast

[johnholmes]

I am still not convinced that Fay may not still move up the eastern side of the States; to me there appears to be a window between the two surface and 500mb ridges and her upper cloud(see sat piccs) is already streaming into the low off the eastern seaboard.

I may well be wrong but it will be interesting to see if she does turn nw overland, once having cleared the east coast of Florida.

Those with much more experience of hurricane watching will be able to explain why I am wrong I'm sure.

Edited August 19, 2008 by johnholmes

[Mondy]

An eye?

Be interesting to see if Lake Okeechobee will interact with it!

Surfs up: http://www.twopalms.com/

Edited August 19, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[Mondy]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

[opplevelse]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

quite a nice animation and yes i think you may be right, there looks like a week very small eye.