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Tropical Storm Fay


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

The eyewall is still open, its not a Hurricane yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

What the hell is Fay doing?! It's strengthening OVER LAND!! 55kts is the current intensity but an eye is becoming increasingly well defined. Fay may be very near hurricane status and if it does emerge off the east coast of Florida then I think it's very likely it will become one. Jeff Masters on Wunderground offers a possible reason; Fay may be drawing moisture from flood waters or Lake Okeechobee. However, what Fay is doing is really out of the ordinary!

post-1820-1219180063_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS

STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS

CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR

AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS

KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE

CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER

THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION

IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS...AND IS

REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

Above taken from latest 21Z update.

It's incredible that she has managed to keep her shape and that the land interaction has tightened the eye so much.

She has been upped in strength as well to 55Kt.

The path is still not set. With GFDL for example making her a 100Kt hard hit back on the Florida east coast.

HWRF less so at 75Kt.

ECM and GFS both still keen on introducing her back into the GOM with rapid strengthening upto a major Hurricane.

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Posted
  • Location: cotswolds
  • Location: cotswolds

i'm no expert but the fact that fay hay has strenghtened over land is unknown territory for me. i always thought the warm sea was the fuel for hurricanes. i guess a favourable upper atmosphere is the most likely reason for any development. any info on this gratefully received. ls

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

444 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE EYEWALL FEATURE OF

TROPICAL STORM FAY ACROSS WESTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...

AT 445 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE

CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY ALONG THE KISSIMME RIVER IN

WESTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY NEAR BASINGER. STRONG TROPICAL STORM

FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WERE ASSOCIATED

WITH THIS FEATURE.

RESIDENTS IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY ESPECIALLY FROM BASINGER TO FORT DRUM

AND THE OSCEOLA COUNTY LINE SHOULD PREPARE FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY

DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN 55 AND 65 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. THE BAND OF

STRONG WINDS WITH THE EYEWALL WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN OSCEOLA

COUNTY AFTER 6 PM.

STAY INDOORS...AWAY FROM WINDOWS WHILE THIS BAND OF STRONG

WINDS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING CONTINUE FOR OKEECHOBEE AND

OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

i'm no expert but the fact that fay hay has strenghtened over land is unknown territory for me. i always thought the warm sea was the fuel for hurricanes. i guess a favourable upper atmosphere is the most likely reason for any development. any info on this gratefully received. ls

I reckon Lake Okeechobee water mass did assist her; mentioned this a few posts back. It's a vast area of water, warm enough to keep Fay going.

Hurricane Fay soon..

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

That said... Fay did form over land to begin with (well, officially classified at least) Maybe the outerbands are still interacting with the sea.

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Posted
  • Location: Polesworth, North Warwickshire 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW!
  • Location: Polesworth, North Warwickshire 104m asl

It's fascinating how Fay strengthened so much over land when water didn't seem to fuel her much before hitting Florida. I can't even begin to imagine 15 inches of rain falling when we think how much damage 2 inches did to parts of Herefordshire/Glos just last year, especially when it's a state that's been so dry lately - how do they cope with such extremes.

The estimated track is so strange with the expected reverse back to the GoM - Florida will be drowning.

Fay's been brilliant to watch but despite her being a relatively weak hurricane, she's making up for it now and must be wreaking havoc with this slowdown - there's tornado warnings popping up all over the place, I'd imagine lots of people have suffered.

Jo

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

Could some give me a link to the page with the GFDL and HWRF models on please? I'm on a different comp and dont have it saved to me favourites.

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Posted
  • Location: Polesworth, North Warwickshire 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW!
  • Location: Polesworth, North Warwickshire 104m asl

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Someone on here kindly posted this link some time last year and I bookmarked it but I can't remember who it was - thank you to who it was anyway!

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Posted
  • Location: Polesworth, North Warwickshire 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW!
  • Location: Polesworth, North Warwickshire 104m asl

Bitte Schon :D

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The fact its strengthened overland shows there is something else at play here, in a system moving NNE there is a upper trough clearly involved, I think this has been helped greatly by being close to a jet max coming in with the upper trough and that may well be really helping to keep this system going and strengthening, but very rarely does that sort of interaction help to make this much of a difference.

