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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    http://www.estofex.org/

    Incredible Set-Up for a lot of Europe tomorrow, 2nd Level 3 of the year, looks like there could be some Strong Tornadoes tomorrow and If i could get on a plane it would be bound for Poland in the Morning, here I believe that some Moderate to Strong Tornadoes are possible along a lifting Warm Front from a Set-Up that would not look out of place in the Plains during May Tornado Season. Italy and Croatia look like getting some Nado's and Spouts as well.

    One to watch tomorrow!

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    None last year

    Tomorrow and July 17th 2008 so far this year.

    The level 3 on the 17th July produced a fair number of Tornadoes.

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
    * * * A major severe-weather outbreak is forecast for parts of the central Mediterranean, the northwestern Balkans and parts of central Europe. Severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and significant hail can be expected. * * *

    http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showfor...ormforecast.xml

    I think that's the longest forecast I have seen on Estofex too!

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!

    Gee the mother in law has just come back from Croatia from seeing her sister (it's her native country or at least Yugoslavia was) they have been in the north to Rovijn on the coast. Looks like she came back to early. Better send her back over and jump in her suitcase with her!

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    Has the UK ever been under a level 3 alert?

    I would be very suprised if we ever had, but I imagine that we may have been under a level 2 in the past.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    I would be very suprised if we ever had, but I imagine that we may have been under a level 2 in the past.

    Weren't we here in the SE under a Level 2 only a month or two ago?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html

    Massive thunderstorms already well underway across what seems to be E Germany and into Poland (cant tell the borders from that image)

    My mate has very good friends who are Polish, however I cannot remember where they live in Poland, somewhere near Krakau I think...how they are safe! :unsure:

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Satellite loop of Poland shows two large storm areas, MCS with possible supercells embedded:

    http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=view&country=pl

    post-1052-1218819450_thumb.jpg

    Poprad-Ganovce 12z ascent in Nern Slovakia probably representative of the unstable airmass over SE/E Poland along and within warm front where storms are developing - notice on the wind barbs the marked backing of winds to the SE and E towards the surface compared to the strong SW upper flow - this reperesents very strong vertical shear in the profile, with definate potential for strong mesocyclones with tornadoes:

    post-1052-1218819344_thumb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

    Just read something on ESSL about there being a tornado in Poland, wasn't much information but they quoted a TV report saying "Very serious damage"

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Forecast update from Estofex:

    Forecast Update

    Valid: Fri 15 Aug 2008 18:00 to Sat 16 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC

    Issued: Fri 15 Aug 2008 18:09

    Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

    + + + TORNADO OUTBREAK CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL POLAND AND POSSIBLY SLOVAKIA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING + + +

    DISCUSSION

    S and E Poland... Slovakia

    A line of supercells with reported tornadoes are ongoing across a line from just west of Warsaw to Krakow to Bratislava. These are expected to continue during the evening while moving eastward. As a southerly nocturnal low-level jet sets in across the Pannonian Plain and the Carpates, and the pressure gradient increases due to pressure falls east of the Alps, low-level shear profiles are expected to improve further. A continued threat of supercells producing (strong) tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds is forecast. Storms may weaken no sooner than well after midnight.

    E Austria... W and C Hungary

    Strong storm-relative helicity of around 400 m2/s2 is expected to develop across extreme eastern Austria and the western half Hungary during the evening in reponse to pressure falls over Hungary. Storm that develop in this environment would have a high probability of producing tornadoes, also given the moist boundary layer that is present, with expceptionally high dew points of 23 C observed. The most important question is whether and if yes, how many storms will develop. Currently, we anticipate that isolated to scattered storms will develop, possibly clustering into a small MCS. An attendant threat of tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging gusts is forecast. Only after midnight should the boundary layer cool sufficiently to mitigate the severe threat.

    Lithuania, N Belarus, Latvia

    Given very strong low-level and deep-layer shear that should develop during the evening, clustering convective storms across Poland may develop into a bow echo. This system will likely move northeastward across the warm front and affect the southern Baltic States and N Belarus overnight, producing damaging wind gusts. Some threat of tornadoes will also exist with these storms and some large hail may occur as well.

    Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovnia, N Serbia

    A few supercells will likely affect the area during the evening and into the night.Rather high LCL heights limit the threat of tornadoes, but large, possibly very large hail and damaging winds appear possible. That said, strong low-level shear and lowering LCL heights during the evening may suffice to produce conditions allowing for tornado development. Per GFS, the threat of convective storms should continue overnight.

