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Typhoon Nuri


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Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

    ... and is heading for Taiwan, keep an eye on this, she may become the first Cat4 for the year.

    wp132008.08081700.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

    No particullarly good / defined banding yet, but her structure at this stage looks nice, symetrical and with very low shear, there should be a good environment for development. The SST's are nothing stunning with the Anom about zero, but they are still warm in that part of the world.

    20080817_0921_f13_x_composite_13WNONAME_30kts-1000mb-157N-1389E_60pc.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    The ingredients are there for a pretty hefty typhoon next week. JTWC indicate rapid strengthening to occur around 72hrs time as sea temps become hot and outflow is expected to be excellent. TD13W isn't far off tropical storm strength by the looks of things and as it heads northwestwards towards Taiwan and the Phillipines it is really expected to flourish. COuld be some trouble next week if this were to occur.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    wp200813.gif

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp200813.html

    Storm Alert issued at 17 Aug, 2008 6:00 GMT

    Tropical Depression 13W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Taiwan

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

    probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

    probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

    probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

    probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

    Note that

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    ... and is heading for Taiwan, keep an eye on this, she may become the first Cat4 for the year.

    We've already had two cat 4's, Super Typhoon Rammasun and Super Typhoon Nakri. This is going to be an interesting watch, we've had a few weak storms lately in the West Pacific and it'll be nice to monitor a strong one again. Where it is heading though, is rather concerning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
    We've already had two cat 4's, Super Typhoon Rammasun and Super Typhoon Nakri. This is going to be an interesting watch, we've had a few weak storms lately in the West Pacific and it'll be nice to monitor a strong one again. Where it is heading though, is rather concerning.

    Sorry, you are quite correct, those were so long ago i completely forgot about them (it is an old age thing :) )

    Nevertheless, if 13W does achieve Cat 4 she will be the biggest storm all year to cme within shouting distance of heavily populated areas. Rammasun was heading to the Philipines but fortunately fizzled.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    JTWC have upgraded 13W to a 35kt tropical storm as the system continues to look more organised on satellite imagery. TS13W is continuing west-northwestwards, under the steering influence of a subtropical ridge to the north. JTWC still indicate rapid intensification in a couple days time as outflow and sea temps are expected to be favourable. A recurve scenario east of Taiwan is forecast due to 13W approaching a weakeness in the ridge in a few days time but the storm is likely to get close enough to bring very stormy conditions to the island (this is dependant on just how strong 13W gets). 13W still needs closely watching as it will approach land even if it doesn't make a direct landfall.

    post-1820-1218988431_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
    JTWC have upgraded 13W to a 35kt tropical storm as the system continues to look more organised on satellite imagery. TS13W is continuing west-northwestwards, under the steering influence of a subtropical ridge to the north. JTWC still indicate rapid intensification in a couple days time as outflow and sea temps are expected to be favourable. A recurve scenario east of Taiwan is forecast due to 13W approaching a weakeness in the ridge in a few days time but the storm is likely to get close enough to bring very stormy conditions to the island (this is dependant on just how strong 13W gets). 13W still needs closely watching as it will approach land even if it doesn't make a direct landfall.

    SS do you know a nice high res IR or Vis sat animation of the region? All I could find was this

    http://www.nea.gov.sg/cms/mss/aseangif/satanimate.html and she is a little off to the right (and it is low res)

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    SS do you know a nice high res IR or Vis sat animation of the region? All I could find was this

    http://www.nea.gov.sg/cms/mss/aseangif/satanimate.html and she is a little off to the right (and it is low res)

    I use this one:

    http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...sirbbmjava.html

    And IR:

    http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...sirnhcjava.html

    Link to site home page:

    http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Storm Alert issued at 17 Aug, 2008 18:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm 13W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Taiwan

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

    probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

    probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

    T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

    probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

    probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the Philippines

    probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

    Note that

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Quite low percentages there in your alert Cookie, could mean future track may be uncertain or direct landfall isn't likely which is interesting. But as I said before, if 13W gets as strong as predicted then focussing on a direct landfall wouldn't be the most wise thing to do because the storm is likely to get close enough to land to do damage. Thanks for that alert Cookie, they are really helpful.

    13W has strengthened to 40kts and has good banding features amd persistant, deep convection over the well defined centre. JMA are more reluctant to upgrade the system to a tropical storm (they estimate the current intensity to be 30kts but I think that is too low) but the system certainly looks better all the time.

    post-1820-1219011870_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

    20080817.2156.f13.x.85h_1deg.13WNONAME.40kts-993mb-160N-1352E.61pc.jpg

    Starting to show some good banding and convection, but still no really well defined central convection

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    Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

    Yep she is TS Nuri

    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP DISPLAYING

    MARKEDLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

    (LLCC) AND UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

    ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY REVEALED IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE

    WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK

    WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-

    LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC

    MODEL AIDS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK FORE-

    CAST, HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE STILL EXISTS IN THE MODEL

    INTENSITY FORECAST WITH NOGAPS REMAINING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF ALL

    DYNAMIC AIDS.

