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What Happened to the Mediterranean climate we were promised?


Habsish

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
The climate models predict the jet will shift Northwards in Summer - as will the sub-tropical high pressure belts, so the UK should have warmer, drier summers, perhaps with intense thunderstorms thrown in. The previous 2 summers don't fit ths pattern, but they are only 2 summers and on their own are not enough to prove the climate models wrong.

I've seen plenty of predictions of a northward shift of the jet in winter, which are consistent with what's been happening with our winters over the last two decades. Correspondingly, we can expect wetter winters in north-western Britain, and to a lesser extent in the south and east. There is, however, a lot more uncertainty over changes in summer patterns- especially changes in rainfall and cloud cover. Recent climate model analysis doesn't bear out the notion that we will have Mediterranean summers, or even "continental" type summers with more warmth and sunshine and more intense convective rainfall.

As I say, we will always be at the downwind end of the Atlantic- hence Atlantic frontal depressions- and we will always be surrounded by sea, hence less extremes of temperature and less convective precipitation in summer than on the continent.

In truth, we don't know what's going to happen to our summers. Just like when in the 1990s, it looked like we were moving towards warmer, drier, sunnier summers, only for the trend for sun and dryness to reverse into the 21st century.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I agree with G-W here that any climate change is going to bring more extreme fluctuation of climate rather than a runaway warming leading to a mediterranean climate. It may well be that the overall trend warms but extreme fluctuations will inevitably lead to colder spells from time to time as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

I'd have thought it would be the other way around, isn't it the difference in temps between the Tropics and the Poles which drives the more extreme weather? If the Poles are warmer, they'd be less difference and thus less energy to generate the extremes. Or have I got that completely wrong?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

I think the poles will always go down to very low temperatures simply because of the tilt of the earth and the seasons. However there will be less cold to spread around so the zone where the warm air meets the really cold air is shifted northwards. (sounds similar to recent winters for the UK)

But I think your right as well, there will be less storms in some places as the zone shifts north.

Does that make sense. ? I might be talking cobblers.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
I'd have thought it would be the other way around, isn't it the difference in temps between the Tropics and the Poles which drives the more extreme weather? If the Poles are warmer, they'd be less difference and thus less energy to generate the extremes. Or have I got that completely wrong?

You're right, I was myself talking about the fairly short term, it may be in the long term that the climate settles, but in the short term (next 50 years) we may see some energy. At this point it could well be conjecture, but perhaps we'll have to wait and see what is to happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Well I think runaway AGW made us by-pass the med as we are now tropical...aren't we.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Well I think runaway AGW made us by-pass the med as we are now tropical...aren't we.

BFTP

Yippee!!! That means I can shop 'til I drop at this place (or until the man from the bank, he say no).

http://www.mulu.co.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Possibly the Med is a bit far off as a plausible model for a future UK climate. If you settled for central France, which is more realistic, then the past winter would have been fairly normal and this summer would be like a cool, wet summer in that region. My expectation is that climate zones will shift northwest with the adjusting magnetic field, for a while at least, although a different global regime could set in at some point and overwhelm that steady-state shifting regional model.

Our own climate here has shifted about the same in recent decades, the range of winter and summer temperatures is about what it used to be in northern Oregon. This has led to an environmental crisis for the forests of B.C., which are under assault from a rampant beetle infestation. This was always in the ecology of the province, but the beetles were often killed off by very cold winters. We haven't had such a winter here since 1969, a few near misses perhaps, leading to some mortality in the beetle population, but essentially for the past ten years they have multiplied without any checks at all.

Although climate zones can shift, variability will shift with them, so this is no guarantee of dry summers in the U.K. ... and the solar angle is not changing, so if that much rain comes down, it will not evaporate as quickly as it would from fields in central France.

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

I don't think anyone ever promised us a mediterranian climate. This was something that came about through the media, especially the BBC.