    # # #

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    Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale

    anywhere with streaming webcams etc?

    loks interesting

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    Hmm I wish I'd checked this out sooner... I actually had these last 2 days off and I'm sure I could have made the flight over if I really felt like it. Not sure how I'd get data over there though.. Would have been difficult at such short notice :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Unfortunately quite a few deaths being reported from Poland from these Tornadoes, at least one EF4 Which has caused massive destruction

    Looks to be a possible Level 3 for Tomorrow as well, so Nathan it is not to late to get out there for a Euro Chase - Good Luck if you attempt it with no data

    Wedge Tornado footage from the Video below

    http://www.onet.tv/28962,4451,1,3816879,1,1,0,0,wideo.html

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    Wow. That was a huge wedge. Not something you see every day this side of the Atlantic... Shame I missed out on this opportunity. I usually check Estofex regularly as well as the wetterzentrale charts on NW charts so I'd have seen this coming if only I'd looked.. I can't imagine it would be that expensive to chase in Europe with budget flights either...

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    Posted
  • Location: Norman, Oklahoma USA
  • Location: Norman, Oklahoma USA
    Unfortunately quite a few deaths being reported from Poland from these Tornadoes, at least one EF4 Which has caused massive destruction

    Looks to be a possible Level 3 for Tomorrow as well, so Nathan it is not to late to get out there for a Euro Chase - Good Luck if you attempt it with no data

    Wedge Tornado footage from the Video below

    http://www.onet.tv/28962,4451,1,3816879,1,1,0,0,wideo.html

    Paul S

    HOLLY MOTHER OF ZEUS!! That tornado was MAHOOOSIVE! I reckon easily 1/2 - 3/4 mile wide wedge. To be that visible from that far away its had to have been. Poor people. Ive never heard of a tornado of that size in another country other that USA.

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
    HOLLY MOTHER OF ZEUS!! That tornado was MAHOOOSIVE! I reckon easily 1/2 - 3/4 mile wide wedge. To be that visible from that far away its had to have been. Poor people. Ive never heard of a tornado of that size in another country other that USA.

    Seconded.

    It can happen in central Europe though; with more persistent continental pressure-patterns present than further west and a good feed of subtropical air ahead of a very-active upper trough, etc.

    Amazing pictures; I feel really bad for those who have lost homes though. Must've been terrifying.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

    Thats some serious damage there!

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Stunning footage of that wedge tornado and the resultant damage, the landscape in that vid even looks like the mid-west!

    You tube clip of a tornado in Poland yesterday: http://pl.youtube.com/watch?v=-PaTsoDWDkI

    Very little coverage on the news websites unfortunately.

    ESSL reports of two tornadoes over Sern Poland:

    tornado 

    n.Mykanów near highway nr.1, slaskie
    Poland (50.9333 N, 19.2000 E)
    15 08 2008 (Friday) 15:30 UTC (+/- 1 hrs.)

    based on: information from a report on a website, photo or video of the event
    land use: land
    land use where event was first observed: land
    The funnel cloud was observed.
    It is possible, that this tornado blew over a bus on highway. Around 10 people were injured. Video of the tornado: http://pl.youtube.com/watch?v=-PaTsoDWDkI
    This report has not been verified.
    contact: Artur Surowiecki (Polscy Lowcy Burz) [e-mail]

    tornado

    Balcarzowice, Sieroniowice, Blotnica Strzelecka Opolskie
    Poland (50.4667 N, 18.3667 E)
    15 08 2008 (Friday) 15:00 UTC (+/- 15 min.)

    based on: information from a report on a website, a television or radio broadcast, an eye-witness report, photo or video of the event
    land use: land
    land use where event was first observed: land
    accompanying weather: heavy rain, hail >= 0.5 cm but < 2.0 in diameter.
    The funnel cloud was observed.
    maximum path width: 800 m
    number of people injured: 15
    number of people dead: 2
    Large funnel cloud was observed on the ground. Very serious damages. Source: TVN24 - news. Discussion on POLSCY LOWCY BURZ FORUM: http://forum.lowcyburz.pl/viewtopic.php?f=169&t=1366&p=17242 p17242; further source: http://www.nto.pl/apps/pbcs.dll/tngallery?Site=NO&Date=20080815&Category=GALERIA&ArtNo=797 122456&Ref=PH
    This report has been partially verified.
    contact: Artur Surowiecki (Polscy Lowcy Burz); (report expanded: T.Kühne (ESSL)) [e-mail]

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    Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

    Reports of 3 dead and 34 injured :(

    http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/apdetai...b3b083a197f3297

    Quite an amazing lack of media coverage about this.

    ESTOFEX has level 2's throughout the Baltics today, and there are a few cells starting to form now.

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