Typhoon Nuri

[opplevelse]

... and is heading for Taiwan, keep an eye on this, she may become the first Cat4 for the year.

[opplevelse]

No particullarly good / defined banding yet, but her structure at this stage looks nice, symetrical and with very low shear, there should be a good environment for development. The SST's are nothing stunning with the Anom about zero, but they are still warm in that part of the world.

[Somerset Squall]

The ingredients are there for a pretty hefty typhoon next week. JTWC indicate rapid strengthening to occur around 72hrs time as sea temps become hot and outflow is expected to be excellent. TD13W isn't far off tropical storm strength by the looks of things and as it heads northwestwards towards Taiwan and the Phillipines it is really expected to flourish. COuld be some trouble next week if this were to occur.

[Cookie]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp200813.html

Storm Alert issued at 17 Aug, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression 13W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

... and is heading for Taiwan, keep an eye on this, she may become the first Cat4 for the year.

We've already had two cat 4's, Super Typhoon Rammasun and Super Typhoon Nakri. This is going to be an interesting watch, we've had a few weak storms lately in the West Pacific and it'll be nice to monitor a strong one again. Where it is heading though, is rather concerning.

[opplevelse]

We've already had two cat 4's, Super Typhoon Rammasun and Super Typhoon Nakri. This is going to be an interesting watch, we've had a few weak storms lately in the West Pacific and it'll be nice to monitor a strong one again. Where it is heading though, is rather concerning.

Sorry, you are quite correct, those were so long ago i completely forgot about them (it is an old age thing )

Nevertheless, if 13W does achieve Cat 4 she will be the biggest storm all year to cme within shouting distance of heavily populated areas. Rammasun was heading to the Philipines but fortunately fizzled.

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC have upgraded 13W to a 35kt tropical storm as the system continues to look more organised on satellite imagery. TS13W is continuing west-northwestwards, under the steering influence of a subtropical ridge to the north. JTWC still indicate rapid intensification in a couple days time as outflow and sea temps are expected to be favourable. A recurve scenario east of Taiwan is forecast due to 13W approaching a weakeness in the ridge in a few days time but the storm is likely to get close enough to bring very stormy conditions to the island (this is dependant on just how strong 13W gets). 13W still needs closely watching as it will approach land even if it doesn't make a direct landfall.

[opplevelse]

JTWC have upgraded 13W to a 35kt tropical storm as the system continues to look more organised on satellite imagery. TS13W is continuing west-northwestwards, under the steering influence of a subtropical ridge to the north. JTWC still indicate rapid intensification in a couple days time as outflow and sea temps are expected to be favourable. A recurve scenario east of Taiwan is forecast due to 13W approaching a weakeness in the ridge in a few days time but the storm is likely to get close enough to bring very stormy conditions to the island (this is dependant on just how strong 13W gets). 13W still needs closely watching as it will approach land even if it doesn't make a direct landfall.

SS do you know a nice high res IR or Vis sat animation of the region? All I could find was this

http://www.nea.gov.sg/cms/mss/aseangif/satanimate.html and she is a little off to the right (and it is low res)

[Somerset Squall]

SS do you know a nice high res IR or Vis sat animation of the region? All I could find was this

http://www.nea.gov.sg/cms/mss/aseangif/satanimate.html and she is a little off to the right (and it is low res)

I use this one:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...sirbbmjava.html

And IR:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...sirnhcjava.html

Link to site home page:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

[opplevelse]

I use this one:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...sirbbmjava.html

And IR:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...sirnhcjava.html

Link to site home page:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

Excellent! Thank you!

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 17 Aug, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm 13W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Quite low percentages there in your alert Cookie, could mean future track may be uncertain or direct landfall isn't likely which is interesting. But as I said before, if 13W gets as strong as predicted then focussing on a direct landfall wouldn't be the most wise thing to do because the storm is likely to get close enough to land to do damage. Thanks for that alert Cookie, they are really helpful.

13W has strengthened to 40kts and has good banding features amd persistant, deep convection over the well defined centre. JMA are more reluctant to upgrade the system to a tropical storm (they estimate the current intensity to be 30kts but I think that is too low) but the system certainly looks better all the time.

[Cookie]

one thing I have noticed with these alerts are the further out the low the percentage

[opplevelse]

Starting to show some good banding and convection, but still no really well defined central convection

[opplevelse]

I THINK it has been named TS Nuri, but I cant confirm that yet.

