Polish Twister

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.estofex.org/

Incredible Set-Up for a lot of Europe tomorrow, 2nd Level 3 of the year, looks like there could be some Strong Tornadoes tomorrow and If i could get on a plane it would be bound for Poland in the Morning, here I believe that some Moderate to Strong Tornadoes are possible along a lifting Warm Front from a Set-Up that would not look out of place in the Plains during May Tornado Season. Italy and Croatia look like getting some Nado's and Spouts as well.

One to watch tomorrow!

Paul S

[Cookie]

how often dose Europe get a level 3 in a year?

[Paul Sherman]

None last year

Tomorrow and July 17th 2008 so far this year.

The level 3 on the 17th July produced a fair number of Tornadoes.

Paul S

[SnowBear]

* * * A major severe-weather outbreak is forecast for parts of the central Mediterranean, the northwestern Balkans and parts of central Europe. Severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and significant hail can be expected. * * *

http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showfor...ormforecast.xml

I think that's the longest forecast I have seen on Estofex too!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Gee the mother in law has just come back from Croatia from seeing her sister (it's her native country or at least Yugoslavia was) they have been in the north to Rovijn on the coast. Looks like she came back to early. Better send her back over and jump in her suitcase with her!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Has the UK ever been under a level 3 alert?

I would be very suprised if we ever had, but I imagine that we may have been under a level 2 in the past.

[Harry]

I would be very suprised if we ever had, but I imagine that we may have been under a level 2 in the past.

Weren't we here in the SE under a Level 2 only a month or two ago?

[Harry]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html

Massive thunderstorms already well underway across what seems to be E Germany and into Poland (cant tell the borders from that image)

My mate has very good friends who are Polish, however I cannot remember where they live in Poland, somewhere near Krakau I think...how they are safe! :unsure:

Edited August 15, 2008 by Harry

[geri2k]

Link for webcam. (North-east market pierzeję opolskiego) Opole in southern Poland

http://www.um.opole.pl/kamera/

Geri

[Nick F]

Satellite loop of Poland shows two large storm areas, MCS with possible supercells embedded:

http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=view&country=pl

Poprad-Ganovce 12z ascent in Nern Slovakia probably representative of the unstable airmass over SE/E Poland along and within warm front where storms are developing - notice on the wind barbs the marked backing of winds to the SE and E towards the surface compared to the strong SW upper flow - this reperesents very strong vertical shear in the profile, with definate potential for strong mesocyclones with tornadoes:

[Paranoid]

Just read something on ESSL about there being a tornado in Poland, wasn't much information but they quoted a TV report saying "Very serious damage"

[Nick F]

Forecast update from Estofex:

Forecast Update

Valid: Fri 15 Aug 2008 18:00 to Sat 16 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC

Issued: Fri 15 Aug 2008 18:09

Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

+ + + TORNADO OUTBREAK CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL POLAND AND POSSIBLY SLOVAKIA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING + + +

DISCUSSION

S and E Poland... Slovakia

A line of supercells with reported tornadoes are ongoing across a line from just west of Warsaw to Krakow to Bratislava. These are expected to continue during the evening while moving eastward. As a southerly nocturnal low-level jet sets in across the Pannonian Plain and the Carpates, and the pressure gradient increases due to pressure falls east of the Alps, low-level shear profiles are expected to improve further. A continued threat of supercells producing (strong) tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds is forecast. Storms may weaken no sooner than well after midnight.

E Austria... W and C Hungary

Strong storm-relative helicity of around 400 m2/s2 is expected to develop across extreme eastern Austria and the western half Hungary during the evening in reponse to pressure falls over Hungary. Storm that develop in this environment would have a high probability of producing tornadoes, also given the moist boundary layer that is present, with expceptionally high dew points of 23 C observed. The most important question is whether and if yes, how many storms will develop. Currently, we anticipate that isolated to scattered storms will develop, possibly clustering into a small MCS. An attendant threat of tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging gusts is forecast. Only after midnight should the boundary layer cool sufficiently to mitigate the severe threat.

Lithuania, N Belarus, Latvia

Given very strong low-level and deep-layer shear that should develop during the evening, clustering convective storms across Poland may develop into a bow echo. This system will likely move northeastward across the warm front and affect the southern Baltic States and N Belarus overnight, producing damaging wind gusts. Some threat of tornadoes will also exist with these storms and some large hail may occur as well.

Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovnia, N Serbia

A few supercells will likely affect the area during the evening and into the night.Rather high LCL heights limit the threat of tornadoes, but large, possibly very large hail and damaging winds appear possible. That said, strong low-level shear and lowering LCL heights during the evening may suffice to produce conditions allowing for tornado development. Per GFS, the threat of convective storms should continue overnight.

