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Typhoon Nuri


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Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

Yep she has formed a nice eye (currently obscured by the CDO), with excellent convection and is only slightly lopsided.

It looks like poleward outflow is increasing as well, and it wouldnt surprise me if we soon see an open eye wall in the visible sat shots. She is ramping up.

20080819.0847.f17.x.composite.13WNURI.90kts-956mb-176N-1254E.94pc.jpg

She is currently at 90 knots or 167km/h sustained wind ... and is expected to intensify further before land interaction with the Northern Philippines slows her down before a second intensification prior to hitting China.

WTPN31 PGTW 190900

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 13W (NURI) WARNING NR 010

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

190600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 125.4E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 125.4E

Edited by opplevelse
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Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

Sustained winds up another 5 knots to 95, still no change in track, and eye is still covered by CDO.

SUBJ: TYPHOON 13W (NURI) WARNING NR 011

WTPN31 PGTW 191500

1. TYPHOON 13W (NURI) WARNING NR 011

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

191200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 124.4E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 124.4E

This picture is of the tip of the Philippines where she is likely to hit first. Lots of low lying areas, but fortunately the major storm surge should be on the west coast, away from the major population centers. but there could be some MAJOR flooding as those rivers go straight through the low lying areas.

post-8068-1219158298_thumb.jpg

Edited by opplevelse
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Nuri is bringing damaging winds and excessive rains currently to the Philippines. Despite Nuri not making a direct landfall, the typhoon is still likely to bring dangerous conditions to the Philippines. I wish the residents the best of luck as Nuri brushes by.

Nuri has weakened slightly to 90kts, due to land interaction. Favourable sea temps and enhanced, dual outflow channels should cause further strengthening once this land interaction ceases. Tracks continue to shift westwards as the models keep underestimating the subtropical ridge to the north. Landfall should occur to the southwest of Taiwan and east of Hong Kong, though this may change. Nuri should then move inland and dissipate. JTWC expect a peak of 105kts before this occurs.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

thanks for the updates guys :D

Storm Alert issued at 19 Aug, 2008 18:00 GMT

Typhoon NURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Hong Kong

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Macau

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

over land now

Storm Alert issued at 20 Aug, 2008 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

Hong Kong

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Macau

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

probability for TS is 40% currently

Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

Sorry for the lack of updates guys /gals, a little thing called a first child got in the way at about 4:30am last night! LOL

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Nuri has weakened to 80kts, but this shouldn't be a start of a trend as land interaction should stop in the next 12 hours and

the unexpected strong shear buffeting the typhoon should ease too. Peak at cat 3 is still forecast, with landfall still predicted to occur in the same place as yesterday. There is a small chance recurvature could occur before landfall meaning Nuri remains over water for the next few days but the most likely option is landfall by 36hrs and dissipation by 72hrs. Preparations for this potentially dangerous typhoon should be rushed to completion.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

new update

Storm Alert issued at 20 Aug, 2008 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Hong Kong

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 80% currently

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Well, Nuri didn't behave as expected and instead of strengthening has weakened further and barely qualifies as a typhoon. Initial intensity is 65kts, and Nuri is forecast to continue weakening as sea temps lower slightly and outflow becomes more restricted. The forecast north turn has not materialised and it seems Nuri will continue to track northwestwards and make landfall very near Hong Kong. This is quite a change from what was first forcasted, it appears most of the models greatly underestimated the strength of the subtropical steering ridge to the north which has enforced a more westerly track.

post-1820-1219339481_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

its down to a tropical storm

Storm Alert issued at 21 Aug, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Hong Kong

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Macau

probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

FINAL WARNING

Storm Alert issued at 22 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)

probability for TS is 80% currently

Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)

probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)

probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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