[opplevelse]

Yep she is TS Nuri

A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP DISPLAYING

MARKEDLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

(LLCC) AND UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY REVEALED IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE

WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK

WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-

LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC

MODEL AIDS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK FORE-

CAST, HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE STILL EXISTS IN THE MODEL

INTENSITY FORECAST WITH NOGAPS REMAINING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF ALL

DYNAMIC AIDS.

The JTWC goes on to say that over the next 48 hrs she will intensify, but only slowly as she tracks rapidly westward. After this she is expected to slow, rapidly intensify and recurve East of Taiwan.

The models disagree about intensity but at gusts 105knts thats puts her as still a strong Cat 3, and if previous forecasts are to be believed, she may even make Cat 5 (Previous forecast was gusts to 135knots) ... makes Fay look like an infant just out of the womb, but Fay is hitting America, so of course it is more important ...

[opplevelse]

She's looking lovely on the vis sat image with strong banding and strong central convection visible in the 85Ghz images (although still not organised into an eye)

[opplevelse]

Just had a nice sat pass (89%) with the SSMI sensor. very good and deep convection at the core, nice symetrical CDO and good equatorward outflow on the animated sat. She looks better with every pass!

[opplevelse]

The Phillipines MO have a slightly different track to the JTWC track (and they also call her Karen) ... Ive been trying to find the Phillippine radar's but I cant locate them anywhere? Has anyone got any idea where they are?

[Somerset Squall]

Yep she is TS Nuri

she may even make Cat 5 (Previous forecast was gusts to 135knots) ...

Winds need to reach 135kts sustained before it becomes a cat 5. This is possible I guess judging on how favourable the environment is expected to be.

Nuri is now a 65kt typhoon, so it has been strengthening pretty quickly already. Outflow is good in all directions bar poleward, but even this is expected to improve which should cause further quick intensification. The subtropical steering ridge has also got stronger to the north which has meant a significant westwards shift in the track. This puts the Philippines in more danger than before but Taiwan is still likely to receive a fair whack from Nuri. A recurve scenario is now less likely to the east of Taiwan, which greatly increases the risk of direct landfall, though it's too early to pinpoint where just now. Ingredients are there for a big typhoon though later this week.

[opplevelse]

Winds need to reach 135kts sustained before it becomes a cat 5. This is possible I guess judging on how favourable the environment is expected to be.

...

On the saffir scale yes, but on the Australian and Fiji scales, (which I am more used to) it is sustained at 200kph. Most of the Western Pacific uses this scale, and the Saffir scale is primarily used in Atlantic, GoM and East Pacific (close to the US). To be pedantic, I think this should actually be classified as Typhoon or a Super typhoon (which is similar in intensity to a Saffir Cat 5.) ... but that is all pedantry, as a universal scale I guess we should apply the Saffir-Simpson scale so I guess your comment is fair enough ... Either way she will be a strong storm with predicted 110knt sustained and 135knot gusts at landfall.

As you mentioned the track has changed significantly, and HK is again an outside chance. The Northern tip of the Phillippines is going to be in for a rough ride. I still havent found any radars in the region. Do you know of any?

[Somerset Squall]

On the saffir scale yes, but on the Australian and Fiji scales, (which I am more used to) it is sustained at 200kph. Most of the Western Pacific uses this scale, and the Saffir scale is primarily used in Atlantic, GoM and East Pacific (close to the US). To be pedantic, I think this should actually be classified as Typhoon or a Super typhoon (which is similar in intensity to a Saffir Cat 5.) ... but that is all pedantry, as a universal scale I guess we should apply the Saffir-Simpson scale so I guess your comment is fair enough ... Either way she will be a strong storm with predicted 110knt sustained and 135knot gusts at landfall.

Ah right, I understand you now, I'm the other way around, not used to the Australian scale . Sorry, I don't know of any radars in the region, anybody else??

[Cookie]

new update and % have shot up

Storm Alert issued at 18 Aug, 2008 18:00 GMT

Typhoon NURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[opplevelse]

There has been quite appalling satellite coverage of Nuri, and no decent passes recently.

Nuri has been downgraded slightly to 105knots, but will still likely clip Northern Philippines before moving on to China. Still poor poleward outflow, but that should change after she passes the Philippines where she will rapidly intensify before hitting China ...

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 19 Aug, 2008 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.