It's interesting that the pro AGW camp never, as far as I'm aware, sought to dampen this, maybe looking for an upside, unusual for them as it may seem.

Anyway, other signals may be overriding much of this so we will see what the future brings.

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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
Possibly the Med is a bit far off as a plausible model for a future UK climate. If you settled for central France, which is more realistic, then the past winter would have been fairly normal and this summer would be like a cool, wet summer in that region. My expectation is that climate zones will shift northwest with the adjusting magnetic field, for a while at least, although a different global regime could set in at some point and overwhelm that steady-state shifting regional model.

Our own climate here has shifted about the same in recent decades, the range of winter and summer temperatures is about what it used to be in northern Oregon. This has led to an environmental crisis for the forests of B.C., which are under assault from a rampant beetle infestation. This was always in the ecology of the province, but the beetles were often killed off by very cold winters. We haven't had such a winter here since 1969, a few near misses perhaps, leading to some mortality in the beetle population, but essentially for the past ten years they have multiplied without any checks at all.

Although climate zones can shift, variability will shift with them, so this is no guarantee of dry summers in the U.K. ... and the solar angle is not changing, so if that much rain comes down, it will not evaporate as quickly as it would from fields in central France.

That's fascinating. I've not heard anything about the shifting magnetic pole having an effect on the climate/local weather. Any links?

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

I started a thread ages ago about the decline of the magnetic field and it's wandering shifts, how it impacts climate and weather patterns. It's quite old so some of the links may not work, but have a trawl through, there's loads of info:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=37107

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Um, sorry, pardon my ignorance, but don't most of the models predict that even though average global temperatures are rising, there's nothing to say that the UK will get hot sunny summers just averagely warm and less sun? Basically, if anyone can come up with a concrete reason for the jet stream to have stayed this far south two summers running, it would be interesting to hear.

(goes and hides in bunker)

A BBC link from 2005, Im sure there are loads more

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/uk_news/4091068.stm

It was going to get drier and hotter, the jury is out

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Posted
  • Location: on A50 Staffs/Derbys border 151m/495ft
  • Location: on A50 Staffs/Derbys border 151m/495ft
as the planet writhes in her imposed alterations.

We'll have less of that, thankyou :huh:

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall

We've certainly enjoyed a Mediterranean climate here in Cornwall this Summer, but sadly one that is about 10ft below the surface.... :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

I have enjoyed the usual Maritime/Mediterranean climate this Summer, but only for around a third/half of the time :lol: trouble is its been cloudier and windier than usual, its not been excessively wet here.

I presume I have just been lucky regarding the rain.

Got a feeling that after the kids have all gone back to school, the sun will come out and scorch the Earth :lol: The law of sod...

In the past a Summer such as this was known as a "fickle summer" in some parts. I think I read that in the Hampshire and Isle of Wight Weather book.

Russ.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

We'll never have a mediterranean summer because of where we are situated (although London and southeast may have close resemblance). We have the outside chance of a sub-tropical climate if runaway warming was to occur, especially in the west. If we did reach sub-tropical climate proportions we would be on the most minimal scale of cool sub-tropical, just a little similar to the climate that Azores is today (although perhaps a few degrees cooler), more comparable and plausible climate would be the climate of Auckland in New Zealand, if runaway warming was to occur: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/city_gu...tml?tt=TT003100

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I doubt we'd ever remotely approach Auckland for mean annual sunshine total though.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
I doubt we'd ever remotely approach Auckland for mean annual sunshine total though.

I meant temperature in the whole but even Auckland only gets an average of around 4 hours sunshine in winter, not much more than coastal UK I guess, the rest of the year is different, plus the strength of even their winter sun is quite strong alot stronger than ours!, probably due to the clear air.

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
I meant temperature in the whole but even Auckland only gets an average of around 4 hours sunshine in winter, not much more than coastal UK I guess, the rest of the year is different, plus the strength of even their winter sun is quite strong alot stronger than ours!, probably due to the clear air.