# # #

[ItIsGee]

anywhere with streaming webcams etc?

loks interesting

[Gorky]

Hmm I wish I'd checked this out sooner... I actually had these last 2 days off and I'm sure I could have made the flight over if I really felt like it. Not sure how I'd get data over there though.. Would have been difficult at such short notice

[Paul Sherman]

Unfortunately quite a few deaths being reported from Poland from these Tornadoes, at least one EF4 Which has caused massive destruction

Looks to be a possible Level 3 for Tomorrow as well, so Nathan it is not to late to get out there for a Euro Chase - Good Luck if you attempt it with no data

Wedge Tornado footage from the Video below

http://www.onet.tv/28962,4451,1,3816879,1,1,0,0,wideo.html

Paul S

[Cookie]

thanks for the link paul shame about the deaths

[rc28]

http://forum.lowcyburz.pl/viewtopic.php?f=...=17242%20p17242

Photos show some pretty serious damage.

[Gorky]

Wow. That was a huge wedge. Not something you see every day this side of the Atlantic... Shame I missed out on this opportunity. I usually check Estofex regularly as well as the wetterzentrale charts on NW charts so I'd have seen this coming if only I'd looked.. I can't imagine it would be that expensive to chase in Europe with budget flights either...

[I can't believe it's not better]

http://forum.lowcyburz.pl/viewtopic.php?f=...=17242%20p17242

Photos show some pretty serious damage.

Bloody hell, those trees are stripped bare!!

[UkStormChaser]

Unfortunately quite a few deaths being reported from Poland from these Tornadoes, at least one EF4 Which has caused massive destruction

Looks to be a possible Level 3 for Tomorrow as well, so Nathan it is not to late to get out there for a Euro Chase - Good Luck if you attempt it with no data

Wedge Tornado footage from the Video below

http://www.onet.tv/28962,4451,1,3816879,1,1,0,0,wideo.html

Paul S

HOLLY MOTHER OF ZEUS!! That tornado was MAHOOOSIVE! I reckon easily 1/2 - 3/4 mile wide wedge. To be that visible from that far away its had to have been. Poor people. Ive never heard of a tornado of that size in another country other that USA.

[PersianPaladin]

HOLLY MOTHER OF ZEUS!! That tornado was MAHOOOSIVE! I reckon easily 1/2 - 3/4 mile wide wedge. To be that visible from that far away its had to have been. Poor people. Ive never heard of a tornado of that size in another country other that USA.

Seconded.

It can happen in central Europe though; with more persistent continental pressure-patterns present than further west and a good feed of subtropical air ahead of a very-active upper trough, etc.

Amazing pictures; I feel really bad for those who have lost homes though. Must've been terrifying.

Edited August 16, 2008 by PersianPaladin

[Marcus_surfer]

Thats some serious damage there!

[Nick F]

Stunning footage of that wedge tornado and the resultant damage, the landscape in that vid even looks like the mid-west!

You tube clip of a tornado in Poland yesterday: http://pl.youtube.com/watch?v=-PaTsoDWDkI

Very little coverage on the news websites unfortunately.

ESSL reports of two tornadoes over Sern Poland:

tornado 

n.Mykanów near highway nr.1, slaskie 
Poland (50.9333 N, 19.2000 E)
15 08 2008 (Friday)   15:30 UTC (+/- 1 hrs.)

 based on: information from a report on a website, photo or video of the event
land use: land
land use where event was first observed: land
The funnel cloud was observed.
It is possible, that this tornado blew over a bus on highway. Around 10 people were injured. Video of the tornado: http://pl.youtube.com/watch?v=-PaTsoDWDkI
This report has not been verified.
contact: Artur Surowiecki (Polscy Lowcy Burz) [e-mail]

tornado 

Balcarzowice, Sieroniowice, Blotnica Strzelecka Opolskie 
Poland (50.4667 N, 18.3667 E)
15 08 2008 (Friday)   15:00 UTC (+/- 15 min.)

 based on: information from a report on a website, a television or radio broadcast, an eye-witness report, photo or video of the event
land use: land
land use where event was first observed: land
accompanying weather: heavy rain, hail >= 0.5 cm but < 2.0 in diameter.
The funnel cloud was observed.
maximum path width: 800 m
number of people injured: 15
number of people dead: 2
Large funnel cloud was observed on the ground. Very serious damages. Source: TVN24 - news. Discussion on POLSCY LOWCY BURZ FORUM: http://forum.lowcyburz.pl/viewtopic.php?f=169&t=1366&p=17242 p17242; further source: http://www.nto.pl/apps/pbcs.dll/tngallery?Site=NO&Date=20080815&Category=GALERIA&ArtNo=797 122456&Ref=PH
This report has been partially verified.
contact: Artur Surowiecki (Polscy Lowcy Burz); (report expanded: T.Kühne (ESSL)) [e-mail]

[opplevelse]

http://forum.lowcyburz.pl/viewtopic.php?f=...=17242%20p17242

Photos show some pretty serious damage.

WOW amazing photos!

[opplevelse]

Reports of 3 dead and 34 injured

http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/apdetai...b3b083a197f3297

Quite an amazing lack of media coverage about this.

ESTOFEX has level 2's throughout the Baltics today, and there are a few cells starting to form now.