    The JTWC goes on to say that over the next 48 hrs she will intensify, but only slowly as she tracks rapidly westward. After this she is expected to slow, rapidly intensify and recurve East of Taiwan.

    The models disagree about intensity but at gusts 105knts thats puts her as still a strong Cat 3, and if previous forecasts are to be believed, she may even make Cat 5 (Previous forecast was gusts to 135knots) ... makes Fay look like an infant just out of the womb, but Fay is hitting America, so of course it is more important ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

    She's looking lovely on the vis sat image with strong banding and strong central convection visible in the 85Ghz images (although still not organised into an eye)

    post-8068-1219048548_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

    Just had a nice sat pass (89%) with the SSMI sensor. very good and deep convection at the core, nice symetrical CDO and good equatorward outflow on the animated sat. She looks better with every pass!

    post-8068-1219051310_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

    The Phillipines MO have a slightly different track to the JTWC track (and they also call her Karen) ... Ive been trying to find the Phillippine radar's but I cant locate them anywhere? Has anyone got any idea where they are?

    track.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    Yep she is TS Nuri

    she may even make Cat 5 (Previous forecast was gusts to 135knots) ...

    Winds need to reach 135kts sustained before it becomes a cat 5. This is possible I guess judging on how favourable the environment is expected to be.

    Nuri is now a 65kt typhoon, so it has been strengthening pretty quickly already. Outflow is good in all directions bar poleward, but even this is expected to improve which should cause further quick intensification. The subtropical steering ridge has also got stronger to the north which has meant a significant westwards shift in the track. This puts the Philippines in more danger than before but Taiwan is still likely to receive a fair whack from Nuri. A recurve scenario is now less likely to the east of Taiwan, which greatly increases the risk of direct landfall, though it's too early to pinpoint where just now. Ingredients are there for a big typhoon though later this week.

    post-1820-1219082035_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
    Winds need to reach 135kts sustained before it becomes a cat 5. This is possible I guess judging on how favourable the environment is expected to be.

    ...

    On the saffir scale yes, but on the Australian and Fiji scales, (which I am more used to) it is sustained at 200kph. Most of the Western Pacific uses this scale, and the Saffir scale is primarily used in Atlantic, GoM and East Pacific (close to the US). To be pedantic, I think this should actually be classified as Typhoon or a Super typhoon (which is similar in intensity to a Saffir Cat 5.) ... but that is all pedantry, as a universal scale I guess we should apply the Saffir-Simpson scale so I guess your comment is fair enough ... Either way she will be a strong storm with predicted 110knt sustained and 135knot gusts at landfall.

    As you mentioned the track has changed significantly, and HK is again an outside chance. The Northern tip of the Phillippines is going to be in for a rough ride. I still havent found any radars in the region. Do you know of any?

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    On the saffir scale yes, but on the Australian and Fiji scales, (which I am more used to) it is sustained at 200kph. Most of the Western Pacific uses this scale, and the Saffir scale is primarily used in Atlantic, GoM and East Pacific (close to the US). To be pedantic, I think this should actually be classified as Typhoon or a Super typhoon (which is similar in intensity to a Saffir Cat 5.) ... but that is all pedantry, as a universal scale I guess we should apply the Saffir-Simpson scale so I guess your comment is fair enough ... Either way she will be a strong storm with predicted 110knt sustained and 135knot gusts at landfall.

    Ah right, I understand you now, I'm the other way around, not used to the Australian scale :) . Sorry, I don't know of any radars in the region, anybody else??

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    new update and % have shot up

    Storm Alert issued at 18 Aug, 2008 18:00 GMT

    Typhoon NURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the Philippines

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours

    probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    China

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

    Taiwan

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

    probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

    probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours

    probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours

    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

    probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

    probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

    probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

    probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

    probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

    Note that

    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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    Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

    There has been quite appalling satellite coverage of Nuri, and no decent passes recently.

    Nuri has been downgraded slightly to 105knots, but will still likely clip Northern Philippines before moving on to China. Still poor poleward outflow, but that should change after she passes the Philippines where she will rapidly intensify before hitting China ...

    20080819.0430.gms6.x.vis1km.13WNURI.80kts-963mb-171N-1268E.100pc.jpg

    wp132008.08081812.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    new update

    Storm Alert issued at 19 Aug, 2008 6:00 GMT

    Typhoon NURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the Philippines

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours

    probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours

    probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    China

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours

    probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours

    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours

    probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours

    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

    probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

    probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Taiwan

    probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

    probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

    Note that

    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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