But the maximum southern winter is about 6% weaker, as far as solar irradiation is concerned, and a few days longer due to the elliptical orbit of the earth.

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Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
We'll never have a mediterranean summer because of where we are situated (although London and southeast may have close resemblance). We have the outside chance of a sub-tropical climate if runaway warming was to occur, especially in the west. If we did reach sub-tropical climate proportions we would be on the most minimal scale of cool sub-tropical, just a little similar to the climate that Azores is today (although perhaps a few degrees cooler), more comparable and plausible climate would be the climate of Auckland in New Zealand, if runaway warming was to occur: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/city_gu...tml?tt=TT003100

More plausible is Hokitika. To get an Auckland-esque winter would surely push even runaway global warming beyond its maximum extent. That winter is partially fuelled by offshore SSTs that only quite recently have fallen below 15C. To get water that warm up to the UK in winter is pretty extreme, considering places north of about 52 degrees only just manage that in summer. They also have winter days that are about 2 hours longer than the UK.

The Auckland summer would be "easier" to replicate, but again, but if we're discussing coastal areas it's fairly difficult to get highs of 23C year in, year out during summer months. It would also be tough to get the high dewpoints they see on an almost daily basis.

Using NIWA's data we have average monthly maxima:

J F M A M J J A S O N D

23.3 23.7 22.4 20 17.4 15.2 14.5 15 16.2 17.8 19.6 21.6

19.4 20 18.7 16.7 14.2 12.3 12 12.5 13.9 15.1 16.6 18.1

The first is for Auckland, the second for Hokitika. I'd say one is quite achievable in 50 years with runaway warming.

The other, not so!

Additionally, here is the data for Manapouri:

20.7 20.8 18 14.6 12 8.3 8.2 9.6 12.6 14.9 16.1 18.9

It's a town in the South West (inland though) and those temperatures closely resemble those of the South West of England.

In fact, they are almost identical to Teignmouth around Torbay.

So to get a climate like that to switch to one like Auckland is such an enormous change.

Even pushing runaway warming to the extreme?

On the sunshine argument, Teignmouth is one of the sunniest places in winter in the UK surely. Averaging 200 hours of sunshine for the 3 months of winter. By comparison, Auckland averages 400.

So I would say Auckland, whilst not being a particularly sunny place for NZ, is still a long way ahead of coastal England in terms of winter sunshine hours.

I meant temperature in the whole but even Auckland only gets an average of around 4 hours sunshine in winter, not much more than coastal UK I guess, the rest of the year is different, plus the strength of even their winter sun is quite strong alot stronger than ours!, probably due to the clear air.

Auckland is not very sunny, averages 2100 hours a year (less than Wellington ;) ). That would be a record breaker for almost anywhere in the UK. I doubt the British Isles could see both warming winter temperatures and sunshine increasing to those sort of levels. It would be one or the other I imagine.

But the maximum southern winter is about 6% weaker, as far as solar irradiation is concerned, and a few days longer due to the elliptical orbit of the earth.

The sun here is a lot stronger in winter than it should be. The clarity of the air is quite considerable, and the vibrancy of the colours quite exceptional compared with the drab washed out equivalent back home. There is also extremely strong glare.

The higher UV in the SH (easily gets to UVI 14 on sunny summer days, and UVI 8 through cloud) though I believe is quite separate from the "nature" of the sun. We have low UV in winter, probably indicies of about 2 are the highest it will get around early July. I remember discussing this with SP a while back.

The general strength of the sun is caused by a very considerable lack of pollution. This results in less Mie scattering and more Rayleigh scattering, effectively making blue skies here noticeable more blue than in the NH. A shift towards blue wavelengths increases the energy of individual photons of sunlight. The combination of this with higher UV in summertime makes the sun truly painful during summer. As the recent Lonely Planet said of NZ "the sun kicks like a mule".

Edited by J07
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