IF it was over water right now, explosive deepening would be occuring, the pattern is like Charley...but over land instead!

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

new update

Storm Alert issued at 19 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Bahamas

probability for TS is 80% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Well she's back now over the sea, quite alot of deteriation over night, but lets see how quickly she picks up again.

Also what on earth she'll do I fully admit I don't know.

As to why she intensified over land ? KW might well be right but it's a total mystery to me, it might be due to lake OKEECHOBEE etc but something else must have been at work.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

It may just be her 'erratic' nature but the last few frames of the latest sat. image seem to have Fay swinging back inland???

If the remnants took the short path across Florida and out into the Gulf (due to the ridging to the north) then we would have the worrying prospect of it strafing the Gulf coast and intensifying as she travels west.

I don't know how the Levees are doing in N.O. but they may get a good test if a cat. 3 trawled up the coast driving a couple of metres surge ahead of it.

EDIT: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

seems GFS got there before me!!!

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Latest NHC update:

517

WTNT21 KNHC 200240

TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008

0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF

FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND FOR LAKE

OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF

FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO

THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 80.7W AT 20/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 80.7W AT 20/0300Z

AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 80.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.4N 80.3W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.2W

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.5N 80.8W

MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

Interesting Fox video update on the possibility of it upgrading to a hurricane and moving West here (note the presenter making good use of GFS and giving full info to the public with good graphical representations)

Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

new update

Storm Alert issued at 20 Aug, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)

probability for TS is 65% currently

Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

The NHC update at 0900 UTC shows the track now Northerly rather than its previous North Easterly:

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 80.6W AT 20/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT

That's heading straight for Cape Canaveral

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Posted
  • Location: North West Londonish
  • Location: North West Londonish

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but does it have a tail and if so what does that mean for us? Just looking at satelite images and it looks like a tail end.

Geri :huh:

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK

Yes, its at times like this that indeed NASA would wish they were able to 'raise the shields' on their VAB and 2 main launch pads.

--

Fay is certainly a particularly interesting storm, and a great example that not all storms go the same old boring route. Its been a while since we've seen something like this, and its fascinating to see how the models and NHC are trying to forecast it.

-

On the water vapour loop, looks like Fay is just about as far east as she is going to get. Most of the tracks seem to be shifting the core ever further south, and it does look likely that if Fay exits Florida, it'll be back over water and then heading due west.

A VERY interesting weekend is ahead of us.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Fay is certainly a particularly interesting storm, and a great example that not all storms go the same old boring route. Its been a while since we've seen something like this, and its fascinating to see how the models and NHC are trying to forecast it.

Latest 'Spaghetti models' seem to be in agreement of a Westerly/North Westerly track back over land:

hurricane_track_models_1.jpg

NHC track being right in the middle of the Southerly ones:

trackmap.jpg

A theory being floated on this

is that Fay gained strength from the flat, swampy Everglades.
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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK

LIVE streaming from a roaming pickup truck tv news crew in Florida...

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

--

There is a lot of flooded homes and roads. Sure, the winds were strong, but damage could be quite significant for a fair few.

Calrissian: rained out.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Contrary to the NHC, Fay is moving SSE.

Where is that from Calrissian? The live link you gave to the Florida Today TV guys has them still talking of a Northerly track of 3mph from Cape Canaveral.

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK
Where is that from Calrissian? The live link you gave to the Florida Today TV guys has them still talking of a Northerly track of 3mph from Cape Canaveral.

Well, they are just listening to the NHC guidance.

IF you look at the Water-vap' loop, that shows distinct southerly movement of the overall storm. The lowest pressure may indeed be still a little more NE/N, but the overall storm is a little south of what it was earlier. Of course, at a speed of 3mph or less, its kinda hard to say.

Dare I say, anyone in the Carolinas or Georgia can rest easy now.

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